An Assessment Of The Current Crisis

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Righty oh. Firstly to all those calling me Nostradamus, Grim Reaper etc. and telling me to wind my neck in etc. etc. ALL I have advised here is that any Wannabe able to do so postpone for 3 - 6 months the expensive chunk of their training. Nothing else. So I think you are over-reacting to my postings. I stand by my advice.

Secondly, I have Wannabes best interests at heart and it dissapoints me that some people assert otherwise. I note with some incredulity and alarm that people such as Send Clowns who works for a majot Flying School is telling people:

"Max, don't be so daft. This is the time to start, as most reckon the job market to pick up in a few months, it takes more than a year to train, and there were previous forecasts of shortfalls. Since the schools are not putting enough students through this is still likely."

Yeah, my @rse.

Thirdly, everyone here has the right to their opinion including me. I am interested to hear yours but simply asserting the view that things will pick up without any kind of rationalisation to back that up is kinda pointless. I 'hope' it picks up to.


So lets summarise what we know:


a) Virgin to lay off 160 pilots

b) Gill to to lay off 60 pilots

c) BA have around 300 pilots with nothing to do and their status is unknown

d) BA have cancelled all recuitment and the guys on the TEP will not be offered jobs upon graduation

e) British Midland cadets will similarly not be offered jobs upon graduation

f) Britannia have cancelled all the people they have offered jobs to in the last approx 4 month, i.e. those that have not completed type training.

g) Airtours and Air2000 Autumn sponsorship is cancelled.

What I *hear* from my contacts and could well prove to be idle specualtion is:

i) A high quality Aer Lingus insider tells me they are expecting an announcement today for 1,800 redundancies and all 48 cadets currently under training will be cancelled.

ii) Scrubbed.

iii) JMC will cancel all people they have taken on but who have not completed type training.

iv) Recruitment to all the previous regionals (Brymon, Britsh Regional) now under the BACE umbrella is cancelled in the same manner as BA proper.

v) Aer Lingus will make 120 pilots off the bottom of the seniority list redundant in the next 2 months.

vi) All British European recruitment cancelled in the same manner as BA.


----------------------------


To my eyes that looks pretty much like the demand side is closed off. ANY jobs with airlines still recruiting which may include the low cost sector is going to be satisfied by guys leaving Virgin and Gill.

Casting an eye askance at the supply side we see approx figures of:

150 BA cadets
40 British Midland cadets
50 Aer Lingus cadets
26 Airtours cadets
---
266ish ex-sponsored cadets on the loose...

Plus of course approx 300 students currently on full time courses self sponsored.

So 266 + 300 = 566 Frzn ATPL graduates to hit the market in the next <12 months.

Not counting the guys training under the more drawn out modular route. (est. 200)

And not counting flying instructors and people already graduated looking for jobs. (est. 350)

Discounting completly people training in Member JAA states that have the right to work here (i.e. 14 countries) and hold a valid license (i.e. JAA just like you and I).

So one could argue we have 566 + 200 + 350 = 1,116ish people looking for jobs 12 months from now IF we accept the argument that any hiring over the next 12 months will be satisfied by the Virgin and Gill boys.

Now. Of that 1,116 people, lets say 116 are hopeless cases and no threat to your job prospects anyway.

Out of the 1,100 remaining at least 200 will not be able to keep their ratings alive for >12 months due to them being destitute they have to leave the market - leaving 900.

Out of the 900 remaining at least 200 will have well paid jobs they can go back to to wait for the upturn and keep their ratings and recency in good shape. They are temporarily out of the market.

Of the 700 remaining who can *just* about manage to keep their ratings current whilst stacking shelves perhaps 200 will find work as instructors or doing other aerial work for minimal money like parachute dropping.

Leaving 500 people chasing every one job that gets advertised in 12-24 months time.

Of those 500 at least 100 will be very wealthy and able to pay for type ratings.

*If* the jobs market returns to normal which means hiring about 200 low time pilots a year into any kind of job involving an aircraft heavier than 4 tonnes then those people training now, either starting or finishing, a one year course, have between two and half and three and a half years to wait post graduation for their first job.

There is of course a wide margin for improvement on those figures if this crisis eases rapidly. Equally there is a wide margin the other way.

Those are the numbers as I see them today. I - like you - cannot predict the coming war or peace nor the state of the world economy over the next 5 years. So lets stop trying - its pretty pointless and the threads get us nowhere.

Now I would like to step away from the mildly empirical and revert to the anecdotal. Indulge me or criticise me as you see fit:

In several threads I have drawn on my observations of a self sponsored course of students that went through BAE in Jerez last year that I had rather a lot to do with and now count, in some cases, as good friends. Of the stronger end of the course post-graduation one got BA mainline, one got Britannia and two got LoganAir. The BA and Britannia guys have both been told their services are no longer required, good luck with your future careers. The Loganair guys are OK.

Up until WTC I was bullish about Wannabe prospects citing the fact that self sponsored guys I knew were getting quality jobs within 2 months of graduating. Plus sponsorship was becoming easier as airlines struggled to attract as many high calibre applicants as they once did.

The fact that TODAY all the SPONSORED guys at Jerez *and* Oxford (BA, BMi, Aer Lingus and Airtours) face the very distinct possibility of 'no job' in addition to the possibly bleak immediate future of all self sponsored students meens I *have* to be very bearish about advising people to start training.

I wish it were otherwise.

There is an argument that has some relevance here and I heard it well expressed by Capt PPRuNe himself who started training in 1991 during the last crisis. It goes like this. You train when others don't and you therefore get a lot of attention from the school and the instructors as you are a very valued customer.

You graduate and its hard but if you can find any kind of work you will survive and be building hours. When the upturn starts you have the contacts to notice and you can get in on the ground floor. You will then get a 1st job which is not great but often provides great training for your later career. Typically a lot of hand flying raw data, taking **** and getting the job done (CRM). When things take off you are at the head of the queue and get the job you dreamed off. The Good Times roll and you do well rising rapidly through the seniority ranks as people get hired behind you. When the NEXT recession comes and pilots start being layed off *you* are relatively high up on the serniority list and thus reasonable safe from reducndancy. You survive and by the time the next slowdown arrives in another 10 years you are a veteran captain and more or less bulletproof unless your airline collapses.

In the long game then those that can could take advantage. I would have to say though that perhaps this thinking is best suited to a more mature person who has less personal debt to finance like perhaps the career changer rather than the younger Wannabe. But its a thought.

What I fear is "fighting the last war" syndrome on this forum. I mean NO disrespect to IFR and others whatsoever - indeed I thank them for their time and the value of their lifelong insight in bothering to make posts here - but I believe things are different today because the industry is so much bigger than it was even 10 years ago.

Basically in the early 90's there were 200 people at OATS 120 at BAE and CABAIR/SECOAT and 90 at what as to become SFT. You can double those figures today. You can also double the number of pilots who will be surplus to requirement becuase every airline there is is either twice the size they were in 1991, bust, or have been founded since the early 1990's (Airtours <biggest UK Charter airliner> Ryanair <biggest low cost airline - and worth MORE than BA today... easyJet, Go). So you will have twice the number of layoffs coupled with twice the number of students entering the market IF the conditions are no worse and no better than 1991.

In addition you have the totally Left Field introduction of JAA. This means of course that at the moment anyone holding a JAA licence AND coming from an EU state can apply for a UK airline job. THIS was NOT the case in the in early 90's or before. OF course *you* have the same rights, errr, you DO speak Dutch/German/Belgian.

Plus in the early 90's a lot of pilots escaped off to Asia which was still doing well and hiring. This time its Europe that is the best spot to be and that ain't looking too rosy as discussed.


So thats it. My thoughts as of today.

I would be delighted to read cogent arguments refuting my overall - lets face it - negative line.

Remember, part of my role here is to *stimulate* debate. However on this issue my own mind is pretty clear. Perhaps I am wrong, if so, please tell me.

Good luck to all you guys out there caught up in this, particularly Rob, John, Russell, Tony, Mike and Steve - hang in there,

Regards, the

Wee Weasley Welshman ;)


ps In 5 years time all this will very probably be a bad memory.

[ 22 September 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]

[crackerjack]

WWW,

A superbly written and reasoned argument, I feel I can't really do justice to it with a quick reply.

But, while I think about it (!) Would you not agree that what you are doing is extrapolating an accountant's short term negative and pessimistic view over a much longer period. These guys who are making the decisions are focused by the next quarter's results, not on what could be a 40 year career for someone just starting out.

You are correct when you say the industry is very different now than it was 10 years ago, but that also works in the positive sense, flying is a mass market now, everybody "jets" off to sunny places now, not just the rich and famous. I really can't see this changing in the medium or long term. Which is the timeframe that people starting their flying careers now need to think in.

More soon,

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

That varies by definition of what yuo mean by current.

*My* definition would be a raw data single engine approach with competent calls. At least 25hrs GH stick time per annum might be a lesser definition.

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Hmm, I'll talk in the morning - at the moment I am knackered from a BFS - STN - NCE - STN run this evening.

WWW

[ 22 September 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]

[Hightower]

If the scenario that WWW describes is true and a large number of wannabe's suspend there training or stop completely, what will the effect be on flying schools, instructors and the price of training.

[Luke SkyToddler]

Weasley, you forgot to include in your analysis the Ansett Australia pilots out of a job since their company went bust the week before the WTC. There's several hundred pilots sitting on their thumbs with nowhere to go in Oz right now, I reckon you can plan on at least 50 to 100 of them hitting the job market in UK before you can say 'grandparent entry visa'. And yes they're all type rated, current and highly experienced jet jockeys.

There could of course be a much greater number than that, depending on how things go with the rescue plan down there. Personally I can't see any bank touching a bankrupt airline with a 40 foot pole this week.

Not really going to help wannabe related matters here, but I'm hardly the one to say so am I?? :rolleyes:

[no sponsor]

WWW - I think you made your points fairly clear on the other threads.

