Best weather sites ?

[Sutty]

Hi
Anyone got any suggestions for reliable (or even semi reliable!) weather sites for 5 to 10 day forecasts? I want to fly VFR from the midlands to Stavanger in Norway, but I can't leave it til 'the day before' to make alternatives as I HAVE to be there for work, so if there's any doubt, (and there always is!!) I have to use KLM instead. :bored: Nothing against KLM, just would rather do it in 3 hrs in my trusty Gardan, than 7 or 8 via Schipol.
thanks.

[LH2]

Well, you know the old saying: if you have time to spare... etc.

If you have to be there for work on a given day, then I would plan to fly at least two or three days before that date, and have another two or three days to spare on the other end too. Especially if flying SE VFR and over all that water (= no alternates. PNR approx. 1:45).

I don't know your experience, capabilities, equipment, or luck, but from what you have posted it sounds like an uncomfortably risky proposition.

Plan 'B': Buy a KLM ticket now just in case (perhaps on a refundable fare), and if the weather is 100% good on the day then you go smashing bugs, else you let someone else do the flying. Then of course the same considerations apply on the return leg. :)

[Sutty]

I'm going to really give the game away now.. (you correctly guessed I am a low [70hrs] PPL).. Google offered "Phillipine National Railway" for PNR.. I'm guessing that's not what you meant..? :ouch::)

That said, if I had to have a fan stop, I'd much rather it was over the North Sea, (my second home, as I work offshore, with accompanying helicopter escape and survival training, and my little plane is brimming with liferafts, PLBs, lifejackets etc), than over Wolverhampton - 'CTF ratio' way too high... (Chimney to Field ratio). (Somebody's bound to post the 'glide clear' rule now!)

Anyway, we digress.. I still want to know what websites you experienced guys use when making your own Go/NoGo decisions. The more the better.
thanks, Mark.

[Genghis the Engineer]

What I'm told by some quite senior people at the Met Office is that at present the state of science and technology available, combined with the nature of British/European weather mean that it's not possible to forecast with any accuracy beyond 5 days.

The UK Met Office have an ongoing research objective of extending their forecasting capability by another day up to 6 days. They're throwing millions at this, and hope to be able to achieve this within a few years but, at the moment, won't give a timescale for this.

In that perspective, I'd not trust a 5-10 day forecast for the UK or surrounding countries as being useful at any level beyond climatic means - which doesn't really need a forecast.

It's a bugger isn't it!

G

[twentygrand]

Try this one Wind Map - Britain Observations (http://www.xcweather.co.uk/)

[Lightning6]

It all depends on how stable the weather is, as we all know it can change at the drop of a hat, I've been caught out crossing the Irish sea, that's another story, as far as flying is concerned, you need to get a good weather report on a day-to day basis, anything longer than that is guess work. If in a stable weather situation probably not a problem... but, obviously has to be checked as soon as you can before departure, through past experience, I wouldn't trust a weather report until the day of departure....Weather sites? Pass on that, a bit out of touch these days.

[IO540]

I don't think that

Norway
Weather forecasting

should ever be mentioned in the same sentence :)

The weather up that way is hugely variable. Maybe 90% of the time it is hugely sub-VFR and with a lot of turbulence and icing conditions for IFR. Most of the time the coast is covered in fronts of every possible type. Just take one look at the MSLP chart, every day, and you will see what I mean.

I'd take an airline, and use the little plane for travel to places with nice weather.

[ExSp33db1rd]

Go to www.metvuw.com (http://www.metvuw.com) / forcast charts / 3 day or 7 day ( your choice ) / UK Region ( or whatever you wish to view )

This is mainly a rainfall prediction, and wind direction, but is colour coded, and from my experience the lightest two shades of mauve are usually acceptable, you might have to dodge around the odd shower, but nothing major.

If you are heading into a dark blue area, could be marginal VFR, and if it is red - stay at home !!

It is a NZ site, and for NZ weather it is uncannily accurate, can't comment on UK or Europe, give it a go and assess.

[Fark'n'ell]

Sutty Get some help and learn how to read a weather map.Look at the satellite pictures of the corresponding time and you may begin to get some understanding of what is going to happen in the next few hours.This will give you the big picture but remember terrain,temperature and wind can make a big difference in local areas when it comes to VFR flying.Weather in the UK and parts or NW Europe is a little more complex than NZ due to the closer proximity to the Polar region and greater land masses nearby.Learn all you can about the weather,it may save your life one day.Forget about engine failures and all that rubbish.I have done a lot of time over water in a single engine aircraft and have not have had any problems.Know your point of no return and make sure you stick to it.From GB to parts of Europe you have a lot of options.Fecking site more than we do in NZ if going offshore in a single.
All the best Sutty but remember luck is not part of the equation but Good planning is

Fark

[IO540]

Practically all free aviation weather sites that cover Europe get their data from the US run GFS model e.g.

