Saturdays Weather

[Kolibear]

So what did happen to the weather on Saturday? We didn't make it to Sherburn, nor did FFF and Hersh failed to make it to Earl's Colne. I'd like to try & use the collective Pprune experiences to try piece together a weather aftercast for saturday morning.

This is my weather report

9:00 Sherburn reports blue skies.

10:00 - Cloud base of 1500' across west Essex with a layer of stratus higher up

11:00 A band of low black cloud between Bourn and Fenland extending roughly NE-SW in both directions.

12:00 Broken Cloud base up to 2400 around the Dartford Crossing.

[Wycombe]

....have a look at my post in the Sherburn PIREP thread, re. our trip up from Wycombe.

We delayed leaving Wycombe until approx 1130L. Were able to get to 2000' QNH initially, but the worst of it for us was probably between WCO and DTY - had us down to 1600'-1700' to remain VMC for most of that leg. Vis underneath was ok, but not great (Turweston available as a bolt-hole incase it closed in further).

To the N of DTY, there was a marked improvement, pretty much CAVOK by the time we passed abeam East Mids.

[Fly Stimulator]

There was a very abrupt change of weather over the Channel on Saturday. I started the day in Beaune and flew up to Le Touquet for a last French lunch before returning to England after a week away. There was a bit of cloud around in northern France, but it was basically fine and very warm. The beach at L2K was packed.

About halfway across the Channel we reached the overcast at about 1,500' with about 5 miles vis, just to emphasise that we were now back in the UK.

By the time we left Lydd for Denham at about 6pm the weather was perfectly OK again.

[Saab Dastard]

I left Fairoaks for Compton Abbas at about 14:00 UTC routing south to Petersfield, expecting to route overhead Southampton.

Cloud was broken at 2500 most of the way. Solent were very busy so I routed south to Portsmouth then planned to route west via Calshott and Beaulieu, but the cloud over Gosport dropped to about 1500.

I could actually see a bank of cloud below me between IOW and the mainland, so I decided not to descend and press on but diverted East towards Goodwood, then back to Fairoaks.

By the time I landed it had turned into a beautiful afternoon!

[Flyin'Dutch']

Well, there was a weakening cold front that moved from central England to the east and then norf onto the Norf Sea.

Arrived back from the Netherlands and weather was great all the way back with a cloud base of 3000+ ft and vis >> 10K.

Although the 214/215 forms are great for a look at the day's situation it usually helps to look at the 24-72 hour forecasts to get a bit of a feel of what is happening.

Sometimes however it is just: take it as it comes!

FD

[englishal]

One of the most accurate forecasts I've found on the internet is from NOAA Atmospheric research lab (http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html) , you can enter your lat and long and then generate "Metograms" using different forecast models, for up to 180 hrs. You can choose what to forecast....

From the one I just generated for 51N 2W I can see that Thursday afternoon its going to rain, with around 100% cloud cover, then Friday / Sat morning its going to be ok, with a bit of rain Sunday / Monday.

EA's tip for flying dan saf: Wednesday and Friday

Cheers
EA:D