Recession Vs. Flying

[VORTIME]

Hi -

Anyone here noticed the global downturn in IT and economic activity in general has impacted on flying?

Just wonder...I appear to be flying less now...

VT

[jayemm]

It has certainly affected me. I was flying 3 to 4 hour trips every three weeks up until June, and then a lack of bonus plus a shrinking business reduced the cash-flow and flying got hit first. I've done just 3 hours since June, and it has nothing to do with the weather for a change. It was painful yesterday to spend £200 for the PPL revalidation flight (great day for flying though!).

It would be interesting to hear if others are affected and how they're coping. Maybe we should start flying with fellow pilots more, to spread the cost.

[Windy Militant]

Hello Chaps,
Welcome to the world that most PPL's live in, scraping a few hours here and there, pushing the overdraft limit to keep current. Most of us bottom feeders end up on PFA types or go into group ownership. On the down side you get to see the err, less glamorous side of flying. On the plus side you get to meet some really interesting people and also flying old style aircraft is always interesting, though for the wrong reasons sometimes. And there is something deeply satisfying about being on a small grass strip listening to the gentle ticking of a cooling engine and the bird song as the sun sets. (sigh!)

[Rod1]

It has defiantly reduced my hours.

Windy, I am already in group ownership, and rapidly looking at going back to the PFA solution. Have to say the majority of people I have met, both C of A and permit have qualified for the really interesting bit. A small number for the wrong reasons though!

Rod

[EI_Sparks]

Windy,
Some of us SPL wannabe's have been trying to learn in old aircraft :)
Unfortunately, Cubs don't seem to be prevalent in Ireland, despite the fact that our countryside is one big grass field :(
There's precisely one available for training in Ireland (that I've found) and it's horridly expensive (as in, 1 hour in a PA18-150 for the price of 2 hours in a C150) :(

[VORTIME]

EI_sparks - join the Airport Flying Club in EIDW, €90 tach (not hobbs) for a C150.
http://www.airportflyingclub.com

[EI_Sparks]

Vor,
That's still steeper than KAC though.
Besides, if I have to learn in a 150, I'd rather learn in the one in KAC for sentimental reasons - it's the one dad learnt to fly in and I grew up around it :)
Plus, the airspace is less restricted and the runway is nicer :)

[VORTIME]

"That's still steeper than KAC though."

Considering it's tach time, it's half the price of 1hr hobbs in BAT or similar. Enjoy your training anyhow (&go to sligo someday)!!

[Aussie Andy]

Chatting with ATCO in the TWR at EGTB last weekend, he commented that the level of activity is definitely down on last year, and blames economic environment.

[VORTIME]

Anyone else expeirence the same?

VT

[RotorHorn]

I've been told to take a 15% pay cut in my current contract or expect 4 weeks notice. Better than my friends at Barclays (Radbrooke Hall), who got told to take 20%.

Can't complain though.(Well actually, I can). But at least I've got a contract. There's many more out there who haven't. Think I saw a figure of 78% unemployment in the IT contract sector in the North West.... :( :(

And to answer your question, my flyings gone from an hour a month over summer to about an hour every quarter - and thats only when I can get someone to split the cost with me....

I am contemplating taking the plunge and switching careers given the gloomy outlook of IT in this country - in fact its that gloomy, it even makes the commercial helicopter workplace look positively booming.....!

[matspart3]

No sign of a downturn in our traffic levels. In fact, we're about 10% up on last year even with the crappy weather. Why has the bottom fallen out of the IT world?

[RotorHorn]

BRL - forgive the non-aviation related answer..

Why has IT hit rock bottom? IMHO - trying to keep it simple and without trying to rant for twelve pages......

- post Y2K spending still catching up with companies - no money for new projects. Few contract jobs about. And companies loathe to hire ex-contractors on a permanent basis in the misguided belief that as soon as the market picks up again, we'll all upsticks and start contracting again (after receiving our free training obviously).

- IR35 - a new tax clause that sneaked into the budget un-announced in 2001, that treats freelance contractors as employees for tax purposes. We don't get any employee benefits such as holiday pay, sick pay, training, etc. but we are now having to pay tax as if we did.

- FVS - fast visa scheme. When govt was panicking about skills shortages, it created a fast track visa scheme to allow foreign nationals with the right skills entrance to the country quickly. Now have a glut of workers with few jobs. Its a buyers market.

So we have loads of people with computer skills, little contract work, and no permanent work....

time to go flying!! :D :D

BRL - delete/edit post as appropriate - it was good therapy just writing it!!

[You want it when?]

Response (some corrections) to RotoHorn...

Post Y2K IT depression yes, but the economy as a whole is down, which means that there is little IT development - key skills Seibel Oracle etc.. are still in demand, and getting good rates. Project work is going on but the hiring managers can be pickier.

Historically contractors do run for IT permanent jobs when their income dries up, and then once the market gets better they do leave. Having been on both sides of the fence for a long time - I know this happens. As a senior manager who recruits at all levels - I avoid hungry contractors like the plauge - Sorry.