The numbers you speak of are interesting.

At the end of the day, I think everyone needs to wait and see what happens over the coming 1-2 months.

I'm sure this won't be the last post from WWW or from others on this topic - but its all conjecture and speculation.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

no sponsor - well actually I was trying to get away from speculation and deal with hard figures. I imagine that a lot of worried Wannabes at this time are turning to PPRuNe FOR speculations and conjecture on the crisis, I think thats our role here...

Luke - yep I deliberately avoided including Ansett crews and expats returning from the 4 corners of the globe becuase its too speculative and I was trying to avoid that.

Hightower - margins in flightraining are very slim and there will be little in terms of fee reduction. It didn't happen to any great extent in the 1991 crisis. What you find is the marginal players go the wall and there are fewer schools to choose from. What does happen is that you get a bit more loving care and attention as the cashflow you are providing becomes more valuable. Also the harassed FI's who for the last couple of years have been flat out with students chasing them around campus nagging for lessons will be able and willing to give you a better service.

Rich Tea - I meant single engine approach in a twin.

I welcome peoples counterpoints or hole picking in my analysis. Peer review and all that.

Good luck,

WWW

[clear prop!!!]

It’s fair to say that we ALL know things are bad. Just how bad seems to be a very popular subject, beyond advising those not in the system, to slow down.

I think it’s also fair to say that life will go on and people will fly, in ever increasing numbers.

There can be no doubt that the transatlantic market is ****** in the short to maybe medium term, but that’s ‘perhaps’ not going to effect us as much as being stated

It’s also true that BA made a complete balls of their marketing strategy and are where they are today as a result of their own mismanagement and assessment of the short haul market.

GO Easeyjet et all continue to thrive as will some of the smaller regionals (Gill excluded, again for reasons unrelated to the present crisis)

Low cost Air travel is on the up and will be more so as the business traveller moves in greater numbers towards it…more problems for BA and BM!

Now this is the Wanabees forum, so lets look at a possible scenario which is not about existing Long haul £80k pa captains etc etc.

This is pure hypothesis, as NO ONE knows how things will pan out over the next few months,

Scenario:
Small regional operator looking for new, low cost FO, (it WILL continue to happen!!)

Candidates:
1 Redundant Long haul FO, living hundreds of miles away or even OZ or other JAA State, loads of experience, prepared to drop salary by say 50%.

2 Local instructor 1200hrs keen to move on will be happy with the low but going rate salary… there for the long-ish run.

If I were that employer I would know that the moment candidate (1) had a sniff of working nearer home, at anything approaching his last salary, he would be off at the speed of light and I would be back to square one. So perhaps the flood of available pilots have the edge on paper, but employers do look further than their noses.

CEP schemes

Dead in the water for the time being, because there are, for reasons given enough qualified and available pilots to plug the gaps at a fraction of the training cost. Without doubt the biggest negative effect of the current crisis.


So it’s NOT good at the moment, we ALL know that and don’t need half a dozen threads to rub it in! Let’s try and give those on this forum who are up to their necks in **** , at least a glimmer of hope…...PLEASE!!!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I'm not in the hope business - wannabes have that in abundance - I'm in the advice business.

Your regional TP airline will quite happily take an applicant with prior commercial experience over someone with none. Training risk is eliminated and if they leave inside of three year they will get a chunk of bond money back. The low time guy will still be kicking around willing to take the place of the guy who has now returned to his big jet.

But there is some truth in your thinking cp. Its just that for every job going at Brymon/Brit Regional/Logan/Eatern/Aurigny/Atlantic/Emerald et al over the next 2 years there could well be around 700 applicants. Tough market that.

WWW

[clear prop!!!]

OK,

So the advice to those in training is to slow down or not start for a while. ...(Makes sense!)


Whats the advice to a 400hr CPL/IR?
Give up all hope?? and look at the negative side of life only?

[Al Francis]

WWW
A very realistic "low down" on the market.I myself lost my job with Britannia along with Rob.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

clear prop!!! I feel for you I really do.

What are your options? Well it depends hugely on peronal circumstance.

Keep building hours in your case I guess. If that does not pay enough then get a better job - perhaps in aviation but not driving 'em... That at least will allow enough cashflow to keep the multi and IR current.

Keep applying but don't plan to get far for a couple of years.

Hard 'innit?

WWW

[Southern Fairey]

WWW,

Having previously accepted some of your "words of wisdom", I feel that things are getting a bit out of had now. The last thing people want to hear is the speculations of an ex-self improver with a whole 3/4 months experience in the industry. To add to that, I suggest that you validate some of your sources before commiting to this forum as I know at least 2 of your points are wide of the mark to say the least.

There are people far better placed to speculate on this forum than yourself, but they seem to be keeping quiet - perhaps because they've seen it all before. While I believe your motives are genuine, do you not think that a person in your position should be trying to calm the situation down as opposed to "fueling the fire"??

Regards,

SF.

[Ralph Wiggum]

WWW, a slight update. Those in the BA TEP scheme WILL be offered jobs by the company, although there wil be an extended delay between graduation and contract. You are correct about the bmi guys, and Aer Lingus guys are still at Oxford, having had their sponsorship ended and bonds released. They will require 20k between the 20 of them to finish off their IR and MCC so me thinks they'll all finish!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Sothern Fairey - 2 points wide of the mark? Which ones?

PLEASE tell me so I can correct them. I'm TRYING to put out decent Gen here.

Sniping at me and not helping I don't need.

I'm not fueling anything unless airline management read my comments and decide hiring policy on my say so.

I keep hearing the words of General Meltchit ringing in my ears - "Thats right George, if all else fails a pig-headed refusal to look facts in the face will see us through - baa!".

I am a Moderator but this does not mean I have to have moderate views. I just stop posts that infringe the PPRuNe user agreement.

Don't shoot the messenger. And please email me those points where I am wide of the mark. Duff Gen we *don't* need right now.

Cheers,

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Ralph - any Gen on the length of the extended delay ? In the early 90's it was 4 years for some guys! Hopefully it will be a lot less this time around.

WWW

[InFinRetirement]

WWW, with respect I think this gloom and doom is not at all helpful! If I may so you seem hell bent on providing enough figures to guide everyone through a quick course in economics. It is just is not like that.

The airline industry has always worked on the principal of gaining and guarding. Gain while you can. Guard when you have to. That means shedding jobs et al if push comes to shove.

I also note with interest that you have removed a paragraph from your original post suggesting that the current chat maybe suffering "the war years syndrome", a sideways reference to me I think it was. Unless you think I am older git than I am, but what is a "war years syndrome"? I started my first airline in 1977 and saw off two recessions, and still managed to employ pilots. You also referred to airlines and the industry being a lot bigger now. I fail to see what difference that makes? Size has no effect other than make the result greater.

I suggest these 'facts' you expound are only relevant in that they are fact. I assume they are fact anyway. But it makes no difference to the overall picture because the fall-out has ALWAYS been there. You have no experience, unless YOU are older than I think you are, of the many things that happened in the 70's and the 80's. When airline problems were at their worst. The problems of '91 were not all recession related. In fact I can't re-call one, other than perhaps Dan-Air, which was in many ways a stitch-up. You ask the pilots, the guys and girls too. Indidentally, I worked with some of those pilots and they were some of the best in the business - still are. Their treatment was appalling.

I believe the airlines have grasped a "golden opportunity". Thus I suspect that some cut-backs were uneccessary. But still you might as well re-cut a drab cloth eh?

Whenever these things have happened the airlines have always bounced back. You might care to re-read my original post on my other thread. I agreed with you on a few points but not on others, just as I am doing now. Scroggs said that we were talking the same language, advising our wannabes, who mean a lot to this "old git", that they should be careful about spending large sums of money.
No problem there.

But I have advised them to advance themselves by taking a step at a time so that they don't get left behind. Having met them and 'talked' to them I have great respect for their judgement. I think they are quite capable of being a good 'master' of their own destiny. But I am NOT advocating that we remove the destiny!

The Airlines will be back. There will also be new airlines. That has always happened too. Jobs will be offered back on different terms, and it is highly likely that the current encumbent work force's will be asked to "re-arrange" their terms of contract. Watch this space!

But WWW, I am trying to encourage them. Telling them that things are very difficult right now is rather pointless. They know that already!!

Normality WILL return, when is another matter, customer confidence WILL return, sooner rather than later, as it always has done, but MAY be delayed. But it WILL happen.

In the last paragraph of my last post on my thread I have told poeple to put any pessimism they might have in the bin, and slam the lid shut. It's not a good time, but being pessimistic is a pointless waste of time. Be optimistic but be frugal with it is all I am suggesting.

The NOW situation, will not last. It never has.

Encouragement WWW, all other info is just that - information. It may of course help them understand the situation but it bears no relationship to the future, which will in due time be rather brighter. DON'T GIVE UP'

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Yep - I agree the industry will bounce back. No arguments there.

I just can't see more than a handful of self sponsored graduates with a fresh Frzn ATPL and 200hrs getting hired by an airline for the next 18 months. I just can't.

Or am I missing something?

I've spent YEARS encouraging Wannabes to get into the industry. Now I encouraging them not to for a while.

Loads will anyway.

Cheers,


WWW

ps just heard that all the Aer Lingus cadets have been visited and told to expect the worst with a decision to be issued next week.

[Eno]

Just wondering about the cadets currently in training schools .

If they are released would it not be the case that they would be called first when the airline starts hiring
again?

Does not seem to make sense that the airlines would spend all that money selecting and training them only to lose them for good.

Just Wondering.

[JT8]

Well, from a collegue at WMU with BA, cadets just finishing are being told a possible wait of 2 years, and those who have just started maybe a years wait after graduation. Anyone with further knowledge correct me if I am wrong. Nobody can give exact timescales, including BA.

WWW, I read your post with interest. As a wannabe who was hoping for sponsorship, or starting modular in the first quarter of 2002, I am in the process of re-organising my short term plans. I feel the points you make are true, and many wannabes need to appreciate the uphill battle we may be entering. However you seem to keep telling us wannabes how bad the situation is, which is something we already know :rolleyes: . Actually, keep going - it may result in less competition when I'm qualified, and things HAVE picked up :D .

Best of luck all and stay positive dammit!
JT8

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Yeah well the "we already know how bad it is" argument holds no water. I am fielding constant queries of breathtaking naivity from - mostly - young Wannabes. "Is it true that I will only be able to get a job with easyJet when I do my licence because BA are not hiring pilots any more?" ETC. ETC.

If you are well into the market and know just how things stand then perhaps I seem to be going on a bit. But there are people out there who do not have a decent understanding of the UK airline pilot hiring marketplace and it is to them that a lot of my posts are addressed.

Cheers, and guys if you don't like the message Please don't shoot the messenger - perhaps shoot his message down with an argument instead.

WWW

[Southern Fairey]

WWW,

Check your mailbox.

SF.

[Delta Wun-Wun]

I get the impression that the Industry lurches from one extreme to another.Firstly everyone is hiring like made,then next minute nobody is hiring and people are getting laid off.I believe IFR is right and things will bounce back,it is just when?I can also see WWW warning about spending £50000 on training when there are no jobs.
However looking at it from the other side those just about to undertake full time training may just be qualifying just as the jobs start to come back on line again.A very big risk I know.
Things will improve it is just a question of timing the end of your training to coincide with the upturn in the Industry.....And if I knew the answer to that....well??
Think carefully before you spend on your training,have a backup plan to keep you current if all else fails,and to you guys about to set off to Jerez at the end of the month,just concentrate on what you are going there to do,it may have improved by the time you are finished....Good Luck.

[StressFree]

WWW,
I was just looking around the forums and came across your post....

I'm lucky enough to have seen out the last recession and despite being laid off twice still remained employed again. Todays situation is as you so rightly say very different. I'm all for someone telling those who are about to spend a small fortune what the reality is, keep it up. The news may not be great but it still needs to be told.....

Regards.

[Raw Data]

Nice of you to try and bring some info to the forum WWW, but I agree with others that you are being needlessly pessimistic.

Having been through the 80's and 90's as a pilot (and before as a wannabe), I can tell you that these downturns are all basically the same, with the slight difference that airlines are a lot more circumspect these days, and tend to take action before the planes get reposessed. This is a Good Thing, as it tends to safeguard jobs.

I well remember 1989, when I started with Loganair. I chose them because they offered to pay for my IR- just as well, too, as the other 12 airlines that offered me jobs were bankrupt within a year or three. Names like BIA, Novair, Paramount, Capital, National Commuter, London City Airways, Birmingham International, not to mention Air Europe, Dan, etc. By 1994, BEST aircrew had over 500 type-rated, experienced jet pilots on their books as unemployed, and there were many more turboprop and instructor pilots, and many newly minted pilots too- well over 1200 in all by estimates of the time (does any of this start to sound familiar to you...???)

And yet, a couple of years later, there were virtually no unemployed pilots and a hiring boom in full swing.

The point is this. The travelling public will continue to fly, and in increasing numbers. Once this blip is over, the industry will grow even larger. At the moment, what you are seeing is companies taking very rapid action to safeguard their position- I suspect a lot of what has happened in the last few days will be reversed in the weeks ahead. My company, BE, even suspects that we might have to hire pilots in the reasonably near future (and that has nothing to do with the acquisition of Gill routes either). Some, like EasyJet and Go, are still hiring (at least I assume Go are from what I hear).

Remember, the only airlines to be badly hit are those reliant on trans-Atlantic travel. The downturn in the rest of the market has not been nearly as dramatic, and most figures you see bandied around are based on forward booking figures, which will naturally slump after an event like last week. That doesn't mean people won't fly, simply that they will book nearer the time of travel to give them time to assess the risk.

The reason that some airlines have shown themselves to be troubled by recent events, is that they were already highly vulnerable. Most of the reason for that is beyond their control, and is not really within the scope of this thread.

Of the four sectors I flew to and from London City airport yesterday- and London City must be perceived as a high-risk airport from a pax point of view- the loads were high on two (ie 80%), and good on two others (ie about 60%). These are good figures for a traditional airline with the sort of yield management we have, and the number of Business Class we carry.

Your figures are interesting, but they grossly over-simplify the situation, and I think it is somewhat misleading of you to go down that road.

The industry is not that much bigger than it was 10 years ago, there are certainly less airlines now than there were then, and the training industry is geared for an artificial bump in training capacity for a variety of reasons.

The JAA thing is a red herring.

As no sponsor said, it is mostly idle speculation, do some research yourself before you commit to anything... and also before you cancel anything. Those that remember the early 90's will recall how those who did the training in the tough times were in the box seat when things improved.

Two other things, WWW said:

margins in flightraining are very slim and there will be little in terms of fee reduction. It didn't happen to any great extent in the 1991 crisis.

Not entirely correct. In 1987, you could hire an Aztec for multi training for just over £200 per hour. By 1989, it was over £300 at many schools, and climbing. Some have now come down a bit, but make no mistake, some very large amounts of money have been made in the flight school business; it is, like any business, about supply and demand. I did my multi training at what was a brand new school and got it for £220 (in 1989 when converting my NZ licence).

WWW also said:

Your regional TP airline will quite happily take an applicant with prior commercial experience over someone with none. Training risk is eliminated and if they leave inside of three year they will get a chunk of bond money back. The low time guy will still be kicking around willing to take the place of the guy who has now returned to his big jet.

Again, not true. Most regionals know that the experienced guy, assuming he is type-rated on something bigger, will leave at the drop of the hat and their net training costs will be higher. That is why many airlines deliberately employ low-houred people- they can usually rely on them staying longer. Training risk is most definitely NOT eliminated as previous experience can make conversion to new SOPs and types problematical- on my F27 course a few years back, three very experienced pilots (including a 20-yr fast jet Squadron Leader) failed the course while two 200-hour F/O's (and me) passed it.

Finally- and I mean this in the nicest possible way without in any way wanting to have a go at you- it is very dangerous to pontificate on the airline industry on the basis of your few months of employment in it. It would be wiser to seek the views of those with many years experience in the industry as most have seen this (or something very like it) before. That is, in fact, what Wannabes desperately need: wise, experienced heads to guide them (both the individuals and the forum).

[clear prop!!!]

Thanks RD!

[Right Way Up]

WWW, a well thought out argument. This does not apply just to pilots. Everyone (not just pilots) should be being very careful in their financial decisions. It is not being pessimistic, it is just being adult enough to realise that in this time of uncertainty that caution is required. These tragic events only added to the airlines problems. Many redundancies were on the cards anyway.
My advice would be that if you have not already paid for a course, is to sit tight and see what happens in the next couple of weeks.

[Raw Data]

No, flyboy, that is NOT what I mean! I'm just saying that there is a little more to it than WWW's assessment would indicate.

By the way, a small correction, what I wrote above only applies to the UK... in the US, domestic air travel bookings have fallen by over 78%... spare a thought for the poor American wannabes...

[G SXTY]

I’ve only just discovered this thread, and have to express my gratitude to WWW, IFR & Raw Data for the amount of time & thought that have gone into their posts. There’s no shortage of counsel there, its up to individuals to listen to the arguments and steer their own course between the viewpoints.

As something of a tadpole in the training pond, I’m in a similar situation to a great many wannabes, so I thought I might as well throw in my two penneth. For what its worth (and allowing for several glasses of red wine) here’s my story:

I’m a month short of my 30th birthday, have been flying for 10 months, and have racked up a whopping 20 hours so far. I won’t bore you with the ‘comfortable career’, ‘unfulfilled, restless, blah blah’, ‘the instructor said “You have control” and it hit me like lightning’ bit – you’ve heard it all before. :rolleyes: Be assured though, I’m determined to fly for a living, and if that involves the occasional pig-headed refusal to admit defeat, then so be it.

Prior to September 11th, I was full of uncertainty – had the cycle peaked or was it on and ever upward? What would the prospects be this time next year? Should I carry on with a couple of hours a month while I paid off the wedding / honeymoon, or should I accelerate my training, or even stick two fingers up to the boss and go for an integrated course?

At least now the path is clearer. I don’t believe there is much point in me completing training for at least 2 years, as I’ll be competing in a depressed market against a large number of (a) unemployed airline pilots, (b) sponsored students unwanted by their airlines, and (c) self-sponsored integrated students who wrote out a big cheque just at the wrong time.

So I’ll slow things down and let the credit cards cool off a bit. However, I am planning to be there with my frozen ATPL in 2-3 years time. Why? Firstly because I like the idea of doing a Danny, and training at the bottom of the cycle, secondly because I have no doubt that the medium to long-term trend is inexorably upwards, and thirdly because I can remember the Gulf War.

The first point has already been discussed at length, so I won’t bother repeating it. For the second point, I look at the formidable progress of low-cost operators in the UK and Ireland, a process that has barely started in the rest of the EU, but surely cannot fail to catch on. When the low-costs offer people the chance of a return ticket anywhere in Europe for the price of a couple of tankfulls of petrol, they are simply reflecting a world that is ever more accustomed to cheap air transport, and which takes mobility for granted. Where once we’d have driven down to Brighton for the weekend, now we think nothing of Barcelona or Nice.

And for the last point, I well remember the doomsday predictions, the ‘feared’ Republican Guard, the Mother of All Battles, the very real possibility of Iraq using chemical weapons, and the US refusing to rule out nuclear retaliation . . . Normality returned, and pretty quickly (admittedly with a sizeable lag in the aviation industry – and hence my decision to delay). I accept that history might not be a perfect pointer to the future, but I’m struggling to think of a better one.

