Pilot shortages, News Events, And What Are The Effects On Airline Jobs? [Archive]

scroggs

3rd Aug 2004, 12:07

Try these links for a start (despite what you can see, they are all different!):

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=139676&highlight=pilot+shortage

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=138888&highlight=pilot+shortage

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=138765&highlight=pilot+shortage

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=138480&highlight=pilot+shortage

There is not a shortage of newly-qualified pilots. There is the beginnings of a shortage of pilots with specific qualifications. By 'the beginnings' I mean that major companies (mainly Mid and Far Eastern) are, for the first time in several years, starting to advertise for pilots. The kind of pilots they want are B777/747 and A340/330 captains and SFOs with several thousand hours. At the moment, the companies advertising are not offering great terms (i.e. they're offering what they've paid their guys for the last four years or more), and they're unlikely to attract many folks from other major airlines until they offer better terms. That will happen, slowly, as they realise that they're not getting the response they need - and as the huge pool of FAA-licensed pilots furloughed from the US majors dries up, which it will eventually.

In the meantime, the European majors are also beginning to look for people once again. They're not looking for lots of people, but they are looking for some - again, rated and experienced. At the moment, the numbers being talked about aren't even enough to replace those retiring, but that will change. With a few exceptions, there aren't great plans afoot for expansion either in Europe or the US (unlike the Mid and Far East), so I don't expect there to be a great or sudden increase in the number of jobs for newly-qualified fATPLs in those regions anytime soon, but there will be a steady improvement.

What the longer term future holds is in the lap of the Gods. If the global economic recovery continues, without interruption from Al Qaeda and others, there will be a consequent improvement in the fortunes of the airlines which will have a proportional effect on the market for new pilots. But, even in this rosy scenario, you must remember that economies are cyclical, and the effects of downturns in economies are exaggerated in the airline business. The cycle is approximately 10 years or so long. It's been a year - maybe two - since the depths of the last trough, so we can expect maybe 6 years of growth before a two-year descent into the next recession or downturn. Your aim should be to get yourself a job in that six-year 'high'! And, remember, that's the rose-tinted view; as HWD suggests, it could all go pear-shaped again tomorrow!

Scroggs

Wee Weasley Welshman

3rd Aug 2004, 12:50

Wise words all.

Its been a funny old month. On the one hand a couple of friends in MYT are facing the dole whilst on the other a couple have been hired straight into decent jet jobs in the UK. Its definitely a mixed up market right now - but given the despairing permafrost endured over the last near 3 years it is at least encouraging.

I think I remember saying it would take something like 3 years after Sept 11th for the job market to pick up. Here we are and arguably it is. UK annual growth of 4% and with growth on the Continent finally picking up things are going to get better - sometime.

But its a long way from good and don't believe anyone who talks of a shortage for at least another 3 years. Even then the 'shortage' just means a few lucky people get offered airline interviews without having to try very hard. Thats a long way from getting checked out on the line though.

My view is that its currently a good time to be getting a PPL 100hrs and start distance learning the ATPLs. Jacking in the job and blowing £20k on a CPL Multi IR can wait a while longer.

Get the timing right and it all looks so easy. Get it wrong and it can ruin your life. Seriously.

Cheers

WWW

BillieBob

4th Aug 2004, 13:42

This mythical pilot shortage gets an airing from time to time - usually when the schools are having difficulty filling their quotas. The worst offender is the marketing department of a certain FTO west of London that has seems to have a particularly tenuous grip on reality (and truth).

Don't rely on any sudden explosive demand for 200-hour unrated pilots - it ain't going to happen. A few newbies will get jobs, as they always have, but there are a lot of highly experienced, type-rated pilots on the market who are far more attractive to the airlines.

flapsnslats

5th Aug 2004, 15:44

I took me first lesson in the year 2000.
And since that time I have come across all kinds of people
from ops people to schools to captains to students.
there will never be a wave such as predicted in my opinion.
Because airline managment are quite skilled at what the do.
As captains gain years of experience they become ridiculously expensive to employ like any industry the get early retirement waved in front of them.some snap it up then move on get another job.then theres upgrades and new f/os get their foot in the door.There is never going to be a mass exodus just a constant trickle. So you better not hand over huge amounts of money to flying schools on that reason alone.

Kerropi

1st Sep 2005, 08:14

Hi all :D

What's the assesment now on the job market. Heard a lot of good things lately. Is it picking up? or still the same as one year ago?

K.

jetrider757

29th Sep 2005, 09:14

flapsnslats

I see you've not been flying very long but you really have offer a little more in the way of encouragement to those out there embarking on this profession.

As a captain in the UK, it is obvious to see things are going in the right direction. The amount of airlines in the UK recruiting is increasing all the time, the economy is pointing the right way at long last and I feel the only problem is the threat of terrorism - and you'd need a crystal ball for that one. The only negative point is that pay scales are forever changing as accountants run the show and force new joiners to start on lesser salaries. ( a job for the union) Captains don't get early retirement waved at them as most are having to work until 60 as their pensions are down the pan thanks to this government.

Sure, none of us know what's around the corner but do let up and coming pilots be optimistic. At present I feel they have a right to be, as all the indicators are currently fair to good.

High Wing Drifter

29th Sep 2005, 14:39

My updated analysis is that pilot salaries will fall in real terms before bottoming. Then again, salaries in other highly paid sectors such as IT are also falling in real terms.

I believe, over the longer term, the reason aviation will be in a boom and yet salaries will still drop (in real terms or course) is that the industry is moving to a greater quantity of smaller flights. Therefore, the increase in the number of pilots and planes is disproportionatly larger when compared to the increase in the number of passengers. I can't say this will be the case when examining an instantaneous snapshot, like the current situation, but overall I get the impression this is the business model of the future.

Jinkster

30th Sep 2005, 16:15

I hear rumours of a pilot shortage somewhere on this planet, but where?

I will move anywhere, but one snag, I only speak English! :rolleyes:

TenAndie

30th Sep 2005, 17:24

China and Russia

beamer

1st Oct 2005, 06:37

Shortage = well lets see, BA,VIRGIN,TC.FC,Monarch,FLYBE,Thomson to name but a few all recruiting now - the shortage is of suitably qualified pilots and the definition of that concept is what this forum is partly about !

scroggs

1st Oct 2005, 14:30

I should point out to all that this thread first aired in 2004 and was ressurrected the other day. You might want to bear that in mind before putting finger to keyboard!

Scroggs

Jimmy The Big Greek

25th Jul 2006, 00:14

Just booked a flight ticket and I noticed that the price of the ticket has gone up about 30 euros. I asked the reason for this and they told me that the fuel prices has gone up.

I am really affraid that people are going to travel less and that we are going in to a very deep aviation regression thus more difficult for us to find work.

Are there any reports that the employment of pilots is going to get much tuffer?

Lucifer

25th Jul 2006, 08:35

This is purely a knee-jerk reaction / profiteering.
Tosh - China is in overdrive producing cheap everything for stores globally. Growing 11.7% in the last quarter on an annualised basis, oil prices have risen due to such large anticipated increases in demand outstripping supply.

Profiteers have nothing to do with it - no one trading company can have any effect on the market price as a whole as it is so vast. Although a trader could corner the market in one grade of crude, it is quite obvious when that happens and fines would be imposed (see BP and their current N American trading operations).

Traders ensure liquidity in the marketplace - what is very hard to do is any "profiteering" in a global market.

Middle East - the oil producers can't afford to get involved - even Iran.

scroggs

25th Jul 2006, 09:05

So long as the conflict doesn't spread - and there's no suggestion that it will - there is no need to worry about any fall-out for aviation.

Other than Japan, of course. The Japanese will stop travelling. They always do, whenever they think we're about to start another WW. They've done so several times in only the last 15 years.

Scroggs

Jimmy The Big Greek

25th Jul 2006, 11:06

I really hope that you are right scroggs.

scroggs

25th Jul 2006, 13:54

Don't get me wrong: there are plenty of pressures building up against aviation, and the Western economies in general. We are getting to the point where we (those economies) are overdue for a downturn - and there's always a downturn, about once every 10 years or so. Yes, I know about 9/11 and SARS (I was close to redundancy myself then), but the effects were transient, and were almost entirely confined to tourism and aviation - the Western economies were, and remained, strong throughout. A more fundamental economic downturn is what I'm talking about - and it won't be caused by Israel!

Scroggs

Mister-Sheep

25th Jul 2006, 22:47

Scroggs

From your experience, would you say this is due in the next 1-2 years?

Jimmy The Big Greek

25th Jul 2006, 22:59

I really hope that you are not right scroggs :}

scroggs

26th Jul 2006, 08:27

Scroggs

From your experience, would you say this is due in the next 1-2 years?

I'm not an economist, but I suspect we have already peaked in this cycle.

Scroggs

bear11

26th Jul 2006, 08:50

Lucifer, I beg to differ. Didn't the oil price change over a dollar a barrel last week after one analyst on one TV station expressed an opinion on whether there would be an Israeli invasion or not? Prices are driven by sentiment, and profits are driven by 1) fluctuations in prices to allow traders to earn commission, and 2) higher prices - if you stay on the same margins, your profits are far higher, witness the enormous profits currently being made by oil companies. China is a red herring - it is a major factor in higher prices, but are you telling me they would be as high with China but without what has happened in the Middle East?

Scroggs knows as well as anyone else the cyclical nature of the business, and the source of a potential downturn is irrelevant - because if it's not one thing it's something else. I would suggest that much higher oil prices will shut down airlines, especially recent startups or LCCs who got their pricing or strategy wrong. The survivors will be the more established majors or LCCs with deep pockets - less airlines will mean less choice and higher prices, apart from the higher costs due to fuel bills.

sicky

26th Jul 2006, 12:23

To be honest i was absolutely shocked to see prices go up by 2-3p on petrol, as i'd heard on the news a couple of times last week that oil prices and gone down slightly!!

TruTh747

26th Jul 2006, 16:59

I really hope that you are not right scroggs :}

I hope you are wrong too scroggs because i am about to invest a large amount of money into flight training...:= ....

beamer

26th Jul 2006, 17:39

Sicky - if you are that worried about the cost of fuel, consider for a moment the percentage of the price at the pump which goes into the Chancellors pocket. The recent price rises to not appear to have reduced the number of cars on the road - drivers will make sacrifices elsewhere in their budgets in order to keep driving.

Some of us remember interest rates at 15-17% - now that would really make a few eyes water !

747dieseldude

26th Jul 2006, 18:19

I see a lot of international money poured in to Lebanon, to help re-builed the country.
This means some cargo traffic over there, including support for the international force that will be stationed there.

scroggs

26th Jul 2006, 19:37

International money into Lebanon, if and when it does happen, is not going to make a blind bit of difference to the world economy.
There are many pressures on that economy at the moment, and most of them are inflationary. Inflation means higher interest rates, which slow - or even stop - industrial growth. If higher rates are applied quickly and fairly ruthlessly, those inflationary pressures can be halted - if they are under the influence of the economy setting the rates. At the moment, the main inflationary pressure is fuel (oil, gas and electricity) costs, most of which will not respond to interest rate changes in the US or EU. That means that those extra and increasing costs, along with those caused by the inevitable higher interest rates, must continue be absorbed by industries out of margins which are reducing due to competitive pressures, and need to be factored into long-term costings in those companies which have long term policies. Which isn't many.

I think that the West is going to suffer in the short to medium term because of these inflationary pressures, and that the airline industry will exaggerate the general trend, as it always does. When will the downturn come? I think it's already started, but it's a gentle slope as yet. I haven't read an economic forecast yet that suggests that oil prices are likely to drop significantly, and oil futures suggest longer-term prices of $100+ a barrel in the next year or two. With aviation fuel at $750 or so a tonne right now (it was $250 only two years ago), that suggests that $1000 - $1100 a tonne is not far away. Few airlines can sustain a further 25 - 30% increase in fuel prices without drawing in the financial reins somewhat. And now the EU is set to impose fuel taxes...

I'd guess that we won't see much change this year, but that the evidence will begin to stack up next year that a general downturn is on the way. Maybe next year, maybe in two years' time. It could then take 18 months to 3 years for us to reach the bottom of that trough before we start climbing out of it again. How deep will the trough be? Too difficult to judge; there are far too many uncertainties to even hazard a guess - especially for a non-expert like me. It could be a minor blip, or it could be a significant slowdown affecting most industrial and financial areas. The only thing that's certain is that it will come, and that we'll look back on 2004-2006 (as we did on 1997-2001) as one of aviation's high spots.

Scroggs

Leezyjet

10th Aug 2006, 18:30

Just wonered what the thoughts were from other people going through flying training at the moment in light of today's events in the UK.

Does this make you more determined to continue and get that flying job, or now wishing (as more events like this occur) you had chose a different career path ?.

