SDSR versus Real World Events

[MaroonMan4]

I do not think that I am the only one that has noticed that in the majority of threads all of the military posters (and some civilian and ex military) comment in the lack of strategic thinking or execution in the SDSR.

There has also been certain amount of complication created by some leading politicians, HMG departments and media where the true nature of the SDSR cuts and potential future risks to the UK and British Nationals is being lost by careful spin to lose the true impact in other headlines, including cuts to NHS, Welfare and MoD procurement mismanagement.

Taking it from this esoteric viewpoint to a personal topical one, I was out at my local near a secret Hampshire airbase yesterday evening, with people that I regularly socialise with and even though just a routine green wokka mate they were genuinely shocked to see me. The locals consisted of city types, ex servicemen, farmers and a few local business owners (fair cross section of society, certainly for my neck of the woods).

This element of Middle England were genuinely expecting HMG and the MoD to have visible and credible actions to rescue those stuck in Libya. All of them had images of a Falklands style task force leaving harbour with decks full of helicopters ready to position itself should the civilian charter option not work. They were all expecting Hercs to pre-position to Malta with defence parties to be ready at a drop of a hat to extract British Nationals (and in a force for good, anyone else that wanted to leave the country).

I am loyal to the end, and did not rise to this obvious misalignment of public expectations and I am sure that those that need to are considering many options. But, I cannot escape from the essential fact that however broke we are and whatever the National Security Council believe is going to threaten UK in the future, that the current SDSR is placing this country at risk and that the British people have absolutely no idea on what these cuts mean to them.

Even the much lauded Afghan pull out will not deliver the spectrum, reaction and reach of capabilities that the UK once had. It appears that RWS is truly dead and the NAO Battlefield Helicopter lift requirement/shortfall is to be ignored, a UK amphibious capability is either being cut completely or reduced to a phoney level and of course the axing of Harriers, Nimrod/MPA and carriers with no method of rapidly filling the capability gap.

No one (not even the best brains in RUSI or the FCO) would have envisaged this wave of Middle Eastern 'revolution' and yet everyone appears to be lulling themselves into a belief of 'capability holidays', 'seedcorning capabilities' and 'accepting capability gaps'.

I acknowledge that we are broke, and of course the MoD Procurement process needs to get sorted (and unusually there has been much sense on the Dr Fox Spending thread on procurement and project management), but as someone that was having a drink with a snap shot of British society then the HMG have got it's work cut out in aligning the expectations of the British public as they are willing to swallow the GOvt's and media's spin on everyone sharing the pain with cuts, but they are certainly unaware of the level of cuts and what it means to their defence and the defence of those in shipping lanes or countries overseas.

Hopefully Libya will be sorted by civilian charters and the NEO thread turns out to be a load of hot air, but what will be next (natural disaster, more NEO, energy/food security or war fighting - nothing is inconceivable in today's uncertain environment) and what will the British public expect it's Govt and Military to do on it's behalf?

I believe that there is a widening chasm of what the British public expect and want from it's military and what current Government are prepared to fund, and sadly HMG are not being honest with the British public in re-aligning those expectations by informing them of the true consequences and reduction in capabilities that are as a result of the current (and projected) cuts.

Just a thought after a night in the local pub:confused:

[Red Line Entry]

Well, if you could have persuaded everyone in the pub (plus every other man, woman and child in the UK) to donate an additional £50 per year in taxes, then the resulting £3Bn per annum would sort out the problem!...for now at least..

[MaroonMan4]

Red Line,

That is just it-they probably would if someone told them the consequences of the current cuts being made. They truly believed that we as a military could get together a Falklands style task force brimming with helicopters and C130s ready to preposition at short notice - and as I said they were shocked that we hadn't already dispatched a force just in case the civ charter option fell through.

The British public does not understand capability gaps, holidays or seed corning - and no one is telling them of the true implications of not having Harrier or Nimrod or enough helicopters to lift it's troops/supplies/civilians, rather instead to lose the true impact of the cuts in the back ground noise of other cuts and headline grabbing news.

I believe that if the British public knew that it's extra £50 was definitely going to it's military it would gladly cough up for their defence, both at home and overseas.

[Just This Once...]

From my own recollections of SDSR the FCO were quite damming of the process & ridiculous timescales, successfully distancing themselves from the 'Strategic Review' at quite an early stage. Whilst this may have done little to help the military the individuals from the FCO used similar emotive language as the military people when voicing their justifiable concerns.

The FCO is suffering its own funding crisis at a time of world instability. Perhaps the FCO has only ever been a fair-weather friend to the MoD but with both departments broke their is little either can do to help out. I almost feel sorry for the FCO reps that are being forced in front of the cameras to explain themselves - given their pivotal role in all this mess you never actually see a Treasury spokesman when the going gets tough...

[kiwibrit]

If the British public at large are sufficiently stupid to believe that they could have a Falklands-style operation, they deserve any government they get. It has been made crystal clear by the news media that our forces a stretched to the limit - even for supporting Afghanistan, and that our carrier capability has been eliminated.