In short, I’m not giving up the day job, but nor will I give up training. Its times like this that being pig-headed can be quite an advantage.

(Edited for red wine stains :D )

[ 22 September 2001: Message edited by: G SXTY ]

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

RD - thanks for that, your input as always is most welcome.

I agree with a lot of what you said. In particular your experience of the early 90's which I think we will see again. In which case as you say it took until the mid 90's for hiring to become reaonable again.

If you tell most Wannabes that it will take until 2005 for hiring to become reasonable again they look at you in abject horror.

If the low costs keep hiring then you can bet that the Icelandair and the Sabena pilots newly out of work with the correct type rating will join the Virgin and BA early retirees in filling all those slots.

The regionals hiring requirements will be fullfilled for a year or two by ex-sponsored cadets.

Leaving didly for the poor indebted self sponsor 200hr guy.

Or not? What do you think? I am interested in generating a broad informed cross section of views here <nudge nudge wink wink> - just think about my posts...

Cheers,

WWW

[InFinRetirement]

A very sensible post G SXTY. Your 'plan' looks considered and precise.

However, I would repeat what I have already said on other posts, don't get left behind. Choose your options and take positive steps forward.

It will work out alright. It will take time, but I do not subscribe to the length of time being assessed before hiring in healthy numbers takes place again. Just do not give up.

Best 'o luck to everyone.

[crazyman]

This is a time for calm. It will take a long time before anything is certain. A few things can reasonably be interpreted as highly likely:-

* The demography of pilots is not linear. We will see a large retirement bulge over the next 5 years.

* Terms and conditions of employment are likely to be reduced in future.

* Previously forecast huge growth in Air Transport is very unlikely in the Medium term (5 years?)

* Airlines will be forced to carry additional costs for a long time (security, fuel,infastructure built for expansion in capacity,insurance)

* Other sectors of the economy (and possibly eithin aviation) will thrive or decline as a result of the change to Air Transport fortunes.

* Short-term external factors could change all of the above and much more.

Good luck to all - it is going to be one marathon roller coaster ride. :rolleyes:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Just one simple point.

The BA retirement bulge. Do not make the mistake of thinking that all these pilots leave the industry to spend their lives polishing the Ferrari. I used the think that was the case.

But at the BA retirement age of 55 they have another 5 years of flying in them. At least a tird in my estimation continue flying.

Certainly every third Captain I fly with seems to have been in BA or 20 odd years. My company offers 'half rosters' so they do 2 weeks work a month and take home some pay that tops up the pension or perhaps pays for the second Ferrari ;)

Others go and do things like fly small turboprops around Scotland just because they don't feel ready for their pipe and slippers.

I never realised this until quite recently.

Cheers,

WWW

[were we shot down?]

G SXTY,

Sounds like a good plan....was thinking pretty much the same thing myself! I thnk if there is anything good that could be said about the current situation, it would be that it's going to enable me to slow down a bit and consolidate my finances a touch so at least I'll have fewer debts by the time I get to CPL/IR. Yes, things are tough and I'm sure they will get worse before they get better but I spent a hell of a long time agonising over my decision to change career and longer still getting financial backing - I'm certainly not going to give up now! ;)
I'm pretty lucky in that there's no problems with job security in my current profession!

[The Islander]

Crazyman, Some interesting points there. Here are others which I feel are relevant to the big picture:

- As both the former Soviet Union and China 'open' up there will be more airspace and destinations for the planners to consider. Those countries will slowly get richer and the take up of air travel will increase.

- Interest rates in the UK are likely to be more stable and probably lower in the next 5 years, making it easier for businesses to plan and grow. Highly relevant as the airline business is all about financing debt.

- Businesses do not 'plan' to remain the same size. Some have shareholders to please, others must strive for growth to secure their financial well-being.

- The rapid lay-off of pilots is a sign of structural flexibility. Airlines can turn on a sixpence if necessary. At the moment this is to our detriment, but when sanity returns it will be to our advantage.

- According to the Times, the Government has announced its intent to assist with the costs of security measures and insurance, so all is not lost there.

I think we are being bombarded with so much information it is too soon to make any big decisions. Whatever happens I will keep progressing toward my goal. I may not be able to get there in one giant leap, but I will continue.

To use the oft quoted metaphors, there is a big training 'conveyor belt' to step on and a 'food chain' to consider thereafter. The only thing that has changed is that I now have to consider more carefully at what point and when.

I have already obtained quotes from my preferred FTO to do the rest of my hours building over here, at a premium of course. I may have to do that whilst in the comfort of my job and take a view of the market next Spring. If it's dire then distance learning comes into play and so on. Yes, I've compromised my preferred route of full-time training starting with ATPLs, but I'll still be in the game.

Frustrated yes, worried nope!

Good luck ;)

[tailscrape]

WWW,

I am sorry, but I feel I have to say this.

I see your position here as moderator as a good thing, but you are NOT an expert in your field. I appreciate the time and effort that you put in here, but feel that you have become rather self important with it.

I want to ask you about two points in particular:

1) JMC recruitment. You are stating that JMC will lay off all new recruits who have not finished line training. I don't believe we have recruited anyone recently. I am very near the bottom of their list and have been assured of my position. As have the guys below me. The ONLY pilots in JMC not thru training are experienced crews who are converting to our new A330's and a handful of crews who have just retired the DC10 fleet after it served us so well. And I don't think we will be getting rid of them.....

2) What makes an ex-sponsored cadet so much better than a self sponsored 200 hour pilot? Or was it that you preffered the company of sponsored cadets because of some misguided idea within your previous employment? I paid for myself to go thru Oxford. I did as well as and indeed better than a lot of sponsored cadets. SO DID MANY OF MY CLASSMATES. I didn't seek the sponsorships because I didn't want to wait. I believed I had enough to offer from my previous experience in life, which was in the City and very close to the Pigeon economics you are spouting.

THERE IS NOTHING TO INDICATE THAT A REDUNDANT EX BA CADET WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING A JOB WITH NO TYPE RATING THAN A DECENT SELF SPONSORED CADET. INDEED, I BELIEVE THE EX CADETS WILL FIND IT HARDER COS THEY WEREN'T BANKING ON HAVING TO LOOK. WHEREAS THE SELF SPONSORED GUY WAS GEARING UP FOR A LONG SLOG ANYWAY.

So, in short:

Don't SPECULATE about other people's airlines and prospects on rubbish information, and please don't be so negative about people's chances.

A low hours pilot is a low hours pilot. It will be hard, but NOT impossible.

Oh WWW, just say the dreaded happened to you and I. We lose our jobs and are on the market. We have a few hundred hours jet time each. You on a 737 and me on a 757. Do you think we will be really marketable? I don't at all. We are as vulnerable as anyone, so don't forget that either. As a very senior Captain said to me recently (who is perhaps the best advice giver I have met) Captains are rare beasts. Co pilots are Ten a Penny. Very true me thinks.

Other than that keep up the good work.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

tailscrape,

WWW,
I am sorry, but I feel I have to say this.

Don't be sorry. Free speech and all that. I'm a big boy, I won't cry.

I see your position here as moderator as a good thing, but you are NOT an expert in your field. I appreciate the time and effort that you put in here, but feel that you have become rather self important with it.

Do you?!? Please illustrate why you think that as I would hate to be perceived in such a manner widely.

No I am not an expert. Who is though? A 55yr old Skipper? Rod Eddington? Maybe. But they won't talk to Joe Wannabe will they.

I want to ask you about two points in particular:

1) JMC recruitment. You are stating that JMC will lay off all new recruits who have not finished line training. I don't believe we have recruited anyone recently. I am very near the bottom of their list and have been assured of my position. As have the guys below me. The ONLY pilots in JMC not thru training are experienced crews who are converting to our new A330's and a handful of crews who have just retired the DC10 fleet after it served us so well. And I don't think we will be getting rid of them.....

I was told by someone inside Britannia involved in recruitment that they had heard the other large Charters were following their move in exactly the same way, "JMC for sure were". Lucky perhaps that you didn't currently have an intake. Maybe they were wrong. But you see my 'objective' is being achieved - you who does know something very tangible about JMC recruitment have popped up on Wannabes and enlightened us all.

Would you have done that had it not been for reading my post...? The case for the defense rests me 'lud...

2) What makes an ex-sponsored cadet so much better than a self sponsored 200 hour pilot? Or was it that you preffered the company of sponsored cadets because of some misguided idea within your previous employment? I paid for myself to go thru Oxford. I did as well as and indeed better than a lot of sponsored cadets. SO DID MANY OF MY CLASSMATES. I didn't seek the sponsorships because I didn't want to wait. I believed I had enough to offer from my previous experience in life, which was in the City and very close to the Pigeon economics you are spouting.

Half of that is contemptable - if you think I of all people think the sun shines out of someones backside because they got sponsored once then you either know very little about my history or have not given that comment much thought.

To address your point - no they won't get an automatic bye into the next available job. It WILL be a lot harder for the good self sponsored guys as now they will be competing with hundreds of pretty good ex-sponsored guys. I have found that the average of a sponsored course is higher than the average of a self sponsored course. There is significant overlap though - resulting in the best self sponsored students being markedly superior to the worst sponsored students.

THERE IS NOTHING TO INDICATE THAT A REDUNDANT EX BA CADET WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING A JOB WITH NO TYPE RATING THAN A DECENT SELF SPONSORED CADET. INDEED, I BELIEVE THE EX CADETS WILL FIND IT HARDER COS THEY WEREN'T BANKING ON HAVING TO LOOK. WHEREAS THE SELF SPONSORED GUY WAS GEARING UP FOR A LONG SLOG ANYWAY.

An ex-sponsored cadet has a slight lead I reckon - much of which will be psychological - they've been picked from thousands once before. Just because they weren't banking on looking doesn't mean they can't get hold of an IPA newsletter and send off their CV's to every airline listed just like the self sponsored will do. They probably have more money/less debt with which to stay current in the coming months and years. Which will help.

So, in short:

Don't SPECULATE about other people's airlines and prospects on rubbish information, and please don't be so negative about people's chances.

OK then. But you concede that JMC is no longer hiring and that until last week they were a good bet for job seekers to apply to? That was the essence of what I said. I'm sure JMC will prosper and I never hinted otherwise. It would have been rude to do so. For example I have not passed on the persistent speculation in the industry about the wintering habits of the Airbus fleet.

A low hours pilot is a low hours pilot. It will be hard, but NOT impossible.

Indeed. The question is HOW hard. Thats what everyone wants to know. And thats why this thread is so valuable to the very worried wannabe out there.

Oh WWW, just say the dreaded happened to you and I. We lose our jobs and are on the market. We have a few hundred hours jet time each. You on a 737 and me on a 757. Do you think we will be really marketable? I don't at all. We are as vulnerable as anyone, so don't forget that either. As a very senior Captain said to me recently (who is perhaps the best advice giver I have met) Captains are rare beasts. Co pilots are Ten a Penny. Very true me thinks.

Thats my line! And there's no cushy instructing job for me to fall back on - Jerez is going to lose it looks like, all its Aer Lingus contract and all its BA JOC contracts. No room for me there. And I don't really fancy £10hr PPL work with my lifestyle to fund. The 2nd Porsche would have to go back almost certainly ;)

The tone of your post seems to be wanting to bring me down a peg or two. Or am I miss-reading it?

Other than that keep up the good work.

Why, I'm flattered.

--------------------

Cheers,

WWW

[ 23 September 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]

[Delta Wun-Wun]

Well as a Wannabe who still has a long way to go, I appreciate the likes of Tailscrape,Raw Data,WWW and IFR taking the time and trouble to offer advice and opinions.Things will get better,when and by how much is anyones guess.Perhaps as I am Distance Learning with still about 8 mths worth of study left I am in a better position than most.Whatever decision you make about your training is not going to be easy.I hope it settles down soon....somehow I think this may drag on a while. :(

[tailscrape]

WWW,

Thanks for the reply. am glad you had time to formulate one. If you perceive that I am trying to bring you down a peg or two, that's for you to decide. I know why I posted my response and I stand by that. I know enough of your background as has been posted here.

Some of your points are valid, some I still maintain are,at best very marginal indeed.

I maintain that you are painting a far too broad a brush picture of events and the potential outcomes that may arise. We, as current line pilot's could be perceived as being just a bit too smug for dishing out the advice for others less fortunate. You have experience and good ideas. Please don't over egg the pudding old boy.

I note you didn't respond to either IFR or Raw Data in the manner you responded to me. Perhaps you see the Seniority gradient there?? I have read and digested your posts with thought and note your response to me with interest. Thankyou sir.

Now, as far as we are concerned in JMC, I cannot comment as to whether we are recruiting or not. It is not my job or decision. Like you, I am a rather Junior First Officer. I would rather concentrate on flying the aircraft than speculating in public about what we may or may not do at JMC.So WWW, I can concede nothing to you at all as you asked me to do. I do not have the information at hand.

I also find it rather staggering that " contact" in Britannia should care to pass muster on what other lines are doing. We do not have the same exposures that Britannia have at all. How can they comment?

I want to deal in fact and substance in this issue. Unfortunately, rumour and fiction will not do at the minute. We are all involved in an industry devoid of confidence and buoyancy at the minute. Let's try and look for a glimmer of light rather than peering down the dark hole.

As and when JMC have anything to tell me, you can rest assured they will do it by telling me and my colleagues directly. Not other people, not this site nor indeed most pertinently anyone in Britannia Airways...

So, in short again, I maintain my stance and note everything you have said with interest again.

I still think you could do with lightening up and using your position here in a positive manner at the moment. All the guys and girls you are offering advice to.....they know how grave the situation is. They don't need to be taught how to suck eggs by a UK co pilot. They are intelligent enough to know what the score is without having put in such stark grim tones.

[Luke SkyToddler]

Jeez tailscrape - some of you guys are getting a bit personal in your rebuttals of WWW - he may indeed be 'just' a fresh 737 copilot but that's a damn sight better position than 99% of the rest of us here have got. More to the point if you've been following this website for a few years, you'll know he's done a bit more than your average 'just an FO' and more pertinently that there is probably not a single man alive that's given more of his time and effort for free over the years to help and improve the lot of the internet-connected airline wannabe in this country. Some of the most informative and well considered posts I have ever read have come from WWW and when I see his byline I always sit up and pay attention even if I don't agree with it.

Anyway, to have a go at anyone posting opinions on this issue because of their so called 'junior' position in the industry is bollocks in the extreme. This is a very very complex situation and we're all speculating on the outcome, it doesn't really matter whether it comes out of the mouth of a PPL, a jet FO, or Chuck Yeager himself :rolleyes:

I don't personally think that things are gonna be as grim as WWW says they are either, but I for one would like to hear everything he has to say even if it's doom and gloom. A bunch of hugely misplaced optimism has the potential to do a lot more damage to people's lives around here than a dose of sobering analysis.

Final point is that in my opinion it's personal attacks on individuals that bring this place down, not misplaced advice. Unless of course it's attacks on Ronchonner :D

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Cool.

WWW

[tailscrape]

Hi Luke and WWW,

Good point about Ronchonner mate!

I do not mean to assassinate or bad mouth or indeed create aggro at all. I am probably more junior than WWW in my respective line, so I am not using that as an angle to strike anyone down.

In such fragile circumstances, a lot of things are decided purely on confidence. I don't want my company and hence my pay packet being harmed by yet more idle chit chat.

WWW, you will be glad to know I am back at work tomorrow. Therefore i won't be here to get on the old p.c.

Good luck everyone and let's get positive!!!!!

[The Greener Grass]

Dear me. The implications I get interpreting some of these posts is that us Wannabees are becoming indoctrinated by bad from WWW, good from IFR & Raw Data and that these are destiny-changing moments.

Whilst I am most grateful that any line pilot is willing to offer their opinion, the contents of their post remains just that.

Tailscrape implies that people may change their future plans based on a handful of posts from WWW within 2 weeks (yes 2 weeks) of the WTC attack. Now I really hope I speak as Mr Average Joe Wannabee and say that I for one am not pushed over the edge by this at all. If that is you concern tailscrape then I appreciate what you are saying, but I think that most of us have the strength of character to make our own minds up based on a whole variety of information we receive, of which a small PART may come from Pprune. Equally I am not moved by IFR and RD's enthusiasm. Please don't misinterpret this post; I am as grateful as anybody for the advice all of you offer, and at times am frankly amazed that you can be bothered to spend your free time doing so for us anonymous wannabees.

The truth is nobody can predict what the future holds - blimey if we had access to a pair of hindsight glasses we all would have done things differently. So past events may give some clue a decision we face in life today regarding the future, but as that event has not yet happened it is speculative and hence the difference of opinion between WWW, tailscrape, IFR and RD.

What is clear (and I think everybody agrees on this) is that a wannabee's life after September 11th 2001 is going to be a whole lot harder that before that day. The length of time and degree of difficulty is not possible to predict, so let's not try. 2 weeks after the event is not the time to consider your approach (no pun intended)! Long-term prospects are excellent, and always will be. Why not postpone that decision for 6 months before forking out 50k for the ab-initio course?

And when that time comes, look and consider the evidence. Still a little unsure by then? Then get on a modular course, where the draggable out factor is much more tuneable, become an instructor afterwards e.t.c. - Basically have a long-term plan and goal. I would have though this is a good plan, or not?

[barry white]

I can see that this has got a lot of people worried about the future of the airline prospects, but I seriously believe that by next March, April time it will be full steam ahead again.
This in my opinion is as a good as any time to start your training or to complete it, yes you might have to wait a few months extra to find a job,at the moment, but this will only be a short interuption.
The airlines were crying out for pilots before this, and they will be again in the near future, OK so there is a few high hour jet time pilots, new on the market but they won't be unemployed for long. The aviation game is one of the fatest growing industries and people will always want to travel, so how do they want to travel? by air of course, you wouldn't want to take the ferry to the Carribean would you
Keep posting and keep training there is light at the end of the tunnel.
PS Look at ATPL Theory Revolution thread and get your self heard.

[The Guvnor]

Reality check, people.

When the dust settles (and no, it isn't going to take 'a couple of months' as some hope), there will probably be at least 20 - and possibly as many as 50,000 qualified and experienced pilots out of a job, worldwide.

I've been around a fair while - I started at Laker Airways in 1981 - and I've been through two recessions. This one will be worse than the other two combined.

What we're going to see is this:

1) Massive pay cuts - which once instituted will remain in place.

2) For every available job that comes up, there will be hundreds of qualified applicants. This means that someone without experience will not even be considered.

3) There will be start-ups to take the place of some of the airlines that go to the wall - but again, their interest will be in experienced people.

4) The previous homes for people looking to build hours - eg flying schools, Africa, corporate flying etc will be closed as again experience is sought. Remember that many an out of work pilot will be prepared to literally "fly for food" as has happened in the past and will happen again now.

5) Companies that laid people off are required to hire back those people in preference to 'outsiders'. It's only once those slots have been filled that new people will be accepted - but again, experienced people will be taken in preference.

6) Prior to the events of the 11th September, Warren Buffet (who knows a thing or two about these things) was predicting that the current recession will last eight years. If things develop the way that they could, you'll see an economic collapse that will make the 1930s look like boom times.

So WWW is 100% correct. If you're in the middle of a course; or are about to start - STOP and assess your options. In my opinion, the chances of you getting an airline job over the next five plus years are nil to non-existent and you're going to need the money for other things in the interim.

I wish I could be more positive - but you lot need to know the true situation as it stands out there. Some of the comments on this thread are absolutely incredible - the naivety shown by some is truly frightening.