For me, I'm still just as determined as ever, I've already been in the industry for 14 years on the ground, so events like this make no difference for me.

:\

ultimatepro63

10th Aug 2006, 18:39

YUP still want to be a Pilot and i will never change my mind :p

Pilot RatBoy

10th Aug 2006, 18:52

Great minds think alike leezyjet. I was going to ask the very same question! In my opinion, NOTHING will stop the dream that I have held since I was 7 years old. The only way to show these b@$t@rd$ who's boss is by not letting them dictate our lives.

sicky

10th Aug 2006, 19:55

This has had not changed my mind at all either. However, it could trigger another downturn in air travel due to people just not wanting to take the risks, which would unfortunately kill off a lot of the potential jobs for people like us.

We'll just have to wait and see now...

Glasgow_Flyer

10th Aug 2006, 20:25

downturn in air travel due to people just not wanting to take the risks

Risks are one thing - but also the inability to do any work while on the a/c is going to make me consider using rail travel a bit more. Infact, I wouldn't be surprised if the powers that be at work tell us to avoid domestic air travel until use of laptops (or even pens!) is allowed again.

Glasgow_Flyer

10th Aug 2006, 20:40

P.S. I've always wondered why they ban tweezers etc but allow you to take loads of bottles of duty free on board... Im guessing a large glass bottle over the captains head would cause more damage than trying to stab him with a pair of tweezers?!

Do I detect a grudge after having to surrender the contents of your make-up bag to some security dude?! :)

Cirrus_Clouds

10th Aug 2006, 20:43

Yep, this hasn't put me off wanting to achieve my ambition.

When ambitions are so great since a young age, one will achieve them.

What we have learnt is that since Sep. 11th, terrorism is a thing we will all have to live with throughout our lives, as it quite unlikely will disappear.

I would also be concerned about what effect this might have on the industry and obtaining that first job, but I think based on these terrorists being caught "before" they are able to carry out their terror, will minimize the overall effects on the industry.
I would hate to think if we had to go through another low point.

Sadly, as like many things, aviation is vulnerable to terrorism. :(

scroggs

10th Aug 2006, 20:52

You can't get to the captain, as he's behind a locked and armoured door. You can try it on your next door neighboor if you like, but I'm not taking the aeroplane anywhere other than where I want to, even if his head's a bloody pulp.

As for jobs, yes, the events of today will have some effect on passengers. The Japanese will largely stop flying, as they always do whenever a security event happens in a tiurist destination. Some Americans will also cancel flights, as their airlines were the targets of this plot. As the dollar is worth sod all just now, many had decided to holiday in the USA anyway, so the percentage difference won't be high.

Most other nationalities will carry on as they were. Even after 9/11, passenger loads bottomed out at around 70% of normal (after the first few days). Today's events will have little effect after a week or two. Hand-baggage restrictions are likely to be lifted in time, though more effective screening of hand-baggage may be introduced. Explosive and chemical detection will be one of the first new things to be introduced on hand-baggage screening - it's already being deployed for passenger screening. Intelligence-led passenger profiling (currently illegal in some countries) will increasingly be applied whether legal or not.

If all this does something to temper the currently crazy rate of aviation expansion, that won't be a bad thing. There are far more serious threats to aviation on the horizon - fuel taxation among them. It would be something of a breath of fresh air (pun intended) for the industry forecasters and investors to stop believing that this industry can expand indefinitely with no limits, checks or controls.

Scroggs

helicopter-redeye

10th Aug 2006, 20:56

Airlines unsafe?

Boost for the corporate jet and helicopter market!

(and v-v)

For every cloud, ...

h-r;)

Cirrus_Clouds

10th Aug 2006, 20:58

It's time we start producing a/c that run on alternative fuels!

scroggs

10th Aug 2006, 21:00

True as that may be, what has that - exactly - to do with today's events?

Scroggs

future captain

10th Aug 2006, 21:46

hi guys i just received and information pack from oxford aviation training and just wondering if anyone knows how much it costs to accomplish the ATPL and ready to go for type rating?
cheers
P.S im soo confused wether to go florida or stsy in UK and do it and pay more money.

if theres any oxford graduates please advice me
thanks

Random lol, the price will be in the information pack or check the website, this thread was about something completly different, should have had a look round first, can't go jumping into this thread.

I live right next to heathrow, its madness at the moment, my cusin is a cabin crew member for BA he went off this morning, and my dad returned back from a holiday this morning :eek:

Cirrus_Clouds

10th Aug 2006, 22:28

"If all this does something to temper the currently crazy rate of aviation expansion, that won't be a bad thing. There are far more serious threats to aviation on the horizon - fuel taxation among them."

"True as that may be, what has that - exactly - to do with today's events?"

.. I was referring to what you were saying about fuel tax. The other problem is changing the fuel source!; which may result in low fuel tax in the long run... that's how it's linked, to your reply. :ok:

"kazi285" .. yes, slightly random LOL! .. hey he's cheering up the topic! :D

XL319

10th Aug 2006, 22:50

I'll still fly. The day you change ur plans the terrorists have won.

EpsilonVaz

11th Aug 2006, 05:56

PPL152

11th Aug 2006, 06:06

If these events put you off becoming a pilot, then I definately recommend you go find a nice office job and do that for the rest of your life from 9 - 5, because your heart isn't in the right place.

EpsilonVaz

Ah.. an office isn't good for that kinda chap neither... what if a plane crashes in the building, like the WTC, or it catches fire or whatever?

Anything can happen anywhere, these attacks gain more attention as they are probably less common then say, a fire in an office building or something wrong going on the substratum.... or else it could be just for political agenda.. dunno..

but I'm sure that kind of thinkin would lead you nowhere...!

Fair_Weather_Flyer

11th Aug 2006, 09:08

Well, an event like this should make you think long and hard about choosing aviation as a career. The whole pilot dream hangs on a fine thread. Any terrorist attack, war, oil shock, taxation, recession or anything of that ilk means that you may well be left unemployed and/or with no way back into the industry. Most of the wannabees reading this were not around these forums during the 2000 - 2003 period. Back in 2000 things were much like they are now; jobs around and plenty of hope. 9/11 changed all that and left experienced guys like Scroggs wondering when they were going to be laid off and newbies with 60k of debt and a qualification that wasn't going to lead to a job. That's pretty much how things were for the next couple of years. I'm not saying don't train, but do worry!

Seat1APlease

11th Aug 2006, 09:33

Whilst the risks of being killed at work are probably higher for a taxi driver or bus driver than for a pilot even after this week's events, I do think that aviation is not going to carry on growing at the exponential rate it has over the past few years.

UK Airports are full and further expansion is going to be resisted. Oil prices continue to rise and there is pressure for carbon tax which may or may not happen.

Either way ticket prices will rise, and security worries will be just one more twist of the knife.

By all means train but think long and hard about what happens to jobs and salaries if the industry hits a downturn, and even more carriers lose money and go to the wall than do now.

The Mixmaster

11th Aug 2006, 11:35

Isn't all this chat about an industry downturn a bit premature and a little reactionary? The plot was foiled, it didn't actually happen unlike 9/11. I believe 9/11 was uniquely different to this event in the fact we actually saw the video footage of planes crashing into buldings thus sending out a far more powerful message to the western world and indeed the aviation industry. As Scroggs was saying, the impending increase in fuel tax and quite possibly higher temperature sin the UK are more likely to lead to less passengers than a foiled terrorist attack.

scroggs

11th Aug 2006, 15:01

For a general prognosis for civil aviation, see here (http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpost.php?p=2741585&postcount=15). Yesterday's events will have little effect even in the short term, I think you'll find.

Scroggs

Yistoph

11th Aug 2006, 17:55

I'm still firmly holding on to my place for the Wannabe Pprune Seminar in September! :E
All the best
Yistoph

EI-Shamrock

11th Aug 2006, 18:27

If anything, I think it's encouraging that the authorities foiled this plot which ultimately would have resulted in mass devastation. The skies are safer because of them. :ok:

wingnut-will

12th Aug 2006, 07:33

If anything, I think it's encouraging that the authorities foiled this plot which ultimately would have resulted in mass devastation. The skies are safer because of them. :ok:

Absolutley. Kudos to our lads at MI-5 and MI-6! looks like they finally called one right! (Kidding!!:} )

But answering something scroggs said, I recall last month I was on a BA flight from Malta, I went to the loo up in business class (not bragging here, travelling's in me job) and the cockpit door was wide open as the F/O went back to the cockpit. I thought to myself, if I was a terrorist, I could easily jump 'em. Thing is cockpit intrusions havent ceased since 9/11, and I dont think we've seen the last of hijackings, unfortunatley.

As, regards to the original question, it didnt even cross my mind to put me off airliners. Something that did put me off doing it again was that little trip to Iraq last year......!:ouch:

Wee Weasley Welshman

12th Aug 2006, 08:14

Expansion of the industry will have to rapidly slow down in the UK.

Just think. 10 years ago - might seem like a long time if you're 19 but really its not - Ryanair had 7 aircraft and easyJet had 2. Alone they now have a fleet of 210 jets buzzing in and out of mostly the UK from 6am to 11pm every day bar Christmas. Then add in Globespan, Jet 2 and all the other startups. Recall that the established players have grown, Virgin keep buying aircraft and BA has not shrunk.

Whilst there will be further expansion there is no way all this is going to be replicated over the next decade. There wouldn't be enough space to park the aircraft at night for one thing.

So job hunting in the UK is likely to get harder albeit with many more jobs in existence.

My prediction - tell Flight to hold the front page - is that Continental Europe will see something similar to what has happened in the UK. Italy, Spain, France, Portugal, Scandanavia, all dominated by inefficient inflexible legacy airlines. All with plenty of space, large half empty airports and either a wealthy population or a rapidly becoming so one.

Having a fluency in a second language might indeed become the killer attribute to a Wannabes CV in the coming years. Your first job might well be on a jet in Asturias/Porto/Bergamo/Marseille/Esberj.

Or just as likely in the Warsaw Pact countries. How is your Hungarian?

Interesting times ahead.

Cheers

WWW

BEagle

12th Aug 2006, 09:04

If the 'plastic bag' restriction lasts more than a month, then there most certainly will be a significant loss of revenue to the airlines.

Even yesterday the few people travelling with me in Business Class to Europe were talking about looking at Eurotunnel and Eurostar. Either to travel to a less restrictive European airport, or to drive to our destinations.

When the high speed link from London to the continent is complete, you can expect to see a lot more business travellers using the train.

Some of us actually need things like mobile phones and laptop computers as business tools during our journeys - rather than kids with iPods, business travellers do need to be able to communicate with customers, their offices etc and are not really prepared to their risk valuable and essential items being left to the mercy of baggage crunchers.

If you think that there won't be any impact on airline pilot requirements in the UK following the current security restrictions, think again!

powdermonkey

12th Aug 2006, 10:12

Some of us actually need things like mobile phones and laptop computers as business tools during our journeys - rather than kids with iPods, business travellers do need to be able to communicate with customers, their offices etc and are not really prepared to their risk valuable and essential items being left to the mercy of baggage crunchers.

Baggage handlers are not all that bad, I did a stint for six months and we don't all get up in the morning to destroy pax luggage. It is possible to carry your laptop to the gate and then have it placed in the hold when you board the ac. Buying a suitable hard, foam lined case for the pc, in which mobile phones keys etc can also be placed could be an option. No one is that busy that they must have the laptop with them during the flight. Why not relax and enjoy the trip, and leave work for when you are on the ground. I think it is a great idea to not carry on hand luggage. What is it that you need for the flight? A book, sweets, ipod etc. All will fit easily in a small plastic bag, easy to check by ground ops staff, and that is only really required for long haul. For a short trip within Europe, how much do you really need? It would stop a lot of the messing at check-in, by pax wanting or insisting they must carry on bags that are far too big etc. It would stop all that business of blocking isles, slow boarding etc. Just my opinion. Carry as little as possible on the flight, no problems.

scroggs

12th Aug 2006, 10:26

Do not turn this into a discussion about the current - and hopefully short-lived - security arrangements. There is a perfectly adequate thread for that here (http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=238656) (where BEagle has made an almost identical post to the one above...). There's probably something more emotive in JetBlast!

Please remember the title of this thread, and stick to that discussion.

Scroggs

powdermonkey

12th Aug 2006, 10:37

Indeed Scroggs, I read BEagle's post and forgot the initial post! Apologies

expedite08

12th Aug 2006, 10:50

Most definitly!

Nothing like these events will put me off a career in flying. Its part of the world today and we have to adjust to the situation. As has been said hopefully the restrictions will be lifted soon, and normality to some extent return!