[MaroonMan4]

JTO,

Exactly and totally agree-and HMG/HMT should be honest with the British public on what the consequences of these cuts are-if 'we are all in it together' then at least inform the British people of exactly what they are in for with these cuts.

Honestly and transparently align expectations, rather than pretend that Frontline services are not being cut and that the defence/interests of the British people are not being compromised.

[Top Bunk Tester]

BBC News - Libya unrest: Rescued Britons flying home (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12563352)

An RAF Hercules C130 aircraft has arrived in Tripoli to collect British nationals.

A second military plane is on standby in Malta if needed.

Whilst totally agreeing with your points, yet another rabbit is pulled out of the hat by our overstretched forces.

[Wrathmonk]

As the majority of these workers in Libya are not paying UK tax, and are working there of their own free will (and for the money!) anyone know if they get charged for these rescue flights? After all, whilst maybe not quite the same, if Joe Bloggs gets injured on holiday without the required travel insurance he has to fund his own casevac back....

[Runaway Gun]

Did anyone miss this paragraph in the same article?

BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner said an SAS contingent has been put on standby for emergency deployment to parts of Libya, backed up by paratroopers of the Special Forces Support Group.

[Sand4Gold]

IMHO British public opinion, re our foreign policy, is changing by the day. If demographic trends continue, it is estimated that Britain will be populated by a immigrant (sourced) majority by 2050. This social group is becoming more vocal and, even now, are questioning UK plc's military role in the world. It will not be long before our permanent seat on the UN's Security Council is questioned.

[downsizer]

An RAF Hercules C130 aircraft has arrived in Tripoli to collect British nationals.

A second military plane is on standby in Malta if needed

Ask yourself where those frames have come from, and what they are not supporting now. I would wager they haven't flown in from the UK :hmm:.

[Dan Gerous]

As the majority of these workers in Libya are not paying UK tax, and are working there of their own free will (and for the money!) anyone know if they get charged for these rescue flights? After all, whilst maybe not quite the same, if Joe Bloggs gets injured on holiday without the required travel insurance he has to fund his own casevac back....


As someone who has in the past worked overseas, along with many other expats, we may not have been paying UK tax, but our money was largely spent in the uk, on homes etc. There are many people working overseas "tax free", who are supporting their families back in the UK. I had to go overseas after leaving the RAF because I couldn't afford to buy a home in the utopian UK. I met many people who were sacrificing time at home with their families, in order to provide for them.

[StopStart]

I would wager they haven't flown in from the UK.

And I would like a job as your bookie.... :hmm:

[TurbineTooHot]

Since time immemorial, the default option when any s:mad::mad:t has it any fan is to call in the military.

In my time we've had countless floods dealt with by the fine folks from the SAR fleet, at least one fire strike, several NEOs, snow shovelling, potential prison officer strikes, token gestures to overseas relief efforts (Pak floods, Haiti earthquake)............................................ the list goes on; almost all of this is outside our core business, yet the public perception is that the military are the most capable both in management and equipment in a crisis.

Methinks the time has come to put up a sign on the front door of MOD main building that reads:

"HM Armed Forces are currently engaged in operations around the world and in this country. If you would like to engage our services in any new operation/crisis please first direct your query to HMT c/o No 11 Downing St, who will issue you with a note for funds to be made available. If they are unwilling to do so, or you cannot remunerate us for our services, we have no choice but to decline your request, as we do not have the resources. Many thanks."

Clearly a simple "B****r off" would be insufficient in terms of justification but would carry the same message.

TTH

May

[draken55]

"No one (not even the best brains in RUSI or the FCO) would have envisaged this wave of Middle Eastern 'revolution"

None of the autocrats running the countries affected by "popular disent" were getting any younger. What worse case scenarios had been considered by the think tanks:ooh:

[pr00ne]

Sand4gold.

Rubbish rubbish rubbish rubbish!

Stop spouting zenophobic irrational nonsense and check your facts.

The UK will NOT have an immigrant sourced majority by 2050 under any circumstances. Ignoring the rather obvious fact that we are ALL immigrants, UK population grew by 0.6% last year of which the majority, 787,000 were births. Net immigration fell for the second year running. 7.9% of the population is non white.

[Wrathmonk]

Dan

You didn't answer the question. I fully understand why people make a choice to work overseas. But should they all have the right to free UK taxpayers support, as a non-contributor, when it all goes wrong (particulalrly if working outside of the EU)? Same could be said about access to the NHS, education system etc etc - we're quick to knock the immigrants who take advantage of the Brisitsh taxpayers generosity. But that would be thread drift!;)

Edited to add - blimey Pr00ne is back.

[Uncle Ginsters]

Let's not get carried away with what SDSR has and hasn't left us wrt this particular crisis.

The facts are simple: If someone high enough had made a decision several days ago, our (RAF) aircraft would have been in and out by now, from the UK.

The apparent delay comes down to nothing more than that.:ugh:

[cazatou]

Wrathmonk

You ignore the fact that HMG reserves the right to tax "Government Pensions" in the UK no matter where the recipient resides on this Planet.

[downsizer]

And I would like a job as your bookie.... http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/yeees.gif

I'm very surprised at what they left the UK without then.

[SRENNAPS]

Sand4gold.

Rubbish rubbish rubbish rubbish!

Stop spouting zenophobic irrational nonsense and check your facts.

The UK will NOT have an immigrant sourced majority by 2050 under any circumstances. Ignoring the rather obvious fact that we are ALL immigrants, UK population grew by 0.6% last year of which the majority, 787,000 were births. Net immigration fell for the second year running. 7.9% of the population is non white.

BBC News - UK immigration increases by 22%, official figures show (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12535437)

Nice Timing........:rolleyes::rolleyes:

[langleybaston]

I thought I had seen, heard and read everything.
Our fumbling and inactivity re. Libya [farcical, risible, pathetic etc etc] may be beginning to educate the public as to our pathetic state, through no fault of the RAF: those who can read and listen and have an attention span of one minute plus.

We were last seen handing out bottled water, crisps and [blasphemy deleted] bananas and trying to fire up one scruffy charter flight.

God help us, because we are helpless.

Last one out please lock the door, do check the cleanliness of the loos, turn the light out, and try to do it in the correct order and iaw. relevant H&S and compliance legislation.

[pr00ne]

SRENNAPS,


787,000 born here, 237,0000 settled here, 57,000 left.


Still don't see how the hell you are going to have a majority of population being immigrants by 2050, so my point still stands and Sand4gold's is still xenophobic nonsense.

langleybaston,

Of the 35000 UK nationals in Libya, 3,000 left of their own accord and the RAF has just evacuated the rest in a Hercules, the day after the French did the same.

WHAT is the problem?

[Top Bunk Tester]

Pr00ne

Of the 35000 UK nationals in Libya, 3,000 left of their own accord and the RAF has just evacuated the rest in a Hercules, the day after the French did the same.

The problem is that the Herc will never get off the ground with 32000 pax aboard :D :D :D :oh:

[Wrathmonk]

Caz

You ignore the fact that HMG reserves the right to tax "Government Pensions" in the UK no matter where the recipient resides on this Planet

Not ignored - but covered under the Double Tax agreement with HMRC surely. Or are you telling me you pay French tax on your pension as well???

Apologies for the thread drift. Back to it (sort of) ...

So, does anyone know if the FCO or MOD charge for those who are no longer resident, through their own choice, to be repatriated or moved to a safe(r) location (not always UK).

[Sand4Gold]

Proone,

If you spent less time ranting, you may be able to link-up your thoughts - you come across as a somewhat foolish person.

This is after all the main reason we have bombs on the streets in London

Earlier replies referred to the opinions of middle-England re this Thread, my point was that the dynamics of our society are changing; long held views about this country's military might/role are now being challenged by minority groups hitherto silent - we ignore them at our peril, see your entry above. The source of my comment was from the Professor of Demography, St John's College Oxford (in fact he states within 50 years, my mistake). Either way, internal influences will soon play a greater role on how we, as a nation, model and implement our foreign policy.

S4G

[pr00ne]

How droll, there were about 300 of the expat tax avoiders left. What's that, 3 Hercules trips?

(There was an extra 0 on my total...) Number of UK folk in Libya was about THREE THOUSAND FIVE HUNDRED

[Mad_Mark]

Not agreeing with either Sand4Gold or Pr00ne, but if you want to argue at least make credible points :=

Pr00ne...
787,000 were births.
Sand4Gold said "a immigrant (sourced)". How many of those births you talk of were to first generation immigrants? Point of argument void. :=

Also...
7.9% of the population is non white.
Not all immigrants are are non-white. Point of argument void. :=

Sand4Gold...
it is estimated that Britain will be populated by a immigrant (sourced) majority by 2050
Whilst I admit that when visiting some cities in the UK it can be very hard to find someone that is not at least 2nd generation Brit, I do not believe we will be 'taken over' by 2050.

MadMark!!! :mad:

[Duncan D'Sorderlee]

And I thought that HSW regulations prevented Hercs being used as passenger planes - standby for the litigation!

Duncs:ok:

[davejb]

Actually the great British public haven't a clue about a great many things - the average guy on the street is a barely functional moron, I think you'll find, as far as knowing what's what in defence, health, education, science, and anything that involves something beyond voting for somebody on a TV program. Human attention span seems to be dwindling, blame it on what you will, but the human ability to string ideas together and form a logical conclusion is - for whatever reason - being bred out of us. (I think TV is to blame, with a side helping of the internet, but that's just my old reactionary brain at work).

A few days back I read an online article about the Libyan problem, and like many online papers there was an opportunity to post comments underneath. A soild string of comments followed, all along the general lines of:

'The RN will stick a carrier off Libya. The RAF will fly evac flights with all their troop carriers. If there's any argy bargy the SAS will go in and take out the Libyan military.'

These seem to be fairly common beliefs amongst the VAST majority who don't use sites like Pprune - Joe Public has no idea that we don't have the resources to do this stuff, we won against the Argies, then Iraq, and any time we get mad we will just do it all again... 'THEY' haven't a CLUE how short of kit we are, 'they' have no idea what the SDSR did.

