Is now the Time to start learning to Fly!!

[Tim_donovan]

Is now the a bad time to start on PPL and work through to ATPL?
Should this be done in UK or is US cheaper?

Words of wisdom welcomenull

[LGL737]

If I had to start my training now, I would do it. Once you get your PPL and ATPL this crisis may well be over and there'll probably be a huge demand for pilots...(I wish).
Whether you want to do your training in the US or Europe depends on where you want to live.
If you want to live and fly in Europe get the JAR license, but If you want and have the right to live/work in the US go for the FAA.

Good Luck
Rgds
LGL

edited for spelling

[ 27 September 2001: Message edited by: LGL737 ]

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Perhaps it might be best to wait for 3 months. As the large colleges continue to graduate students into a frankly stagnant recruitment market more and more people will complete flying instructor ratings. This increase in supply will very probably drive down wages and make courses slightly cheaper. In addition you might well find that schools and FI's value your custom more highly as the chill winds of slowdown sweep through the industry.

Nothing stopping you getting hold of the books in the meantime and completing your studies thoroughly and taking a few of the exams.

Good luck,

WWW

[QUERY]

It is an excellent time to learn to fly.
Begin by calling all the big JAA PPL places in UK and USA, who advertise in Flyer and Pilot. Ask them how much it would cost for a complete course starting on a date to suit you. They must want customers NOW= good value for you but make sure you know what their price includes/excludes- accommodation, books, landing fees, night rating, R/t etc.

It must be the worst time for decades to embark on ATPL. Not only are job prospects bad but some places which rely on professional training will be disappearing with your money.

[JB007]

Yeah...i'd go for it!
Nothing stopping you getting a PPL and some experiance, then maybe start the ATPL writtens as WWW says...by the time that stage is complete the market place maybe very different...

When the market does change i'm quite sure the pilot shortage will be worse than before due to the lack of training going on during the "slump" period.

[ 28 September 2001: Message edited by: JB007 ]

[Buckred]

You could try comming to Australia. Its flying as usual over here and with a conversion rate of .32p to the Au$1, a $45,000 course including cpl, mecir and atpl can be quite attractive.

Some schools also give caa(is that what you call your aviation authority?) endorsed courses so there will be no need for conversion.

Best of luck with whatever you decide to do.
Bucky

[Cardinal Puff]

There's always South Africa. With the lack of infrastructure in Africa aviation will always be in demand. A multi engine commercial ticket with instrument and instructor ratings would set you back about 13000 Sterling. The school in question also offers a 12 month employment contract as an instructor on completion. I've since moved on to bigger and better things but had a pretty good time getting qualified. The cost of living in SA is pretty good for those with foreign currency. Beer at 50p a bottle in restaurants is a pretty good start.

The crime and violence you hear about, while higher than that in Europe, is not really found in the smaller towns as much as in the major centres.

Unfortunately no JAA though...

[EGDR]

Cardinal Puff

Do you know what the score is with regards to going to S.Africa with a CPL/IR & IR gained in the UK ? Does it cost much to convert ?

[Cardinal Puff]

EGDR

You'd need to pass the examinations for CPL which include the IR exams. Cost about 200 Sterling if you pass them all first go. Prep and check ride for CPL and MEIR in the region of 1200 Sterling if you're already rated multi engine. If not add another 400 Pounds. With the exchange rate being what it is you could probably slip enough change from that for your medical. Accomodation would have to be arranged but the bloke who runs the school has a large house with pool and barbecue area about 5 minutes from the airport. He usually puts students up at his place. Just hope you're not vegetarian and teetotal.

There's also a possibility you can validate your JAA licence by writing the Air Law and Procedures examination, getting a medical and doing a check ride with an examiner. Rough estimate around 700 Pounds.

Good luck...

[rebeccadblake]

I would have to agree with LGL737, he makes the most sense, i have also been thinking this for the past few days..

I am doing ppl and certainly this crisis wont stop me, + we have a big advantage as it seems soooo many people are putting of their training, DUMB idea as when this dies down the flight schools will be packed and getting a place will be limited, as many peeps are cancelling there course we will have more of teachers attention, therfore it may be a little easier to pass all those horrible ATPL's thoreys.

I am planning on doing the ATPL course @ sft in April, and NOTHING will stop me from forfilling my dream!!!!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Food for thought - either way - can be found at:
http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=2&t=011037


WWW

[bluff]

Go for it!

