Is now a good time to train? You might be surprised!

[L'aviateur]

"Is now a good time to train? You might be surprised" is the message the greets me on pprune this week, advertising the FLYER Professional Flight Training Exhibition.
I don't have a crystal ball, but I really don't think in 18 months time the aviation world will have bounced back enough for 200 hour Oxford graduates to be walking into BA (although I have doubts BA will even survive that long).
The annoying thing is that I have an article from Flyer issued last year suggesting that it would have been the best time to train, you'd be ready with a CPL/IR when the upturn occured and would be at an advantage over those who'd let their licenses lapse.

I personally have held back from going any further with my training, I fly privately and as regularly as possible. I work a in stable well paid job, and can't justify doing the training to not fly, when at the moment I can. But if I believed these seminars then.................

[Flintstone]

I don't think anyone honestly believes everything training organisations tell them so will treat this with the suspicion it deserves. They can say what they like (within reason), after all they're trying to stay afloat, but we all know it's just advertising fluff.




PS I'll take your word for it as to what the ads say, I use AdBlocker :E

[woodcoc2000]

Schools will say anything to get people through the door.. i know many pilots who would really not agree that this is a good time to train (im one of them).

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I've met the editor of Flyer and he's a nice chap.

But the business model is driven by advertising and the biggest advertiser by a country mile are the various FTO's. The wise do not bite the hand that feeds them.

Although here we do exactly that. Always have done. The banner ad above is probably from a flying training organisation.

This is a crap time to train for a commerical pilots license. There are already thousands of JAA license holders out of work desperate to fly anything for anybody. They will be joined over the next two winters by more thousands of pilots made unemployed by the Airlines who go bust. The recession will soon be over. After that we enter the prime airline popping years.

It will take 5 - 7 years before the good times return for pilot hiring.

In the meantime if you can afford £33k for Ryanair to perpetuate their concept of flying for nothing there is work available IF you can afford the ticket price and IF you're willing to work under hugely onerous terms.

This really isn't the time to be making yourself a Wannabe. Really. Really.

WWW

[Whirlygig]

I don't think anyone honestly believes everything training organisations tell themBut they do - all those who genuinely believe integrated training is best and will get them straight into a job and all those who genuinely believe Oxford is the best school and will get them straight into a job.

Cheers

Whirls

[one-to-go]

Do yourself a favour and stay away. Go to university and learn to be a doctor, dentist,vet, engineer. This industry is pretty sick at the best of times. Im seriously considering another profession. I love flying but the people in this industry from bottom to top are just interested in lining their own pockets and looking out for themselves. Even when you make the big shiney world of jets there is no job security, decaying terms and conditions and salary well below par. May sound like a rant but i wish somebody had laid down some home truths before i spent 60k.

Good luck with whatever you choose.

[fisbangwollop]

Was visiting an old pal the other day that operates and flies a corporate jet buisness. he was telling me that "Netjets" have laid off 350 pilots in the last few months!!...not forgetting these are all well experianced guys with many hours under their belts all now looking for re employment!!....I work in ATC and its quite frightening how traffic firures at our unit have also fallen in the last month or so...things seem to have gone very quiet all of a sudden....may be on the street myself soon selling the "Big issue".. :(

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Interesting perspectives.


I know Captains at well established UK airlines who are working two days in November.


Two days.



It takes a while. But eventually the beam breaks and the floor collapses.

DO. NOT. START. OR. CONTINUE. FLYING. TRAINING. NOW. UNLESS. YOU. HAVE. TO.




WWW

[KAG]

I have been watching the aviation industry since the 90s, and I don' t beleive it is worth getting trained anymore. 2 exceptions:

1-free training (paid by the company, governement...),

2-Cheap training, under $20000 (under 15000 Euro). Glider licence (or anyting else that count towards you CPL total time), then PPL, CPL, then a single piston job anywhere in the world. Then build your time from there, if nothing happen after few years, well you can change career without debts.

Don' t spend $150 000 for training, even after the recession.

Take option #1 or #2, and I promise you won't be in debt for a job, and I promise the airlines will change their behaviour if most of you guys follow one of those 2 path.

[Bealzebub]

I know Captains at well established UK airlines who are working two days in November.
Two days.

Not unusual and never has been. For UK charter airlines in particular, the summer season finishes on 31st October and the main winter ski season doesn't start until around the 15th December. This 6 week shoulder period is often used to complete annual training and refresher courses as well as simulator renewals.

There may only be two flights rostered, but there are usually a lot of standbys, some of which get converted at short notice to cover ad hoc flying that arises during the period.

[Frankly Mr Shankly]

Couldn't agree more with Whirls. We've seen fairly recent posts on here from wannabees who clearly started training when it was very very very very clear to see the economy was FUBAR.

And yet they go headlong into training, and in some annoying cases, can hardly believe that they can not gain real employment with an airline (read into "real" what you will, that's another debate) with their shiny blue book with OAA, Cabair (insert FTO of your choice) stamped on it.

Seriously, these people are genuinely surprised, almost offended, by the fact that their little blue book is not a passport to fortune and riches.

Until the zombie army wakes up to this fact, more and more will go "over the top with their canes" and get a hell of a rude awakening at the other side. I do think quite a few wannabees do think "it won't happen to me, I'll be the best in my class, get referrals, nah, won't happen to me...."

How you best advise, I don't know. You can give them your perspective from inside the industry (my own situation is quite perilous, already taken a 30% pay cut, as are my mates in other airlines), but they seem to dismiss this as negativity and "upsetting their dream".

Unfortunately I think with some there is no telling, and they will find out the hard way, regardless. Ouch.

[Return-On-Investment]

I am someone who did listen! I really am grateful to WWW and others who take the time to post here and let wannabees know how things really are.