As an aside its good to see the loocos cracking on with it, and Virgin opening check in desks early, not loosing any business ( well done scroggs, someones got some common sense in your airline!) Oh and BA still cancelling flights all over the place and will probably be wondering why they are loosing out in revenue big time in a couple of weeks!

Sorry had to slip that one in there, just seems they have to be 'different' all the time. :ok:

DUB-GREG

13th Aug 2006, 09:24

Good point,

I was actually looking at this. I will be hopefully starting my ATPL in new year. (self funded).

Self funded or sponsored is huge personal responsibility and pressure. Along with that it’s a risk as no job is guaranteed at the end of it!

I shall be watching the situation very closely over the next few months.

In saying that, I love flying, it’s my 1st desire for life and I will stop at nothing to actually do it and get my ATPL. Im 23 next week so, I think I have a few years before im too old to go do it (or so im told)!!!

The recent plots or future ones may only delay the speed I start my training.

I think the security can only get better, until its water tight but in saying that, at what cost?

I hope these recent plots don’t affect the way, future job prospects. If they do, hopefully its only short term!!!!

Happy flying....

PPL152

13th Aug 2006, 09:24

Who knows?

Airlines are already facing the fuel prices problem... incidents like we've seen in the past only make it worse... of course, it will affect aviation, but not on a worldwide scale I guess... the fact that security staff managed to stop it, shows that these people are becoming professionals at their jobs..

9/11 was a much more worrying event than this one for sure though...
Let's be positive...

DUB-GREG

13th Aug 2006, 09:34

Yes, at least it didnt get as bad as 9/11.

The media (which is my current profession) seem to always speculate, making matters worse.

Infact, if one steps back from everything and looks at the bigger picture, i would say that the UK government was made to look quite good.

Funny, its just was the government needed id say. The real american view and attitude: "yeaaa we got them"!

Totally blown out of proprtion!!! (sorry probably a bad choice of word there) ;)

Jinkster

13th Aug 2006, 10:41

Totally blown out of proprtion!!! (sorry probably a bad choice of word there)

No...actually a very good use of words IMHO, nothing like September 11th at all......media hype all the way, absolute joke, notice how there has been no bombs in Iraq, no more bird flu and for some strange reason the war our in the middle east has become much quieter......

Bloody papers and TV!!!! :*

DUB-GREG

13th Aug 2006, 11:07

lol.

Lets wait and see. Jinkster i was laughing at your location under your name. Is it that bad?

LongGoneSilva

13th Aug 2006, 12:45

The airlines certainly do not seem to be too worried about a downturn in business as a result of this week's events.

Was lucky enough to be offered a contract the day after the arrests.

:ok:

Finger Bob

13th Aug 2006, 13:07

The bigger economic picture is more important than the events last week.

An inflationary spiral has resulted in interest rates rising globally. Debt levels have never been higher so the rate rises hurt. The US consumer is starting to feel the pinch with the UK set to follow.

Some expect a depression, not recession, around the start of the next decade.

Business, airline employment, house prices etc ... they all cycle. The trick is to catch them on the upturn. That time has passed for now.

sagaris

13th Aug 2006, 14:19

I can understand the concerns here, but I wouldnt worry.

I was undergoing training when 9/11 kicked off, and that was a huge spanner in the works too, but you'd be amazed at how fast the industry bounced back after something of that scale. BA for example didnt lay a single pilot off... Other companies that did had the vast majority reinstated within a year or so in most cases.

Thank the heavens this plot was foiled, but mostly from a moral/life standpoint rather than economic. Although its cocked up several flights for several days, I cant see it making a even a dent in the industry... Barring a successful plot that is.

Keep the dream alive boys and girls, remaining positive makes all the difference, and if I managed it in turbulent times, believe me, anyone can!

If you want something bad enough...

dartagnan

13th Aug 2006, 17:59

right, I think we have all been lucky. I am too in a pool and still waiting to be called.
I feel better to know this attack did not work out.

Rich525

13th Aug 2006, 21:15

With the current terror scares in air travel at the moment, how will it affect the future of the airline industry? As the terrorist operation didnt succeed I doubt the damage will be as bad as 9/11, however there will be damage. What I am trying to find out, is how much. Just wandering what opinions were out there? The reason I am personally worried is because I hope to become a pilot and go to Oxford Air School but I dont want to spend 60 G's and be in debt with no future job. I remember how terrible it was for new pilots and currently employed pilots alike, and hope it will not commence again. I know many pilots in BA, but know they will be fine due to them being captains and so wont be made redundant (might come in useful in being employed by BA ?:) . . . if there will be any jobs!?)

:ok:

Stratman

15th Aug 2006, 15:34

The airline industry is normally the first to be affected by any changes in the global economy, crude oil prices, or oil fields under threat, terrorism, public confidence in security or general airline safety, The majority of people fly because they have to not because they want to, lets face it who would choose to spend hours sitting in a cramped metal tube if there was a better alternative. It may have a significant effect on holiday travel, people are sick enough of delays in and around airports, it could be argued that for £40 return to Amsterdam stuck in the back of a small airliner with your kness under your chin is acceptable, but I may be getting off the point here, I just have a major dislike of `budget` airlines. When it comes to flying jobs, I would guess that the 25min turnaround boys with their get rich quick mindset will be seriously affected by the enhanced security procedures and that may change their pilot requirements,probabaly do most of their crews a favour if it means some reasonable time to prepare the machine for the next leg, but I digress, As a career choice commercial flying has for the last 30 years been one of the most insecure options for anyone, events like those described do nothing to improve this, we live in uncertain and potentially dangerous times, the costs of training are totally unreasonable, with the current trend of sstr`s adding to this, and there are many qualified pilots who never find a job that has always been the case even in the 70`s and 80`s, make no mistake about it, what you need to suceed in this industry is a considerable amount of being in the right place at the right time ability, it has little to do with flying most people can do that, if you are blessed wth the former then you will be ok, probabaly.

Good Luck to you all.

captainloulou

19th Aug 2006, 12:55

Hi all,

Sorry to post in this sectin of the website as I am no a pilot yet but a wanabee. The reason for me writing in this section is that I would like to speak to people who already are in the aviation industry and have a more in depth view than mine.
My question is about the recent events at airports. Do you guys think that the terrorist threat will affect long term the aviation industry again and create a slow down or airlines will carry on expanding as planned. I would not end up in a situation where I have spent a huge amount of money for my license and not being able to find a job because of a downturn.

Dou you think that both the government and airport operators will invest in new state of the art security systems like the Rapiscan or similar and if so could this be an answer to the actual threat, will this reensure frightened passengers?

Thanks for your answers.

Helipilot1982

19th Aug 2006, 13:12

Tough one to call, I guess only time will really tell us. But if your thinking of not starting flight training because of it (or looking to stop mid-way through) then you will never get there!!!!

The industry goes up and down - take 9/11 - there was a surpluss of pilots after that and now they are short.

Personally im not worried - just be prepared to have to do other work after you qualify to earn money whilst waiting for the job you want and think about other forms of flying (eg flight instruction) to get yourself through any bad periods that may follow (if any).

captainloulou

19th Aug 2006, 13:31

Thanks for your answer Helipilot.
I do agree with you, this industry is made up of up and down and this will never stop me! I just want to have an inside view as what medias are telling and what the truth is is sometimes different. I just do not want to see this industry badly affected by terrorism, I think this is still the safest way of transport. Unfortunately the medias are not making it look safe. I am just hoping that the public will be sensible enough to realise that it is propably more dangerous to drive to work than to board a plane to NY.

Helipilot1982

19th Aug 2006, 14:42

'Probably' No - 'Definatley' Yes but unfortunatley the public dont understand this. The media is a powerful tool !!!!!!!!!!!

Its just a wait and see game.

captainloulou

19th Aug 2006, 14:49

As you rightly said, it is just wait and see.
Let's also see what people are thinking in this thread!
On the other hand, I work with the husband of the PA of the managing director of London City airport so I asked him to ask his wife what she think. She said that it won't stop the growth and that civil aviation has never been that well. She also think that some of the business travellers will transfer to private aviation (jet rental etc...) might be good for people like us to get our first foot in the trade!

phillpot

22nd Aug 2006, 17:33

Sorry bit late in on this one, I think finger bob has the best point the greater economic picture will dictate the future of the airline industry just as it does all industries, all markets rise and fall, I dropped over £40k on a house when the market went against me that hurt loads then the market turned and I made it back.

True Easy jet and Ryanair have grown at an amazing pace but it was because the demand was there if people have money in their pockets they will spend it, people now are used to travelling by air, it will take a fair bit for them to change their habits.

For years the big debate of fuel costs has raged weve hit £5 a gallon have we deserted our cars ?
In 2001 I stopped my training because of 9/11, because of circumstances its taken me till now to get going again if I had continued then I would be sitting pretty in an arline job by now (hopefully) but im not Im facing the same worries as before rightly or wrongly im going to plough ahead.

All said the fact remains that interest rates are rising many people have huge mortgages against over valued houses and credit card borrowing is at an all time high the signs are that we are heading for leaner times, the house reposessions have already started if people dont have the money in their pockets then things could change dramatically.

wheelbarrow

23rd Aug 2006, 10:17

One important aspect to think about in light of recent event is how do you want to be treated in your chosen career?
At the moment, and likely to be for some time to come if not permanently, you will be treated as a terrorist suspect every time you go to work. You will be subject to the interpretations of the latest security edicts by individuals with little idea of the meaning of safety, risk management and common sense.
You will also only ever be seen by the management or shareholders of a company as very expensive hired help who whinge about everything and are never very productive.
The economic factors involved will always be an issue, with fluctuations in the economy causing boom and bust. It will just be a case of how lucky you are in the company that you finally work for whether you will enjoy a smooth and progressive career or the disjointed changes of direction that a great number of us experience.

Vili

1st Sep 2006, 05:52

BULA!!
...if you're wondering that means Hello!..Im a new comer in the aviation industry,doing my CPL theory..I was referred to this site by a friend who told me some of the best pilots come here...so i thought to come and ask u guys what the industry is like out there? I've read mags and heard news but i wanted confirmation from the people who are living the dream!!
So Guys,whats going on?? What r your views on the future of an up and coming airman??.....:confused: :)

Farrell

1st Sep 2006, 20:34

BULA Back kiddo!

Have a long look at the threads on here, especially the "stickie" threads at the top.

Then when you have finished here, go and look at the other threads like "Terms and Endearment" and "Jet Blast"

All of your questions will be answered there.

Two years ago, I was a "Hey Ho Bula" type guy like you. Now, I'm thousands of dollars out of pocket, but still trudging on with my training....good luck.

great expectations

10th Sep 2006, 15:08

Female Wannabe..

No one could have told me when I started out that maybe I wouldn't like it and maybe achieving my dream would ruin my life.

If youre a girly girl with any sort of intellect or creativity - this isnt a great job.

I wish someone had said that to me, so there u go. Think it over. It aint glam it aint interesting and unless youre lucky and get directly at long haul with a great company its really totally ****. :uhoh:

Jimbo-Jet

13th Sep 2006, 16:14

scroggs

14th Sep 2006, 18:45

Jimbo, unfortunately GE has seen fit to delete her reply to your post. However, reading this (http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=120500) thread might give you some insight as to why flying isn't always what you'd hoped it would be.

Unfortunately, it's a fact that you guys have only your own imagination and what you read from experienced pilots to tell you what the job is like. Equally unfortunately, you generally tend to disbelieve us when we tell you it's often not all you've cracked it up to be. Great Expectations is just one of many whose illusions have been shattered by the reality.

Scroggs

-b-lokie

16th Sep 2006, 23:30

I want to open this question up to those pilots who have recently finished their flight training and HAVE got a job with a commercial airline company. Is there, in reality and not just on paper, a shortage of pilots. I ask cuz alot of ppl in this forum, replying to another post from a long time ago, are skeptical of it yet I have read numerous articles in newspaper but also pilots at the local airport.
Also, can someone give me a comparison of two Captains, being in a company for equal lengths of time but offset their time frames by like 10 or 20 yrs with respect to their salaries. Are airline pilots really getting paid significantly less compared to like 10 or so years ago? and by how much?
I'm not interested in becoming a pilot because of the money, although attracted if its not true, but I don't want to go out and spend 100,000 on schooling and make no more than 50,000/yr in 10 yrs. I understand there are dues to pay but is being a pilot really worth it if you have that kind of debt looming over you for 20 yrs like a mortgage.

thanks.