A last thought that has stood me in good stead over the years: hope for the best - but plan for the worst. Can't go wrong that way, really!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Crikey.

WWW

[Polar_stereographic]

Just to put a bt of balance on this thread, it might be worth reading:
http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=1&t=015662

It looks like opinions differ, even from those who've been arround for a while.

I spoke to a mate of mine over the weekend who's an f/o with BA of around 6 months, so bottom of the seniority. He's spoken to them, and the word is that they are NOT laying off any pilots dispite what the media are saying, but the 300 or so that are talked about will come from retirements etc. So to repeat, not 300 on the market.

I guess the question is more a case of when they will start replacing these. Might also be an indication that they think it will blow over soon, so want to retain some excess. They also use the word 'moth ball' rather than scrap of some of their aircraft, so this might also add some weight to the theory.

PS

[wallup]

Firstly, thanks to WWW for setting up this thread, I tried something similar a few days back, but it was probably too close to the events in NY, Washington and Pittsburg.

Wannabes need to have a full overview of the facts so that they (and only they) can make the right decisions for themselves. We are, afterall, supposed to be "captains of the future" and as such capable of deciding for ourselves what we do. I would raise a couple of points related to WWW's original post and the subsequent bunfight here:

1 - Don't count on the guys in decent jobs who can afford renewals being out of the job market. I'm in that position (only just, it still cripples the bank account but I'm keeping current), if a flying job comes up - I'm off - I haven't come all this way and put all this work in not to pursue my ambitions. I am aware of the risks involved, I was before I took up flying training, I suggest I'm not the only one. I may in the near future do an instructors rating and instruct part time (evenings and weekends), again I don't think I'll be the only one.

2 - The job market is going to be more competitive, we are going to be coming up against experienced, professional aircrews, can't deny that. Now I can only look at that as being part of the challenge, as a 350 hours CPL/IR I have to look at it that way. Until recently Go, easyJet and Ryan were still taking a broad sweep of experience, with being able to fit the company culture a more important criteria. I understand that EZY and GO are concentrating on those with commercial experience now because of a lack of captains, but it won't stay that way forever.

3 - We ain't financial experts and we can't expect to be. I would suggest that even financial experts aren't in a position to predict what is going to happen, this is uncharted territory, will it go down, will it go up who know's? Eddie George was on Breakfast with Frost yesterday morning stating that the current drop in spending is not due to a lack of consumer confidence, but more to do with the fact that we were all glued to our TV's, mouthes and eyes wide open, unable to believe what we were seeing. He predicted that most sectors would pick up fairly soon, in particular retail and the service sector, with "slightly longer term" effects in equity and the ailine industry. I know it's his job to do so but it was a fairly up beat message, and worth listening to.

4 - I'm gonna be a bit bitchy here, sorry, but wannabes who say things like "is it true I can only get easyJet becaue BA sponsorship has ceased?" clearly have NO idea. I would suggest that EZY is not a compromise job - to think of it as second best is really going to work against you if you're applying there.

5 - Charter airlines - this time of year there aren't many bookings anyway. people don't start booking summer holidays until later in the year, that's why you see loads of holiday adverts over Xmas. Bookings may be down 28% for this time of year, but that's 28% of very little. Wait and see.

On friday I received an application form for a cargo airline, and I'm going to go for that job. As I say, it's going to be against tough competition but I can't roll over and let this beat me. I've come this far, I'm in it for the long haul (no pun intended), no matter how long it takes.

5 - WWW, thanks for no longer posting "gentlemen, this is not good" in every post. That was getting just a tad annoying. ;)

And thanks to Tailscrape, Raw Data, IFR, Scroggs et al for saying it how they see it as well. A valuable debate, with well reasoned arguements all round.

Apart from the events in the USA themselves, I feel very sorry for those people losing their jobs and being told they aren't required during or before their courses (see the Britannia thread as one example). It must feel dreadful to have thought "I've made it" to have it taken away from you at such short notice. It is indicative of how cruel our chosen profession can be.

However, I think wait and see is the only solid advice that can be given right now.

Whatever you decide to do - I wish you all the best.

[ 24 September 2001: Message edited by: wallup ]

[Jonty]

Ok, the picture at JMC at the moment: No recruitment is taking place. 3 A320s are going back the the lessor in Sep, this was a planned move and nothing to do with the WTC. The 104 Ryan pilots will be going back to the States at the end of Oct, will they be back? who knows, but if they dont come back we have two choises, ground another 8 A320s or find another 50 crews from some where (whatch this space). Will our A320s be going out the USA this winter, at the moment yes, the holidays have been booked and payed for. This may change.

If you want my input on what is going on, this down turn will last about 6-12 months, it wount be anywhere as bad as the last one 89-90 (intrest rates at 15% and 3Million unemployed at the start of it) currently we have interest rates at about 4% and 0.5million unemployed. also before the WTC attack people were saying the worst is over as regards the down turn. Can someone explain to me what has fundamentaly changed in the economy and the last 10 days? (the answer is: NOTHING)

[The Guvnor]

Polar_Stereographic - you have to bear in mind that this crisis has only just started - the 11th was less than two weeks ago - and has years to run yet.

The European markets will remain more buoyant than the US and Transatlantic ones because - and only because - Europe hasn't been directly affected. Yet.

Stateside, people are stopping flying for a number of reasons:

1) They have had little experience of terrorism and it scares the sh*t out of them - especially the thought of having an aircraft hijacked with them on board and used as a flying bomb. In Europe, we've had the IRA, ETA, RAF, Red Brigades etc to contend with for many years and it's not a major issue.

2) As has been widely discussed, US domestic aviation security is a complete joke, with passenger convenience rather than safety being the watchword. Passengers are not prepared to put up with two or three hour check in times - especially on the short hop, regional flights - and will now drive those instead of flying. Here in Europe, we've always had the security systems in place which the Americans are now introducing so it doesn't make any difference - and with the exception of (some) UK domestic and European routes served by high speed rail links it's still faster to fly than it is to take the car or train.

3) As the recession starts to bite, so companies start to cut costs. No longer can staff travel at the drop of a hat; and also people tend to downgrade: those flying first will now go business; those in business will go econony; and those in economy on a full-service airline will travel on a 'no frills' carrier. As the lowest common denominator, the people who will do very well out of this will be the Southwests, Ryanairs and easyJets.

So how will European markets be affected?

1) With many US passengers not flying transatlantic, this translates into fewer people using connecting/European flights which affect loads.

2) There has been a marked drop in advance bookings noted by a number of airlines - not those like FR and EZY, of course, as why would you not fly anywhere on their system for 1p or £1 or whatever? But those carriers will have to ramp their fares back up again quickly or they too will be haemmorhaging cash, which in a recession is a Very Bad Thing Indeed.

3) Airline costs are skyrocketing. Insurance premiums have increased 500% on average, and are payable quarterly in advance; which was one of the primary factors Gill went down. The price of fuel is increasing, too - and will go through the roof any military action starts for two reasons: (a) the various airforces will be buying it all; and (b) the oil markets are hypersensitive about any possible interruption of supply from the Middle East caused by war, sanctions or profiteering.

So what will the effects be?

1) Older generation, less fuel efficient aircraft will be parked and their crews retrenched. In a situation where LIFO rules apply at an airline, this will add costs where someone coming off a grounded type has to be retrained onto another type; whilst someone who is trained on that type has to be retrenched because s/he's more junior.

2) New aircraft acquisitions will be cancelled or deferred.

3) Startups (and there will be precious few of those over the next few years!) will use experienced pilots which they will be able to get at a pittance.

4) The charter market will be decimated for two reasons: (a) the economic belt-tightening effects of recession mean that people simply don't have the cash to go off on their holidays; and (b) a general reluctance, especially by infrequent travellers, of travelling by air after the US attacks.

5) Finance is not available for either start-ups or reinvestment into existing airlines. This means that no bail-outs or mergers are likely except if government sponsored in order to avoid catastrophic damage to their own economies. Remember, mergers only happen when one party has something another wants: routes, aircraft, staff etc - and in the present environment to merge two weak carriers will simply make a doubly weak one. So forget thoughts of ba Virgin Midland - it's just not going to happen.

6) If a war does happen, then the effects will be devastating. Expect loads to plummet overnight, as passengers become too nervous to travel even the no frills carriers. Unlike with the Gulf War, where there was an identifiable target which resulted in a massive movement of men and materiel - much of it on chartered airliners - here we have a situation where there is no country involved per se and therefore no attacking army. Most airlines' cash reserves will only allow them to stay grounded for 30 - 60 days before running out, and therefore airlines are cutting back now on aircraft and personnel in order to reduce the burn rate of those reserves. Worst hit will be the major full service airlines, with new (and very expensive) aircraft and heavy infrastructures; least hit will be anyone with older, low capital cost aircraft and small infrastructures.

So if any jobs are available, what are the best options?

The airlines that will be least affected, in my opinion will be:

1) European regional airlines, especially those operating lower cost turboprop equipment

2) Cargo airlines.

Hardest hit will be:

1) Full service airlines

2) Charter airlines

How long will this all last for?

The last recession was effectively from 1990/1 though to 1994/5; and was prompted by the Gulf War. That said, it's roots could be traced back to 1987 when the stockmarket collapsed, followed shortly afterwards by house prices.

This one was already predicted (by Warren Buffett) as lasting double that time - 8 years - and any conflict will have a much more serious effect still.

Within a year, expect to see massive unemployment in all sectors; house prices slashed as an affect of job losses and people no longer being able to afford mortgage repayments; compounded with them being unable to meet demands by the building societies/banks to pay off the 'negative equity'; spiraling costs of all goods (especially imported ones) resulting in greatly increased inflation figures; introduction of a national identity card and all the other police state controls that successive governments have tried for years to impose; and race riots that make those of the 1980s look like childsplay.

The best thing to do at the moment is to maximise your cash reserves - beg, borrow or steal as much as you can; liquidate your assets now for a much better price than you'll get in a few months or years - and then sit on it. This is the lesson that a few - very few - people knew in 1929, when the stockmarket crash led to the Great Depression - from a cash rich position they were able to pick up bargains at pennies in the pound that they could resell, at great profit, when the economic situation improved.

Good luck to us all!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Jonty - thanks for that, I am very relieved to hear reasons why all the Charters will not 'do a Britannia' regards recruitment in the short term. Its quite suprising when you start getting into it how disparate the positions of airlines in the same sector actually are.

Just one point which I have made elsewhere but stands repetition re. BA Retirees.

They don't all leave aviation chaps. They may leave BA on their nice pension but then I reckon at least half keep on flying elsewhere often part time or on a contract basis. The reasons are many and varied but include them liking flying or having to fund 3 divorces ;)

So actually the 400 that BA will try to retire in the next 12 months may well turn into actually only 200 leaving the industry. The long fabled 'BA retirement bulge' is therefore somewhat of a myth albeit true over the 5 - 10 year term.

I am starting to see some signs that things are not going to completely pancake in though.

However there are still going to be by my reckoning at least 160 from Virgin, 100 from BA and 60 from Gill filling vacancies in the short term. Plus the failure of foreign JAA airlines plus Ansett and Air New Zealand might lead to perhaps 75 pilots headed over here with work rights. So thats about 400 nicely experienced airline pilots in the hiring market.

Aer Lingus and BMi will be dumping around 100 ex-cadets into the low time pool that weren't supposed to be there.

The colleges are pretty full with at least 250 self sponsored students set to graduate from Integrated courses within the next 12 months. And thats excluding non-British FTO's.

Looking at The Pilots Register and data from the ever helpful IPA records we can see that in the last 12 months - which have seen hiring going at full throttle - there have been about 400 airline vacancies filled.

If this halves down to 200 for the next 12 months then its going to take 18 months to clear out the experienced guys at least. Some low timers will still be hired for various good reasons like keeping training departments occupied and maintaining a balance in hours and experience within the workforce.

It is going to be hellish slow though for the next 18 months or more for those at the bottom of the food chain. :-(

At the moment I am putting my money on things being about 2/3rds as bad as the early 90's.


Cheers,


WWW

[Raw Data]

Well, I don't think many people "in the know" will be sharing the Guv's analysis. Highly pessimistic and leaning heavily towards the "doom" end of the scale, the picture he paints is really only a worst-case scenario. As this situation is somewhat different to all that have gone before, most of his analysis doesn't apply.

Also, Guv, watch the factual errors:

[QUOTE] The last recession was effectively from 1990/1 though to 1994/5; and was prompted by the Gulf War. [/QUOTE

... is complete bollocks. Starter for ten, Guv... when did the Gulf War start? I think you will find it was at the end of that timescale.

There are big holes in the rest of his arguments as well, but I haven't the time to go into them now.... maybe tonight. A shame really, as usually the Guvnor makes more sense than all of his detractors combined.

There is no denying that the current situation calls for steady nerves, and it is clear to me that the world in general is much more prepared to cope this time around. We shall see...

[The Guvnor]

Raw Data - you must be jetlagged or something! Actually, Iraq invaded Kuwait on the 2nd August 1990, which prompted a massive short term oil price increase and which was the final triggering factor for the recession. Desert Storm commenced on the 15th January 1991, with a ceasefire being declared on the 28th February.

My synopsis was indeed 'worst case scenario', following on from my earlier thread where I said: "Plan for the worst; but hope for the best".

Looking forward to debating the other 'gaps' with you later! :D :D :D

[no sponsor]

I think the advice continues to be to wait and see over the next 1-2 months, to determine how the current crisis will develop before deciding on the route/type of training. I'm not saying the crisis will be over in 1-2 months, but that it may be easier an environment to assess objectively.

No-one, as yet, has any facts on the course the economies will take, nor on the precise course of action the US will employ. When these are more certain, the stock markets, Governments and airlines will be assess their environments, and act in a decisive way which will bring stability (albeit in a possible negative way).

Markets and airlines can handle a bear or a bull market, what no-one can handle is uncertainty - which is what we have plenty of at the moment.

So, sit back, and wait - including all the prophets of doom and gloom.

[InFinRetirement]

I think this will be my last post on this subject. I have to repeat some of what I have said on this and my own thread. But I have to take issue with 'The Guvnor'. I respect his right to make his point of view, but I don't have to agree with him and I don't. Except perhaps, in one or two statements. The rest is, I have to say, presumptive speculation based, apparently on his personal views, and nothing else which is strange considering his experience. Either that or he has a very short memory, since history in the industry always repeats itself. I also think that Raw Data is right in his summation of a day or two ago, and today.

I had and ran my own airlines, the first in '77, and I believe you really DO have to have been involved as I was, and RD was, in 3 recessions and one war, to have at least an idea of how the industry has always returned with new vigour and in a relatively short period of time. I can see nothing in the present circumstances that alters that save to say, that the severity of this sad situation will make it a longer recovery - but NOT years. The industry will have to recover sooner than that otherwise the drains all over the world will be full of airlines!

At the risk of repeating myself again I must state again that this very sad situation should be used by the airlines to get rid of the equipment they don't really need, get rid of people they don't really need, get rid of routes they don't really need and get rid the Empire Builders in management they don't need, and who are about as much use to the airlines as a single engined pram! It is an opportunity that will relieve ANY airline of the hurt it has suffered. Think of it as a dialysis machine, it will clean the blood and get rid of muck that made it poorly. JMC is a good example of that, with Thomas Cook getting rid of damn near the whole team! I doubt that Terry Soult will have deserved it but he has taken early retirement anyway - according the Financial Mail on Sunday.

I think there will be a serious look at employment contracts too. With the likelihood that from the boardroom down there will be pretty severe cuts in pay. It is a time to cut costs and cut cloth. To pay attention to the idiotic decisions taken by those who were, perhaps, unecessarily employed in the first place. Trouble is I wonder if those who have to make those decisions are also capable. As you can see I do not have a very high opinion of airline management - but not all management.

It is time to look at every department and change it with relentless fervour - to upgrade the airline to a worthwile business. So that it can recover quickly.

At the time of the Gulf war, the number of charter passengers dropped from 13m to 9.5m and this hit the airlines very hard. Air Europe and Intasun in particular, who both went bust. Two years after the war passenger numbers were back to normal and increased further to 14m. This created new and better airlines. It is also worth stating that our domestic routes are riding high right now. Two weeks after the devastating event. Full loads! What would cause that? Passenger confidence wouldn't you say?

I also repeat what I said on the 20th. An airline works on Costs over Income. What is left is profit. The former has to be the best you can do, but the latter is the essential element to give you profit. But, one thing happened that was highly significant. Passenger confidence came back very quickly just has it has done above. This was and is largely due to the fact that people have very short memories about aircraft incidents - of ANY kind, and airlines just got bigger and better until.................then you have the low-cost airlines. They are on a winner in my opinion. I think they reap an enormous harvest of income from the effects of all this and will grow still more. But watch out for cost cuts. They really do have you by the short an curlies now - if they want to, and I wouldn't take a bet on M.O'Leary!.

In the case of Wannabes, you should not think negatively about this current situation. Be optimistic with a good helping of circumspection at the same time. Don't give up your goal. But be careful with your plans. Don't change your aims but take one step at a time. Don't spend large sums of money, but don't miss out on something important. The airlines WILL make a recovery, they WILL hire pilots again, even those with low hours - just as they did in the years after the Gulf war. Don't be led into believing that the high time pilot is the only type of pilot they will want. It won't be, it never was. However, don't be complacent - but do keep sight of your goal.

Another repetitious statement! If you feel pessimism - find the nearest bin and shove it in there - then shut the lid tight!

Remember, the final decision is yours. Think wisely and when you need to, do not hesitate to seek advice. BUT DON'T GIVE UP. YOU are the airlines future. Stick with it even though it will be tough.

But then no-one ever said aviation was easy - did they?

[ 24 September 2001: Message edited by: InFinRetirement ]

[Flypuppy]

Its good to see a few realistic and vaugely optomistic post in amongst all this doom gloom and misery thread.

Regardless of what happens in the world, and I hope it doesnt get out of hand, there is more to aviation than just the airlines. Think laterally, there are bound to be other ways of making money out of the commercial licence that we are all striving for. I certainly am not giving up, not now, not ever. I have set my course and will sail it until the end (or until I get torpedoed). The amount of half informed opinion that has spewed forth from these hallowed halls has been idiotic at times. With a little more time a new perspective to the aviation world will slowly form.

Who knows, maybe the Guv will tell us stories of his gun running in a beaten up old 707 into the next trouble spot, in between his writing rugby reports and setting up his virtual airline.....

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Good on ya Flypuppy. I am rooting for you all the way.

Cheers,

WWW

[redsnail]

Ah Flypuppy, you never fail to make me chuckle. From the proverbial Chicken of Despair to this. Onya mate :D

[Girt_bar]

I don't mean to rub salt in to the wound here guys but it looks like Air New Zealand is on it's way under with a large number of VERY experienced pilots about to pour out into the job market.

I for one have decided to put the training on hold for a while but I will definitely be back.

[The Guvnor]

Flypuppy such bright eyed and bushytailed optimism is great to see in the present environment - I only hope you're right!

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it.

Two weeks after the attacks on the US, the scorecard for British pilot losses looks like this:

BA 380
Virgin 230
Gill 92

Many more are expected from BA, and bmi British Midland together with the charter operators haven't announced their losses yet. Expect the total to be around 1,000 by the end of this month.