Hopefully by the time you have finished your training things will have improved. If you delay too long your own circumstances may prevent you from doing it.

Having done my training in the USA I would strongly recommend it, working over there however is a little different, they get very strict on employment.

One further piece of advice is to hold onto your money. Whether you go abroad or stay here, only give the school enough money for a months training in advance. They may get grumpy about this, but hold your ground. I have two friends who lost a lot of money when the school stopped trading with no advance warning, even though there were plenty of students. Good luck!

[B747wideboy]

Go for it Tim. Flying as a career isn´t the most rational choice but it if you love it then you have to try it. If it doesn´t pan out then those are the breaks but you´ll never regret giving it your best shot.

YOu have to remember that it isn´t a decision for the head, it´s one for the heart.

[foghorn]

And just to add to what cardinal says, South Africa is an absolutely cracking place to fly - I did a load of hour building and multi-training there and I remember my time with fondness. Or should I say it is 'lekker'.

And what's more the wine is the best in the world IMHO.

cheers!
foggy

[purple haze]

message for www

i would just like to say, that you are not the doomsayer, your advice has always been very sound and realistic.

all i can infer from your posts are that you should just hold on a while and see how things develop and then committ yourself. theres nothing wrong with that and anyone who says otherwise is being unrealistic.

i have followed your posts from the beginning and i can say that your advice has always had our best interests at heart.

im not ass licking and i know that many people feel the same, and it was perhaps time you were effort was appreciated.

kind regards


PH

[GAF4139]

purple haze

I couldn't agree more.


GAF4139

[Gumshoe]

TimD,

Lets look at the facts.

The airline industry is about to go into global meltdown.
The airlines are said to be announcing redundancys this week in addition to the 38% cut in flight deck at virgin albeit 70 of which engineers.
All carriers have frozen recruitment and oversupply of 3-4000 hours looms.

Am I sounding pessimistic?

The truth is only a crazy person is going to get a second mortgage based on this market. However there is a possible upside:-

If the americans start flying again, the long haul carriers may again pick up.

If they dont for a long time (6-8 months) the other 450 virgin pilots will probably end up on the market within a year.

If another incident happens in the next few months. Flying will not be a good career choice!

Only someone who can afford to be out of work for 4 to 5 years afterwards as I was after my ATPLs should go for it in present conditions. At least give it a few months to see the aftermath settle down.

Good Luck.

[scroggs]

Gumshoe,
from your post, I'd guess you are a recent Virgin Sun A320 recruit who is unlikely to survive Virgin's current cull. I'm really sorry if that's the case, and I hope things turn out well for you. As a Classic pilot at VS I may very well be in the same position. However, I question some of your assumptions.
The global airline industry is not in meltdown. It is going through a very intense period of readjustment after the WTC event, much of which would have been necessary in the near future anyway due to the cyclical downturn the industry was, and is still, experiencing. This downturn shows no real signs of being worse than (or even as bad as) the 87-94 recession, and the travelling public's memory is short, as the Gulf War proved.
Even should the Americans boycott international air travel for an extended period (say, more than 6 months), I don't agree with your contention that Virgin would go under. Prior to the current restructuring process, VS was 60% dependent on the North Atlantic traffic. After this process, the proportion will be more like 35% and could be reduced further - or, more likely, increased again. Loads to the rest of the VS destinations are good, and I've no doubt that some aggressive marketing will improve them. Significantly, VS has no Middle East destinations! VS also seems to have a good debt vs capital situation, and a fairly efficient operation when compared to other international lines.
So, while you (and I) may be feeling pretty sore at the moment, there is no obvious reason to predict the end of airtravel as we know it, or the end of Virgin.
Everyone should calm down, watch what happens, and make rational judgements on their future when the dust has settled somewhat.

[skysheriff]

i agree with gumshoe. Its already difficult in a normal market. This hopeless to start training in the current market if you expect a job. You will compete with 4000 hours jet captains. Believe me there is no way you can get their experience with the exception of the forces.
But the airlines are currently probably in their worst recession for 20 years.
Many MAJOR world airlines are on the brink of financial collapse (among others due to insurance premiums). Many companies were already in financial dire straits. The 11th of september will have long-term effects on aviation : security, insurance,...
Security does not come for free.

[presbycusis]

Let's not forget the way this thread started - the guy was considering starting out! Anyone starting now will not be qualified for over a year, probably two. No-one on this forum can predict what the industry will be like then. In fact, to take the optimistic view, looking at past history of downturns in the industry, anyone starting out right now will be in an excellent position when they finish, because that's when the airlines will realise they need pilots!