IR35 - You are taxed on the whole income less 5% I believe, so contractors can no longer off-set so much in expenses and dividends. In reality worst case you have lost about a further 20% of your disposable income to tax. Contractors are still paid considerably more than an permanent staff member - so it balances out.

FVS - Yes there is a glut for the lower end jobs, but that just means that salary / rates are settling back to where they should be for the deployed skill.

Don't get me wrong - I've some contract pals who have been out of work for months, and I throw them development work when I can. But the contract / freelance gravy train derailed a long time ago. I'm glad I got off before the masses :D Not a good excuse to give up flying though - most mere mortals are doing PPL flying for less than £30K PA and a credit card.

EDIT - On topic...
GA at Cranfield seems to be a lot less, with the circuit being pretty empty these days. But that could be the lousy WX. Cost of light aircraft and of group shares in the trade comics seems pretty consistant so I think it's only a minor downturn.

[Evo]

<offtopic>
Something that I keep hearing is that the skill requirements have changed with the economic climate but the contractors haven't kept up. Blue-sky projects are thin on the ground at the moment, and the first question you hear when you talk to customers is "how long until we get a return on investment?" - the big things are projects that save money and save it next month, not next year. Know the technology and know how to deliver it and it's a very healthy business to be in at the moment. I know a couple of contractors working with stuff I help develop that are making a killing because there is more work than there are people to do it. However, if you've nothing but generic VB or C to offer then times are very hard.
</offtopic>

<ontopic/> sorry BRL ;)

[vancouv]

Don't completely agree with everything said about contractors - I was out of work for six months and am now on a very low rate in the South East where I definitely earn less than an equivalent permie.

Fortunately I am not a 'big mortgage flash car' contractor, so had some money saved which I used to finish my PPL while off - would probably still be trying to complete it otherwise thanks to the great British weather.

Flying is very expensive, and if you have family commitments (which I don't) I don't know how most people manage.

[foghorn]

The bottom fell out of the IT contract market in June 2001. There are lots of reasons why this happened, including post Y2K downturn in corporate IT budgets, the end of the dotcom boom. Rumblings from Europe regarding new rights for temporary workers and a hideous newmess of a freelance tax known as IR35 all added to the problems. Many of the big IT consultancy arms had padded out their workforces with contractors: as orders fell off, they first axed the contractors: the main one of these being IBM's consultancy arm (who as you can imagine are a huge player), who got rid of all their contractors in pretty much one fell swoop and put a contractor ban in force that is still in place. This put thousands of contractors on the market and shifted the whole market dynamics from a sellers to a buyers market.

Things are starting to pick up now, and as there always was there is a good market for those with rarer specialised skills and experience. Rates will pick up also, as the huge oversupply of contractors to contract openings has meant that rates have been pushed unsustainably low (IR35 has not helped here). There is currently no premium in rates over permanent salaries, often the reverse, despite the fact that contractors live with more uncertainty/lack of employee rights and benefits.

To be honest I think that an IT contracting recession was necessary to purge the excesses of the boom, as recessions are in all other economic sectors. Contracting should exist to offer companies a chance to obtain people with specialist skills on a discrete project basis whom it does not make financial sense for a company to hire full time. Prior to the downturn every man and his dog was a contractor - even all manner of junior posts (e.g. junior desktop support engineers - not high-skill nor project-based). This IMHO was not sustainable and many companies have moved to rectify this, hiring trusted contractors as permies, cutting costs with lower salaries. However some companies have been so keen in doing this that it is now overdone, IMHO, and as soon as things pick up many people will jump ship.

I'm convinced that the late nineties IT boom fed a GA boom in this country, particularly in the PPL training sector. It will be interesting to see what happens from here - however a certain major school;) has told me that they have seen a large downturn in business this year.

[VORTIME]

Because of the market segment into which young gradutes enter (IT), there will be a rapid downturn the number of freshly minted pilots over the years. It will no longer be feasible to expeirence the freedom of flight without feeling a major dent in real income. It will no longer be possible to get a PPL for the love of flying to many.

Remember that those earning £30,000 as web designers are now back on £12,000 - if even employed. Those expeirenced developers (SQL, Oracle, Sun) maybe £25,000 - still a long way off what it was.

It goes back to the "giffen good" principle, thus being Saturday afternoon football matches, cinema etc as form of entertainment and the demand for flying hours will deminish.

The IT industry is DIRECTLY related to GA. Everyone or at least 90% of members in my flying club are employed in IT, those who I share hours with outside of the club are involved in IT - many of whom can't afford to keep current.

The affect is that over the few years, the annual turnover of pilots will decrease slightly as more will work right up to the retirement age to make up for failed pension investment. However, there will be a major decline in graduates and mostly likely an increase in the number of hours flown & personal jets.

The banks simply ain't going to give £60,000 credit to someone earning half nothing in an unstable industry to faciliate them entering a similarly unstable airline industry. Those who are already trained may benefit from the latter as the pool will shrink from less trainees, more people under pressure to repay loans getting alternative employment etc.