kill a chicken to scare the monkeys

[ORAC]

Defense News: Chinese Generals Call For War With Just About Everyone (http://blogs.defensenews.com/intercepts/2013/01/chinese-generals-call-for-war-with-just-about-everyone/)

Veteran journalist and writer David Lague, now with Reuters in Hong Kong, has written in great detail in a new report, China’s Military Hawks Take The Offensive, that Chinese senior military officers are taking to expressing their calls for war against regional neighbors to the airwaves of Chinese Tv and radio, Internet blogs, and public speeches.

Lague looks at the recent speech by Chinese Lt. General Ren Haiquan at an October gathering of international military officers at Melbourne’s Crown Casino. The speech began nice enough, but quickly degenerated into a rant against Japan’s control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Japanese officers, including Army Lt. General Yoshiaki Nakagawa, left immediately after the speech.

Key Excerpts:

“Ren’s provocative dinner talk was no isolated outburst. His message was typical of the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming from senior officers in the People’s Liberation Army.”

“But the combative streak speaks to profound shifts in Chinese politics and foreign policy that transcend the heat of the moment. The more provocative of these officers call for ‘short, sharp wars’ to assert China’s sovereignty. Others urge Beijing to ‘strike first’, ‘prepare for conflict’ or ‘kill a chicken to scare the monkeys’.”

“Among the most bellicose are in a group of about 20 military officers who have become star media and online performers in recent years, including Air Force Colonel Dai Xu, retired army Major General Luo Yuan and Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong.”

“The Air Force Colonel, Dai Xu, is renowned for his regular calls to arms. With China in dispute for much of last year with Japan in the East China Sea and Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea, Dai argued a short, decisive war, like China’s 1962 border clash with India, would deliver long-term peace. He also said Washington would not risk war with China over these territorial spats.”

“‘Since we have decided that the U.S. is bluffing in the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to these empty provocations with something real,’ he wrote in an August 28 commentary published in the Chinese-language edition of the Global Times.”

“‘This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia,’ added Dai, a researcher at Beijing University’s China Centre for Strategic Studies. ‘We only need to kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to heel.’”

“Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong is the best-known of the hawk commentators, appearing frequently as a program host on CCTV 7 and other state-run television outlets. Virulently anti-American, he has a low opinion of U.S. military capabilities and willingness to suffer casualties. The United States would ‘run like a rabbit’ if China went to war with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands, he told state television on August 12.”

[hval]

Unfortunately Lt. General Ren Haiquan is quite possibly correct with respect to any response from the U.S.A.

[SASless]

Probably true.....but then this ol' Rabbit has got some long teeth! That and if we go to war....we write off their Debt and call it a deal! That might be the answer to our Debt problem....so they might want to think carefully about all this.

[hval]

SASless,

The U.S.A.'s original aim, going back many years was actually to become indebted to China to such an extent, and then get someone to upset China sufficiently that they start a war.

Excellent tactics. Worthy of not only a ten year plan, but also a twenty ear plan.

[ORAC]

Chinese army told: "be well-prepared for a war" (http://www.thecommentator.com/article/2487/chinese_army_told_be_well_prepared_for_a_war)

China could be preparing for war, according to the latest directive to the People's Liberation Army

..........Allen Carlson, an associate professor of government at Cornell University, told the Voice of America news website that China could be merely sabre rattling.

“I still think, and perhaps I am wrong, that most of this is bluffing, an extreme form of such an action, and not one that is not without the risk of escalation, but still falls short of an actual declaration of war, and from direct military engagement,” he said........

[Herod]

Just as well the "Mutt Romney" didn't win the election. From what I could gather from the debates he would have declared both Russia and China as enemies and attacked Iran on his first day in office. Not the wisest of moves.

[Willard Whyte]

Could be worse Herod. Could've had a second term of Oh--sh*t...

[susanlikescats]

The U.S.A.'s original aim, going back many years was actually to become indebted to China to such an extent, and then get someone to upset China sufficiently that they start a war. Excellent tactics. Worthy of not only a ten year plan, but also a twenty year plan.