Desert Budgie

17th Sep 2006, 08:27

I wouldnt say there are a shortage of pilots, but a shortage of type specific pilots to fill the airlines needs. My company is like that. They are type specific, you must hold a type rating and so much time before you will be considered for a position.
I was flying with the chief pilot the other day and asked about how many applications they had for jobs. He said 20-30 phonecalls a day will come in, mostly with little or no airline experiance. Although there were still quite a few qualified guys on the books that could probably fill our needs for the next 18 months at least. Its filling the skipper positions that is the problem.
I believe this is similar all over the world. Rumour has it that EasyJet is planning a roadshow in my part of the world to lure some pilots for DEC spots. Im sure they could probably nick some guys for some SFO spots aswell providing the money is good enough!
The 'shortage of pilots' rumour is taken to broadly, for the reason I have stated above. I dont believe it applies to fresh faced 250 hour fATPL pilots. Think about it, how many JAR schools are there in the UK, Europe and rest of the world? LOADS. How many guys are passing their IR everyday? LOADS. How many out of work pilots are there? LOADS. The airlines are not buying aircraft quick enough to cater for all the pilots! If there was a 'shortage' of pilots, EVERYBODY would have a job. The airlines would be paying you to become a pilot. They would be paying for your rating. They would be competing to hire you over the next employer. Are the airlines knocking on your door? Speak to a fresh guy out of training in Australia and they will tell you what they think about the shortage of pilots.
I dont want to sound like a downer, but thats the reality, and you would be very nieve to think otherwise. These days you must REALLY REALLY want this gig. Be willing to go anywhere to get those first jobs, get those hours. I hedged my bets abroad, did some further training last year and got a job in June. Got my fATPL in august 2004 however. 2 years, flying crappy wee multi pistons (best time of my life though :ok: ), a turbine rating and a job with the FCO for a year to fund all the further training is what it took. There are jobs, but youve got to put yourself WAY out there to find them.
Could be an interesting thread if folks from parts of the world other then the UK get involved to see what they think about the 'pilot shortage'.

Cheers

DB :ok:

dboy

17th Sep 2006, 08:37

The problem is not only that you must have type but also the language barrier exists. You have to be able speak english but also, french, swedish, german, spanish etc.

Gives a lot of frustration.

grtz

dimitrispa31

17th Sep 2006, 09:12

I am sorry to tell you that but if you wonder if it is worth being a pilot if you are not making more than 50000 a year,then i would suggest you not to follow this path,all pilots that i know dont care about money at least until they become captains and have families to take care of,so if you are not sure if its worth or not,this means you dont really love this job.For me being a pilot is worth every day of my life,just being able to watch the sunset at FL370 is the best thing for me in the world,take care.

beamer

17th Sep 2006, 09:39

Its not the sunset at 370 its the SUNRISE halfway across the Atlantic with three hours still to go, eyes full of sand, and a positioning bus-ride to home base followed by a long drive to my own bed !

dartagnan

17th Sep 2006, 09:57

when I did the ATPL exams in Gatwick, we were hundred of wanabees!class are fully loaded..., schools have a waiting list with thousand students ready to spend minimum 100'000 euro for the "dream job"

2 years after, I still don't have a job, but many requests from airlines telling me t/r +500h or nothing.:ugh:

I was in an open show recently, and the recruiter was not interested by 300hours guys even with a type rating...they were looking for experimented FO.

scroggs

17th Sep 2006, 10:13

Here we go again...

There is not now, there never has been, and there never will be a shortage of low-hour pilots. There are several times as many wannabes as there are jobs to employ them. If it were not so, companies would not be asking you to pay for type ratings etc. They can do that because they know you guys feel you have to gain an advantage any way you can, and so they exploit you.

There is a shortage, in some countries, of experienced jet pilots. However, in Western Europe the shortage is not yet acute despite easyJet's and Ryanair's voracious appetite for pilots. Hence pilot pay is still in a process of slow decline relative to other professions and the cost of living.

Your understanding of the way salaries work is flawed. While companies have been known to impose a new, lower salary scale for people recruited after a certain date, this is unusual (and would almost certainly be illegal in Europe). What has happened is that all aspects of pilot remuneration have been allowed to wither or steadily reduce over a long period.

In the 1970s and before, a senior long-haul captain would have earned a similar amount to the CEO of a small to medium company. He (there were almost no women pilots then) would have had unlimited, first-class staff travel in which he and his family would have had priority over fare-paying passengers. His incidental allowances may have included school fees and other significant offsets against what was agreed to be an appropriate lifestyle. He would expect to be able to run a large house close to the capital city's airport without the aid of his wife working, and would expect to run a very upmarket car at a time when car-ownership was very much more expensive than it is now. Perhaps most importantly, his lifestyle and the respect accorded him were considerably better than they are now - though, before the mid-1970s, there was no concept of FTLs or many of the other protections that we now enjoy.

In contrast, a long-haul captain can now expect to receive a salary equivalent to a middling small-town accountant, while the midsize company CEO can earn several times what a pilot earns! The benefits have now been cut back so that staff travel (where offered) is now so difficult and unreliable as to be useless, there are no 'lifestyle support' allowances, and respect has been ditched completely. Even the cleaners call him (or her) 'mate'. The car is likely to be a secondhand mainstream model, even though the 'other half' may be bringing a broadly equal salary into the household.

The time when a pilots was seen as some sort of hero, to be looked up to by others, have long gone. Now flying is just another job - and one which often requires lower qualifications than many other professions. The risks of death, once significant, are now rather less than if you locked yourself away at home, and the technical and flying challenges have been largely eliminated, or at least mitigated, by technology. Add to that people becoming jet FOs at 20, and captains at 23, it's no wonder that the observer (and airline accountant) wonders why pilots see themselves as something special!

If aviation continues to expand at its current rate, there will soon be more pilots than train drivers. For the lo-cost companies particularly, that is the level of salary they'll be aiming to offer in a few years' time if they can get away with it. As so many of you are willing to take your first job for little or no money at all (or, in some cases, even to pay to fly) I'd say they have a good chance of succeeding.

Scroggs

PS If you think salaries here are low, check out the commuter airlines in the US here (http://www.willflyforfood.cc/Payscales/PayScales.htm) and in this (http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpost.php?p=2853201&postcount=1) Pprune post. $15,000 pa for a Mesa Air FO. Thats £8,000. Food stamps (a subsidy for families the wrong side of the breadline) are presumably not included - though they would apply.

stansdead

17th Sep 2006, 11:24

Excellent reply Scroggs.

That sums it up just about perfectly.

However, you do have one of the better jobs about... don't you? Or at least every other person seems to want your job !

scroggs

17th Sep 2006, 12:01

I have one of the better jobs in UK civil aviation, certainly. Thanks to a very active BALPA Company Committee, a united pilot workforce, and a relatively enlightened company management, we have possibly the best deal among UK airlines. However, it pales into insignificance compared to a BOAC/BA captain's package of 25-30 years ago.

Scroggs

Desert Budgie

17th Sep 2006, 14:46

I wouldn't be surprised if more new pilots graduate with a UK fATPL in a month than there are jobs available in the UK in a year.

Stratman

17th Sep 2006, 16:56

Scroggs is right on the money, his observations [`on the money` poor choice of phrase] are as ever very accurate on the points he makes. The train driver reference is particularly good as once upon a time in the romantic days of steam an engine-driver was looked on as some kind of demi god by everyone
as the path to the throttle of several hundred tons of express train took in excess of 10 years more in some cases via cleaner, fireman and shunt driver.
Not so now, just like pilots, instead of looking dreamingly up at the cab of a locomotive people now curse and gesture at the unfortunate individual , respect for his job now non existent. The training schools seem to be churning out pilots on a larger scale than in the battle of britian, simple logistics would suggest that many will never fly a commercial aircraft for a living, but then again if it is `a living` that you seek with some civilised hours and a life with relationships and hobbies and possibly a little respect dare I say, then do your research outside of the biased views of the training schools,their brief is purely to get your money. Oh shortage of pilots, about the same as there is a shortfall of pigeons in trafalgar square, or in my garden for that matter.

Craggenmore

18th Sep 2006, 18:34

easyJet need 450 pilots next year.

That should open up a few holes somewhere...

Fancy Navigator

18th Sep 2006, 18:54

The time when a pilots was seen as some sort of hero, to be looked up to by others, have long gone.

It is such a shame, but I think many people still think aviation is fascinating.... Just go to any airport and see how many people are "plane spotting", listening to ATC, etc....See how many people are starting a PPL, are flying on their computer Flight Sim, etc....
How many jobs in the world can boast this?
Nobody will ever watch a teacher or a bus driver do their job!
Aviation makes people dream and fascinates them! It is one of the greatest invention of all times!

:D

dartagnan

18th Sep 2006, 19:35

Nobody will ever watch a teacher or a bus driver do their job!
:D

I do,...

be at home at 6pm, wake up at 7am...be with your kids for lunch, have sat/sunday off.

bus driver? the dream job!!!
and teacher? what a lovely job, be with funy kids, the passion of a real job, be in a team.

Pilot? what a freaking job!!!wake up at 4 am, lousy salary, terrorism,...
etc.

BitMoreRightRudder

18th Sep 2006, 21:52

and teacher? what a lovely job, be with funy kids, the passion of a real job, be in a team.

You are taking the p:mad: ss?!?! Aren't you??!

For me this is still a dream job. I admit I haven't been around long enough to know any better but I've been in the RHS over a year now, have experienced plenty of the downsides and I wouldn't swap it for anything.

bjkeates

19th Sep 2006, 01:10

Dartagnan, judging by your pretty ignorant post you've obviously never been a teacher. I can tell you now that working solidly from 8:30am to midnight six days per week plus giving up your own time in holidays, plus having to deal with some atrocious examples of behaviour and lack of respect from children whose parents clearly don't give a damn, is not many people's idea of fun. Why don't you give it a try? You might be surprised.

Pilot? what a freaking job!!!wake up at 4 am, lousy salary, terrorism,...

So why are you still here? I don't think I've seen a single constructive post from you.

PPRuNeUser0215

19th Sep 2006, 01:27

I do,...

be at home at 6pm, wake up at 7am...be with your kids for lunch, have sat/sunday off.

bus driver? the dream job!!!
and teacher? what a lovely job, be with funy kids, the passion of a real job, be in a team.

Pilot? what a freaking job!!!wake up at 4 am, lousy salary, terrorism,...
etc.

Well in spite of all that, I still enjoy it and I don't care if I have to get up early because every time I get through that cloud layer, at 6 am, I am blessed with the most gratifying view.
I got to work on small pistons, light turbine, heavy jets, medium and now on light ones. What an experience and what a level of excitement I get every time I get to try a new toy. Absolutely fantastic !
The money is fine once you have a bit of experience and you know where to look so apart from being the skipper of a cruise ship/oil tanker, there is nothing else I would like to do.
Guys, it is not easy to become a pilot but if it is what you have always wanted to do, it is the best job there is.

-8AS

20th Sep 2006, 10:10

"Cathy Pacific still looks like a nice little number, decent pay and conditions...PLUS the cabin crew bow to the pilots as they board the aircraft so im reliably told...Now thats what i call respect. ;)"

Cathay now have a 'C' scale!! People thought it was bad when the 'A' scale was dropped for a 'B'! There are also long haul operators who employ Second Officers (crusie pilots) who earn less than senior cabin crew!

As for pilot shortages, FR has its full quota of Cadets for next summer so recruitment is off until next year and Direct entry positions are now getting very scarce as people are being promoted from within. Now bear in mind that 32 aircraft are arriving over the winter and 28 next winter. Thats a lot of drivers but the numbers are being met. Also, only around 50-60% of applicants pass the Sim check! That is a lot of people being interviewed, thus there are a lot of peolpe out there with the minimum requirements!

However, I would say that world wide a shortage of experienced pilots is developing - especially a shortage of Captains. Lots of jobs to be had in Asia and India but Western Europe is where most people want to work thus the supply of pilots in the Western market is meeting demand at present. We will know when a European Pilot shortage exists when BA and Virgin park wide bodies due no crews!

EGBKFLYER

20th Sep 2006, 10:43

What has happened is that all aspects of pilot remuneration have been allowed to wither or steadily reduce over a long period.

...which is no different to any other sector of employment which undergoes change, expansion, contraction etc etc.

I don't work in aviation full-time (yet!) but in manufacturing. My starting package for my last position was one grade lower and without many of the benefits enjoyed by my colleague, who did an identical job. Why? He'd been there 20 years and I'd been there 20mins. The company can no longer pay for all these enormous benefits and still expect to make a profit. That's no accountants' excuse either - the figures back it up...

Am I disappointed? A little - I'd like to have a company car and a bigger bonus of course but then I have enough to live on (plus a bit extra) and my job is secure for now, so that's good enough.

I would campaign against unfairly low reward (e.g. £8000 for an FO!) but wishing for the 'golden era' of deference and super-salaries to return is pointless. I don't think it exists in any profession anymore - aviation is no different.