Notwithstanding that view, no-one really knows - so go with the heart. If you want to do it, do it! :p

[Tim_donovan]

Well,

I certainly was not expecting this many comments and I thank you all for your feedback.
Please bear in mind this is the first stage and I still don't have my medical yet!! (can you yet this from your local doctor or do I have to go to the CAA?)

I think the idea of South Africa sounds good and will need to do a little research into it.

Question in all honesty will it take a lot to convert UK ATPL JAR or will it be fairly resaonable?

Further more I have not even started fly yet!

Is it worth me doing some sort of mini test to see if I am capable? (Didn't get many GSCE'S and no A Levels.....)

Once again thanks to you all for your words of wisdomnell.. :cool: :) :D

[Cardinal Puff]

TimD

South Africa a good option but I'll say it again, NO JAA! To convert will be pretty close to the cost of doing it in the UK and the cost of air tickets should even that out. If you have no intention of flying for a European carrier then by all means come and do the ICAO licence here in good ol' SA. If you want an airline job back home in the UK rather do the whole JAA hoop jumping excercise there and use the cheaper aircraft and better weather in South Africa purely for hour building. As an example, if you come out here with a friend to build hours and take a C172 for your exclusive use for a week or two, the cost should be lower than you'd pay in the UK and you'd have a pretty good holiday touring South Africa by air. The current exchange rate is definitely in your favour.

Another thing to think about is the fact that if you can get a job with a South African contract company working outside SA you won't need a work permit for SA and can operate from the UK into wherever you're needed. I had a First Officer (now a captain) who did just that and he built around 700 hours in his first year with the company. Pay is along SA lines so you're not going to get rich but, heck, we don't do it for the money....... or do we?

[pushback_and_start]

well the options are

[fibod]

What a lot of common sense from Scroggs. Crises always loom larger at the time than in retrospect. While there will be carriers (and schools) who go under during this hiccup, there will be others who come to the fore during the lean times. EasyJet are reporting year-on-year increases in passenger numbers. Many airline recruiters are looking forward to the other side of this dip and realising that, once the ‘pool’ of displaced pilots is used up, there will still be a shortage of Qualitypilots. The truth is that there has not been a pilot shortage during the last few years – just a Qualityshortage.

The short sighted carriers will drop their support for the an-initio stream. Those with foresight know that people will continue to retire during the recession, indeed some good people will take the opportunity for early retirement. The brakes on growth for someone like EasyJet have been lack of Captains (that’s why their entry requirements have been higher than ‘stagnant’ airline; every FO recruit has to be capable of moving to the LHS in a very short time), lack of routes and lack of slots. All of a sudden, there are lots of experienced pilots on the market, and competitors dropping routes and slots daily.

Ask yourself these questions; if you were a senior manager at a low cost carrier:

• Facing these opportunities and increased passenger demand, would you plan to grow, stand still, or shrink?
• Assuming your answer is grow, will you recruit all potential captains as before (expensive?) or equal numbers of ready made captains and first job FOs (lower cost?)

Watch this space for dramatic changes in the short-haul carrier market and the recruitment market, and put yourself in a position to benefit. But please bear in mind that desperate schools will take your money and train you to pass the licence come what may. Not everyone is cut out for this profession. Position of a licence is not a ticket to a job, it’s a given; you have to be a good prospect. Qualitypilots will find employment. Those who struggle against all odds to achieve an IR pass, taking many attempts to get through the JAA exams and the CPL and IR may have an equal struggle in finding an employer.

So my advice is, before you part with your money, go through a selection process, and enrol only on a course that is (still) backed by the airlines. Alternatively, follow the Flying Instructor route, preferably with a commercial rather than PPL school. It will be tempting to take a low cost route during a recession, but you will be competing with the best when it comes to chasing that job.

[Capt Pit Bull]

Every now and again I contribute on one of these threads. Usually, somebody asks a usual 'how to become a pilot / am I too old' type questions and 99% of the replies say 'Go for it' etc etc. I'm usually the sole voice saying not to do it.

Still, people keep going for it inspite of the reasons not too. I'm going to stick my neck out here and reverse my usual view and say if you really, really have to be a pilot, then now / near future is likely to be a good time to train. But whatever you do, don't pay up front, however tempting the deal.

CPB

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I think the earliest right time to be passing the last hurdle (IRT) and entering the job market will be about February 2003.