Earlier this year I was seriously considering trading my perfectly good but a bit mundane job as an account manager to become a pilot. I did my class 1 and the GAPAN aptitiude tests and realised that physically I had a good chance of success - and then spent several evenings reading all the posts here about the state of the industry and job opportunities.

I realised that although becoming a pilot had always been my dream job the reality was that pilot training would be a huge expense with very little realistic return in the form of a job offer. I am very grateful that PPRuNe exists and that there are professional pilots that willingly give up some of their free time to educate others. Where else would I have received such clarity and insight into the world of being a commercial pilot - my local FTO was saying "It's never been a better time to train!"

Although I am disappointed that I won't be a commercial pilot I now have even more respect for the pilots that do make it.

Thanks again!

[Flintstone]

But they do - all those who genuinely believe integrated training is best and will get them straight into a job and all those who genuinely believe Oxford is the best school and will get them straight into a job.


I suppose what I meant was I hope nobody does. If they're that gullible I've a nice bridge for sale in London and $100m in a Nigerian bank account I'll split with them.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Return-On-Investment - I'm pleased that this place stopped you following the FTO marketing to a place of rack and ruin.

Good times will be seen again so maybe in the future you might dive back into commercial aviation. Its a brilliant job that can be well paid and extremely satisfying. I would hate to have to do something else. For all the time I spend issuing dire warnings I *love* flying for a living. Its a dream job.


WWW

[Return-On-Investment]

WWW - Thanks again!

I really appreciate that you tell it how it is. You are a great advocate for your profession and your "dire warnings" are gifts from an expert that save wannabees whose dreams have overtaken their resources when there is little chance of employment in the current pilot market.

I will keep my current job and save/invest for the future. If and when the good times return (please could you let me know nearer the time when you think this is!) and there is a good chance of success I will have the resources available to train.

Enjoy your well deserved dream job.

[Nemo...]

Agree things are extremely bad, in Aviaiton at the moment and that FTO's are going to say exactly what we want to hear wether fact or not, but its not as if everyone whos coming out of training isnt getting a job a few do.

I guess all we read on here is doom and gloom, because the guys who are out there who are getting jobs are not posting on here, and maybe the ones who cant have nothing better to do but post doom on here.

Im going into full time training at Oxford [hopefully], with my eyes wide open, im even selling a buisness thats paid me real well for 10yrs now. A dreams a dream no matter how slim the chances of success are. :ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I do think the 2012 Olympic Games will give several UK airlines a very healthy year and off the back of that there could well be the start of an expansion phase. From 2007 - 2013 would be 6 years which would rhyme with the last recession 1990 - 1996 for airlines (1990 when it all collapsed and 1996 when recruitment returned to 'healthy' levels).

The World will never be short of fully qualified inexperienced pilots. But there will be a time once more when the World stops spitting on them and stealing their dinner money..


WWW

[hughesyd]

its a tough choice.......but common sense has to prevail.

My situation has given me some sleepless nights to say the least, 3 years in the minefield of the wanabee army, FTOs telling me its always the best time to train, you gotta be realistic and open your eyes to what going on around you.

I have a family , a morgage and a decent paying job, but i love flying and would give my right arm to fly for a living. Unfortunately the current climate dictates that you would have to be insane to spend money on a commercial licence.

Due to work/family commitments i didnt finnish my modular route to a frozen ATPL. I currently have my PPL, ATPL exams and 160 hours. Right in line for the CPL. Problem is my exams expire next june. I may cosider the CPL at the most and just keep enjoying flying as a hobby. It may come round in a few years and i then consider the IR. I do fear now though for even the most experienced of guys who have given years of service to companys, and who are now fearful of loosing their jobs.

Ts and Cs are nothing like they used to be, and i dont ever see that coming back. It will be interesting to see what the climate will be like in 4-5 years.

[Nemo...]

Return On Investment- I see what your saying about keeping your funds for when the industry improves, but I also see your age is 36 are you not worried it will be too late?

I have had the exact worry at 30 and although it would be so easy staying in my current lifestyle and job that pays me very well, I know the years are slipping by, and its really now or never for me.

[Dylan111]

If you were to train in Spain would it mainly be in the plane?

[JohnRayner]

Not if you wanted to be a train driver.

[heli_port]

A friend of mine was midway through his PPL, after speaking to those in the know and after reading these forums he's stopped training and gone off to do a phd. I wish i'd done the same ;( I made it into BA only to find i'm in the hold pool after completing my TR. I've spend nearly £90k of my own money and i haven't got a penny back. ;(

[Leezyjet]

We should get a stand of our own at one of these "seminars" and tell these wannabe zombies just how it really is out there in the real world, or at least give their parents the true picture of the industry at the moment.

:hmm:

[heli_port]

The World will never be short of fully qualified inexperienced pilots. But there will be a time once more when the World stops spitting on them and stealing their dinner money.. I'm going to disagree with you on tha point W. Once the economy turns around we are going to see $150-$200 oil prices and thus a squeeze on the bottom line of an airlines balance sheet. They are going to expect people to pay for TR etc and work for less money. With oil prices as high as that people will need more money to train and thus i guess we'll see a mpl type license arrangement where they fund some of your training and you pay it back with interest in the long run further reducing what you take home. It will come to a point where a young whipper snapper will have no problem in going along with the new system because they are young and have no family commitments and thus can work for what we call a lower wage but in actual fact it will be a pot of gold to them When the world invents a new low cost carbon neutral fuel source that's when the new golden age will begin. I boarded a bus yesterday and he was wearing gold stripes on his shoulder...

[Coffin Corner]

Return On Investment- I see what your saying about keeping your funds for when the industry improves, but I also see your age is 36 are you not worried it will be too late?