NOAA (http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php)

There are countless websites presenting GFS data either directly or with some post-processing. Have a look at Meteoblue (http://my.meteoblue.com/my/) for example. But it is basically all GFS. The UK Met office provides what they provide and everything else is confidential and is sold to commercial users.

With GFS you can get 2 weeks ahead but it will be largely fiction that far ahead - especially with regard to timing.

[ShyTorque]

Never rely on a VFR aircraft/pilot combination for business travel, or any other essential journey, especially over water. It's just not a safe prospect.

For example, where will you get an en-route actual from, prior to the journey? How will you know what the over water weather is? If you received a "Go" forecast but it isn't quite correct and you met up with poor weather half way across, or beyond, say twenty miles off the Norwegian coast, requiring flight in IMC, what would you do?

Take the hit and buy the KLM ticket. "We don't want no more stats here".

[IO540]

I would not put it in quite as a restrictive way.

There IS a big problem in doing business travel using GA (VFR or IFR) because, in most cases, you do not want to advertise your means of travel (your expensive hobby) to your customer ;)

Yet, one cannot generally cancel a business meeting. It looks bad.

And if you cancel due to weather, he will discover your expensive hobby ;)

This means that unless the GA flight is 100% assured, you have to travel using conventional means.

I have done some business travel (~ 10% of total time in some years past) and in carefully selected situations it worked well. I have a customer located miles from nowhere, a pig to drive to (5-8hrs; one drives the night before and stays in a hotel) but easy to fly to (1:20hrs).

A delivery-only flight is a legitimate business trip too, and that really opens up the options.

IFR (whether airways, or "informal UK IFR") does not help massively, I find, because most UK GA airfields have no IAPs or a nearby radar service, and are usually not accessible in typical UK frontal weather.

[LH2]

Google offered "Phillipine National Railway" for PNR

PNR = Point of No Return (aka PSR for "safe" return :rolleyes:)

That said, if I had to have a fan stop, I'd much rather it was over the North Sea

No you wouldn't.

I still want to know what websites you experienced guys use when making your own Go/NoGo decisions

Personally, I use the official aeronautical weather information provided by a suitable meteorological agency (usually the one in the country I'm flying in/through), augmented and explained by a personal brief wherever a meteorologist is available in person or on the phone. If the conditions are not clear-cut I will also seek advice from experienced pilots more familiar than me with the area.

Hope this helps.

[RatherBeFlying]

There have been trips where I had an airline ticket in my pocket and used it when the weather that day was no good -- and much better days when I cancelled the airline reservation.

My first thought is that over water to Norway brings up the question of alternates -- a difficult question if near the limit of range.

Mountainous terrain always commands respect; combine it with close proximity to the sea and we have a nasty combination.

I would suggest first crossing to the Dutch or German coast and filling the tanks at an intermediate spot unless the a/c upon arriving over Norway could continue to Denmark or Sweden if necessary.

Gas in the tanks gives you options for diverting to good weather; so, if it all looks like dodgy weather enroute or at destination, the trick is to fill the tanks shortly before entering said dodgy area and turning back or diverting to known good weather if necessary.

Much more critical than the forecast for getting out is what it will be on the way back. I was once driving East over Lk. Superior being pursued by a warm front and stopped at Sault Ste. Marie to get some 100 octane (which my car at the time needed) and spotted the a/c in which I had got my instrument rating parked on the ramp. I had visions of flying it home to Toronto. I later learned that the VFR pilot who rented it had flown up with his g/f to take the Agawa Canyon train ride on a Sunday, returned to find the warm front had camped over the airport and without an IFR rating, had to take the bus back to get to work, then had to go back to retrieve the a/c. No cell phones that day or I would have offered a vehicle trade with him:E

Would there be an airport in Denmark, even Sweden, with more reliable weather from where you could hop over?

Once in Norway, keep a close eye on the weather and be ready to make a quick escape if it looks like you are about to be bottled in.

[Sutty]

Thanks to everyone who replied, (and especially those with tips for additional weather information) - and.. you'll be relieved to hear that I'll be 'self loading freight' flying from Rennes - Paris - Amsterdam - Stavanger, and I'll have to leave at 2pm on Thurs just to be there for my helicopter checkin at 11am the next day. ( I actually live in Brittany, but hop over GA to Tatenhill to see ma & pa, hence the ref to the midlands, but, so far, never gone further). Ultimately, I know that the go/nogo has to be made on the day, and with the best information technology can provide, whether you are going 30 miles or 300, but, one day there will be a 3 day window with guaranteed 2500 minimum cloud base, and no CBs, and I'll be able to do it. For me, flying is too expensive to be only a bit of fun, it has to be at least a bit useful too. I'm studying for my IMC rating, and that's making me a better pilot, bit by bit. And if the boys and girls at the met office are doing their best to raise the bar a bit too,.. well, there's definitely hope!
BTW, this thread might be a bit of a resource for others too, so keep it coming with your favourite 'met' sites! :)
thanks again, Mark

[ShyTorque]

Sutty, good, safe choice. Good luck with your IMC rating. :ok: