Avgas

[T-21]

With the price of fuel rocketing and some clubs adding fuel surcharges the future looks challenging for some clubs to survive. Is it really bad out there ?

[TheOddOne]

Our 1-aircraft Group's flying is 10% up on last year, but we've prudently put up our hourly rate by £10 to reflect increases in AVGAS so far this year and hopefully future-proof through the Summer. The local schools are passing on the fuel cost increases.

Any FTO or RF that doesn't increase prices at least in line with increased costs WILL go to the wall sooner or later. Trying to absorb these increases or hoping the price of AVGAS will come down again is a short way to ruin.

Actually, as people are expecting prices to go up, this is a good time to increase them above the actual rise in costs and improve Instructor wages etc.

People with a passion for flying will still assign the resources to satisfy their desires - we had huge inflation in the 1970s and a doubling in oil prices overnight. It didn't stop people flying then so why should it now? Look around the car park at the airfield - still plenty of 07 and 08 high-end cars in there! (The Y-plate bangers belong to the instructors & Ops staff.) There's plenty of money about - we just need to attract those with it to come and spend it with us.

TheOddOne

[civil aviation]

Recreational flying is discretionary (spending).
The credit, inflation and loss of confidence 'concerns' are all making people cut-back (or simply be more cautious or conservative) in spending, in order to conserve or save cash, for essentials (or a 'rainy day').
Demand will decline and plenty of clubs and other businesses who serve this aviation market will close. Underlying this is the cost of fuel for aviation and other purposes (e.g. driving to airfield !)- the main cost of which is, still, tax.

BTW, I don't understand 'fuel surcharges' because they offer to supply fuel at £x.yzPence per litre and you decide whether or not buy any. If you are on wet hire, the hourly rate includes fuel so any surcharges are a 'con'. If you are a member, of a genuine club, make a written complaint to the Secretary.

[Fuji Abound]

People with a passion for flying will still assign the resources to satisfy their desires

Sorry, laudable but naive.

The recreational pilot population consists of a range of pilots from those for whom the cost is not a concern to those who count the last five minutes of hire time. Talk to any club and the price any aircraft is hired at is a significant factor in the take up to the extent that an extra tenner will result in one aircraft being more popular than another even though the other is more desirable.

Take a straw pole of the amount of fuel being purchased at most airports and you will realise how dramatically the number of hours flown has fallen in the last few months.

Even those for whom the cost is not an issue may well be find that they are devoting more time to their businesses in the current more difficult climate with in consequence their recreational flying suffering.

Those seem to be the facts - I wish it were not so even if seeing a whole lot fewer contacts on the TCAS today was welcome.