People just still don't get it.
Nemo maybe you didn't mean it this way but if he's 36, and you're 30 you are basically saying now or never? To be honest it may as well be never. If you were to wait another 3-4 years before embarking on training then it might just be a good time. If you did it now, regardless of age then the likelihood is, it "aint" going to happen for 3-4 years. All you do by training now is give yourself the added expense of remaining current for 3 years whilst you wait until the good times arrive.
If you train in a few years - it "might" not happen because of your age (according to you)
If you train now - it aint going to happen.

I know which one I'd rather take the chance on.

CC

[Coffin Corner]

I'm 16 and just got the news I've been waiting for,
my bank will give me the cash......



Do I go for it??

:ugh: John, have you not read the "Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us" thread? If not I suggest you go back and read a large chunk of that thread, then ask yourself that question before posing it here.

Have 30ish Hours in c152, (if i dont say-so myself I'm pretty good)

But you did say so yourself ;)

[Bealzebub]

Hopefully no one will get to my parents and tell them the awful truth
That or my Bank Manager,

I'm 16 and just got the news I've been waiting for,
my bank will give me the cash......

John,

Banks don't give you cash, unless it is already your own in a savings or current account. They loan you cash, which in reality means they sell you cash. If you are considering a loan, then you and or the guarantor should be absolutely satisfied that doing so will not overstretch your ability to repay, without relying on any proposed income from flying.

You can borrow money at any age, but access to loans may be limited because a lender will not usually be able to take a young person to court if they break the terms of a loan. This is because you cannot usually be legally held to a contract you make when you are under 18.

If you apply for a credit card when you are under 18, you will have your application turned down.

I see you are in Scotland, where the rules are slightly different in that certain types of contract can be enforced at age 16. Nevertheless you should be very cautious indeed before taking out any form of significant borrowing and you should most definetaly discuss the realities with your parents before doing so.

Embarking on flying training is a decision for you. You should know from reading these threads that the near/medium term prospects for earning any sort of realistic living from it are extremely poor at this time. It would be a very poor decision to substitute your education on the current prospects of an aviation career. However if you are intending to advance your experience and ratings through to a flying instructors rating on a commercial pilots licence, and can do so without jeopardising anything else, than I cannot see anything wrong with a measured approach to that type of training at this stage.

As boring as it sounds, my advice would be to take a considered, paced approach to your flying, and save money! At some point in the future cash will be king, whereas debt will be a millstone around your neck.

[Flintstone]

Hopefully no one will get to my parents and tell them the awful truth
That or my Bank Manager,
I'm 16 and just got the news I've been waiting for,
my bank will give me the cash......
Do I go for it??
Options please,
Have 30ish Hours in c152, (if i dont say-so myself I'm pretty good)
Modular but one course after another want to do a FI
Year out as an instructor
then regional then national etc (probably the best route in Scotland(im told))


Excellent baiting, well done. Now enough of the trolling, the door is thataway.

[Frankly Mr Shankly]

"I guess all we read on here is doom and gloom, because the guys who are out there who are getting jobs are not posting on here, and maybe the ones who cant have nothing better to do but post doom on here."

But Nemo, how about those of us in the industry, having had to relocate to another country, and taking a 30% pay cut for the priveledge, and more redundancies announced this week, does that not sound alarm bells??? I can not account for every individual's circumstances, yours may be a position where you can afford the gamble, many can not.

And the truth is, the reality of airline life at the moment, and for a few years to come, is extremely precarious. As I say each individual and their circumstances are different, but for the average wannabee, hell even average line pilot with a few thousand hours, the prospects are dodgy to say the least.

I never hoped to say it, but it is attrition in this game at the moment, and for the forseeable unfortunately. I'm seriously not trying to put anyone off this profession, it is a wonderful way to earn a "living", if you can call it that at the mo, but timing really really has to be everything, and right now, jeez, I wouldn't advise anyone to enter into it. Eyes wide open, then have another living income to fall back on. Because you will need it right now.

Good luck to all, but right now, think hard and then harder still.

[disco87]

Is it always like this, what is the industry like when things are more normalized?

[G SXTY]

Nemo, - how many experienced commercial pilots do you know? I’m guessing not many, because you badly need some advice . . .

I guess all we read on here is doom and gloom, because the guys who are out there who are getting jobs are not posting on here, and maybe the ones who cant have nothing better to do but post doom on here.

Nope, I’m afraid that’s wishful thinking. It really is that bad out there. Really. Honestly. There is virtually no movement in the job market, nor has there been for some time, and it’s got a while to go yet. There are still unemployed XL pilots out there, and it would be a brave man to predict we’ll make it through the winter without at least one more UK airline falling over. The effect on the job market shouldn’t need spelling out, but just in case it isn’t clear enough, my airline is inundated with low-hours CVs when times are good. And there are (were) opportunities, because people were moving on to big and better paid things at the rate of 10-12 per month. They needed replacing. However, at the moment there is nowhere else to go. When last I heard (right from the horse’s mouth) we had had no resignations for over 5 months. I’m sure it’s more like 9 or 10 months now. Put simply, that’s 100 or so FO positions that aren’t available any more. At just one airline. And we’re not the biggest, not by a long way. I know someone with 5 years’ seniority at BA who is twitchy about his job prospects . . .

Doom and gloom is a natural part of the signal to noise ratio on these forums, but don’t kid yourself that your job prospects are anything other than awful, whatever Oxford, FTE, Cabair or whoever try and suggest.


I have had the exact worry at 30 and although it would be so easy staying in my current lifestyle and job that pays me very well, I know the years are slipping by, and its really now or never for me.