The rest of 2001 hiring is frozen solid.

It will take all of 2002 to soak up unemployed pilots, the glut of ex-cadets and the usual self sponsored students.

This assumes no further bad news.

If you pitch at Feb 2003 then your training would probably start a year before that for either the modular or integrated route. Perhaps 6 months earlier for distance learning ATPL theory, i.e. now.

Actual flying training should be completed in as near to a continuous block as possible. Funds allowing.

Good luck, personally I would do nothing more than start on the books for another 6 months. We are in uncharted waters and its far far preferable to be racing to enter a rapidly recovering market than be left holding a licence and ratings that need to be kept current whilst you slowly lose the flying skill that you expensively acquired but are unable to maintain in a totally stagnant market...

Cheers,

WWW

[SuperTed]

WWW,

What do you mean by a 'continuous block' in your above post? The date given of Feb 2003 is the information we have now. It is likely that there will be a ground war of some sort, similar but worse than the actual Gulf war, hence I think you could possibly add another 2 years on to that date. Airlines and the economy hate uncertainity!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Superted - yes if things get worse than present then I would extend that earliest target date.

By continuous block I mean it is best to avoid doing - say - a PPL now and then delaying a year or so before embarking on the commercial licence. It should be possible to do the PPL, hours, CPL and IR all within 4 - 5 months and this is preferable from a continuity and recency point of view i.e. wait and do your flight training in a big hit rather than dribble it out over years.

Cheers,

WWW

[scroggs]

Superted,
I find it very unlikely that there will be a campaign comparable to the Gulf in any way whatsoever. The Gulf involved some 725,000 ground troops (including 300 Afghan Mujahadin, incidentally) and many millions of tons of logistical support for a ground war on a massive scale in relatively benign terrain to eject an invading force from illegally-held territory. The campaign, such as it might be, in Afghanistan will be mainly a special forces affair to find and eliminate relatively few people in the very difficult terrain of that country, although it will probably start with air and missile strikes against known terrorist encampments. There also may well be 'assistance' to the Northern Alliance in their ongoing fight with the Taliban, but there ain't gonna be any big war over there - there's nothing left to fight for. Once this becomes obvious to the commentators in CNN and the BBC, the market makers will start to get less jittery and, commercially, things will start to return to normal. The biggest risk to economic recovery is a further terrorist outrage - hence the nervous press reaction to the Greyhound bus incident, the shooting down of the TU154 over the Black Sea, and the Alliance Air 'hijack'.

[ 07 October 2001: Message edited by: Scroggs ]

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Gotta back Scroggsy there 100% on that analysis.

Barring any further terrorist attacks things should be back on an even keel this time next year. The US economic slowdown though will probably mean the market remains sluggish for a while after that though.

In essence I think WTC has just squeezed 18 months of pain into 3 weeks in the airline world.

Cheers,

WWW

[JetMouse]

WWW

In your second last post you said:


By continuous block I mean it is best to avoid doing - say - a PPL now and then delaying a year or so before embarking on the commercial licence. It should be possible to do the PPL, hours, CPL and IR all within 4 - 5 months and this is preferable from a continuity and recency point of view i.e. wait and do your flight training in a big hit rather than dribble it out over years.


But i thought you could only start your ATPL groundschool once you had a PPL licence - so you would have to have a minimum break of at least 6 months between PPL and CPL/IR - isn't this still the case?

[topunicyclist]

WWW.....I (http://WWW.....I) was interested to read your point about Feb 2003.....that (to me) implies that in the best case scenario, starting a fully integrated course in approx six months' time might not be too bad an idea.

As things have gone down steeply in the past few weeks, are they expected to rise again steeply on the other side?

freaky - i didn't expect that when I typed WWW...... (http://WWW......) it would give a link to a non-existent website

[ 08 October 2001: Message edited by: topunicyclist ]

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

JetMouse - yeah you are kindof correct. But you could get the ATPL course notes very soon after PPL if you wanted to...

WWW

[fibod]

JetMouse, you are exactly correct. A full-time ATPL theory course takes 6 months, and most people find a distance learning course takes much-much longer. Therefore, you'll not be able to do it all within 4-5 months as WWW suggests. The hours building (from PPL to 150 TT) CPL, IR and MCC can be done as a block once you have complete the theory.

Good luck!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

It nice to go stright from your PPL Trevor Thom type books to the ATPL books whilst you are flying. This implies getting hold of the ATPL books ahead of time when on the modular route. Which is what I think is worthwhile.