Jinkster

20th Sep 2006, 10:55

Adj

20th Sep 2006, 16:04

hi
as previosuly stated the likes of easyjet need 450 pilots this coming year which is a hell of an amount....a friend of mine has just got through his type rating with them and can't fly as they don't have enough training captains in the fleet as yet!!!
also there are about 2000 qualified pilots in the UK not flying...for many reasons and many backgrounds hence why a lot of companys will still be inundated with applications!
the stats in china and the far easy quote that due to the rapid expansion they require 8000 pilots by the year 2010 and will accept both JAA and FAA licenses (though prefer JAA) but lack the lucrative salaries of the middle east and europe t present.....the people who are likely to move will be experienced pilots and captains......most airlines promote from within so an FO going to SFO and SFO to captain creates availability for a new FO to be employed!
not only this but currently as we speak there are 2 BRAND NEW A319 for easyjet sitting in the hangars unable to fly as they can;t crew them!
pilot shortage....maybe not right now but i would certainly say the future demand is going to be high - my friend got the choice in his GECAT interview to pick between flying easyjet or for BMI - how often does that happen?? for me aand most people any would do!
thanks
adj

scroggs

21st Sep 2006, 10:40

Cathay now have a 'C' scale!! People thought it was bad when the 'A' scale was dropped for a 'B'! There are also long haul operators who employ Second Officers (crusie pilots) who earn less than senior cabin crew!

Cathay have had the C scale for some years.

BA FOs (not SFOs) earn less than senior CSDs. That has been the case for quite some time.

Scroggs

wingbar

21st Sep 2006, 10:51

Something drastically wrong then if the professional at the front, the FO, who ultimately collectively takes the bullet when it goes foul,gets less than the guy running the Tea and Cake party in the back???

What an great idea that was,must do wonders for Moral at BA?

"I'm an F/o flying a multimillion pound aircraft, but I get paid less than the guy who's real day to day, if were honest here, is serving the dinner and putting up with the abuse from the bus users (PAX)"

You know, I'm glad I retired today,

WB

Piltdown Man

21st Sep 2006, 13:38

The reason senior cabin crew are paid more than F/O's is because they are not so stupid as to work for nothing nor buy their own type ratings. As soon as nobody pays (and we bother the politicians to to stop the "cheap foreign imports" - ie. non-EU "pilots of convenience") for a type rating the sooner we start improving our T's and C's. Yes the punters will pay more, but I recon another fiver a sector each to pay us properly is reasonable. The flights will still be cheap but Mr Brown and his merry bunch of thieves will still walk away with more than we will and they haven't done a damn thing to earn it.

potkettleblack

21st Sep 2006, 13:59

Err the reason why the senior CSD's at BA were/are earning over £100k pa was due to a number of factors but I can't see working for free as one I am afraid. Try a more proactive union negotiating better pay scales, the fact that some of them have decided to stay on forever and not leave the companies employment therefore getting incremental increases year on year, a severe shortage of senior CSD's on certain longhaul fleets in the past few years which meant BA had to go cap in hand offering huge incentives for them to fly additional sectors (thousands extra per month). All this has been done to death over the years on pprune if you do a search. Good on them though. If you were in their shoes you would be doing exactly the same thing and not leaving in a hurry. But hey lets not let the truth get in the way of a good conspiracy theory. :)

low n' slow

21st Sep 2006, 18:37

There is a pilot shortage. However the definition of pilot is a quite wide one and to me it seems there's a huge gap between what is required and what can be offered in terms of new pilots. At the moment in my company, there is a huge shortage of captains, type rated and experienced on type. This however, does not make any lowtimers feel better.

As has been said previously, the language is also a big barrier. Finland for example has a booming aviation industry at the moment. However, none of the Finnish carriers will accept non Finnish spoken applicants. It's a real shame because the amount of jobs on offer over here is amazing (compared to my homecountry, Sweden). If operators would accept the fact that English is the language to be used aviation, we could all use the benefits that came with JAR FCL and the EU/EASA or whatever it's called this month...

Regards/ LnS

MVE

22nd Sep 2006, 08:00

There is a pilot shortage! A shortage of experienced and mature professionals unwilling to accept poor conditions, pay and treatement from management who are only interested in and will only ever be interested in maximising profit. Until the wannabe stops paying to work, there will be no change. It's plain to see that the reason T's + C's have dropped over the years is that we as a workforce have allowed it to happen.:ugh:

Oh and wingbar, if you have just retired from the industry you will appreciate that neither the bods at the front or the bods at the back get paid for JUST what they do day to day, but for what they are trained to do when the $hit hits the fan! The fact that they have enhanced their T's and C's, rather than let them slide is kudos to them!

scroggs

22nd Sep 2006, 11:26

MVE, you've got the wrong end of Wingbar's stick - he's just retired from being a Wannabe because he can't find a job. That'll be because of the pilot shortage, I imagine! ;)

Scroggs

paco

22nd Sep 2006, 11:41

An interesting thread - for information it's just the same with helicopters, in that there are enough pilots to fill all the vacancies - the trouble is they all have 100 hours and are therefore not wanted by the customers who are demanding more and more skills for the most elementary of jobs.

"a friend of mine has just got through his type rating with them and can't fly as they don't have enough training captains in the fleet as yet!!!"

Monarch were in that situation around 25-odd years ago when pilots were joining but couldn't fly for 6 weeks as the training captains were doing the line flying (for those who can't remember, this was just before Air Europe went down and provided a few pilots to grease the wheels a bit). If I remember rightly, you couldn't get on a course for 4 years at any of the authorised schools, and if you had a letter saying you were on a course, you effectively had a job. It seems those heady times have come back again.

Phil

Northern Highflyer

5th Oct 2006, 10:16

Mervyn Granshaw from BALPA is quoted in Flight International last week as saying

"...all UK airlines are predicting growth over the coming year. However, the number of new pilots is not keeping up with demand. There is a continuing labour supply issue...."

Reading these boards, and from personal experience, that is not the impression I get. It is often quoted on here that there never has been and never will be a shortage of low houred pilots, so where does MG get his information from ? There are more than enough "new pilots" out there to meet the demand, otherwise we would all have jobs. :ugh:

wingbar

5th Oct 2006, 11:23

In 100% agreement, if it was true that a real shortage existed, why am I writing this from the 10 floor of an office block gazing across the city scape wishing I was flying.............

Shortage of low hours pilots...ha! My bottom will be painted blue the day that happens, and I walk through the terminal on my first day with it so !

WB

RVR800

5th Oct 2006, 11:41

Its a common feature of BALPA to 'talk up' this whole sector - they like to give the impression that pilots are in short supply so they can negotiate higher wages....

Its not based on anything empirical like the numbers of people doing CPL/IRs in the UK

Northern Highflyer

5th Oct 2006, 13:56

The airlines only have to look at the pile of CV's in their in tray to know there is no shortage. However, a quick look thorugh that pile will also tell them that the experienced people are running out which should (rightly) push up T's and C's. It should also get them thinking about just where they are going to get future crews from, and start tapping into the (very large) pool of low hour wannabes, which some, but by no means all, are doing. (CAA requirements and balance of experience levels all noted)

Airlines are expanding, any many comments on here from those on the inside are that most are very short on crews already. Sooner or later someone will surely have to bite the bullet.

ITFC1

5th Oct 2006, 14:14

Well i have 1850 TT, 1100 Turbine and 150 Jet, 1250 multi crew stuff and i'm not getting a look in. I am 34 years old. I don think i am too old.

I seem to be caught between the low hour guys they need and the high hours guys.

Mercenary Pilot

5th Oct 2006, 14:26

ITFC1

5th Oct 2006, 14:44

Not yet to be honest, i fancy trying the Airlines, i was working for in corporate company before i lost my job.

Can you recommend any particular airlines for me? i have looked at Flybe who said i should apply when their recruitment starts again on October 1st, but i dont think they have opened again as of earlier today.

IMC007

5th Oct 2006, 15:48

ITFC1

Try Flybe, I believe they are having a recruitment day on 18th/19th October up In Scotland for the Dash 8 Q400, looking for fast track command, I know it's a turbo prop but they have and are getting E195's

Look on thier web site under vacancies.

Good luck

dartagnan

5th Oct 2006, 16:09

I am like ITFC1, 1800h, light turbine time,500 h light multi piston...people dont'seem interested by me even if I offer to pay for a type rating.

757manipulator

5th Oct 2006, 17:20

dartagnan, IMC007
I can sympathise with you guys, I had similar experience in regards to flying, and I kept finding that the airlines were snapping up these CTC, and the "pay for your rating" numpties.
In the end I was at the stage of throwing my hands in the air, and going off to do a 737 rating..at least I thought it would get me an interview..and then a chance to shine (I hoped!!) Then a chance conversation with a fellow flying club member got me a phone number to the fleet manager at the airline I currently fly at....girding up thy loins, I made the call, as it happened they were recruiting, but sadly all the slots had been filled:uhoh: I suggested that should someone drop out, or if they needed a sim bod at short notice I could be the man for the job.
5 weeks later I had a sim assessment, they looked at my CV and covering letter AFTER I'd completed the exercise.
The rest is history...........don't give up, be resourceful, get the contacts, do the groundwork, it will happen if you stick at it:ok:

By the way my Type rating and training hasn't cost me a penny;)

Mercenary Pilot

5th Oct 2006, 19:15

In the end I was at the stage of throwing my hands in the air, and going off to do a 737 rating..at least I thought it would get me an interview..and then a chance to shine (I hoped!!)

"pay for your rating" numpties

Errr i gotta say, that sounds a little hypocritical 757manipulator :hmm:

757manipulator

5th Oct 2006, 19:21

Errrrrrrrr Merc I beg to differ:hmm:

hypocrite [hip-uh-krit] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation

–noun 1. a person who pretends to have virtues, moral or religious beliefs, principles, etc., that he or she does not actually possess, esp. a person whose actions belie stated beliefs.
2. a person who feigns some desirable or publicly approved attitude, esp. one whose private life, opinions, or statements belie his or her public statements.

Like I said I was at the stage of thinking paying was my only option (mistakenly), had I paid, then yes I'd be a hypocrite.
I didnt pay, so Im not a hypocrite...not even a little bit:=

757manipulator

5th Oct 2006, 20:04

Merc, lets not labour the point here, I know what your getting at, and on the face of it in a different circumstance i.e. a situation I was not involved in... I would probably make a similar assumption, however I was involved here...and I'm not embelishing the facts.
I made the SSTR comment because that was how "desperate" I felt, and I was considering all the options with all the potential outcomes.
The fact is, I decided not to pay for a rating for a couple of simple reasons.
1. IMHO it is exploitative and would have added to my debt burden
2. I already had a reasonably well paid flying job, so my desire to further myself could be advanced by my experience and ability, rather than have my employabilty based on an ability to accumulate debt.

So as I've said, I'm not a hypocrite...I'm probably as far from it as anyone could be regarding SSTR's:ok:

As for the lucky break, well we all need to be in right place at the right time.

finally, I stand by the numpty comment......I feel I'm entitled to that opinion

french frog

5th Oct 2006, 20:10

If it was really true "a shortage of pilot"
why there are so much employed pilot?

May be the pilot is a kind of person
too lazy to accept a pilot job, it could be
a raison of this shortage !!!
(i am jocking of course)

A+

busz

6th Oct 2006, 07:00

Im one of those CTC "numpties"! I was extremely fortunate to find myself in the RHS of a 757 with 220 hrs under my belt. I dont think i would have been able to say that had i not gone down the CTC route. Therefore, from my point of view, CTC were a God send.

Anyways, in my airline, in spite of a massive recruitment program over the summer months, we seem to be short of crews again. Many captains i have spoken to do indeed talk of a shortage of quality candidates to recruit for the airline. I guess my employer must be fairly happy with the abilities of myself and my CTC colleagues because they are sourcing more low hour guys from CTC for next summer.:}

Busz

haughtney1

6th Oct 2006, 07:45

Nice one Busz, I bet your thoroughly enjoying the 757!:ok:

Out of interest, I wonder how long it has taken you out of line training to feel confident that you are contributing as an effective crew member?

CTC is certainly a successful business model, and it has helped many guys in your position achieve their dreams.

I guess my employer must be fairly happy with the abilities of myself and my CTC colleagues because they are sourcing more low hour guys from CTC for next summer

This is good news! however its worth noting that one of the key attractions of CTC candidates is that it doesn't cost the airline as much to get guys like you up to speed, essentially you fit the low cost/high benefit ratio business model:ok:

Well done one again, its good to hear more positive news:ok:

busz

7th Oct 2006, 11:08

Out of interest, I wonder how long it has taken you out of line training to feel confident that you are contributing as an effective crew member?
:
From day one, CTC train you to be an airline pilot. The approach is very different from most training organisations where u r trained to be a PPLer first of all, then a CPLer etc etc.

