Do you really know where Syrian Chemical Weapons are?

[Lonewolf_50]

The Telegraph had an article that caught my eye this morning.

US and British plans to seize Syria's chemical weapons - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9889961/US-and-British-plans-to-seize-Syrias-chemical-weapons.html)

The crux of the matter is that you have to know where they are to get at them, either to destroy, protect (leave in place under guard) or to confiscate.

British intelligence believes that Syria has amassed an extensive arsenal of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), including nerve agents such as Sarin, and mustard gas. They have not been used and are considered to be well guarded by Syrian security forces.

Maybe now, but isn't that a bit of wishful thinking if the regime crumbles a bit more?
But militant Islamist groups are inside Syria fighting against the government and would be perfectly placed to raid stockpiles, intelligence sources have said.
They too need to know where the stuff is, though they may get good inside info from defecting soldiers. This is a bit of a lottery.
They said the most likely option to prevent the weapons falling into the hands of extremists would be to destroy stockpiles with air strikes.
If you actually know where they are, yes, and I hope any of our contributors who are still on active duty will hit what they aim at. Sincerely hope the targetting cell has good info to give you.
Alternatives include the use of special forces and troops to secure weapon sites in Syria if the government collapses.
Easy to say, a bit of chaos to pull off. When it's a moving target, leakers would be the rule, not the exception I expect.
An RAF regiment unit called the Defence Chemical Biological Radiological and Nuclear Wing, based at Winterbourne Gunner, Wilts, has been told that it should be prepared to work alongside the SAS in securing such sites in Syria at short notice.
Short notice ... mix that with the need to know where the stuff is, or isn't, and this could be sporting.
Last week, a US-based body known as the Strategic Working Group began rehearsing how stockpiles would be secured in the Middle East and the Pacific in the event of an international emergency.
All well and good, if your locating data is good.
MI5 has repeatedly warned that it is "only a matter of time" before extremist groups carry out a "chemical, biological or radiological attack" on a Western city.
Tokyo already having had its delightful day of a Sarin attack ... :(
British and US commanders agree that the West has paid "lip service" to training troops in WMD scenarios, focusing almost solely on counterinsurgency operations.
That's comforting.

Not sure how accurate this article is, but it seems to me to dodge the critical factor in any such scheme: do you really know where that stuff is?

[Courtney Mil]

British and US commanders agree that the West has paid "lip service" to training troops in WMD scenarios

Whoever made that statement clearly didn't spend years doing excercises in Europe during the Cold War. I came to love the inside on my NBC kit, colpro, entry/exit drills. I'm so indoctrinated that I still have a tray of Fuller's Earth inside my front door instead of a doormat.

[handysnaks]

We told you where the WMD in Iraq were didn't we........:E:p

[Lonewolf_50]

Courtney, if I'm never rigged out in MOPP 4 again, it will be too soon. :p

[NutLoose]

Whoever made that statement clearly didn't spend years doing excercises in Europe during the Cold War. I came to love the inside on my NBC kit, colpro, entry/exit drills. I'm so indoctrinated that I still have a tray of Fuller's Earth inside my front door instead of a doormat.

Yup, Blue Peter would weep to see what I could construct with a box of Bodge tape, several rolls of plastic sheeting and an assortment of broom handles....

I wonder if they're bringing Tony Blair out of retirement to tell them where they are?

[The Helpful Stacker]

I came to love the inside on my NBC kit, colpro, entry/exit drills.

Ahh, all those entry and exit drills we had to practice which, given my trade at the time, would have probably not been used. As one of TSW's finest we were almost gleefully informed by our resident Rock that were things to turn 'dirty' then the best we could hope for would be a 12x12 covered in CARM and learning to live for an age wearing our face wellies....

Luckily, as an auggie nurse, I'm now a little further up the pecking order for these things.:ok:

I'm so indoctrinated that I still have a tray of Fuller's Earth inside my front door instead of a doormat.