THEY think the RN has carriers (they think they also have Harriers, by the way), THEY think the RAF has hundreds of aircraft, and THEY think the SAS amounts to about 15 divisions...backed up by an armoured infantry regular army with more men than Napoleon commanded.

There's no point relying on the public to notice anything - sorry, Kiwibrit, but stupid as it sounds, that is exactly what the British public appear to believe!

[Top Bunk Tester]

Pr00ne
I'll hazard a guess that everyone here realized that you made a little typo, the bite shows that your banter circuit has definitley popped a c/b .... try resetting the c/b :ok:

[Mad_Mark]

DaveJB...
Actually the great British public haven't a clue about a great many things
blame it on what you will
I blame it on the teachers :ok:

MadMark!!! :mad:

[davejb]

<g>

..and as Pprune won't let you away with three character responses....

I wouldn't, necessarily, argue that point with you old chap - I would (obviously) have to point out that the adults we are discussing would all have exited school before I entered the profession....

Naturally, as part of CfE (Curriculum for Excellence) I am looking to introduce close order drill as a self esteem builder....

Dave

[NURSE]

the husband of a friend has been working out there and got a phone call from FCO asking her to Pay for his seat out! Same happened in Egypt I wonder how many other countries are doing this?
I suspect the FCO is in for a nasty shock when David gets back from the middle east. Listening to the reports on the media it would appear the guys and girls on the ground are doing their bit and being let down by head office. I also wonder if they FCO were relying on the RAF to provide the airlift capability then cried H&S over the age/condition of VC10's/Tristars?

[Runaway Gun]

Did she pay?

[Sospan]

They should have just dropped the S and called it a Defence Spending Review!

[Al R]

The British public does not understand capability gaps, holidays or seed corning

The British public has had enough; it is.. full. It spends its days being drip fed pub ammo sized chunks of news, watching Jeremy Kyle or saving up for the latest plasma TV. It is taxed to buggery, it is observed and regulated like no other nation in Europe and it just doesn't care anymore. It can't absorb the banal anymore, let alone the important stuff.

When we have to press to test, and fail, then I think the traditional British reserves of compliancy and acceptance will go up in smoke. We don't care that people are dying in Afghan, but we will when we have no national fuel reserves and no hospitals.

Duncan,

I remember Op Determinant; getting Brits out of the Congo, the Pumas had all seats removed (apart from a couple up front) and were fitted with a length of wire strop running horizontally around the cabin for civvies to grip during flight.

[teeteringhead]

Ignoring the rather obvious fact that we are ALL immigrants, ... sorry pr00ne, I genuinely don't get what you're saying :confused:

Having had my DNA tested as part of a Genealogical project, at least one of my lines of ancestry (matrilineal of course, as it was only mitochondrial (sp?) DNA that was tested) remains in these islands, well before they were islands! (about 8000 years ago?). Or does the fact that great (times lots) grannie Teeters trudged across the land bridge from the Continong at the end of the pleistocene Ice age still make me an immigrant?

Would agree for white (or black!) septics, white seff efrikans and white Aussies (and all Kiwis, Maoris were immigrants in historical times, probably about 750 AD (or CE if you prefer)) but not me chief! ..... matrilineally anyway .....;)

[Wyler]

I was in Jordan (;)) just before the outbreak of Gulf War 1. The Embassy was looking at evacuation of British Nationals then. The deal was that the UK would provide flights but they would be charged at a rate well above commercial rates. A lot of Expats were not happy at this at all. The line from the Embassy was to get out by commercial/own steam means (air and land) as soon as possible as it was probably a quicker, and cheaper, option.
The other problem was that a lot of Expats had not bothered to register with the Embassy when arriving. Therefore, the staff had no real idea how many people were actually there. I imagine the Embassy in Libya has been a scene of chaos. As to the FCO, it is staffed by terribly clever things from Oxbridge who have learnt everything they know about the world from a book, or Daddy's photo album. You know.......w@nkers.
Similar thing in Malaysia after 9/11. Lots of Expats getting jittery and were told to make their own way out. Not just the Brits but all Nationalities. (People were getting jittery because the local shops were selling 9/11 goods in most of the shops i.e bathrrom tiles showing the aircraft crashing into the Twin Towers: a best seller apparently :=:mad:)

Diplomacy/Stiff Upper Lip and politics play as much a part in this as logistics, especially when there is oil involved!!

[jindabyne]

prOOne

You work in an area where matters are resolved through logical and reasoned persuasion, and where the outcomes are sometimes breathtakingly flawed, or at least subjectively challengeable. You argue well, but perhaps your views on this forum would be more acceptable if you were to modify your preaching and accusatory tones.

Unless one has lived on another planet over recent times, it is quite evident that a significant proportion of the population (encompassing all ethnicities) has concerns over some of the immigration matters and implications raised here. To dismiss their views as xenophobic (fear and hatred of people from other countries) could be regarded in itself as being accusatory and inflammatory and, at best, unhelpful.

[pr00ne]

teeteringhead,

Fair shout. I was making the rather esoteric point that we are ALL descended from a single group of about two hundred folk who left Africa some 50,000 years ago.

Sand4gold.

Sorry, I couldn't give a stuff how foolish you think I come across as.

Mad_Mark.

Fair shout.

jindabyne.

Likewise, you make a fair point. Unfortunately I don't really care that my views are acceptable or unacceptable as, you see, they are my views.

[hval]

@pr00ne,

Unfortunately I don't really care that my views are acceptable or unacceptable as, you see, they are my views.

Ditto. Nor do we care about your views. Not true actually. But hopefully you get the point. It is admirable how you are so enthusiastic and forthright with reference to your own belief system. I just wish you would be somewhat friendly and stop accusing people of being Xenophobic. How do you know they are xenophobic? Do you know that person? What makes someones point xenophobic? just because you say so?

I would say that maybe you do care as you have a tendency to be somewhat excited, a tad rude to people, and accuse people of being xenophobic.

I would also say that the fact that you post to this forum shows your interest in sharing your beliefs, and to "discuss" with others. Therefore you care.

Apologies pr00ne. A bit of a rant. You see, I care about your views - even if they are incorrect ;)

Hval

[Willard Whyte]

This'll be the thread Mrs WW attested was bitchier than mumsnet then.

[Heathrow Harry]

"I acknowledge that we are broke, and of course the MoD Procurement process needs to get sorted (and unusually there has been much sense on the Dr Fox Spending thread on procurement and project management), but as someone that was having a drink with a snap shot of British society then the HMG have got it's work cut out in aligning the expectations of the British public "

much truth here

We are broke

The Great British Public is living in dreamland with regards to our military (and economic) power

No politician is seriously going to tell them the real truth - we'll have to go through a Suez Crisis or similar to get through to anyone

[NURSE]

Nope his employer has picked up the tab

[langleybaston]

"I was making the rather esoteric point that we are ALL descended from a single group of about two hundred folk who left Africa some 50,000 years ago".

And where did they come from? Just an esoteric point, you understand.

[davejb]

Speak for yourself,
my antecedents evolved from an ape in the north of the great Northern landmass who stuck a leaf on his head to protect himself from the constant rain. Thus was Lancashire Man (Homo Flatcapitus) born....

We didn't come down from the trees either - we rolled up on a trolleybus.

Dave

[SRENNAPS]

Pr00ne,

My apologies, but I did not mean to cause offence with my post. I just thought that it was amusing that I found that BBC link shortly after reading your initial post. As I said; “good” timing.:rolleyes:

Anyway water under the bridge now as I noticed that the report from that link has now changed, quite considerably.:ugh::ugh:

I do have a couple questions for you though. You talk of 787,000 born here against 237,000 settled here. Do you not need to also consider that approximately 650,000 die here?

Also, if it was to come down to voting for a government, it would be 18 years before that 787,000 could vote but the 237,000 (who apparently have an average age of between 25 and 28) would be able to vote straight away!

I am just playing devil’s advocate here, but based upon what has happened in the last 39 years, the mathematics suggest that 2050 could actually be quite a close call!!

[Melchett01]

Getting back to the original thread, although demographic transition is undoubtedly of interest to someone, an interesting comment from Simon Heffer in today's Telegraph.

Indeed, one can't help but feel that Dave et al are actually more interested in generating and sustaining capable militaries in other countries rather than their own - after all, as Dave pointed out the other day, trade is vitally important. It also means that when you sell your own military down the river you can go to your chums for assistance and 'lease' your required capability from them. If defence is an insurance contract, I guess we have decided to do with out and look to hire or lease capability as and when required. It's a fine line between genius and madness!


The foolish cuts that leave us defenceless The ludicrous, hasty and ill-informed decision to cut defence so severely is one for which Dave and his Chancellor must take full responsibility, writes Simon Heffer.

Nothing I have written lately attracted a greater postbag than an article reflecting that Britain had chosen to cease to be a serious country, choosing to put welfare and a bloated public sector above engagement in the world and the willingness to defend ourselves properly. Most of you agreed; and perhaps the few who didn’t will reconsider your views after the farce of the Libyan evacuation this week.

Full credit to the Prime Minister for admitting the shambles he made of this: but what did he expect? Governing, for the inexperienced and callow people who now run our country, is about having power. They seem not just to be unsure of what to do with that power, but of what power actually requires them to do. It requires, not least, to have them protect British subjects going about their legal business in the world. Dave, though, was too busy on a photo-opportunity in Cairo, and his preposterous deputy thought his main responsibility lay in having a skiing holiday. He forgot he was in charge: if only the rest of us could.

Mr Hague, the Foreign Secretary, has seemed disengaged from reality since problems with his private life a few months ago. But he only had to try to whistle up charter flights to get our people out of Libya because the RAF is depleted and our Mediterranean fleet hardly exists. We have been reminded that we need reach in the world, because our people are very much out in it. An inability to protect them means we are not a serious country, and one that invites the contempt of its now immensely vulnerable citizens.