Remember I said property prices would be likely to collapse? Confirmation here from today's Telegraph:

Attack 'will hit the housing market'
(Filed: 25/09/2001)

THE terrorist attacks in the US will "undoubtedly" affect Britain's robust housing market, according to a new survey.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says that although this month's quarter-point cut in interest rates will help support the market, the international situation will not help house prices. RICS national housing spokesman Ian Perry said: "The attack on the US and the subsequent international uncertainty will undoubtedly have an effect
on the UK economy, and with it the housing market."

He added: "The stabilisation of the market in the summer and the forecast slowdown are a welcome pause after the rapid rises in the first half of the year. The cut in interest
rates will help support the market, but the international situation will not help, particularly given the signs of a slowing economy."

RICS survey of house prices for the three months to August showed the market remained strong - the number of completed sales reached its second highest level since 1993, rising 7% over the last three months. Demand for property was still ahead of supply, RICS said.

Its survey showed prices rose fastest in East Anglia, followed by the North West and the North, while the pace of rises in London moderated slightly. The Halifax warned earlier this month that the housing market is set to slow down as recession in the manufacturing sector hits consumer confidence.

[Jonty]

Gov, the last down turn was part of the normal economic cycle, exasperated by the UK being thrown out of the ERM losing £10 billion in the prosess. The boom of the late 80s could not be sustained and with interest rates at 15% and 3 million unemployed it was only a matter of time. the Gulf war was an unfortunate side show that just prolonged the agony not caused it.

The current situation is VERY differant, interest rates at 4%, 0.5 million unemployed. The underlying economy is strong. Nothing fundermentaly has changed since Sep 11.

The big problems at the moment as I see them are:

Insurance, sloved by the governments in the short term.

Oil prices, according to Ceefax $25 a barrell, about the same as before.

The Americans not flying, This is the big one, Europe has had terroism for 30 years or more, we are used to it. This is a shock to the Yanks and it will take time to recover, provided there are no more attacks.

The milatry action will prolong the agony as before, but we are talking months not years.

Any one exposed to the American market will be affected in the short term. It will not stop Joe Bloggs from having his week in Spain next summer.

[Flypuppy]

Guvnor,

I never said I was being optomistic, in fact ask the guys on my course who the Doom Meister is ;)

From what I can gather a majority of the BA pilots were due to be retired this year anyway as was the phasing out of the 747 Classic fleets. Some of the Gill pilots have, as far as I am aware, not sat back and waited for a job to come looking for them and are looking at setting up their own air operation. There is more to the world than just trans Atlantic traffic. I have also heard that companies like DHL are seeing an increase in business. Frieght still has to be moved, businessmen still need to have face to face meetings, families still want to see each other. Until someone develops a teleporter,aviation will continue to be an important part of peoples lives.

The world is slightly different this time than in 1990/1 in so much as Europe is not so heavily linked to the US economy anymore, and that fact alone may just save a few companies. The price of oil has dropped, unemployment figures are not very high at the moment and interest rates are ridiculously low. I am not an economist but I dont think we are in for a monster recession. It may take time for the US to get over this tragedy but time heals all wounds, and then we will see how the land lies. Until then we should be pragmatic and stop all this doom mongering, get a life and take each day as it comes.

Chicken of despair? I am the bluebird of happiness....

[Red_Devil]

Shorts have just announced 2000 redundancies and Delta a staggering 13000. Another poor day for the aviation industry.

[slipnslide]

I've got to say I really feel for any guys out there who've recently finished (or are just about to) finish their ATPL courses.

How many wanabees have considered a career in the military? The nice uniform,high tech toys to play with, short haircut, strict disipline and the prospect of getting ******ed senseless in the showers are great character builders for a young lad... just look at me, my time in RAF never did me any harm (sits there twitching and dribbling) ;)

Joking aside, there are some great careers in the services and although I can apprciate it is not easy to get in, it surely must be an option worth considering?

Good luck.

[Polar_stereographic]

I'd like to draw to this topics attention the following

http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi? ubb=get_topic&f=1&t=015796 (http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=1&t=015796)

Enjoy the read.

PS

[ 27 September 2001: Message edited by: Polar_stereographic ]

[scroggs]

I've been absent for a week (last Virgin trip??), so I missed out on this thread so far. It's been an interesting half-hour's reading.
One aspect that is not immediately obvious when reading posts on a BB is the reliability of the information or the informant. Some here may not be very reliable, and should go back to R&N where they properly belong.
We have two who say they have run airlines through recessions and wars: IFR, who is accessible to you all, whose support for wannabes is legendary, whose success record is public knowledge, and whose integrity is unquestioned; and the Guvnor. I know whose advice I would trust, but it's up to you who you believe!
For those who would like an authoritative insight into airline economics, read Rigas Doganis' book The Airline Business in the 21st Century (ISBN 0-415-20883-1). There you will find a thorough analysis of the effects of the 87-94 economic slowdown (it wasn't a recession for much of the world) and the very temporary effect of the Gulf War, and an analysis of the underlying economics of the current airline business right up to just before the WTC.
I'm sure you've all read my advice to Wannabes in other threads and, for the moment, I stick by it. If you're contemplating an integrated course to start in the very near future, it's probably worth considering delaying. If you're due to start one in 6-9 months, watch the situation carefully and be prepared to change your plans. In either situation, you might consider taking the modular approach just so that you can tailor your graduation to the eventual upturn - which will come! Those of you currently on a modular course, start thinking about the timescale of the remainder of your training. If you're just about to graduate, I'm afraid that you're probably going to be into marking time until things start to improve. Of course, neither I nor anyone else here knows how long that will be, but it will happen. Just don't believe everything you read!

[ 28 September 2001: Message edited by: Scroggs ]

[InFinRetirement]

Tim, you know from my personal mails to you how much I wish that things turn out OK for you. I am equally sure that all the guys on Wannabes would also wish to join me in re-affirming those good wishes. You are too good to waste so you will come back, whatever it takes. Good luck.

I am going to repeat the last paragraph of Scroggs post above. Mainly, because he and I are in agreement with what the future holds for you and the industry.

I'm sure you've all read my advice to Wannabes in other threads and, for the moment, I stick by it. If you're contemplating an integrated course to start in the very near future, it's probably worth considering delaying. If you're due to start one in 6-9 months, watch the situation carefully and be prepared to change your plans. In either situation, you might consider taking the modular approach just so that you can tailor your graduation to the eventual upturn - which will come! Those of you currently on a modular course, start thinking about the timescale of the remainder of your training. If you're just about to graduate, I'm afraid that you're probably going to be into marking time until things start to improve. Of course, neither I nor anyone else here knows how long that will be, but it will happen. Just don't believe everything you read!

No dogma! Just good old fashioned common sense.

Just do your own thing based upon your OWN decisions. I expect that further advice is probably uneccessary now, but you can e-mail any of us if you don't want to post.

Good luck to you also.

[MAX]

Guys,

I just want to fly aeroplanes. Sure Im low houred, just been dropped on my proverbial and lost my dream job. But I'm prepared to sit this out and instruct, jump, etc.. As I think most recently qualified Wannabes will do. Airline jobs aren't the be all and end all.

MAX :cool:

[foghorn]

It's also simple for me. Like Max I too just want to fly aeroplanes. I have made a clear decision to change career. I have gone into every stage of my training over the last two and a bit years with my eyes open, with an alternative plan in my back pocket and due consideration of the worst case scenario.

Now I have my licence but the airline industry is in a crisis of some proportions. That's not going to stop me, though, I'm going to do what it takes to get me to a level where airlines will be interested in me. Whether that's by waiting for things to pick up, building hours, building multi-hours or whatever. hey I might even consider a type rating as a last resort, but I'm not feeling that desperate or rich yet.

That means the most sensible route is going to be instructing (I'm a week into an instructors rating). If, as looks likely, opportunities here are more limited than before, well, I'll look at part-time instructing and a return to my old day job. Failing that I just return to my old job for a while and re-fill the bank account. Hell, with my old job it will be easier to keep that expensive multi-IR current.

Now I'm by no means the youngest wannabe on this board, but I'm also definitely not the oldest. Two and a half years ago I set myself a target of an airline job age 30. I'm 28.5 now, if I have to change that target who cares, I don't care what barriers I have to cross I will get there eventually because I have invested too much money, time, effort and emotional energy in my dreams to give up.

I hope that all wannabes make it to their dream, but, cyncially, the more that fall by the wayside, the less competition there is for me. Harsh, but realistic.

cheers!
Defiant foggy.

[Raw Data]

Just back from a few days away- a few more thoughts.

Scroggs is right about the limited impact of the Gulf War, the REAL reasons for the airline woes at the time was in fact far more complex- although, as with this present crisis, airlines were quick to blame the war when their tottering operations crumbled. Then, as now, many made swingeing cuts in their operations in the hope of getting some compensation from the government, by blaming it all on the war.

I travelled internationally several times during that period, including to the Middle East, and the only airlines that seemed to be badly affected were US airlines.

Anyway, now, as then, certain worrying trends (for wannabes) will probably start to emerge:

- the selling of type ratings to gullible, and/or ruthless wannabes, in order to "be considered" for a job; the well-known BM modus operandi.

- the growth of a "second tier" of new recruits, on less favourable terms and conditions, and probably short-term contracts.

- the increase in the number of airlines looking to training organisations to provide a "one-shot" recruitment solution, and the subsequent ramping of charges by schools that are seen to be likely to provide a fast track to a job.

Unfortunately, the world has now changed, and we have to accept some new realities, unpalatable as they may be.

Very sad flying out of NCL this week, operating ex-Gill routes, and seeing all their aircraft parked up with snowplows parked in front of them. A reminder that most of our jobs hang by a not-too-strong thread.

Finally, the last time this happened, a large number of the recruits who got the first jobs when hiring started again, were in fact low-houred, newly-qualified guys. There are many reasons why that may be, but the point is that those who got qualified and were ready, got the jobs. Often it came down to who could get to a type-rating course the quickest... don't be fooled into believing that wannabes are automatically at the back of the queue, they aren't.