Rubbish. The age question gets asked at least once a week, and a ten-minute trawl of the threads will tell you that you are not too old. If anything, by career-changer standards, you are young. I managed to get my first job aged 36, Danny (Captain PPrune) did it at 37, and I could introduce you to many, many colleagues who started off in their thirties or older.

If you really want to jeopardise your chances of making it to a right hand seat, it’s not age you should be worried about - it’s qualifying when there are virtually no jobs out there, and bleeding your finances to death by trying to keep an IR current while you wait for things to improve.

It’s all about timing.

[Return-On-Investment]

Return On Investment- I see what your saying about keeping your funds for when the industry improves, but I also see your age is 36 are you not worried it will be too late?

I have had the exact worry at 30 and although it would be so easy staying in my current lifestyle and job that pays me very well, I know the years are slipping by, and its really now or never for me.


The general view here seems to be that when there are jobs age isn't a huge factor - in fact some operators may see age/experience as a bonus.

If the good times return in 5 years time I would much rather work hard now in my current job and be training at the age of 41 with my mortgage paid off and my training money saved in a positive job market than at 36 with no hope of employment.

I've worked hard for what I have got and would need to see a realistic opportunity for employment to start training and would not borrow any cash. It's much harder to part with your own hard earned cash than borrow from someone else!

[Whirlygig]

John-Nicoll, you've obviously heard a few business buzz words to convince yourself you've got an unsecured loan at the age of 16. Trust me, there's security and guarantees somewhere; either that, or it's fraudulent, based on fabricated accounts.

No bank would give an unsecured loan to a 16 year old and no bank would give an unsecured loan to a company - there would need to be at least a debenture or mortgage on the company's assets.

If a company gets a loan, the company repays its, not the son of the shareholders or directors. Therefore. your family companies are the ones who are lending you the money which they themselves have borrowed from the bank.

Companies lending to directors and their connected persons is illegal under the Companies Act.

Cheers

Whirls

[KAG]

While I agree with the general trend of this thread, speaking about the fact that spending a lot of money for a pilot job is less and less appropriate and relevant over the years, I disagree with the good timing to begin your training.

I beleive that the best time is when everything is slow, and everybody choose an other career path because of no forseen opportunities. When everybody is hiring, all the training industry is screaming because of the so called pilot shortage, it is definitely too late.

Lets take the example of a guy I know (there are many others) who started his training just after september 11, when he finished he was hired in an industry that was recovering, he is today jet captain, after having flown a lot each year. If he had started in 2006, 2007, just to make sure the industry was stable, he would be jobless and covered with debts today.

So I say again: there is plenty of reasons not to become a pilot nowadays, escpecially if you have to pay a big amount of money to get your basic training, but this industry works in cycle. You have to jump when the cycle is down, there are many example of successfull pilots starting their training in 1992, in 2001, and many people in debts because they started their training in 1998-9, in 2006-7. Keep in mind that from the day you choose to do your training to the day you finish it, 2 years would be spent.
Somebody who takes the decision today to get trained will finish end of 2011, begining 2012. Well ahead compared to the ones just starting then.

I realize most of you guys will be against me, and will say I am a fool giving this kind of advice right now. But lets meet on this thread in exactly 2 years from now, October 19th, 2011. We will see then...

What I say here doesn' t change the fact that overall, it is not worth it spending so much money to get a very unstable low wage job.

[Nearly There]

I think Flinstone called it correctly above ^^^

[Bealzebub]

It also leaves us with limited liability and I'm lucky because the bank isnt requiring security (due to the families other businesses all being with the same bank)
whirleygig: The company doesnt lend to the director, It pays for training of a director.
There is security on a previous company's assets that I yes me at 16 own 99.5% of.
It isn't really anybody elses business what your financial arrangements are, although you seem to be a litttle contradictory? In any event I would repeat my earlier advice about speaking to your parents concerning the realities. You could always call it a directors board meeting, I suppose!

PS. John, It is quite difficult to quote you, or follow your train of thought or reasoning, when you keep deleting your own posts!

[Whirlygig]

It isn't really anybody elses business what your financial arrangements are, It might be HM Revenue & Customs' business when the tax on the benefit in kind isn't paid or the bank's business when they realise that the loan was not for the purposes of the business (unless, of course, it's an airline :})

Cheers

Whirls

[L'aviateur]

The point is that seems to be missed by some is that we aren't at the bottom of the recession as far as the airlines are concerned. Popped my head into a few flight decks recently to hear nervous talk of the future, and the same around the flying schools.
I know two ex-oxford graduates instructing SEP, one of whom absolutely hates it whilst the other enjoys it, both graduated just over a year ago and have second jobs.
I also know of instructors waiting tables to top up the salary.

Whilst I'd love to plunge onwards, as I said I enjoy flying, I have the money to go forward but would be absolutely insane to do anything further now. I just think a reality check is needed, and I really can't understand how these seminars can preach now is right. I think the estimates of another 3 - 5 years is more likely. Then again, will it bounce back as big with all carbon footprint and environmental taxes etc.

[PA28Viking]

Gentlemen, allow me to differ! And pardon for this rather long post.

I have just finished my CPL and ME/IR at the age of 49. I’m not looking for an airline job, all I really wanted was an IR, but as I had the time and money I decided to treat my self to a nice 50 year birthday present. But don’t say that age is not an issue. Maybe 30 or 37 or even 40+ is possible, and there might even be jobs for an 50 year old, but the numbers are defiantly decreasing with age.

However that is not the point I would like to make. Let us look at the ideal twenty something year old standard wannabe.

One of my instructors ones said, when we where discussing the possibility of next days flying lesson going ahead, due to a marginal weather forecast: “It may not look good now, but one thing is fore sure; If we are not at the airfield tomorrow, we are not going to fly”. So we met the next day and flying was possible.