The senior officers who wrote to this newspaper yesterday about the idiotic nature of our defence cuts reinforced this point, unwittingly. Not only can we not protect ourselves against those who threaten our interests: we no longer have the forces to mount a simple rescue operation. I was told at the time that Mr Hague was urging support for the hard Treasury line against the Ministry of Defence when the cuts were discussed last year. If so, he is well and truly hoist with his own petard.

The defence review must be reopened. It has been established that money was wasted on procurement in the MoD; and the civil service establishment there was, and is, too large. But that is no reason to decommission Ark Royal, or our Harrier capability. The world is an exceptionally dangerous place, much more so than these foolish cuts admitted. For us to remain secure and to be able to protect our people we need more ships, more planes and more men and women under arms. The cuts always looked idiotic, and some of us said so at the time. They seem lethal now.

History tells us that the unexpected always happens: ask the ghosts of Baldwin and Chamberlain, who refused to expect the Second World War. Ministers will say that no one could have predicted this wave of instability in the Middle East and North Africa even last autumn, when the cuts were announced. That is true. But what any sensible politician could, and should, have planned for is that, one day, the unexpected would happen. That day has come quickly.

The ludicrous, hasty and ill-informed decision to cut defence so severely is one for which Dave and his Chancellor must take full responsibility. They chose to increase the overseas aid budget, which should have been abolished. They chose to ring-fence the NHS budget, which is full of waste. We await mass sackings of unproductive people in local government. All this would pay for our better defence, and save Dave from further humiliating apologies. He had better listen, for the world situation has every chance of getting much, much worse.

[backseatjock]

MaroonMan - hear, hear!

[MG23]

Speaking as an outsider, people seem to be missing the elephant in the tutu dancing in the living room.

The EU wants its own military because it can't be taken seriously as a sovereign nation until it has one. On past experience that means they'll work step by step for the next couple of decades until they have it and there is no more RAF or Royal Navy or British Army.

If that's the case, the government may not see the point in spending British taxpayers' money on hardware that's just going to be handed over to Brussels in a few years. Why not let the French and Germans pay for it instead?

[NURSE]

Liam Fox, Secretary of State for Defence 10:00PM GMT 26 Feb 2011
The speed of events in North Africa has shown how quickly circumstances can change and how quickly the UK can be drawn in. At a time when endless negativity is rampant, it is easy to forget that Britain remains the world's fifth biggest economy with the world's fourth biggest defence budget.

As William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, has said, Britain is "richly endowed with the attributes for success". We are a powerful and leading voice inside the UN, Nato, EU, the Commonwealth, the G8 and G20. We are part of a complex, interdependent global economy that brings the unavoidable importation of strategic risk.

An island nation like Britain, with so many interests in so many parts of the world – 92 per cent of trade moving by sea, around 10 per cent of our citizens living abroad – is inevitably going to be affected by global instability.

In most circumstances we handle these changes in the global strategic picture along with our allies, but occasionally have to deal with problems on our own as we did in the Falklands and Sierra Leone. It is because we face such a wide range of security challenges that the Government has spent a great deal of effort on creating a multilayered approach to defence and diplomacy.

This presents challenges because we were hugely weakened by the economic incompetence of the last Labour government. Next year, as a result of Gordon Brown's profligacy, we will be paying more in debt interest than we spend on the defence budget, the foreign office budget and the international aid budget put together. Put simply, the level of our debt is a national security liability.

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Liam Fox: Libya will send strategic shock waves through Arab world 26 Feb 2011
It is against this very adverse financial position that we carried out our Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR).

The first task was to determine the direction for our national security. We could have chosen a fortress Britain policy, where we effectively reduced our global engagement and concentrated on protecting our borders. This would have ignored the reality of Britain's global interests.

We could have assumed a much greater future involvement in asymmetric and non-state warfare similar to the type we face today in Afghanistan. But such a committed posture would have fallen into the trap of assuming that all future wars would look like the wars of today.

Instead, the National Security Council decided on an adaptive posture which would allow greater flexibility and agility in our Armed Forces enabling them to adapt to the changing nature of threats.

The vision we've set out – Future Force 2020 – ensures that by the end of the decade we have coherent, efficient and cutting-edge Armed Forces prepared for the challenges of the future. It's important we continue down the path so we can react to the challenges of today.

As we have seen in Libya in the past 96 hours the UK still has the military capability to protect British interests. At a time when the commercial sector was unable or unwilling to fly, the Government used a range of military assets, including Royal Navy warships each with a detachment of Royal Marines and C-130 Hercules aircraft to evacuate hundreds of Britons and citizens from a dozen other countries. In fact, British Armed Forces have been leading the way with HMS Cumberland being the first military asset from any country to enter and evacuate citizens from the Libyan city of Benghazi.

Future Force 2020 is an ambitious programme and as David Cameron, the Prime Minister, has said, it will require real-terms year-on-year increases in the defence budget in the second half of the decade. But I am certain that it is achievable.

I take a different view from those critical of the SDSR and believe Britain will still be able to play a role in the world.

Future Force 2020 means that Britain will continue with its minimum credible nuclear deterrent to protect against nuclear blackmail in a world where, as North Korea and Iran have shown, nuclear proliferation is increasing. We cannot afford to take a chance on the security of future generations and that is why we will invest to replace Trident. The end of the decade will also see Britain with Type-45 destroyers, the new Type-26 Global Combat Ship and new carrier capability operating the fifth-generation Joint Strike Fighter.

The Navy's new Queen Elizabeth class carriers will have the ability to combine fast jet, helicopter, unmanned aerial vehicles and amphibious capabilities – a floating piece of sovereign British territory which we can use as a base worldwide whenever our needs require it.

We will also have seven of the new Astute class submarines at the cutting edge of global submarine technology.

The Royal Marines will continue to provide a key element of our high-readiness response force. We will be able to put 1,800 marines on to shore with all the required helicopters, protective vehicles, logistics and command and control support in a similar way as we did in Sierra Leone in 2000.

In addition to the Joint Strike Fighter, our air force will have updated Eurofighter Typhoons and renewed investment in transport aircraft with the Airbus A400M replacing our ageing Hercules fleet, supplemented by combat-tested Boeing C-17s.

The Army will be remodelled into five new multi-role brigades, plus the parachute and air-assault capability provided by 16th Air Assault Brigade. This will be supported by a range of additional assets and personnel and will mean that, if required, we could field a force of 30,000 including maritime and air assets for a one-off intervention.

Though I cannot go into detail, our internationally respected and battle-tested Special Forces will receive significantly enhanced capabilities too.

Far too much attention has been given to the older equipment which is being taken out of service and far too little to the investments we are making for the future. This is why, for example, we are investing £650 million in cyber security.

In addition to reshaping our military capabilities to face the future challenges, we must also radically restructure the MoD and Armed Forces. This is why the work of the Defence Reform Unit is so important. We also need to improve our ability to prevent conflicts through the promotion of prosperity and a peaceful resolution of disputes.

Andrew Mitchell, the Development Secretary, is readjusting our international aid programme so we are able to create a stable environment in which the eradication of poverty becomes a realistic goal.

The events of 9/11 produced a strategic shock which changed how we view the world. The events in North Africa over recent days may also come to change how we view the world. Instead of happening immediately, it is likely to be protracted.

Where all of this will end up is still to be determined, but what we do know is that providing a sound defence and foreign policy designed for adaptability is the surest way to keep our country and its people safe. This is something we are determined to deliver.


Ah well that answers that one

[Front Seater]

Sorry for deleting the rugby induced beer post late last night that rambled on.

Now sober (ish) I can hopefully make a more succinct contribution, namely that the BBC are still reporting 300 or so in the desert and although I genuinely hope that there will be no further requirements for any Cabinet minister or the Prime Minister to say sorry again, I believe that now is the time that COBRA, MOD, FCO and the Prime Minister himself wished that he did have Harriers, Carriers, a Maritime Patrol/SIGINT/ELINT Aircraft and also enough embarked helicopters/troops to take up the slack (if fixed wing becomes tactically unsound or non viable) or support the tremendous work by the Herc and SF community.

Nurse's post is typical of the self delusion that is going on at the upper political echelons as they ignore some very experienced military and academic advice. I agree that Force 2020 may deliver everything that Dr Fox believes in his recent correspondence (if it survives the cuts of PR11, PR12, PR13, PR14, SDSR 15, PR16, PR 17 PR18 etc).

but what are the British people both at home and overseas expected to do/think between 2011 and 2020 and how many more 'sorrys' do we expect from the Prime Minister between now and then?

[hval]

@ Nurse,

Thank you for your posting; I found the politicians comments interesting. Am not sure if you believe the politicians or are cynical as I am. A few points: -

1/ Do you actually believe the politicians? Every single one of them has, and is (irrespective off political affiliation) proven to be liars, whether outright, by omission or misdirection.

2/ Yes we may have Type 45 destroyers and possibly we will get two aircraft carriers (no aircraft and one to be sold, so we actually will have one) etc. What he omits is that we don't and wont have enough of anything. Also look at the reduced hours of everything. Less flying training allowed, less ships at sea. Oh yes ships at sea without weapons as well. I could go on. Basically we have an over stretched armed forces, with old, tired equipment in the main, not enough of it, and what is new, not enough and over used.

3/ Weren't the government lucky with HMS Cumberland? A ship that is being scrapped saves the day? (tongue in cheek)

I am so saddened by the fact that politicians seem to be incapable to understand that our nations sovereignty and security are paramount - above and beyond any other costs - and that includes bankers continued wealth, a hugely expensive, inefficient NHS and Civil Service.

Hval

[A2QFI]

Of those 787,000 births how many were to parents who have lived in UK for more than 20 years, say?

[jindabyne]

A2

If my local area's young unmarried mother population is anything to go by, very few! But I know where you're coming from!

[ghostnav]

@MG23

Your comment has nothing to do with the argument of the thread; and to be honest, I am not sure what it has to do with you.

The Commonwealth is a dead duck - a bit like the Canadian Air Force!

[minigundiplomat]

The Commonwealth is a dead duck


As a kiwi I would disagree. So would many others I know from distant shores.

[Not Long Here]

Quote:
The Commonwealth is a dead duck


I would suggest that it is the head office that is broken - the rest of us are alive and well

[tramps]

I really hope mr Ah-mad:suspect:-inejad isn't reading any of these forums...................oh!!::uhoh:eek:

[MaroonMan4]

In earlier posts I really hoped that that the whole Libyan NEO/JPR topic would be safely put to bed, with some well deserved praise for the Herc crews and SF contingent, with only the fallout of a big flashing warning light and very noisy klaxon sounding for the the current HMG on continuing with this current folly of a treasury led reduction in the UK's military capability that has now, and will in the future, put UK nationals lives at risk.

I wondered how many times the PM and Foreign Minister would have to say 'sorry' during their time in office and I really hoped that no loss off life would come as a result of SDSR, especially after all the high level, experienced and respected advice from all quarters that are saying very loudly to stop and reconsider.

I also hope that the Sunday Times report this morning on SAS personnel being taken hostage is media hype and a non event, but regardless of Libya this scenario is very real and highly likely to happen again between now and the much lauded Force 2020.

I have absolutely no idea what contingency plans are in place, but irrespective of Afghanistan a carrier and amphibious task force, already in or on the way to the Med would be able to present the Prime Minister with so many more options than he currently has (and I so want to get away from the very negative single service atmosphere in all levels of defence at the moment). I use the carrier and Fishead piece as an example for this scenario, and also include Maritime Patrol and over all FE@R.

Let's hope that the PM's view on a Euro Defence Force and Coalition approach will see the French, Italians or the US help us out of the corner where the treasury has backed us.

[GrahamO]

Right back to a first page posting which included a suggestion that the public would pay an extra £50 a head to the Armed Forces in the way of additional funding.

I agree that if it were ring fenced, many, but not all would pay it.

I also suggest that given £50 a head, the expenditure would not pay back the £38billion, but would in fact increase it as more than £50 per head would be spent, and most likely on assets which would have zero use in the current Libyan/Egyptian theatre.

Sad to say, it would get spent on carrier, Nimrod and other glory projects which would be sfa use to the current situation.

Just my 2p....

[Tourist]

Graham

Yes, because that's why France, Spain, Italy and the US are sending their carriers to the Med.
Because of their uselessness.

All these countries plus all the other countries with carriers and all those currently building them have decided that in these financially stretched times what is really need is a useless carrier.

Or B.
You just don't get it

[GrahamO]

I get it 100%.

Sadly what many (apparently including yourself) cannot get is that the MOD is institutionally incapable of spending only the money we taxpayers provide, hence the £38 billion overspend on things which are as yet unfinished. Thats not to say that a whole lot of other money has rightly been provided for operations which are underway.

Maybe if Nimrod, Typhoon, T45, Astute had not been such a financial disaster then there actually might be some money left for the carriers ? The taxpayer is not a bottomless bucket of cash for MOD to spend as it sees fit is it ?

Other countries do not have a £38 Billion ovespend on unfinished projects do they ?

Maybe their governments believe that given the money for a couple of carriers for a budget, they will actually deliver something on time, to spec and to budget.

There is no more money, MOD have had it all, spent it and no more is coming MOD's way for a while. The recent approach to Cameron by 50 members of the military to seek to re-open the SDSR is a simple begging bowl for more money. Maybe after a few years of showing that it can live within a budget, someone in government might give the MOD some more money.
The collective MOD have nobody to blame but themselves that the public support them as great fighting individuals, but as people who have zero credibility when it comes to sticking to a budget, and doing what they promised in terms of delivery.

[MaroonMan4]

I thought that I would just put another thread back up to the top that echos that the current Government must surely now look at their SDSR and recognise that they cannot have capability holidays all the way through to Force 2020.

Even I am surprised at how the PM boldly and enthusiastically leads a forward leaning Foreign Policy and yet equally allows his Treasury and Ministry of Defence to erode the very tools that he requires to assist this foreign policy.

This has got to stop-he cannot have his cake and eat it. Either the Governement align their foreign policy to the resources ( and much publicised debt) or they accept that that the defence of the nationl and national interests will require funding.

To para phrase Dr Fox, there are indeed difficult decisions ahead, and one of them is to have the humility to admit that he and the Governement were wrong and that SDSR/Planning Rounds should be aware of the realities of the Foreign Policy the PM is leading and the unforeseen world events and disasters that equally the PM has absolutely no control, but will still require the countries military.

Please can someone ensure that the politicians stop being so arrogant and ignorant, and just alike the woods and forests, admit that you were wrong and will put it right. It is too late for the Nimrod, and for the young pilots already chopped, but maybe not the carrier, Harrier, new CH47s, Pumas, and the host of other capabilities that have the either been cut or have the sword of damoclese continually hanging over them.