We have always been taught, even when we were training on the mighty Katana, to take an airline operations view to flying the aircraft. Therefore the transition into flying the 75 as a part of a crew was something of a non event. I really did feel extremely well prepared for the environment in which im now working.

Busz;)

sidtheesexist

8th Oct 2006, 20:39

busz - I'm sure you are a very competent pilot - hence the contentedness of your employer with your 'abilities'.

BUT, are you honestly suggesting that your employer's willingness to source more recruits from CTC is not in SOME part due to the financial benefits that such an arrangement brings to your employer?????????????????????????? :confused:

Finals19

8th Oct 2006, 23:53

Interesting debate - especially regarding the glut of "low hour" fATPL's that are on the market and not getting any bites. Ironicly, it seems like a fine line between what is deemed as "experienced" (ITFC1 quotes a good example) and what is not. Obviously 250hrs is not, but where does one draw the line?

I know of a friend of a friend who came over from Canada (where I am currently flying) with some 2000hrs+ consisting of Metro turbine time and Navajo twin time and he also found that many airlines were considering him too experienced for RHS FO positions. Its all a matter of perception I suppose, because that time here is certainly not in the "experienced" category (Try 3000+ hours)

I myself read this thread with great interest - currently sitting at around 1100 hours, a fair chunk on light twins (Navajo Chieftain) and am considering rolling the dice and coming back to the UK to convert my Canadian commercial licences. That said, I wouldn't be up and flying until early 2008 so who knows? I certainly don't want to have to start doing my own TR's (something that has been happening here for a bit, and is definitely not a good thing) when the conversion on its own is going to cost me £10K ++ :eek:

wingbar

9th Oct 2006, 08:50

"Its all about the money, it's all about the dum dum da dum dum" so a song went I heard today driving to work....How true in this life eh what?

Yes very!

Airline recruitment is to do with how cheap the candidate is these days....

Nothing to do with abilities, the recent recruitment events have shown that.

Now, I'm not saying that the calibre of people going to CTC is low, far from it, but it does make one think that its a rather cheap option for the airline concerned.

I am very poor man, so cannot go to CTC, my moneys been spent and now I work in an office block locked up all day long....I will not be able to recover my debt for the next 15 years. No lending establishment will touch me with a barge pole for a TR, and I am frightened of instructing again...its too cut throat.

- Funny thing happened this morning though, I met one of my ex students on the Tram to work, he was really delighted to see me, and thanked me for all I taught him....- what a rewarding way to start the day...I really miss flying big style...

I wonder, when I will go back, and when will that be....

Jinkster

9th Oct 2006, 09:00

[QUOTE=wingbar;2897621]"Its all about the money, it's all about the dum dum da dum dum" so a song went I heard today driving to work....How true in this life eh what?[QUOTE]

Sounds like the 80's band Talk Talk to me :ok:

Superpilot

9th Oct 2006, 14:00

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eclipse_500

busz

9th Oct 2006, 16:06

BUT, are you honestly suggesting that your employer's willingness to source more recruits from CTC is not in SOME part due to the financial benefits that such an arrangement brings to your employer?????????????????????????? :confused:

Im a realist. Of course the reason my airline are getting pilots from CTC is because we are cheap to employ. If that wasnt the case then CTC wouldnt have a market. However, the fact that more pilots are being obtained from this training organisation means that myself and my low houred colleagues are at the very least meeting the required standard. Therefore im a happy guy!

:O

potkettleblack

9th Oct 2006, 16:53

It never ceases to amaze me how bitter people come across on these boards when they get a good news story. I am sure that Busz would have loved to have been a C152 instructor clocking up 1500 of those hallowed single piston engine hours before jumping into the RHS of a TP or heaven forbid a big bad jet. But alas nope, he passed countless tests, fit a certain profile sought by his employers. Rather than burning holes in the sky at 1500ft navigating with a chart covered in fan lines and trying to find the ocassional tv mast in the drizzle he spent his time more valuably in a level D sim getting himself up to speed with flying profiles just like he does on the line today. Some of you guys need to see the wood for the trees and appreciate that aviation has moved. The looming MPL should be evidence enough for you. Well done Busz!

sidtheesexist

9th Oct 2006, 22:35

It rarely fails to surprise me how dismissive some posters can be of other people's points of view and/or alternative routes to the sought after jet RHS! :E

busz - I'm sure you are very happy - well done on getting where you want to be. You've acknowledged the point I was trying to make in a good-natured way - enough said! :ok:

scroggs

10th Oct 2006, 07:32

Now, I'm not saying that the calibre of people going to CTC is low, far from it, but it does make one think that its a rather cheap option for the airline concerned.

I would far rather employ a CTC graduate with 200 hours to fly my jets than a 1500-hour self-selected, self-sponsored SEP pilot who has never undergone any form of qualitative selection procedure, has been under any time pressure or constraints throughout his training, and whose flying has never been under observation by people who have a financial interest in his competence. And a lot of airlines would agree with me.

Scroggs

Crosswind Limits

10th Oct 2006, 08:07

Scroggs is right the old self-improver route to the airlines is now almost dead and I can't see it being resurrected! It's a shame as I have seen good pilots come via this route as well as the 200 hour cadets.

scroggs

10th Oct 2006, 08:35

Years ago, the self-improver route was pretty much the only way unless you went through the BOAC/BA training schemes. In those days (up to the 1980s), companies took responsibility for all training, and the costs involved in bringing a pilot up to the required standards were relatively insignificant. There was no real problem getting rid of those not up to scratch, either...

Time has moved on. Costs, which are now enormous, are the overriding factor, followed closely by minimisation of risk. The old informal system of selection by the 'old boy network' (which did a pretty good job of weeding out the no-hopers) has long gone, and has been replaced by more formal arrangements. The fact that some pilots still achieve their dream by the traditional routes is an anomaly, though a welcome one for those who make it this way.

The likelihood is that, for airline flying at least, self-selection will be effectively outlawed over the next few years, and you will not be able to get a licence simply because you have enough money and time to keep plugging away until you get the right result! Opportunities will remain for those who take a more roundabout way of getting to the airlines, but the business of getting a professional licence wil be further tightened in order to eliminate those with money but insufficient talent.

Even if no legislation is passed to enforce this scenario, I suspect that, in time, the airlines will make it a de facto standard by refusing to employ people who have not undergone a pre-selected, time constrained course of training. Not necessarily 'integrated', but certainly at least 'structured modular' - or whatever replaces both. The MPL, as referred to in a post above, may well be part of that replacement.

Scroggs

High Wing Drifter

10th Oct 2006, 08:46

Scroggs,

I would far rather employ a CTC graduate with 200 hours to fly my jets than a 1500-hour self-selected, self-sponsored SEP pilot who has never undergone any form of qualitative selection procedure, has been under any time pressure or constraints throughout his training, and whose flying has never been under observation by people who have a financial interest in his competence.
But wouldn't a 1500hr SEP pilot be an instructor, does an instructor not operate to strict time constraints, have to make pivotal decisions, not to mention being under constant scrutiny by their employer? Mybe I'm naive :8

How would you regard the GAPAN test in terms of qualative assemessment for self-sponsored modular chaps/chapesses.

Wig Wag

10th Oct 2006, 09:04

My situation represents another angle on all this. A few years ago I took redundancy as a Jet Captain in the UK. Since then I have found other things to do with my life and can manage withour flying. However, I would actually like to fly again. Problem is . . . I have a young family. Any airline job I look at comprehensively trashes my family life. Part time flying would work fine but is simply not available. Also I am mainly heavy jet and am not prepared to bond myself to a small airline for a turboprop type rating.

In a nutshell, the job no longer stacks up. I suspect there are quite a few like me. A good buddy is retiring at fifty. He has scraped enough together to downsize his life and spend more time with family.

If easyJet or similar were to be more flexible in their working practices they could fill a few more seats I am sure. It won't happen and I for one, am going to leave my experience in my flight bag gathering dust on the carpet behind me.

Wee Weasley Welshman

10th Oct 2006, 09:11

The idea that airlines will force the ceasation of self sponsored Modular training depends on your definition of 'airline' to an extent.

It may well be the case that the large household brand airlines will only take people from Integrated courses, their own heavily bonded sponsorships or a CTC administered placement scheme.

However there are dozens of smaller operators out there who will continue to hire self sponsored Modular trained pilots. I'd be politely presenting myself at the door of perhaps Aer Arran, Eastern or Loganair. Or Southwest or Aurigny or a night freight operator. Air taxi work is doing well at the moment. 185hrs and a spanking training report from 'LargeFTO Ltd' still cuts little ice with a lot of these sorts of companies which lack HR departments implementing a recruitment strategy approved at board level.

In little time with such a job you'll have an unfrozen ATPL and maybe 2000 hrs of commercial experience and suddenly the worlds your lobster.

Good luck,

WWW

Heatseeker

10th Oct 2006, 09:28

Small Cymru person

Off topic I know but havn't come across you in an ethnic minority persons age - good to see you still around.

H :ok:

Crosswind Limits

10th Oct 2006, 10:46

Wannabes would do well to listen to WWW as he has pretty much hit the nail on the head! I remember when I started browsing these forums in summer 1999 he was dispensing advice even then and most of it made a lot of sense!

Cheers.

Death made simple

10th Oct 2006, 10:48

From what I've seen in my time there is a pilot shortage. There are plenty of guys who can quote AIP, CAO's and the like, but can't or refuse to fly if it is a bit windy, or there is rain forcast!!
Victums of the sausage factories that Uni's run these days :}
What happend to stick and rudder???
Booya

Wee Weasley Welshman

10th Oct 2006, 11:23

Oh I'm still here. Older, no wiser and just as cynical. ;)

WWW

scroggs

10th Oct 2006, 11:25

Scroggs,

But wouldn't a 1500hr SEP pilot be an instructor, does an instructor not operate to strict time constraints, have to make pivotal decisions, not to mention being under constant scrutiny by their employer? Mybe I'm naive :8

How would you regard the GAPAN test in terms of qualative assemessment for self-sponsored modular chaps/chapesses.

In some schools, a low-houred FI may work under conscientious supervision with proper skills development and a constant eye on improving that individual as a pilot. In most smaller schools, the average FI is left to his own devices and it's a matter of luck whether he is any good, or whether he improves - or not. Time constraints in the sense of getting a certain amount of instruction done in a limited time is not what I am on about. What I mean is that a student must learn - and demonstrate that learning - within a limited period, with tight constraints on the opportunities for consolidation. If you get a job with one of the big schools, you will be brought on under such a regime. At Little Snoring-in-the-Mist Flying Club, you won't - and I suspect you are unlikely to be offered a job by one of the major airlines as a result.

The GAPAN aptitude testing is an excellent method of obtaining an objective opinion on one's aptitude, and should be undertaken by every wannabe who is not going through a mentored, pre-assessed course. However, having experienced a day with them as a guest assessor, I would take some of their post-interview advice with a large pinch of salt. If what I saw is anything to go by (and one day is a woefully short time in which to judge), they seem to have a preponderance of retired legacy airline captains who display a limited knowledge of the modern flying training business and the available opportunities for new pilots. I frequently found myself listening to advice being given that was factually incorrect, and which had a definite bias toward persuading people to aim for BA. In my not-so-humble opinion (;)) there is better, and more accurate, advice available here...

Scroggs

Wee Weasley Welshman

10th Oct 2006, 13:01

In most schools a low houred FI will be left to dangle in the wind and get on with it and as long as he doesn't (or his student doesn't) crash then that will be the total sum of his annual evaluation. They may or may not go on to work for a large FTO and come under the auspices of a rigorous Standards Department.

But if they don't then there are plenty of jobs out there, in Blackpool, Southend, Aberdeen, Plymouth, Prestwick, Farnborough, Bournemouth or Norwich or indeed Little Piddlington In The Mist. Jobs which the bulk of Integrated students wouldn't even know how to apply for. You won't be on a Boeing or and Airbus or a Jet. But as your Modular training only cost you £48,000 you can afford a few years on £16,000 as a co-pilot in a small commercial outfit rather than a £26,000 co-pilot with a £78,000 debt flying a jet for a household name airline.

You might not get into the RAF.

You might not get into an airline sponsorship.

You might not get into a CTC type scheme.

But like me you might still self sponsor your way through the Modular route and become a debt free Captain on a modern jet before you are 30. It can be done.

Good luck,

WWW

mustflywillfly

10th Oct 2006, 14:10

Dear All,

I have read with some interest the discussion between modular and integrated, selected v's self funded and non selected.

Anyway I would like to throw a spanner in the works.....How about a self sponsored who has passed a very rigorous pilot selection procedure!

How would an airline (big or small) view an ex-military Officer in his mid 30's who was selected as a Pilot in the armed forces(and therefore passed all aptitude tests and an arguably harder selection process then someone for an integrated course) passed all elements of fixed wing training (Grading and JEFTS) but failed rotary training (because helicopters just arn't for some people!) then self sponsored his way to a fATPL??? Not that that person is me of course!!!! Hmmmm

Any airline recruiters or olds or bolds care to comment?