I think the same logic can be applied to training: If you do not finish your training, you are not going to get a job flying.

Case A: Let us assume that we know the faith of one imaginary wannabe and that is that no matter what, he will get a flying job in five years time. He doesn’t know, but we do.
He then has basically two options:

Go right ahead and do his training, finish in say two years time, then go unemployed (flying job wise) for three years, then get a piloting job. Or,
Wait some years (ideally three), then do the training and then go directly into the piloting job.


In the three years of unemployment he can take other jobs, get alternative education, live off his girlfriend or whatever. In option 1) he would also have the burden for servicing the loans he took to finance his training, and the costs of keeping up his medical, licences and ratings, but he would also have the possibility to build hours flying privately, lifting sky jumpers, towing gliders etc. etc.

So what is the best option? Well, no matter what, in our little scenario he will not get a job before the five years are gone, so it makes little difference.

Now a case B. Let us assume that all we know is that the outlook for the coming years are bleak, but there would be a 20 % chance of getting a job each of the years following his training, with a slightly better chance, if his had had the chance to get some hours under his belt.

Which option is the best now? Back to the wise word about the weather forecast, I would go for option 1!

I recognize that times are bad in the industry, but if flying is what you want then until you are ready, it’s not going to happen.

The Viking.

[G SXTY]

PA28Viking

You articulate your case very well, and I understand the point you are making, but - with the greatest respect – you introduce yourself as someone who has just finished the CPL/IR and is not looking for an airline job. Your comments really have to be viewed in that perspective.

The experienced commercial pilots on this forum all started off as wannabes, and have all been through the trials and tribulations of getting a first job. We understand, often from bitter experience, just how difficult it is to get that first break. We understand that luck, in the sense of “right time, right place”, is as big a factor as ability or cash, or contacts. As a newly qualified CPL holder you are competing against hundreds if not thousands of similarly qualified and (in)experienced pilots, and to maximise your chances of success, you really need as many factors on your side as possible. That includes making your own luck, by aiming – where possible - to qualify at a point in the economic cycle when airlines are recruiting low-hours pilots in significant numbers.

That is why the overwhelming consensus amongst experienced commercial pilots is that this is the wrong time to be spending money on commercial training. The only exception I can see is for someone who is thinking of starting modular training, with a view to finishing in not less than 3 years time.

We have a generation of young wannabes who are witnessing a recession, close up and personal, for the first time. Some contributors to this very thread were at junior school at the time of 9/11, and weren’t even born at the time of Gulf War 1. As a consequence it’s hardly surprising that they have little appreciation of just how long and deep recessions can be in this business, and just how many years down the road it will be before the pool of experienced pilots is drained, and airlines start turning to newly qualified pilots again. And we are talking years, not the 14 months or so it takes to complete an integrated course.

Keeping current and treading water while you wait for the market to improve is easier said than done, particularly for a youngster with no work or life experience and nothing of note to their CV except for a £70k debt. Even assuming you could afford it, your two or three year-old IR, with minimal hours between renewals, will always struggle to compete with someone who finished training a few weeks ago.

It keeps coming back to timing.

[moggiee]

One thing to bear in mind is that (if you can afford it) this is a good time to get discounts out of the FTOs. We've reduced the price of our MCC course and are offering further discounts for "bundled" packages - ie. do a CPL or IR and get a further discount off the MCC (and other such deals). For anyone who can find the money, this may actually be the best time to do it - after all, there won't be any waiting lists at any FTOs, will there?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Any small percentage training fee saving is swallowed whole by a single IR renewal. There is nothing, NOTHING more pathetic, soul destroying and sad as a guy covered in rust, with a dusty CPL in his shirt pocket and a cobweb ridden log book desperately trying to keep his financial head above water whilst the industry totally ignores him.

Don't go there.

The advice is simple and it is clear. If you must train then do so slowly, via modular, keeping debt as low as possible and leave the IR and the ATPL exams as late as possible. Train cheap, borrow little, take your time. That's where the smart money's at.

Back in the 'golden age for wannabeism' as I described it at the time in 2006 the advice was to get your backside into a large FTO and be sat on a jet flightdeck a year later and never mind the cost outlay - look at the career opportunity. Times have changed and so has the advice.


WWW

[disco87]

Or could you wait a year, then do an integrated course which would finish around the mid point of 2012, if you had the money and so wished?

[PA28Viking]

Well, the question is if it is at all possible to predict the right time to start. I think not. Nobody could foresee 9/11 and the impact it had, and also the credit crunch came as a surprise to most people, and now it is anybodies guess when the recession will be fading out.

And when will the surplus of experienced pilots, who have been laid off over the last couple of years be fully absorbed into the industry or elsewhere?

No matter what the current situation is like, it has only limited bearing on how thinks will be in two years time and almost non on the more distant future.

I think anybodies guess is as good as any, and I do not believe that professional pilots or others in the industry have a better chance of predicting the world’s economical fluctuations and the influence on the industry than for instance economists (I’m one and haven’t got a clue).

All I would dare to say is that it will take some time (years?) for the economy to get back to ‘normal’, and that it may or may not coincide with when anybody finishes his training.

About getting rusty: How likely has it ever been, that you would get a job before your standard started to decay (BTW, do we have a ‘when did you train, and when did you get your first airline job’-statistic?).

The idea of taking the modular route and slow it down a bit might work, but ones you started on the ATPL exams, the clock is ticking and that is the first thing you do after the PPL and some hour building. After the first exam you are 'committed to land' both financially and time wise.

No matter what, I think you must anticipate that it could take a while (months or years) before you get that job, and plan accordingly to keep you current and afloat.

The Viking

[PilotPieces]

AMS, my plan is similar and I too would like some advice as to whether it is perhaps the most suitable way to achieve my goal in the current situation.

Will be taking my PPL skills test in the next few weeks. Then, I will continue to work, whilst studying to further my academic qualifications and hopefully further/secure my position within my current company. During this time I will be flying when I can and be slowly building my hours. This doesnt mean I will spend every last penny on flying, nor does it mean that I will do 3 circuits in a 152 once a month. A steady approach coupled with some "interesting" flying should the oppurtunities prevail.

In roughly 3 years time, when I estimate to have around 150 hours I will re-assess the market and go from there. If the market looks like its picking up fast and there may be job oppertunities, I will expedite the next part of the training. If it needs more time, then I will take a modular approach, stay in work and take my time.

I dont really hear of anyone undertaking training in this way. People I speak to don't seem to think that flying on a PPL without doing 100 hours in a month in Florida is common practice.

[Capt Pit Bull]

Times have changed and so has the advice.

Well, I reckon the advice should be essentially the same regardless of what point of the cycle the industry is in. The reason being that the time it takes for the industry to go from 'good' to 'bad' is shorter than the time required to do the whole process of selecting a school, getting on a course and completing it. Consequently it's never a smart move to spend that which you can not afford to lose.

Really, spending money on professional flight training as an investment is in the 'insanely risky' category. It is more realistic to think of it like lending money to a relative; done for love rather than the certainty of ever getting it back!

If you must train then do so slowly, via modular, keeping debt as low as possible and leave the IR and the ATPL exams as late as possible. Train cheap, borrow little, take your time.

This is pretty good advice for most people. I'd amplify it a little, borrow as litle as possible but have the facility in place to borrow rapidly if you need too. I've seen too many tightly budgeted schedules come apart at the seams. Particularly for the IR it's essential to have a very generous cash reserve available so that any extra training or retesting can be done without interupting continuity.

There is nothing, NOTHING more pathetic, soul destroying and sad as a guy covered in rust, with a dusty CPL in his shirt pocket and a cobweb ridden log book desperately trying to keep his financial head above water whilst the industry totally ignores him.

Agreed. But this is a reason not to be in the industry at all. It has very little to do with *when* to train. As I've said before, there are a bunch of reasons NOT to get into this industry, and I wouldn't recommend it to anyone, but if we are discussing WHEN to train then it's implicit that the decision has been taken. In fact I'd argue that the person www describes above is more likely to be someone that trained towards the end of a boom.

Any small percentage training fee saving is swallowed whole by a single IR renewal.

For starters, it might not be a small percentage, and more importantly in slump times training and testing are available at the student's convenience. Depending on the student's existing profession the indirect savings / earnings related to this can be very substantial.

If you turn up a school, do a course, and then go back to your old life and wait for the airlines to start recruiting..... well..... good luck. The way forward in this industry (if you ignore the advice and are crazy enough to enter it) is to get involved as soon as you can (time waits for no one) and get to know people. In this game personal contacts = job opportunities. Against the benefit of that, the cost of a bit of refresher training now and then is insignificant. If that represents an unbearable financial burden then you've already overextended yourself.

Think of the industry as being like the national lottery. Yes, it's stacked against you, but if you don't buy a ticket you can't win. Personally though, I don't like gambling ;)

So,its not a good time to train... because it's never a good time to train, because the industry is a pile of steaming excrement. However, there are worse times to train, especially during booms!

Basically, when (or more likely IF) we see an improvement, there will be three categories of people.

1. Those that thought about flying but didn't do it who are X years into a different profession.
2. Those who are qualified, have gained relevant industrial experience in some form, and who have a network of contacts. Entering an airline job in the first wave of recruiting, such individuals often get early commands and training appointments.
3. Those who are sitting on the fence waiting for things to pick up before getting started, who hopefully will make it into a right hand seat before things go pear shaped again.

My advice is be in group 1. But if you don't want to be in group 1, you're far better off in group 2 rather than 3.

In summary, it may not be a 'good' time to train. It is however a 'least bad' time - if you are sensible, financially prudent, and dedicated.

pb

[G SXTY]

At the risk of sounding like a scratched record, if you buy the argument that good timing is a key to success, you’ll want to try and predict the state of the market when you qualify. My crystal ball is no better than anyone else’s, but experience of the last two recessions is a good starting point. And I say again, it took years for the job market to recover.

Signing up for an integrated course, you will be qualifying in 14 months time or so, irrespective of job prospects.

Go modular, and from the date of passing the last ATPL exam (which itself is flexible) you have a 3 year window to pass the IR. Any time within that window, the CPL and IR can be done in 3 months, start to finish, and at a time that suits you and the job market. Ergo, you have more control over your timing. I did just that, and it worked for me.

I would suggest that whatever state the industry is in, it’s a lot easier to predict what things will be like in 3 months rather than 14.

[Capt Pit Bull]

Any time within that window, the CPL and IR can be done in 3 months, start to finish, and at a time that suits you

Nice in theory, but it can be very different in practice. Whetever prompts you to do the final bits (probably Airline XYZ starting to recruit) will cause (a) every other person in the same situation to want to do the same training and (b) a significant proportion of the instructional staff will be in the first wave of departures to go and work for XYZ.

Put those two things together and you have a witches brew for delayed training. The cumulative effect has to be seen to be believed - I'm not just talking about a few weeks! I've seen people needing to wait for a year to get a course, and another year for a test slot. (although to be fair I think the latter situation is much less serious since GFT examining authority is delegated by the CAA).

How do you know an FTO is BSing about aircraft/instructor/test slot availability? Their lips are moving. (an old recycled joke I know, but apt in my experience.)

pb

[LAX]

return on investment,

Your decisions are some of the most sensible comments written on this forum in months.

