Most Accurate Site for Weather Forecasts?

[rich_g85]

Hi all,
Just trying to work out whether my lesson is likely to go ahead this weekend, or whether to re-arrange for tomorrow or Friday as I have the time off work.

I've checked the Met Office and Metcheck and they both say something slightly different.

Just wondering which site you find is most accurate with it's 2-3 day forecasts, and which of the above is to be believed!

Thanks

[RedPortLeft]

I would say metcheck is slightly nearer the mark than the met office but neither can be relied upon - it's only an educated guess after all :) The met office seems to go for worst case scenario.
Have you tried xcweather - I'm not mad on the site design but the forecasts seem reasonable ?
RPL

[worrab]

metoffice.gov.uk is generally pretty good. If you're seeing discrepancies between two sites' forecasts it's probably because there is some uncertainty about what weather to expect.
I presume the present 2-day forecasts are similar and that it's the 3-day ones that are divergent?

[airborne_artist]

The Met Office is warning of heavy thundery showers in the SW of England on Friday, which must be correct as it's Glastonbury w/e. Sat may be better, but it's one of the summer weekends when rain, hail, and plagues of frogs are almost certain in Zummerzet.

[worrab]

If reduced vis due locusts (or frogstorm for that matter) is forecast, is it the Met Office's job to promulgate it? (Or indeed forecast smoke)

[pulse1]

I think that the Met Office is wasting our resources by giving any detailed forecast for longer than 24 hours. It is pure guess work and they are not very good at it. It is even more absurd that they give us forecasts for the whole Summer. It is a total waste of money and of no value whatsoever.

You can look at a synoptic chart and make your own forecast. You have as much chance of getting it right as the Met Office does.

[IO540]

The kind of wx we are having right now is basically impossible to forecast.

Look at the MSLP chart. You see nothing much well defined; just a load of low pressure bits and a load of high pressure bits, but nothing that can make up its mind about what it wants to do.

This is not the usual SW flow which dominates the s. UK picture, with its predictable conveyor belt of fronts and with OK wx in between the fronts.

[Jim59]

Welcome at topmeteo.eu (http://www.topmeteo.eu/go/home)

is pretty good - but you have to pay. I do and find it worthwhile.

[rsuggitt]

I look at it this way... the Met Office own and run the observation network... run the UK hub of the worldwide meteorological communication network... run the multi-level forecast models on their supercomputers (not in just a research mode) ... so I assume their forecasts are the authoritative ones.

[pulse1]

The kind of wx we are having right now is basically impossible to forecast.


I know that and, hopefully, the Met Office know that. So why do they persist in forecasting it. They are so inaccurate that they are of no use whatsoever.

I have spent my adult life trying to plan weather critical activities. I do not believe that outlook forecasts are any better now than they have ever been. What has changed is that the Met Office wastes resources in presenting them as if they are an exact science.

Edited to say that I find the best aid to assessing how the weather is developing is:

GFS Forecast Model Animation (http://www.ready.noaa.gov/ready-bin/jmovie.pl?id=GFS&mdl=grads/gfs/europe&file=panel2&nplts=31)

[IO540]

So why do they persist in forecasting it. They are so inaccurate that they are of no use whatsoever.

Because they make £ millions / year from preparing forecasts for firms like the BBC etc, and from flogging access to their top secret 3D weather model data to commercial weather repackagers.

They also benefit from a "close" relationship with businesses like the CAA which has de facto integrated the UKMO weather product into PPL training; so well that most PPLs think they are illegal unless they get a UKMO briefing (which is totally untrue).

Actually, the free U.S. run GFS weather model (here (http://www.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php), and used by nearly all "free" weather websites) is practically as good. But it is accessible only via the internet which doesn't officially exist so no you cannot use this in the PPL.

A forecaster will always have an opinion (just like me then ;) ) but the trick is to get him to tell you a confidence level. Right now, the CL is very poor if you are looking for a 24hr forecast of say cloud cover.

I know very little about weather (I am just an internet weather website button pusher) but I think pilots would benefit from keeping half an eye on the MSLP charts, rather than taking TAFs at face value. When the confidence is low, the TAF will be so vague it doesn't mean a lot, for VFR flight purposes.

[Charles E Taylor]

Try this.

Aviation Weather >> Europe > metar taf sigmet notam winds aloft significant weather information (http://euro.wx.propilots.net/)

Links to everything.







Charlie

[beatnik]

I have found www.xcweather.co.uk (http://www.xcweather.co.uk) to be pretty reliable. Click on your airfield to switch between the curreent METAR and a 5 day forecast.

On the day of flying, I find MET'MAP - ORBIFLY FLIGHT SCHOOL - IFR ET CPL AMERICAIN EN EUROPE - FAA IFR AND CPL IN EUROPE (http://www.orbifly.com/ORBITEST/metmap.php) a very useful resource as it shows all the METARS from various airports and gives a colour coded visual representation of weather conditions across the area you wish to fly.

Hope that helps

Cheers
Nik

[Dan Winterland]

The US Government site is the best in my experience.

NWS IWS - Aviation Observations (http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/coded.html)