VMT

MFWF:ok:

no sponsor

10th Oct 2006, 14:36

Unfortunately, it doesn't matter.

The bigger, household name airlines, do not care what you did before you qualified. They might spout stuff about being commercially aware, but that's not true either.

There are simple requirements, which are:

- you meet a certain age demographic
- you went to a certain school
- you reached/ or are predicted to reach a certain standard when training
- you reach the required standard at the airlines selection board/interview

If you don't have the above, then you will find contacts being the next best way in. For the others, there is a lottery of sending CVs, visiting, applying etc.

scroggs

10th Oct 2006, 15:18

Cesco The aptitude testing done by the organisations you mention is fine - some use the same or similar procedures as GAPAN. I have no doubt that the objective assessment is just as valid as GAPAN's. The advice you receive, as at GAPAN, will depend on the knowledge and independence of the assessor. I would hope that the advice would be entirely uninfluenced by the organisation's position as an FTO and contractor to certain airlines, but forgive me if I'm slightly sceptical about this!

MFWF, if you are self-sponsored and have not undertaken any selection procedure at the start of your ATPL training, you potentially fall into the trap I described earlier. Your military service may have an influence at some companies, particularly if the chief pilot or head of recruiting is ex-military, but I wouldn't put too much weight on that.

As WWW says, the market for the self-sponsored non-selected pilot is still healthy, though the route you may have to take may not involve 737s at 200 hours! Flight instruction is a worthy and worthwhile way of gaining hours and experience, but choose your employer carefully. I have serious doubts that the 'self-improver' route will continue in anything like its present proportion of wannabes in the medium term, but remember I am just speculating. Nothing has changed as yet.

Scroggs

Craggenmore

10th Oct 2006, 15:46

I am very poor man, so cannot go to CTC,
wingbar, as I think that you are an existing license holder, you get your money back and more!

redsnail

10th Oct 2006, 16:07

I would never give up on the non integrated route. After all, CTC isn't integrated. :D

Any way, they are in a slightly different category.

Modular won't go away. Many operators are looking for pilots that haven't been through a factory. The most interesting jobs aren't usually advertised, you do have to seek them out. Use a bit of initiative and find them.

Always remember that airlines have a quota set by the UK CAA of low houred pilots to experienced pilots. Therefore, if airline X takes most of it's low houred guys from eg CTC etc, then by all means have a go but look at that airline once you have some experience.

How you get that experience and what that experience consists of is up to you. Instruct, drop parachutists, night freight, Africa, charter work. None of this will fall into your lap. You'll have to chase it down.

Good luck.

Lucifer

10th Oct 2006, 21:04

but it does make one think that its a rather cheap option for the airline concerned
Exactly - as financially it is not on their books, and candidates have been selected, hence being far, far less likely to fail the TR and line training.

sidtheesexist

10th Oct 2006, 22:12

'....And a lot of airlines would agree with me.'

And I would suggest, respectfully, that many would not!

Strange to think that old-fashioned handling skills are still valued by some operators and I would venture to suggest that for most of us mere 'mortals', said skills develop through repeated practice - i.e. after more than c200 hrs.

'Qualitative selection procedure' - does not the passing of PPL/CPL/MEIR flight tests plus the ATPL writtens not constitute a form of valid selection in itself???????????? And don't forget, the candidate then has to pass the airline's own selection process which as most of us know full well, will expose any flying weaknesses most cruelly.

In a nutshell what I am really saying is this - both routes (integrated and modular) are valid means of obtaining a commercial pilot's job. Our own experiences, finances, prejuidices etc etc might lead us to favour one route or the other but can we HONESTLY say that one is superior to the other? Can anyone? At the end of the day, if you pass selection for your chosen employer that's all that matters - how you obtained the necessary skill levels is quite frankly, immaterial..................

Lucifer

10th Oct 2006, 22:43

And I would suggest, respectfully, that many would not!
In which case, open your eyes, as though there may be many small operators who are happy to take on people under the self-improver regime, the few, large operators who offer the vast majority of jobs available think exactly as scroggs suggests.

The thinking is "training risk, training risk, training risk" - who can cope under high pressure in a time-limited environment, with spare capacity available. They could not care less if you have achieved those skills through repeated practice - they was to know if you have those skills and can pick them up at the drop of a hat - do you hold the innate ability to copy without repeated practice. Flying skills alone are not enough - capacity, intelligence, flexibility, teamwork are all skills not readily apparent from the holding of the licence.

The mere holding of a licence does not demonstrate the manner in which is was achieved - i.e. whether the individual has demonstrated an ability to pick up, build upon, and improve skills in an extremely limited space of time. That is the sole reason why airline are very concerned about HOW a licence was acquired.

Yes, a sim check does weed people out, however if you know that a certain product from some schools produces what you want, why bother weeding through the remainder of candidates at enormous time and expense for little reward?

Anyway, the MPL will put this debate to bed once and for all, as alluded to below.

sidtheesexist

10th Oct 2006, 23:05

Just re-read my previous post and am struggling to work out what phrases/words might have provoked such an aggressive, patronising and dismissive response as yours, Lucifer.

Lucifer

10th Oct 2006, 23:09

I am placing strong emphasis on my arguments, as I believe it is helpful to demostrate to wannabes the reality of the market, rather than encouraging people to undertake highly expensive training through means that are less likely to yield a job.

Why make life hard for oneself?

I hardly see how emphasising reality is patronising - you either agree or disagree with me - we are all adults.

Deano777

10th Oct 2006, 23:16

Lucifer

Do you honestly believe wannabes will listen to you? really? I can imagine the thought process now, "I want to be a pilot, but I can only afford modular and the self improver route, but a man on a forum suggests not to do it for xxx reasons, and that I should save myself the bother, ok he must be right, I won't bother"
This isn't going to happen is it, you can type until your fingers are stumps but people are going to do it regardless of what is written here, I guess it's what we call life

Finals19

10th Oct 2006, 23:30

I am really split on what to think of this whole debate. Going with the opinion of Scroggs / Lucifer, the essence of the debate is that airlines are taking pilots straight out of integrated training who have developed skills in a "high pressure time limited environment, with extra capacity available" In other words, a pilot with perhaps 250 ish hours, a new TR and JOC etc etc.
This notion is nonetheless very unfamiliar and unaccepted in other regions of the world (such as where I am working now - see location) Apart from squeezing the self improvers into such a corner that they have little to no chance of getting in with the major carriers, out here there is much impetus put on skills proved through actual flight experience. Granted you may have developed your basic skills with a highly reputable school and even have a TR but that still will not cut the grade. In a situation such as my own, my first 750hrs post CPL/ME/IR after qualifying was pretty hellish at times with a huge learning curve - flying middle weight piston twins around western Canada in a commercial op. Believe me, the weak pilots with poor decision skills and the inability to think outside the box are weeded out very quickly.

Just a life saver for those self improvers / instructors working in a small commercial ops...keep at it...:ok:

Lucifer

10th Oct 2006, 23:35

Yes. Why else would people ask questions here?

Not everyone subscribes to the collective lemming-like mentality towards financial ruin. Quite frankly, if a wannabe's judgement is that they will train no matter what, with no consideration of that end market, then I would question their entire judgement as a person.

That does not equate to telling people not to bother - taking stock and only undertaking training when in a financially viable position to obtain the best training available for one's career aspirations, is what I advocate.

Finals19 I don't think the best way of training will ever be definitively answered - this is however the reality of the UK market.

I don't believe I have ever indidated my sex. What makes you assume I am male?!

Orvil

10th Oct 2006, 23:52

Lucifer,
Unfortunately, will be spot on whenthe MPL comes on-line, it will be a big massive change. It's heavily geared towards the national carriers and LCC's. Forget, the rest of the industry. "I mean who pays the bills round here?" - willie walsh et al...

So I predict a lot of the smaller commercial schools going bust and everybody else who can't afford the MPL route through Oxford (they have heavily invested for this - the only school to do so - funny that? ), will go abroad to train (no VAT) .
However, this could have weird affect of producing a further short fall for "real" pilots. The MPL (OAT) pilots will go to BA, etc.. and the "real" pilots will be taken by the small air taxis, regionals, private, fractional ownership operators. Which is great news, as every expert predicting a boom in private jet op's, due to security etc.. (see this weeks Flight).

May I have a Rant? Thanks.
The MPL is a conspiracy by the big operators to de-skill the pilot profession (like any other), therefore, reducing salaries and thus costs. It is an industry with shrinking yields and the only flexibility left is to reduce the "future" pilots wages. this will stop the shrinking and you will still be able to fly around Europe for £25 (Need to get Daily Express passwords, though).

What is BALPA doing? Are they that short sighted and really that busy producing flash videos regarding BA pensions that they cannot see their future membership being robbed of a reasonable income?
But then again "I'm all right jack" mentally of the baby boomers is predictable.

OPEN YOUR EYES!!

O

Alex Whittingham

11th Oct 2006, 07:29

The visceral reaction to the MPL is almost inevitably negative, but when start thinking about it there are some very positive points to it. For instance:

The MPL should allow an FTO to design its own syllabus - ever learnt something totally irrelevant just to answer an exam question?
The MPL should allow the FTO to run its own internal theory tests up to ATPL standard - ever sat a rubbish exam set by a National Authority?
The MPL says if you can meet a standard you pass, if you don't you fail - no matter how many hours you have.
When you consider which has more value, 10 hours of instruction in a B737 sim or 20 hours spent burning solo holes in the Florida sky, most would say the sim.
Its unfortunate that the JAA have prevented European FTOs from taking advantage of the first two above. As a result very few FTOs are pursuing the MPL in Europe although several are setting up MPL operations elsewhere. Alpha Aviation, for instance, is a UK company with MPL approval in the Phillipines. The peculiar structure of the MPL also lends itself most to TRTOs reaching down into the basic flying training world rather than FTOs reaching up. How many FTOs have access to level 3 sims?

It is also almost inevitable that MPL candidates will be selected before they start training, and therefore success rates will be high. It could be run by airlines designating cadet pilots as 'their candidates' right at the start of training or it could be run with cadets not allocated to an airline until the end of phase 3, roughly equivalent to the stage job-hunting starts today, after the IR. If it ever takes off in Europe funding will most likely follow the CTC model, with training fully funded by a loan to be repaid later on.

PS BALPA seem to be completely opposed to it, which to my mind puts them in the dinosaur category.

scroggs

11th Oct 2006, 08:19

The argument here centres on the situation in UK, which is quite different from anywhere else in the world. The airline sector here is very, very large compared to almost any other country, with a huge number of operators all looking to get pilots as cheaply and reliably as possible.

There used to be a well-established pecking order, which saw pilots moving up the 'food chain' as they gained experience, and convention generally required that they had gained considerable amounts of hours and experience outside the cosy world of dispatchers and fully-equipped downroute stations before they graduated to scheduled passenger jet flying. The only exception to this was the BA Cadet scheme, which utilised a training regime similar to the RAF's to bring on baby pilots who were ready to occupy the right seat of an airliner with only a couple of hundred hours.

A few years ago, regulators, FTOs and one or two airlines thought, "Well, if BA can do it, so can we!", and devised a number of other ways to get people into jets at an early (cheaper) stage. This has crystallised into the integrated (or CTC's 'structured modular') system, and has altered the market to the extent that many UK airlines derive almost their entire ab-initio pilot input from one or more of the 'big four' schools. The main reasons are, as alluded to above, cost and risk.

As Redsnail implies, no airline recruits only low-houred people; they need a range of experience, and some (like mine) prefer not to recruit anyone without several years and many thousands of hours flying experience. However, increasingly, airlines are insisting on the training risk having been minimised before they will take on a new pilot - hence the insistence on TRs with some line hours for recruits who have not gone through the airline's own quality-assurance scheme - i.e. their contracted training providor. Even BA, who no longer operate any kind of cadet scheme, will take you on with only a few hundred hours - so long as you have proved to someone else that you can do the job. And that's before they put you through their own selection system.

Sidthesexist no, passing the exams and flight tests does not mean you are suitable airline material. More and more, airlines are taking the attitude that their selection procedures are an insufficiently fine filter to weed out the high-risk candidates, and are insisting that the risk is moved elsewhere. For a low-houred pilot, that usually means they want to see a training history, right the way up to a TR, that demonstrates the ability to learn quickly while under pressure, and sufficient handling and thinking ability to go on to command a jet airliner in as little as two years from being hired. That's a big responsibility - and the major risk is taken by the employer if you screw up.

