Is The UK Going Into Recession etc?

[fireflybob]

Well, I am sitting here seriously considering selling the house and getting out of the property market for a while and renting in the interim.

Surely the property market bubble is going to burst just like it did many year ago? The base rate being dropped by a quarter % yesterday is only going to (eventually) accelerate the process.

Listening to some of the experts on Radio 4 recently who commented that advertising revenue is the best barometer of the economy. Apparently these revenues have dropped substantially and this bodes ill for the future.

Just wondered what you all thought - what effect is this going to have on aviation and are we going to see a rerun of the times when companies like Air Europe and DanAir went to the wall?

[adouglas]

I work in the commercial property market - and reports I read this morning (By PriceWaterhouse etc.) all reckon that we are going into recession. They estimate that we will move out of it in 18 months time. Because the market hasn;t been oversupplied as it was in the last recession and the banks haven't leant stupidly, the effects on residential property shouldn't be so bad (famous last words, hey?).
What does this mean for the aviation industry? It means I am leaving soon and heading for the aviation industry!

[Lawyerboy]

For what it's worth (and I may as well get this in before it's moved off to the windswept wastes of Non-Air Transport Issues), I act for banks in relation to commercial lending, both on the investment and development side, and I'm not seeing much of a slow down in that arena. Nor, while we're on the subject, are lenders doing silly things like lending 90%, 100% or even 110% of the value of the property anymore, as they were back in the late 80's/early 90's.

We may have a slow down, but I don't reckon there'll be a turnaround.

[GustyOrange]

I don't think we will have a recession, at least technically (defined as 2 quarters of falling output). However there is no doubt that we are having a slowdown. This problem stems from the states where we have seen a massive reduction in capital spending from American companies ie it is the American consumer continuing to spend that is holding things up. Fortunately recent employment data from over there has been strong, suggesting things won't collapse soon.

However, because of the slowdown companies are sending their executives travelling less frequently and since these guys sit at the front of the plane the seats are still getting filled, but it's the wrong seats!

Hope this makes sense as I've had a few drinks ! :D :D

[fobotcso]

Latest news is that we in UK are technically in recession; but you would not think so from the bouyant retail market.

ffb; one of us is wrong! I've just committed additional mortgage and spare capital to invest in a second home to rent to students. Sunday Times (or Times?) recently published an article saying that this was the way to go.

The rents will pay the mortgage interest. The house market will continue to rise and when I sell I'll be able to buy that big yacht and sail around the world. Can't be bad eh?

I wouldn't sell if you don't have to. The interest on your capital will barely pay your rent and you'll gradually find that you can't afford to get back into property at the level you would like.

Remember, buy land now. They're not making it any more!

[VFE]

I heard it was just the UK Manufacturing Industry that was 'technically' in a recession and not the whole country. Has this changed then?

VFE.

[GlueBall]

U.S.A. IS in a recession, and when the U.S. sneezes then Europe catches cold.

Wall Street is on the skids. Most Tech stocks are in the junk yard. Business travel is the worst in 15 years; most air carriers are reporting operating losses. Massive tech industry layoffs. Many freight dogs at Atlas, Arrow, ATI, Fine, Gemini, Kitty Hawk, Polar, are furloughed.
:(

[twistedenginestarter]

FireflyBob - don't sell your house, but worry about the airline business.

Business Class is already well down. Next must be the lower end. No chance that Easy and Ryan can stay out of bankruptcy. And if you look at their recent results you'll see that.....the World is completely illogical.

I need a skirt
;) ;) ;)