Go check how many components of your average piece of military electronics are sourced from China. Then tell me again who had the excellent plan.

[GreenKnight121]

Go check how many components of your average piece of military electronics are sourced from China. Then tell me again who had the excellent plan.

Sourced... as in: assembled, not fabricated.

The components come from Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, etc... and are assembled into complete units in China.

Take China out of the chain and someone else steps in to do the final assembly... perhaps even plants in the US?

[susanlikescats]

I was recently part of an exercise which followed the supply chain for some embedded systems back to source. I won't quote the exact figure but let's say a 'substantial portion' of the elements required to fabricate the components for these systems originated in China.

Comments which could be construed as perpetuating the myth that all the Chinese can do is assemble or appropriate the products of a superior western brain are less than helpful. They simply form part of a long-running back story which encourages a nation itching to prove how far it has progressed militarily to do just that.

Anyway, to return to the OP, Ren Haiquan may be making the noise but Zhang Zhaozhong is an even more amusing fellow. He has many interesting ideas on asymmetric warfare...

[jumbojet]

Back in the 1940's one Asian empire "woke the sleeping tiger!" The Chinese should read their History books.

[Arcanum]

Take China out of the chain and someone else steps in to do the final assembly... perhaps even plants in the US?

Maybe 10-years ago.

China has a near stranglehold on some key rare earth metals which are required to everything from smartphones to lasers to weapons. China briefly cut Japan off last year in a spat over fishing and are reputedly restricting supply to companies that don't base themselves in China.

Rare earth supply chain: Industry (http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4210064/Rare-earth-supply-chain--Industry-s-common-cause)

In defense apps, dysprosium, neodymium and yttrium are used in equipment made by Boeing, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon. Defense platforms that use rare earths include helicopters (to quiet rotor noise), tanks (for laser gun sights), radar (to image targets more than 22 miles away), missiles (for navigation magnets) and the hybrid electric motors the U.S. Navy is using to cut fuel costs in its advanced destroyers.

China doesn't just assemble products anymore, but own everything from the mines where materials are dug out, the shipping lines that transport the materials and the factories that create the components and final assembly.

Cut China off and the West could not just step back in straight away. We've been out of the game for too many years and have lost much experience in industrial production that would need to be built up again.

The major advantage the US has is cheap energy from the shale gas boom. This will bring more companies back to the US because energy intensive manufacturing is no longer a prohibitive cost. But it will take time before the US economy wouldn't be crippled by a cessation in trading with China (and China wouldn't do well out of that either). Other than Germany the rest of Europe is unlikely to get it together enough to come up with a coherent energy / manufacturing policy.

[West Coast]

Sure are a bunch of google experts here. A search engine isn't the same as informed opinion.

[Load Toad]

The US loyalty lies with the KMT. When the KMT becomes influential in (Mainland) China again and how that happens is the interesting bit.

[Milo Minderbinder]

Time to go and burn the Summer Palace again methinks
Its only a regular humiliation which keeps those Chinese in check

[NutLoose]

I'm sure they've been putting mind altering drugs in their curries, every time I go to the Chinese I have this drunken stupor come over me beforehand.

[Buster Hyman]

I'd say he was just upset at the cost of parking at Crown.

‘This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia,’

Really?...I guess I haven't been keeping up with current events. :confused:

[Load Toad]

Obviously not - the Chinese have been arguing at some length with the Vietnamese over the Islands in the SC Sea ('East Sea') to the Vietnamese.

The US wants access to Vietnamese ports (guess where they are..the East Sea) and will step up 'cooperation' to achieve this.

China is quite aware this relationship building is going on.

[Lantern10]

Surely if China stops bankrolling the USA the USA will be crippled anyway.

[Buster Hyman]

The US wants access to Vietnamese ports (guess where they are..the East Sea) and will step up 'cooperation' to achieve this.
...and that makes them a "running dog" for the good ol'???:confused:

[Load Toad]

As far as China is concerned, yes of course it does.

The Russians want to use Vietnamese ports too & Vietnamese are very suspicious and deeply distrustful of China's territorial ambitions. China crows on about 'win-win' and cooperation but at the first sign it isn't going to 'win the cooperation' acts like a spoilt belligerent child.

[West Coast]

Lantern

What do you think it would do the China if they were to intentionally try and harm the economic relationship with the nation that represents it's second largest trading partner?

Intentionally harming a symbiotic relationship is akin to suicide.

[Load Toad]

China doesn't have anywhere near enough domestic demand for products - if it loses its key customers it will have a lot of unemployed poor people. The CCP is **** scared of unemployed poor people; they know exactly what they are capable of.

[500N]

"Surely if China stops bankrolling the USA the USA will be crippled anyway."


Don't forget, all the debt China carries will be worth a lot less
plus as the two posters above me said !

China is already under pressure because of other countries taking
the low cost jobs that they once did. The one thing going for them
is they have the people, infrastructure, material to build the item and most things are close to the ports for export. Not always the case in Pakistan,
India, Africa.

[ORAC]

View from Taiwan. The China Post: somtimes Wars Break Out by Accident (http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/the-china-post/joe-hung/2013/01/21/368033/Sometimes-wars.htm)

Russia: is China-Japan War Imminent? (http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_01_17/Is-China-Japan-war-imminent/)

Australia: A Real Risk in South China Sea (http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/editorial/a-real-risk-in-south-china-sea-20130120-2d14p.html)

Economist: The Drums of War (http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21569757-armed-clashes-over-trivial-specks-east-china-sea-loom-closer-drums-war)

[ORAC]

Sydney Morning Herald: Shun US 'tiger' and Japanese 'wolf', Chinese colonel warns (http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/shun-us-tiger-and-japanese-wolf-chinese-colonel-warns-20130122-2d52d.html)

BEIJING: A Chinese military officer has raised the spectre of nuclear weapons and warned Australia not to side with the United States and Japan as a territorial dispute in the East China Sea continues to escalate.

Senior Colonel Liu Mingfu, of the National Defence University, blamed America’s ‘‘orchestration’’ and Japan’s ‘‘militarism’’ for rising tensions over disputed islands known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China. ‘‘America is the global tiger and Japan is Asia’s wolf and both are now madly biting China,’’ Colonel Liu said. ‘‘Of all the animals, Chinese people hate the wolf the most.’’ China was a peaceful nation but it would fight to the death if seriously attacked, he said.

Both sides and the US have in recent days traded strident warnings over alleged territorial incursions, while holding out hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. Diplomats privately warn of a growing risk of accident or miscalculation.

Asked about the People’s Liberation Army fighting capability, Colonel Liu referred to the PLA department that houses China’s strategic missile and nuclear arsenal. He raised a hypothetical scenario that he said would justify a nuclear attack, while clarifying that he was not calling upon China to take such measures. ‘‘If this Japanese wolf again attacks America’s Pearl Harbour or Australia’s Darwin, how do you know it wouldn’t receive another nuclear bomb?’’ Colonel Liu said. ‘‘The world would hail if Japan receives such a blow. I don’t want to mention China here, as it is sensitive,’’ he added.

Colonel Liu is one of a group of outspoken hawkish PLA officers who do not claim to speak on behalf of the leadership but are given licence to speak stridently on some issues at certain times. Foreign diplomats say they can serve to provide unofficial warnings, test foreign reactions and rally nationalistic support for the Communist Party or sections of it. They can also complicate China’s diplomatic objectives and place leaders under pressure to demonstrate their nationalistic credentials.

Colonel Liu directly warned Australia not to follow the US or Japan into any military conflict with China. He said Australia should play the role of a ‘‘kind-hearted lamb’’ and China would discourage it from being led astray. ‘‘Australia should never play the jackal for the tiger or dance with the wolf,’’ he said.

Colonel Liu asked that his message be conveyed directly to the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, as she prepares to deliver a major speech on national security.

Like her predecessors, Ms Gillard has maintained that Australia will not have to choose between its economic and security interests.

‘‘American hegemony is not at its dawn and not at its zenith,’’ Colonel Liu said. ‘‘It is at its sunset and night is coming.’’.....

[Load Toad]

China has a lot of internal 'issues' that are coming to a head. It will need lots of outside 'diversions' to feed the people.

The Army also has a power game going on.

Frankly the CCP can shut it's gob until it has a functioning democracy, rule of law, transparency, human rights etc.

Then it can lecture others,

[ORAC]

Official: Chinese Frigate Locked Radar on Japanese Navy (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130205/DEFREG03/302050009/Official-Chinese-Frigate-Locked-Radar-Japanese-Navy?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE)

TOKYO — A Chinese military frigate has locked its weapon-targeting radar on a Japanese navy vessel on at least one occasion, Japan’s defense minister said Feb. 5, in an apparent upping of the stakes in a bitter territorial row.

“On January 30, something like fire-control radar was directed at a Japan Self-Defense Maritime escort ship in the East China Sea. The defense ministry today confirmed radar for targeting was used,” Itsunori Onodera told reporters in Tokyo. Onodera said a Japanese military helicopter was also locked with a similar radar a few days earlier.

“Directing such radar is very abnormal,” he said. “We recognize it would create a very dangerous situation if a single misstep occurred. We will seek the Chinese side’s self-restraint from taking such dangerous action.”

The move is an apparent ramping up of an already tense situation in the East China Sea, where Asia’s two largest economies are at loggerheads over the sovereignty of an uninhabited island chain. On Feb. 5, Tokyo summoned China’s envoy in protest at the presence a day earlier of Chinese government ships in the waters around the islands.

No mention was made in the earlier announcement of the actions of any Chinese military vessels. It was not believed that the military ships had been in what Japan considers its waters.

“The foreign ministry summoned the Chinese ambassador over ships entering the waters near Senkaku islands,” said an official, referring to a chain claimed as the Diaoyus by Beijing.

[Mk 1]

it may be a good way for the Chinese to get a picture of what countermeasures are employed by the Japanese vessels/aircraft painted by the radar. When you know what countermeasures are going to be employed the chinese can deploy ECCM etc.

Still, 'tis a risky game they play....

[ORAC]

All I can say is - wow!

Captain Fanell's comments are from minutes 21-32. He states they are stripted comments, as such they have to have been pre-approved, and in view of their nature at the highest level. They are very frank......

Honest Opinions on China (http://www.informationdissemination.net/2013/02/honest-opinions-on-china.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+InformationDissemination+%28Information +Dissemination%29&utm_content=Google+Reader)

At the USNI/AFCEA West Conference last week there was an excellent panel on the last day that focused on the operational challenges and partnership opportunities that exist with China. It started out as a casual discussion about China, but about 21 minutes into the panel Captain James Fanell, Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence and Information Operations for US Pacific Fleet decided he was going to give his honest opinion.

nLrO1GI8ZIY&feature=player_embedded&list=PLWX4R7nG6a8moZ0bIUtkBBIqaOkbr85zb#!

In China it is illegal to give an honest opinion about China, and there are times I wonder if the same law exists in Washington, DC. Several folks are discussing Captain Fanell's comments, even if he is just a Captain. I leave my thoughts over at the USNI Blog (http://blog.usni.org/2013/02/06/honesty-can-be-uncomfortable).

[ORAC]

Defense News: China Accuses Japan of ‘Smear’ Over Radar Incident (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130207/DEFREG03/302070011/China-Accuses-Japan-8216-Smear-8217-Over-Radar-Incident?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE)

BEIJING — Beijing accused Tokyo on Feb. 7 of mounting a smear campaign after Japan said a Chinese frigate had locked its weapons-targeting radar on a Japanese warship in a “threat of force”.

The world’s second- and third-largest economies are at loggerheads over uninhabited, Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea, known as Senkaku in Tokyo and Diaoyu by Beijing, which claims them. The radar incident, which Japan said happened last week, marked the first time the two nations’ navies have locked horns in a dispute that has some commentators warning about a possible armed conflict.

Asked to respond to Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera’s description of the radar targeting as a “threat of force,” Beijing foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said: “Recently Japan has been hyping up crisis and deliberately creating tension to smear China’s image. This move is counter to the improvement of relations,” she told a regular briefing. “The current problem is not China being assertive but about Japanese ships’ and airplanes’ repeated illegal activities in the airspace and waters of the Diaoyu islands, which undermine China’s territorial sovereignty.”

The long-running row over the islands intensified in September, when Tokyo nationalized part of the chain, triggering fury in Beijing and huge anti-Japan demonstrations across China. Beijing has repeatedly sent ships and aircraft near the islands, and both sides have scrambled fighter jets, though there have been no clashes.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Feb. 7 that the “window for dialogue” must remain open but reiterated his rebuke to Beijing over the “extremely regrettable” naval confrontation. “But we will not close the window of dialogue. This is most important,” said Abe. “I would like China to return to a more open attitude towards our strategic partnership.”

Abe on Feb. 6 had described the Chinese action as “dangerous” and ”provocative.” Onodera told parliament on Feb. 7 that the Chinese radar lock amounted to a ”threat of force” but also called for some mechanism to allow defense authorities to communicate with each other. “We think this is a threat of force, as defined in the U.N. Charter. But what is most important is to prevent incidents like this from recurring in the future,” he said. “I also think it is necessary for Japan and China to have a means of consultation on maritime safety issues.”

In Washington, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Feb. 6 urged China to avoid confrontation and seek peaceful dialogue with Japan and other countries over territorial disputes. Asked about the China-Japan tensions, Panetta voiced concern that “it’s the kind of situation where there are territorial claims that could ultimately get out of hand.” He added: “One country or the other could react in a way that could create an even greater crisis.”

The U.S. defense chief said China, the United States and other countries should work together to address “common challenges,” including piracy, natural disasters and territorial disputes.”

It is believed the island chain — which is also claimed by Taiwan — sits atop vast mineral reserves.

[ORAC]

Defense News: Chinese Troops 20 Kilometers Across Disputed Border: India (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130426/DEFREG/304260018/Chinese-Troops-20-Kilometers-Across-Disputed-Border-India)

NEW DELHI — New Delhi on Friday said Chinese soldiers have advanced nearly 12 miles (20 kilometers) into Indian-claimed territory after intruding across the disputed border earlier this month, a report said.

Defence Secretary Shashi Kant Sharma and other military officials presented a report on the incursion to a parliamentary watchdog, the Press Trust of India reported, marking a renewal of tensions between the Asian neighbours. Sharma also told MPs attending the meeting that India has deployed troops in the contested region to "keep a close watch on the border,” it quoted unnamed sources as saying.

India and China have an unresolved boundary dispute, and relations are often prickly and marked by mutual suspicion — a legacy of a brief border war in 1962.

A senior defence ministry official confirmed the meeting took place and that Sharma briefed MPs on the alleged Chinese advance but he did not elaborate..........

According to officials in New Delhi, a platoon of Chinese troops set up a camp inside Indian territory on April 15. India has since called on the Chinese soldiers to withdraw, but several meetings between local army commanders and diplomats from both sides have failed to resolve the stand-off.

China has denied any wrongdoing..........

[Heathrow Harry]

wellll - the Vietnamese have fought the Chinese more recently than they fought the Yanks -and won IIRC

[Lonewolf_50]

Worthy of not only a ten year plan, but also a twenty ear plan
Hmm, our Plans section had a total of 10 people in it, so I guess we wrote a lot of twenty ear plans. :};)

[Heathrow Harry]

ORAC - the Chinese-Indian border dispute could have been solved at any time in the last 60 years if the Indians were willing to sit down and discuss matters with the Chinese.

The whole dispute is a classic, much studied in Political Science Depts at universities etc. The Indians refuse to give up an inch of territory - some of which no Indian has ever been to. The Chinese will negotiate but only if it's a clean sheet - for years they have made it pretty clear that they will give up claims in the Eastern Sector if the Indians give up their claims in the Western Sector