Is there really going to be a pilot shortage?

[Dublinflyer]

I have read in a lot of threads here that the industry is facing a shortage of pilots in thenot so distant future. Is this true or is it just wishful thinking by people who are trying to break into the industry. People like me!!!

[trolleydollylover]

I dont know can anybody help us.

Does anybody have the location of these reports that say that there is going to be a Pilot SHORTAGE, in the next several years. With hints that the airline industry is expanding, retirement of Captain and a large increase in regional jobs, can anybody substantiate this info. I have a meeting tomorrow with the Big Kahoona at the bank and I need to be able to fire from the hip and make every shot count as I am about to leave a well paid job. They are not happy about that.

This post is also in the Questions / Wannabees Forum


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Whoa there bigfella, whoa!

[village flyer]

Read a very good report a few years ago in a rag entitled "stop dreaming, start flying".
Unfortunately the article was US based only, but explained the growth in the industry, ageing pilots, pressure on training schools etc. very good read.
There is a web-site entitled the same and I believe it is a drive in the states to encourage more people to take up aviation, with a view to going commercial.
In this respect it may be a little biased, however it fairly convinced me.

I believe I still have it and can refer the proper title later.

VF

[airtaxi]

It seems to me that there never seems to be a shortage of pilots, just a shortage of experienced/type rated pilots.

Those in command of the green stuff tend, quite naturally, to 'poach' already qualified pilots if at all possible which may be good for the balance book but is really a lack of investment and doesn't help the poor chap just starting out.

I suppose you could say that about many other professions so what does any one else think?

P.S I'm not bitter and twisted-honest!

[Rusty Cessna]

I have kind of lost faith in the Airline Pilot shortage, I believe it does exist due to captains retiring and fleet expansions and so forth, but I don't believe it is going to be felt drastically due to the many many qualified pilots out there.

I do however have faith in the Military pilot shortage. I think all three services are short of pilots, and I know the Navy is really short. I think the Navy are so low because there are no Sea Harrier pilots making the course. However I personally think this will go go very shortly, simply because all entry pilots (I think) are getting streamed for Harrier immediately.

Therefore the slots will soon get filled up, and the inevitable failure rate will cause there to be a lot of Rotary pilots aswell, and the time it takes for the people going Rotary to get sorted out, will mean big waits for all flying to start.

However I don't really know enough to have a sound understanding, so if I have anything wrong please correct me!

Thanks,
Rusty.

[low n' slow]

What I've heard through my dad, who's already in the buisness with SAS here in sweden, is that SAS will need about 100 pilots per year for the next five yrs. I'm not shure if this is supposed to make me happy or not as I believe that they're looking for type-rated pilots. Rumour has it that this is the situation for many of the major airlines in europe. However, it's a different view to this subject if you're already an active commercial pilot. Many of my friends have not been successful in getting a job, eventhough there's a claimed pilot shortage. I don't quite know what to believe!
good luck all!/lns

[foghorn]

Don't worry, soon the pool of type-rated pilots will dry up, and despite what some people think there is a limited group of people in the Southern Hemisphere with the relevant work rights, motivation to move here and access to funds to convert their licenses.

Then the airlines will be forced to offer the low-hours self sponsored guys a chance or else the shellsuits will be disappointed when their yearly Majorca package gets cancelled due to lack of pilots.

It might come sooner than you think - it's simple market economics - unless of course the wider economy goes base over apex first.

[This message has been edited by foghorn (edited 16 May 2001).]

[JB007]

Hang-on in there guys, give it another 12 months...

The experianced pool is slowly but surely drying up and airlines are increasing fleet sizes year by year.

I've seen figures predicted that very good major Uk airlines will be short by in approx 12 months time....it's pretty horrific!!!

Until then...guess i'll just keep my paper-round!!!

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Regards JB007!
[email protected]
Flight Ops,Crewing and Dispatch Moderator

[This message has been edited by JB007 (edited 16 May 2001).]