Yes, of course there are still airlines that take pilots with instructing experience, who went the modular route and took their time about it. We get several success stories from career-changers and the like who are pretty much forced to go this route, and good luck to them. But this is a percentage game, and wannabes who are looking for the most reliable route to airline employment deserve to hear the truth, however unpalateable it is to those of us who would prefer it were otherwise. And that truth now is that the vast majority of low-hour pilots who get airline employment with 300 hours or less in the UK currently do so via integrated or structured modular courses. There are variations on this theme, of course, and there will always (I hope) be alternative routes. I'm not saying that any given route is less valid than any other, but if you're a young wannabe looking for the best chance of getting a right-hand seat in a 737 within 2 years of starting training, this is the way to do it.

Remember, I am commenting on what I observe, not on how I'd like things to be or whether the currently most successful route is the best. You are, of course, free to disagree with me, but I think you'll find the numbers are on my side.

Scroggs

P.S. Incidentally, the MPL is A Good Thing for the airlines and those who wish to work for them. It is not appropriate for those areas of flying far removed from the rather regimented airline world, and will not be used for those areas. I see no need for rabid disagreements about it, it is simply a case of designing the tools to better suit their purpose.

Wee Weasley Welshman

11th Oct 2006, 08:26

I too think MPL could be a useful new system. The sheer tedium and pointlesness in chunks of the ATPL syllabus and CPL flight training would be time and money better spent in decent simulators operating multi crew type SOP's. There are many areas where the current training system is very weak. Air traffic control procedures is one that springs effortlessly to mind. New FO's get put in charge (potentially) of a jet airliner but are expected to pick up their ATC skills and understanding along the way. Often they've never sat in the tower and certainly never spent a few hours in a radar room. And yet it is a core core skill used ever 5 minutes in the air at least.

If you were to be given a blank sheet of paper and told to work out a £60,000 12 month training course to make commercial pilots you certainly wouldn't end up with the current system. MPL is no blank sheet of paper but it could be a major redraft for the better.

Cheers

WWW

parkfell

11th Oct 2006, 16:57

Once the basic stick and rudder skills has been achieved, and the simulator phase has been entered, two essential components of traditional route must be covered.

1. The interphase with ATC, and the bugg**ation factor which occurs whereby they [unintentionally] try to derail the unsuspecting student with necessary [ATC] instructions. One thing to build this into the lesson plan, quite another to have the instructor with the necessary air traffic skills.
One of the best I ever experienced was one Tony Angel who worked in the CAA HS125 sim at Stansted some 25 years ago.

2. The student will become perfectly competent in the "upper air". The issue will be teaching them to land it, which easily translates to the real aircraft.

Resolve these two issues, and it might start to get my vote.

:cool:

Alex Whittingham

11th Oct 2006, 18:18

Parkfell, your first point is one that has been noticed and there's considerable effort going in to building a 'b*ggeration factor' into the sim exercises. The JAA MPL regs require the sim instructors to be TRI/FI qualified so the instructors should be well enough qualified to deliver the exercises although finding enough of them is going to strain the system. On your second question, have you noticed the gulf between the landing techniques taught in GA and the way you land a jet? We teach our student pilots to pay only scant regard to airspeed, drive the aircraft to a position over the runway then keep steadily pulling back until the aircraft mushes into what is essentially a 3 point landing. Try that in a big jet. I even a had an instructor cover up the entire panel in a Seneca once in an attempt to get me NOT to look at the ASI on a visual landing. That'll work.

parkfell

12th Oct 2006, 07:36

It would be nice to think that greater emphasise is being placed on the ATC side. What they really need as part of their TRI course, is a day plugged in, and also a session on the radar simulator to at least give them a taste of vectoring / speed contol etc.

What needs to be taught in the jet sim is a stabilised approach.

Power + attitude = performance ; this still holds go, even if the concept is as old as the hills.

scroggs

12th Oct 2006, 08:35

People, this thread is about Pilot Shortage. If you wish to discuss the MPL in detail, please do it on this (http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=209230&highlight=multi) thread, which was prepared earlier for exactly that purpose. Thankyou.

Scroggs

scroggs

12th Oct 2006, 09:41

On several occasions over the last few months, I have warned that the currently exceptional hiring situation could not continue indefinitely. and that a cyclical downturn in aviation was as inevitable as sunset. It would now appear that one or two companies are beginning to agree with me.

In the longhaul business, there are distinct signs that overcapacity has begun to reappear. The US majors are switching capacity from domestic longhaul to Trans-Atlantic routes; a tactic used several times in the past when their domestic market is weak. Capacity ordered several years ago is now coming on line and is not being filled on many scheduled routes, particularly in economy. The backlog of aircraft orders is huge and growing, yet longhaul traffic growth is slowing markedly. Virgin and BA have both stopped recruiting for the near term.

The domestic and European shorthaul/loco markets are more robust, but there is unlikely to be sufficient growth to absorb the enormous increase in capacity represented by the current aircraft orderbook in the short and medium term. While some orders will probably be deferred, it's likely that there will be quite a few companies that hope to get through at the expense of others. There's little room left for a price war - margins are already very tight for most operators. Aviation fuel costs are not decreasing significantly, despite the reduction in crude oil prices (the current spot-market price of aviation fuel is still above what it was when the current fuel surcharges were imposed by many airlines). OPEC is now rallying to support the oil price remaining around $55 - $60 in the long term, so there is unlikely to be any further relief there. The net result is that some operators are likely to hit something of a financial brick wall in the next 12 to 18 months.

Once this viewpoint begins to be widely held, many more operators will reduce their new manning requirements until things start to look a bit more healthy. No doubt EZ and Ryan will continue to dominate the market, and will probably hasten the demise of some of the weaker carriers, but this will maintain rather than expand the overall market - and numbers of jobs.

While I must emphasise that my analysis suggests a (possibly severe) slowing of growth rather than any contraction, I have a feeling that the good hiring times we've been very lucky to enjoy over the past couple of years are about to be replaced by a more austere outlook for a while.

Scroggs

RITZER82

14th Oct 2006, 09:59

Hi can somebody please offer me some advice, I am having second doubts whether I should persue my career as a commercial airline pilot because of all the rumours that around 15% of pilots who are qualified with a fATPL never actually fly an airctraft with passengers as a career. I am currently working very hard doing all the overtime that god gives me in order to raise the sufficient funds for the course preferably looking into Florida for my training. Although I really want to do this I am thinking to myself even though I will qualify with a fATPL I will not be guaranteed a job because of low hours and therefore need to invest a huge more in order to increase the hours. The other side of my mind is saying that I should do it because the industry is an all time high for pilot recruitment as there are many new airlines around the world that are being launched. Please someone advice me should I persue my dream or should I invest my hard earned money on something else, all assistance will be much appreciated, thankyou in advance.:)

sir.pratt

14th Oct 2006, 10:49

an old quote from someone who knows, modified for this thread:

'i spent 95% of my money on flying and beer. the other 5% i wasted'

scottiedogg

14th Oct 2006, 11:34

The feedback ive had from pilots and instructors alike is the 15% odd of people qualified that will never fly will be due to the fact they are totally unemployable, not because of experience. By this i mean due to low qualifications at school, poor flying experience and zillions of attempts to pass exams and flight tests, poor charisma in an interview and generally terrible flying in a sim check.

Im not perfectly sure how and what makes a qualified pilot totally unemployable, but if you work hard and do everythign by the book you'll be fine.

The pilot market is getting better.

RITZER82

14th Oct 2006, 12:19

Thanks for the response guys I am getting my confidence back once again.

Lucifer

14th Oct 2006, 17:33

You can ensure you are not in that 15% by undertaking independent aptitude tests through GAPAN.

Scottiedog - you are behind the curve - the market was getting better, but recruitment levels are now flat.

Finals19

14th Oct 2006, 17:56

Just to define some parameters here, what in most people's opinion, constitutes a low houred pilot and at what point do you no longer become so? Clearly, there is also a difference between say 500hrs of instructing and 500hrs of Air Taxi on an MEP.

Just thought I would throw that one out there for some feedback?:ok:

High Wing Drifter

14th Oct 2006, 23:02

You can ensure you are not in that 15% by undertaking independent aptitude tests through GAPAN.Be careful there! The GAPAN test just helps ensure that your brain is wired up right to fly aeroplanes, particuarly in instrument conditions. The GAPAN test does not provide any indication that you will be profiled appropriately through psychometric testing or that you are team orientated or any of the myriad of tacit and soft skills that employers probably look for.

Callsign Kilo

31st Oct 2006, 15:41

After keeping an eye on the recent media developments relating to the problems of global warming which have been highlighted by the government and various other entities here in the UK, I can't help but wonder what the new environmental proposals will have on our futures within the aviation industry?

There has been a hell of a lot of hype about slapping a heavy 'green tax' on air travel in order to cut down on the volume of low cost flights and make it less affordable and therefore attractive for people to fly. While I cannot deny that the aviation industry is a contributor to the problems with the environment, I do believe that too many people are finding it an easy target when other pressing issues such as the problems involving energy production & waste, public transport, infrastructure and even recycling seem to get less attention so far (does anyone else think this?)

Is the new laws and taxes which are soon to approach our shores going to bring the growth of commercial air travel to a grinding halt and in turn drop the axe on the fairly buoyant job market?

balboa

22nd Mar 2007, 18:07

Anyone care to speculate on how today's agreement might affect the job market? More or less pilot jobs coming along????

Pilotadler

22nd Mar 2007, 23:59

It will probably cut the profits of British airline companies. British pilot jobs may be cut particularly because the UK is a prime stopover for translatlantic flights. I don't agree with it and I'm an American pilot.

expedite08

23rd Mar 2007, 18:07

Its quite a worrying time all round to be honest. It seems everything is very unpredictable at the moment. No one really knows whats going to happen next.
With the bottom line being that the Government wants to bring anything that has an engine to a halt pretty much by taxing to the point of destruction, its with trepidation that I continue training. As much as I want the job, you have to be realistic and know when enough is enough. Is it going to be a viable industry to work in ten years time? Will the indstry exist at all? Harsh questions, and some would say ' dont talk nonsense, but I personally think it could happen.
I would put a fair amount on GA being wiped out before ten years, probably more like five. My advice is to enjoy your flying now and make the most of it. You may be part of history to say one day, you once hald a pilots licence!

scroggs

24th Mar 2007, 13:39

Huge rises is fuel prices? You are obviously a youngster! Fuel for road vehicles, even in tax-burdened UK, is at an historical low price in real terms, and the cost of running a motor vehicle is the lowest it's ever been as a proportion of average earnings. Petrol prices would have to more than double to get close to what they were in the mid-1970s in real terms. The same is true of - untaxed - jet fuel.

Air travel, notwithstanding the increased taxes recently applied, is also far, far cheaper than it has ever been. That is the reason why its expansion has been so fast and so far-reaching. The expansion rate currently enjoyed by the industry is unsupportable in the long term even without the environmental concerns; there just isn't room for all the airports and associated infrastructure, and there isn't the profit to make such capital investments worthwhile in the more expensive parts of the world.

Aviation will have to bear its share of whatever measures are agreed upon to limit carbon emissions world-wide; it cannot legitimately claim any exemptions. However, that emphatically does not mean the end of aviation! Technology will provide us with fuels that produce less CO2, both through improved manufacturing techniques, non-oil-based sourcing, and increased efficiency in combustion. Engines will continue to improve in efficiency also (CO2 output is directly proportional to fuel consumption). Industry is not complacent about the challenges we face, but is quietly confident that they can be met.

'Open Skies', which is about as inappropriately named as an agreement can be, will marginally increase the ability for airlines to compete within the European market on trans-Atlantic routes. It provides US carriers with almost unlimited rights of cabotage within the EU boundaries while permitting no such rights to EU carriers within the USA. This will eventually, in my opinion, cause either the collapse or the total renegotiation of the agreement in time. For now, the motivation for both the EU and US negotiators was to get into Heathrow on Atlantic routes, as LHR carries 40% (the most profitable 40%) of all EU-US traffic. That's why Britain, and thus BA and Virgin, were hung out to dry.

In the short to medium term, Open Skies will lead to a fairly large increase in the proportion of LHR flights that are trans-Atlantic. The airport's capacity limits, which it's already at, can't easily be increased without new runways. Therefore extra Atlantic traffic must take slots which already exist - and are the property of airlines already operating from LHR. The LHR market probably won't bear the increases in capacity that will be injected into it, and several operators will catch a cold. Certainly, prices will fall and profits will be affected. On the other hand, there will be nothing to stop BA, Virgin and BMI (or anyone else) operating from Amsterdam, Paris, Rome, Berlin or Madrid and giving the fat, nationalised carriers a lesson in economics!

It'll be quite a battleground, but I don't see it resulting in a reduction of traffic - or jobs! But it might well make aviation even less secure employment than it is now...

Scroggs