Zoom to Cardiff

[MarkD]

I see Zoom are flying to Cardiff in 2005.

I'd know more if their website wasn't geared solely to Internet Explorer. (They offer a Netscape 7.2 download link but elsewhere recommend against using Netscape!)

They really should get Firefox (http://www.getfirefox.com).

I also find their timetable a bit hard to read. Do they offer tickets on their internal sectors when they stop at YHZ etc.?

[Rosbif]

I expect that they will be everywhere next year, now that Transat has decided to be a tour operator and not an airline. Expect the same with Skyservice in Portugal next year.

[SAW]

Rosbif,

You said Transat has decided to become a tour operator. Are you implying they are shutting down the airline or are they cutting back even further?

[Rosbif]

I'm only guessing (educated guess i hope). But when you lay off more pilots and subcontract a lot of Winter work out, it means that you will not have the capacity for a large Summer operation.

If the airline's existance keeps the other lift suppliers' prices down, it will have served its purpose.

Fewer aircraft and higher profits. They can do the math.

[gumbi]

I don't know where you get your info but we just put our 10th A310 in service and we're looking for an 11th machine for next spring...

as for layoffs, it's the same as every year for the last 3 or 4...

[Rosbif]

How many recalls then ?
Exactly 0

"Looking for" does not put planes on the ramp.

[WJman]

Believe it or not Transat has aproached some companies about running the airline division.The tour part is the most profitable part of their operation.The airline is expensive and requires a lot of resources. Due to the nature of the packages some aircraft may sit during the week, as we know this is costly. An existing company can use it's aircraft during the week and use them as needed for charters. I personally believe the airline division will be sold or closed over the next few years.
I don't like it as it will mean job loss and a center of ops most likely in Toronto, but for them it will make too much financial sense.

[gumbi]

We've been hearing that one for a long time at AT, if not forever...

One thing to keep in mind is "cost control".
However expensive it is to run an airline, maintaining it means that you control a big part of your costs, because you are not completely relying on other carriers to transport your pax. Obviously, the more mature the airline, the costlier it is to operate, salary wise. So it's up to the workforce in place to evaluate how much they want AT to survive, given all the LCCs popping up everywhere and offering seats on the weekend especially.

Also, if Group Transat is serious about building an image, as they have been doing agressively for the last year, I'm pretty safe in thinking that AT will be around for another little while... ;)

[Rosbif]

First of all, I think that both of you are mostly right.
Unfortunately, the thinking that leads one to say "It's up to the work force to evaluate" is a very slippery slope.

The workforce doesn't get to evaluate anything. If they don't do as they are told, and accept whatever they are offered, their work will be farmed out to non - union, cheaper LCC's, and there is nothing they can do about it. It shouldn't be that way, but c'est la vie.

The operation is at an optimum size as it is. It is big enough to be able to take up the slack if the subcontractors raise their prices and need to be taught a lesson, and small enough to be efficient, especially if it becomes a "one type" (so slightly smaller) operation.

One thing they will not do is expand.

Past performance and seasonal expansion and contraction is not an indication of the future. (Maintenance will not be done "seasonally" anymore) Since TS236. the airline is seen as an expensive liability.

I don't agree that they will be sold, though. The uncertainty would rock the share price (sacred cow) and integrating workforces (for example with Westjet) would be difficult to do.

Just my thoughts, and an interesting discussion.

[WJman]

The trend seems to be that the more work AT farms out the higher the stock price goes. The airline can be the most unstable part of the company, with demand and capacity constantly changing it can be very challenging. If you are able to dictate what you want and what you need it cuts your workload by a lot. Transat would not need to guess at what size aircraft they need, they could just pick from all the diverse sizes and services amongst the Canadian airlines and charter companies.
I believe Eustache recently that they are looking at expanding their relationship with Westjet.
The way I see it, it is a huge burden off them, they sell a package and tell people to show up at this gate on a certain date. They don't need to set up aircraft,crew, maintenance, customs,ground handling, agents at the desk at the destination and departure point,fuel ect..ect... If you look it at it's a real time and money saver or they wouldn't do it.
I know itr sucks for people who work there but I think we are going to see more players in Transat's charters soon, maybe Zoom for long range work, and an expansion with Westjet on the smaller capacity routes. It will be great for the share holders but not very good for employees at the airline division. What else is new.Keep the shareholders happy.

[Rosbif]

All the while, telling people who are working there that they will be expanding (into Asia), that new planes (A350's the last story) will be coming, and that the future is bright.

If you were really planning sceds into Asia, wouldn't you at least practice running a real "sced" operation into Paris or London first.

I don't buy it.

The first thing that will happen is that the A330 drivers will figure it out while they still have options. That might cause some opportunity in the short term for others (displaced Capts., for ex.).
It is already too late for the junior A310 crews.

The other problem is that Emirates and Etihad are also "looking" for A310's for their freighter fleets. The difference is that when they "look" for airplanes, they bring their wallets!

It could have been a great company to work for, but the "bean counters" have taken over, and there is no "vision" anymore.

[gumbi]

When I said that it's up to the employees to evaluate..., what I meant is that many contract negots are coming up in 2005, and in that sense it will be interesting to see how greedy or how informed they have become.

I think Group Transat is taking advantage of the situation, especially on certain markets, i-e UK and southern domestic (Zoom is very agressive in CWL and GLA, and a bunch of LCCs are shuffling the deck here in Can.) but to say that tier carriers will take over AT's entire business is a bit far fetched, re the comments I made above.

You can't simply discard the fact that the Group enjoys the benefits of running its own airline although it may be pricey in the present context (because of all the LCCs, although I was told that our CSM is actually the same if not lower than WJ), and as we've seen before so many times, many startups come and go.

It may be cheaper now for Transat to buy seats on LCCs, but don't forget that eventually, unionization and all, their CSM will also rise and they might lose their advantage.

Also Rosbif, you can't talk sked with AT, as everything we fly is on "charter" basis, even though we fly to CDG and LGW 6-7 times a week this winter, something we didn't do not so long ago. We also fly to MAN, GLA all winter which is kind of new for us.

One thing I can safely say, though, is that our bosses have never lied to us in 17 years, I can hardly see that changing, they've done everything they said they would and that, to me, is reassuring, call me a fool...

[Rosbif]

AT look after their shareholders, and that is a lot more than can ever be said for Air Canada. They have been spectacularly successful as a business where others have failed. Congrats.
But the quote "no employee will lose his job as a result of our association with Westjet" is pushing the truth.

I am sure that a good lawyer could ague the definitions of "employee" and "lose", but as you or I would understand it, _--- well you make your own judgement.

I would never call you a fool, because I know that you are not. !!

I share your view that they will never relinquish control of their lift, but Air Transat does not have to expand to meet that objective, so it will not expand.

I don't think a merger with Westjet is on the cards either, because the happy times there are dependant upon expansion (which AT is helping them with, but is slowing nonetheless). Not so happy times and a merger would not be good for the shareholders, so it will not happen.

My personal opinion (and that is all) is that all of this spin about Asia and expansion, and shiny new planes is just spin, to keep the pilots who might get shafted later, happy in their ignorance.

In particular, the A330 qualified people would be expensive to replace and so must be kept happy. As for the rest. "Dime a Dozen" is the thinking in the big office.

Joyeux Noel a tous.

Rosbif

A little "thread creep" here. -- Sorry !

[WJman]

I'm not as doomsday as Rosbif on this one. I don't think Transat is in Danger of competition from AC, they have there own niche and they serve it well.
I also can say you will never see a merge with AT and Westjet, they have totally diffrent views on running an airline, and Westjet's culture makes mergers almost impossible.
What I do think is AT itself wants to get out of the airline business. The ols saying is true if you have 2 million dollars and you want to be a millionaire, start and airline. Basically you'll loose your shirt.
I think Transat has done very well and still does well but the evolution of the company seems to point to a focus on selling the packages only. Whatever happens someone will be flying, wether it be Transat or another so I think the jobs point is moot, they will be around in one form or another.
Good luck to all