{Shudder} Fullers Earth. I remember some 'end of the world' scenario exercise that somehow saw us operating a refuelling site at the Harrier Strip on Otterburn for two weeks, rarely out of 3R, yet everyone who paid us a visit was somehow being immune to the effects of whatever death was floating through the air. At the end of that exercise I think I went through an entire bottle of Vosene trying to get that grey gunk out of my hair.

Blot, bang, rub my £$%&!!

[NutLoose]

When I came out of the RAF I moved into a house near Bedford to find they were quarrying the damn stuff next door and all the hedge rows were full of it.

[thing]

I was never convinced that fullers and blot bang rub would have been all that effective actually...

I was shelter marshall at Binbrook during the 80's and looking at the sheets of plastic and bodge tape to protect us against sarin and/or a couple of megatons of USSRs finest I came to the conclusion that it was probably better to strip the lot off and stroll home to die with the wife and kids. Call me a realist if you must...

[parabellum]

Intelligence at the time said the Iraqi chemicals etc. were trucked over the Syrian border and hidden in caves in the Bekar Valley, so maybe the Syrians put theirs in there too? If you really want to know where they are just ask the Israelis.

[GreenKnight121]

Whoever made that statement clearly didn't spend years doing excercises in Europe during the Cold War. I came to love the inside on my NBC kit, colpro, entry/exit drills. I'm so indoctrinated that I still have a tray of Fuller's Earth inside my front door instead of a doormat.

That was 20+ years ago... and in a completely different mental culture.

And even then it was a losing battle in many parts of the military.

As a USMC Sgt in 1988 I was assigned "collateral duty" as a team leader (1 of 4) for MAG-11's NBC group... all but the 4-5 admin personnel were "part-timers" with full-time duties elsewhere in the Group.

Almost none of us had, or ever would, attend the 2-week NBC training course that regulations required 100% of us to have attended immediately upon assignment to the NBC teams.

As team leader for the monitor/survey section I tried like h&ll to get my 10 men (including myself) sent through the school... in 4+ months I only got 1 man sent (not me), and then they decided that a 2x1/2-day refresher course would suffice instead of the 2-week course.


When I went through basic training in 1981 everyone was required to remove our masks and repeat our name & SSN out loud while in the gas chamber filled with tear gas... guaranteeing we would get exposed. This had a very definite result that we took things seriously.

By the time I left active duty in 1989, we were getting new Marines who hadn't even been required to take off their mask when in the gas chamber in basic!

I shudder to think what things are like now.

[fawkes]

I suspect that the whole NBC stance in the Cold war was really designed as a morale boosting exercise: realistically operating for any period of time in a contaminated environment would have been virtually impossible.

Even at sea with the relative advantages of unlimited quantities of washing down water and the ability to move away from clouds o agent etc, the logistics iof getting upper deck weapons crews and exposed boiler room personnel through the clensing station did not bear tooclose examination: a lot of folk weren't going to make it.

I am still surprisd tat we didn't keep canaries - the thought of managing to persuade one of my grumpy matelots to perform a "sniff test" to see if the air was OK seems laughable after a quarter of a Century.

Of course having any countermeasures in place means that an attack (or the threat of one) provides friction, but is not a devastation stopper to operations. CBRN is most effectiveagainst the unprotected - and the most effective thing of all is the effect f panic on unprotected civilian populations.

[Lordflasheart]

Cheer up Green Knight ! I see the Green Knights got one (the first ever) 'operational' sortie in at Yuma, before Friday's grounding. LFH

[NutLoose]

Sweating in hot sunshine in full NBC kit with a clear plastic oversuit like a Tesco ready cooked chicken with a broom and a bucket of soapy water to decontaminate a jet returning I knew we had already lost, especially when I saw pictures of the Russian tank with the jet engine mounted on the top they were using to do the same job.

The other prime turkey in the "Survive to Fight" book was the if you see a Nuclear explosion, lie down facing it tucking any exposed skin in (as houses, trees, and the local vicinity passes harmlessly over head) then get up and carry on.

[The Helpful Stacker]

Nutloose - Pass harmlessly over your head twice remember? Positive wave and negative wave. ;)

[27mm]

Ah yes, "Duck & Cover", the Civil defence mantra. Not to mention the delights of flying in AR5, with charcoal NBC inner suit in a hot & humid RAFG summer....:oh:

[BEagle]

Sweating in hot sunshine in full NBC kit with a clear plastic oversuit like a Tesco ready cooked chicken with a broom and a bucket of soapy water to decontaminate a jet returning I knew we had already lost, especially when I saw pictures of the Russian tank with the jet engine mounted on the top they were using to do the same job.

Ah - but the wonderful Apparatus Decontamination (Portable) was the best. "A bucket of soapy water and a stirrup pump. That'll show Ivan how well prepared we are for their nuclear nasties, chaps!"

The jet engine on an old tank was also handy for blasting unexploded JP233 bomblets and anti-personnel mines off sovietski runways. The boffins had assumed they'd use bulldozers.....:\

[Lonewolf_50]

Gentlemen, whilst this nostalgia is all well and good, the question to hand in this thread is the disposition of Syrian chemical weapons inventory.

Care to comment on that? ;)

[PURPLE PITOT]

I keep them in the attic so the kids can't mess with them.

[Pontius Navigator]

The other prime turkey in the "Survive to Fight" book was the if you see a Nuclear explosion, lie down facing it tucking any exposed skin in (as houses, trees, and the local vicinity passes harmlessly over head) then get up and carry on.
I liked the 'cold, clammy skin' bit but they never explained how you did that when you were both clad in full S&M kit.

[500N]

Lonewolf

At the start of the "war" in Syria, some wrote an article in the US
newspapers saying the US was watching and ready to act with soldiers
if any chemical weapons stockpiles were looking at falling into
the hands of the rebels - and even hinted that the US might act
if the Syrian Gov't decided to move them or use them !!!

Just recently, another article appeared when the rebels came
close to one of the bases.

The hint I got from that was that the US had people ready to go
if they needed to take a storage base to stop it falling into the wrong
hands. It wouldn't surprise me that they have soldiers waiting for
this exact scenario.

And I do think the US knows exactly where they all are in Syria,
far more than they did in Libya or Iraq.

Anyone care to comment ?

[Lonewolf_50]

And I do think the US knows exactly where they all are in Syria, far more than they did in Libya or Iraq.
If you replace the terms "all are" with "most of them are" and then make the caveat that among various interested nations -- US, Israel, UK, Turkey, Russians, Iran, and a few others -- it may be possible to assess where the bulk of the munitions are in terms of what the government ever admitted to having. Any "secret sites" remain an unknown, with maybe Israel, Russia, and Iran having a given cache marked as probable.

Not sure Israel shares it all with Washington.
In fact, I'm pretty sure they don't.
They got bitten by W when he refused to back their play in re the Syrian nuke weapons site (which they took out a few years ago), and do not have a warm and friendly relationship with his successor. Would they pony up if needed to help a NATO or US mission work? Probably.

The Russians, on the other hand, and likely to keep their information close to the vest. If things go pear shaped in Syria, this allows Vlad and his team a bit of a PR coup when they swoop in and secure a cache nobody else knew about. It is my estimation that the Russians have contingency plans for swooping in and securing no small amount of the Syrian cache, for their own political reasons.

[500N]

"Not sure Israel shares it all with Washington.
In fact, I'm pretty sure they don't."

+ 1

I think the US now "asks" the Israelis not to do something
as opposed to before where it was maybe a "joint" strategy.

I think the Israelis took a leaf out of the US book and now
do what is in the Israelis best interests first and then worry
about the US and others, the Syrian Nuke one being a good
example.

Interesting re Russians.

[Lonewolf_50]

Not sure what helicopters the top notch Speznaz types use, but my money is on an air assault type raid should my suspected Russian contingency plan need to be put into action.

[Lyneham Lad]

Very unclear as to which side is to blame and the type of chemical agent, but it does seem likely from the reports that one has been used.

Reuters report. (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/19/uk-syria-crisis-chemical-idUKBRE92I0A420130319)

Ah well, at least the POTUS is on hand to see his red-line being crossed...

The were lots of rumours about SF from various countries being on hand to intervene - who will make the first move? Or will there just be more posturing and meaningless platitudes?

[500N]

That report is about as vague as can be.

For all we know a whole bucket of Chlorine
could have been tipped over.

[Lightning Mate]

They're here....

http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu82/Lightning_29/sandcastle_zps5abce26c.jpg

[AR1]

And this is where it all gets sticky.

Scenario 1. Rebels capture and have the ability to handle and operate chemical weapons, knowing full well that any external support will evaporate at their confirmed use.

Scenario 2. Government forces who have the capability launch a weapon knowing that the world will turn against them.

Scenario 3 as two, but done deliberately to invoke the reaction to scenario 1.

And that's why.... We should keep our mouths shut and our noses out.

[Cows getting bigger]

Call me a cynic, but I'm pretty sure that the only CW that the West really has a handle on are the stockpiles in Continental United States. :ugh:

[Ronald Reagan]

We should keep out of this. Its best Assad remains in power, better the devil we know! Looking at Libya, that place has turned into a disaster, would have been better for Gaddafi to remain, he could maintain order and keep the country together. I would even go as far as saying Iraq was better under Saddam. What is has turned into now is just terrible. On ITV last night I saw the guy who started smashing down the statue of Saddam back in 2003, basically he said life in Saddam's prison was better than living in Baghdad today!!!! Even Afghanistan which was more justified than the others will probably turn back into what it was before once western forces leave.
Don't get me started on what was the madness of Vietnam, all those lives, all that effort, all the cost and still the west did not get its desired outcome!

I think from now on there should be no more interventions by UK forces unless their deployment can pass a public referendum. The only exception to that would be if our homeland was attacked directly. Most people are sick of these interventions. Neither Labour or the Conservatives can be trusted. The politicians will have to present their arguments if they feel we should be involved, then the people will make the final choice. At the end of the day they are our troops and its our money being spent, so it should be the choice of the people.

[500N]

"Don't get me started on what was the madness of Vietnam, all those lives, all that effort, all the cost and still the west did not get its desired outcome!"


And now the US is becoming friends with Vietnam (common enemy)
and sending ships to Vietnam and conducted exercises with them !

[Wensleydale]

I am still surprisd tat we didn't keep canaries - the thought of managing to
persuade one of my grumpy matelots to perform a "sniff test" to see if the air
was OK seems laughable after a quarter of a Century.



We once tried to get canaries to volunteer for active service, but they proved to be yellow!

[BEagle]

Caged songbirds were to be seen at KKIA during GW1. I'm not sure whether they were bought as morale-boosting pets or whether they were employed to back up the (unreliable) CAM system...??

Chirpy little things though - tweeting away quite happily every time we came in to fly. I hope they found new homes after the War and weren't just turned loose to fend for themselves....

[Lonewolf_50]

We should keep out of this. Its best Assad remains in power, better the devil we know! Looking at Libya, that place has turned into a disaster, would have been better for Gaddafi to remain, he could maintain order and keep the country together.
Sure, Ron.

You do relaize that one day, The Mad Colonel was going to die. Then what?

Power struggle.

They had no means of peaceful transfer of power. All supporting the insurrection did was to ensure that the date was moved left, rather than deferred.

[AR1]

One of the problems with the canaries was keeping them alive during the initial assault so they could be used for the sniff test later. Porton Down had some concepts in hand, but they didn't really fly. Here's an artists impression.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v449/n7165/images/449981a-i1.0.jpg

[teeteringhead]

So that's what the parrots were for in Belize!!