I was 19 when i first started flying but unlike many of todays financially niave wannabe army quickly learnt that i was going to sink some serious cash to go commercial and was not comfortable borrowing what was required. I took a non flying job, saved my money, invested it wisely and when the timing was right in my thirties decided to get my ATPL. I figured it was my money and mine to loose. I never borrowed a penny/cent, didnt have to sell my home, the only thing i have is a small bond to pay for my command if i leave my employer in the next 12 months.

Todays credit card army of wannabes dont understand that intrest charges will eat you alive for years even if you have a good income.

Many of the FO's i fly with today, - dont get me wrong - who are really good guys/gals - tell me about the level of debt and the financial commitments they have and its hurrendus, absolute commercial suicide. It gives me a very smug feeling inside knowing that my more conservative actions over the years were right and they will be paying for theirs for a long time to come!!!

Good Luck!! Never say never!!

[Return-On-Investment]

Thanks LAX.

Let's assume that commercial pilot training costs £60000. I'm worried that people do not realise just how much money this really is. Please let me explain how hard it is to save this much money:-

I had a part time job at University and graduated 14 years ago with no debts. I started work in sales for a Blue Chip company and have worked hard ever since. I am very fortunate in that I have always had a job with a fully expensed company car, pension, free shares etc and earned a decent living. I have been careful with money and have always saved/invested a certain percentage of my earnings. Along the way I have had the usual financial hurdles to overcome that most people have/will have i.e, buying my own home, getting married, having holidays, buying gadgets for my home, beer etc.

Just recently I realised I had enough in savings to fund pilot training. But, it has taken me 14 years of working hard, being frugal and saving to do it and in my line of work people don't pay for their training. Please do not underestimate how hard this has been.

The really scary thing is that someone can sign away £60000 + interest of their not even guaranteed future earnings in about 5 minutes by signing a piece of paper.

As I am not a pilot I know nothing about actually being one. However if real life professional pilots like WWW & G-SXTY are willing to invest their time and tell others how it is and that there are no jobs for the foreseeable I will listen. If and when the pros say the market is improving I might well go for it - with my own cash fully prepared that there is a risk I might lose it.

The only viable options I can see for wannabees at the moment is either:-

1. Pay as you go for your training and heed the advice of the pros when pacing yourself - always keep your account in credit.

2. Save now for your future training.

[b.a. Baracus]

PilotPieces,

Your way of thinking sounds fairly similar to mine. I have a full time job, and I am slowly building up hours on my PPL. I aim to challenge myself in each flight and avoid circuit bashing in order to advance my experience.

So not only am I slowly creeping the hours up, but I can also save a fair amount of money each month to put into the pot.

I don't intend to start ATPL groundschool until I have close to the 150, people may think this is a bad idea as you will not be as current for starting the CPL but I think it is a method best suited to these times.

......... Perhaps the Tortoise will win the race, maybe.

[PilotPieces]

Yeah, that is something that I have been told regarding the currency and any bad habits that I may have. However, surely having to iron these out during the CPL/IR is a thousand times better than trying to get a job with an fATPL having not flown for 2 years!

Personally, I don't see the rush. I want to enjoy flying on a PPL for a while rather than going straight to CPL level.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

ROI - congratulations on doing the thing the sensible way around.

It is very common to find a young FO with an £85k loan arranged by CTC with HSBC. The rate of interest is around 7%. When you look at the total repayment of the loan principal + the interest you arrive at a figure of around £140k usually with a typical ten year repayment plan following a one year repayment break post training.

Now that's fair enough but still scary when you're being placed straight into a profitable airline who will pay at conventional salary levels (albeit fiddled about with as loan repayments to make it more tax efficient). I can think of several ex-CTC cadets who got into BA as soon as they had 500hrs and are now year three BA pilots. Given their low seniority (nobody much has been hired behind them) they are not being able to bid for much work and no lucrative trips. With the loan repayments they are left each month with £1,500 to live off. In London/South East. A bit of rent, council tax, running the car, food and they have NOTHING left at the end of the month for any 'lifestyle' whatsoever. In one or two cases its move back into the parental home time already due to the burden of the debt. 25, a BA pilot NOT on a cadet salary and you're forced to live with your mum and dad still..

These debts are soooo easy to get into (well, they were) but the total repayments are huge. It takes so long to get back to being worth net nothing that you'll be well bored by your career choice before the loan is cleared.

Now put this scenario into the present context and remove the full time normal salary level employment and the risks are just insane. Pile an extra £33k on for one of MOL's type £16k type ratings or get lucky and hired by Flybe on the Dash for £29k and the numbers just do not add up if you're using borrowed money.

Of course, for the sensible man who is spending his saving and has no debt and no debt interest life is a lot more comfortable.


I used to think £55k was mega bucks to spend on starting a career as a commercial pilot. I spent £16.5k in 1998! Now I see people spending well North of £100k all the time.

Its become normal but it really isn't. The debt society that we have allowed to be built does none of us any good and I think that fact is growing into a widely held opinion.

WWW

[ricky81 sti]

Thanks to the wise works of WWW and the likes here on pprune i have taken the decision not to embark on the integrated route i once thought i would.

I am completing the sale of a business at the minute and with savings made over the past few years i should have north of £140k to play with but the thought of giving £100k of it away to OAA, CTC, etc and still have no job at the end of it scares me slightly:eek:

So i've made the decision to invest a good chunk of money, get a part time job and use my captial to go the modular route, i'm already 1/2 way through my PPL anyway so i'll continue on with my local school right through IMC, Night and up to 150hrs then take care of the ATPL's, IR, etc with one of the training schools when the time comes. I'm looking at a time of roughly 3 years from now to be sitting with my f(ATPL) and no debt.