On the Integrated courses you are doing ATPL study every other day between flying and in blocks inbetween - it is this mix that it is best to emulate if you can. And stuff the rules about having built your hours before you can enrol on a distance course - thats an anacronysm well due for the chop. Besides - the ATPL police don't come around checking...

Its not a big issue one way or the other. Its more that I have seen people suffer becuase their 170 odd flying hours have been spread very thinlky over 2 years and its just very difficult to stay sharp with that low time and low recency.

WWW

[Tim_donovan]

www/Sroggs,

Surely then you could get the ppl out of the way fly for fun (costs money I know) and then in about 6 to 8 months start the flight training for atpl whether in UK/US/South Africa (so many different comments differcult to choose) in the mean time get hold of as many crazy text books as possible!!

Are you confused I seem a little...

More beer fatter women... :cool:

[scroggs]

TimD,
yes, why not. That's a perfectly sensible strategy. And while you're doing your PPL you can start to get a grasp of what all those 'crazy text books' are, and what you face in trying to study for your ATPL! Best of luck.

[Capt Pit Bull]

Rich Tea,

Sorry for not replying earlier, been away.

In a nutshell it comes down to supply and demand in the training world. Times when the airlines are recruiting are characterised by:

Lack of instructors as people move into the airlines.
Lack of test slots and course dates as people finish off licences in a hurry.
Lack of interest in individual students by those training organisations that have groups of airline spondored students.

These factors tend to make training more difficult, expensive, and lengthy.

Whereas when the industry is struggling the reverse tendancies apply, supply and demand works in your favour and you are then ready to be employed immediately things pick up. In the mean time you can get aerial work to keep things ticking along.

Remember my whole post though - I do not recommend flying as a career - its just to unstable. But if you really have too, now may be a good time to start.

CPB

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You need an ICAO PPL before you can enroll on an ATPL theory course. Nothing stops you getting hold of the books earler mind.

As for now being a good time to train. Well yeah the school will be less busy so potentially your instructor will be less harrassed than before. Mind you, if you are his only paycheck that month, there is pressure to do "one more trip just to polish you up a bit". Decent places won't make this an issue but the pressure is there...

The real issue is will you train and be left with nothing to do with the licence afterwards for so long that you lose your flying skills or cannot afford to keep your IR current.

Remember its going to cost you about £1700 a year to keep your Class One, Multi and IR tickets in working order. This will easily outstrip any savings you are able to beat out of your chosen FTO becuase they need the business...

The chances of gaining employment doing Aerial Work are wafer thin. Aerial Work is often hazardous and requires experience. You are operating with no Ops manual, no backup and often not much in the way of equipment. Employers will need 1000hrs just to insure you on the aircraft in most cases. <40hrs P1 time and a Deep Frzn ATPL is going to impress nobody in GA yet perversely CAN get you a Boeing RHS. Thats the way of the world.

The school are graduating 450 people already this year. They join people already holding licences looking for work. Nothing much is going to happen to them all in 12 months. IF you start Integrated now then you'll be joining that lot. I'd want another year for a lot of the backlog to have cleared either by jobs soaking them up or people jacking the whole thing in or people getting rusty and not passing the sim rides that you will be better prepared for having just finished your MCC etc.

I note that anecdotally BA's loads seem to be recovering. Boads well.

WWW

[ 12 October 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]

[fibod]

WWW I believe it has now changed (JAR FCL-1 NPA 14) to JAA PPL, rather than ICAO, needed before enrolling on a groundschool course.

Beware paying lots for books without enrolling on a course. You cannot take the exams unless you have completed an approved course, which will, of course, come with books....

[Delta Wun-Wun]

AMS,
Has as been stated above you need a PPL to start a ATPL Distance Learning Course.It would be wise to get a class one medical as well first.
You could save yourself £80 and get the class one straight away instead of getting a class two.
Distance learning is going to take about 12 mths to complete,a lot can happen in 12 mths.
I fly about once every 4 to 5 weeks whilst studying.Then once the exams are out the way I will hour build more often,but practise stuff that you will do for the CPL skills test.
Take an Instructor up every 10 to 15 hrs to make sure you are going in the right direction.Cheaper than getting to the end of a CPL and being told you need an extra **hrs at £**!!/hr.

[OptionTwo]

Interesting link regarding flight training:
http://www.observer.co.uk/Distribution/Redirect_Artifact/0,4678,2-573690,00.html

O2