Sensible decision or any thoughts which could see it wotk better for me??

[heli_port]

Yeah i totally agree with you W. I worked and saved up the money and although it's been 6 months since i finished i have nobody knocking on my door demanding money and i'm totally comfortable. I did get a phone call from BA giving me a start date for line training :) so it's not all doom and gloom :)

[G SXTY]

Ricky, that sounds like an entirely sensible plan, and I suspect your timescale is about right too. Even if it isn't, you'll have the flexibility to speed things up or slow down as appropriate.

Best of luck.

[mad_jock]

Where they hell have all these sensible wannabies suddenly appeared from?

WWW have you put a chav filter or maybe some special script which detects MS flight sim and auto deletes the bollocks posts automatically.

Only thing I would suggest to the ones that have a bit of cash is get a share in something and go and do some interesting hour building.

Some suggestions

go and have a moose burger in the artic circle.

Go for a tapas in Gib (wouldn't land there mind)

Have a look at other things which add character to your CV.

TA is out now because they have chopped the training.

Special constable

Mountain leader course if that floats your boat.

Scout leader.

Yacht Master.

Anything which your average person doesn't do.

Most of the CV's that get sent to airlines have absolutely nothing on them to distinguish from any other 200 hour pilot.
And some of the absolute rubbish that's put out you wonder if the person was on drugs thinking that is expectable to apply as an aircraft cleaner never mind drive the thing.

In the 3 years I have had access to the pile of CV's that float around, some of them never change. There is one bloke that lives in Birmingham who over the last 3 years has done 50 hours flying and still has the 2 same spelling mistakes on his CV that he produced when he left training in 2006.

My grammar and spelling are not the best and its something I have had to deal with through out my education/careers. These days there is no excuse for getting it wrong, computers can deal with most of it. There are coaches out there who are gifted in the subject. Our own Pilot Pete on pprune used to run such a service. Never used it myself but if your CV isn't working its worth a try.

Ohh and my FO debt record is 120k from a OAT trained, 2 self sponsored TR's . They are now earning 19k a year on a turboprop. Its utter madness. 2 years ago we would never see an OAT cadet or their CV's, now there are hundreds of them. And they just don't seem to see that promoting the virtues of a 737 EFIS JOC really doesn't help your cause when you are applying to fly a 25 year old steam instrument manual turboprop.

[v6g]

total repayment of the loan principal + the interest you arrive at a figure of around £140k

- which needs to be paid back with after tax earnings, therefore the poor sucker needs to earn something like £200k before he's clear.

But I guess you can't put a price on being able to tell chicks that you're an airline pilot.

[XX621]

But I guess you can't put a price on being able to tell chicks that you're an airline pilot.

...until you mention your salary and they realise they earn more than you. Unfortunately girls these days seem more interested in your credit card limit; where bigger is most definately better.

[Parson]

MJ,

Spelling mistakes asides, 50 hrs in three years isn't that bad though it would depend what they consisted off. At least he should be relatively current assuming some of that time is IR renewal. Endorse your other comments, though.

[mad_jock]

Actually I think 50hours in three years is pretty good actually alot more than most others.

It was more the point that even though his CV wasn't working he still kept pumping out the same trash year after year with the only changes being his total hours.

The fact that he had obviously included his sim hours into his total time did him no favours at all either.

[BarbiesBoyfriend]

It's always a good time to train!

Best time is when all the other guys think it's a bad time. Less competition! (and cheaper training)

When I started I received only advice NOT to bother due to recession etc.

I just laughed.

Popped out the sausage machine just as things were picking up and got hired more or less straightaway.:ok:

[Parson]

MJ - apologies, took your comment in the wrong sense.

Does raise the question of how best to keep current though, if one is not instructing for example. I guess whatever shows you still have an interest in flying and also keeps you sufficently current to be able to pass a type rating.

[mad_jock]

No apologies necessary, bad grammar don't you know :ok:

The how to keep current is a very good point for an ever increasing body of pilots both experienced and inexperienced.

You have to do something that is better than all the rest to be one of the first to be picked up when things start moving again.

[ricky81 sti]

Mad Jock

Funny you should say that, a couple of things which spring to mind would be a float plane course on a Maule M7 Amphibious at my local airfield right on the waters edge and something I've wanted to do for a long time is climb Mt Kilimanjaro, would be something to stick on the old CV a guess;)

[mad_jock]

I was going to suggest that Mountain but couldn't spell it so the mountain leaders course got mentioned instead.

The Maule on its own is OK but going on a tour of Alaska or Finland now your talking.

Your thinking along the right lines though.

Anything that makes the recruiter reread your CV and sets you apart from the other 1000 CV's they see day in day out with exactly the same license and hours.

[LAX]

My FO debt record is a friend of mine who told me - 2 or 3 yrs ago now - that he had done a special deal with his bank manager to pay 1500euro/month for 7 years then he would be clear with the bank, at which point he would then start paying his parents 1500euro/month for 7 years and then he would be finally debt free. Do the maths its an eye watering amount of cash!

And i'll throw in another word of warning out there despite the many on this forum. A colleagues son finished an integrated course recently, i have some sympathy as it was undertaken in conjunction with an airline with the prospect of a job at the end. Times changed - he works in a supermarket - loan payments start shortly - skills are fading while newbees graduate every month. Airlines have pilot jobs, not the flight schools.

Good luck to all, i dont blame anyone for wanting to train its a great job, please be sensible and realistic. Lets hope in the next few months we can kick Gordon is a Moron out of office and get someone in with a backbone to reel the bankers in and stop this financial, crazy, flight training madness:ugh: