Yes - Airlines Do Need Pilots !

[flyfish]

Thats the title of an article in the latest issue of a UK flying magazine, under its regular section on proffessional training.
The article appears to promote the concept that the airlines are now starting to become concerned about the fewer numbers of people going through self sponsored training.
A couple of quotes,

"The pond in which these airlines are fishing is very small, and this fact is their greatest worry.Quite simply, the airlines used to believe that there were a huge number of people under training - simply not true"

"To set the scene it should be pointed out that there are fewer pilots graduating with a frozen ATPL in 2004 than for many years........
and there are simply not thousands of graduates sitting out there currently umemployed."


As a student coming to the latter stage of basic training (IR to go), this is, if indeed it is is true, very good news for the likes of me.
I have heard recently that more people are getting jobs but a future shortage of CPL/IRs I find difficult to believe.

Are there jobs to be had for us fresh low houred self sonspored bods?

[spitfire747]

airlines are now starting to become concerned about the fewer numbers of people going through self sponsored training

Is it surprising, it takes a very determined and brave person these days to go off and invest 40K of borrowed money into a career where the future is so uncertain.

I am one of those as i have always believed i will achieve the dream one day, i love instructing so much now, looking forward to line flying one day.

goodluck :ok:

[no sponsor]

Doesn't sound right to me. At my Bristol brush up there were 20 people in the class with me on my Mod 2 (all gonnabe airline pilots), and about another 40 on mod 1. This happens every month, so adding all the schools together, there must be at least 100 people finishing their ATPLs each month...

The ease of which people can obtain vast loans to pay their way through training, then it smells a bit like propaganda to me.

[spitfire747]

can't remember the exact numbers.. but in 2003 something like 800 CPLs were issued but only about 100 IRs issued..

not everyone doing the ATPLs wants to become a boeing driver

[Groundloop]

Can't speak for the accuracy but the latest issue of Flight Training News states that 1286 ATPLs were issued in the last 12 months (127 more than the previous year) and 866 CPLs (up 18). (Figures supplied by CAA)

That still seems like a big pool to me.

[conor_mc]

Wouldn't the 1286 ATPL's have to have 1500 hrs TT of which 500 must be multi-crew, and therefore are probably already employed by an airline? So if this figure has gone up by 127, that can be interpreted as a good sign that the job market is growing.

Also, if the majority of the 866 CPL's need to now go and get IR's before getting to the frozen ATPL stage, I'd say the best indicator of how big the current pool is would be the number of MEIR's issued.

[Jinkster]

Hi flyfish,

Hows things all going?

Keep us all posted.

Nearly an instrument monkey here!

[RVR800]

This is all nonsense - I know loads of people who trained years ago and sad to say have never got off the light aircraft rung..

The problem with those flying magazines is they are funded by
OATS and all the other flying schools to the tune of 10s of thousands a year so they have to keep spinning the same yarn..

The CAA are in on it as well - Thats why the statistics on how many IR rated pilots upgrade to the multi crew IR are unavailable on their web site - it would be revenue limiting

The reality is that since the JAR

1/ More time consuming
2/ More difficult
3/ More expensive

AND CRITICALLY ALL THE EUROPEANS INCLUDING EASTERN EUROPE WHO REGARD 15K A YEAR AS A GOOD SALARY CAN APPLY
FOR UK JOBS...

Try telling it to the people at the BALPA jobs conference...

Oh theres a shortage of pop stars as well dont ya know...

Their are 100s of people at the BALPA jobs seminar every year
many give up...

The winners

1/ CAA - More exam revenue .. nice
2/ General public .. lower labour costs.. £1.00 return to Sydney etc
3/ The flying schools more revenue..

The losers

Pilots who subsidise the industry

[scraglad]

Yes-airlines do need pilots,so if we all stand together and NOT pay for type-ratings,we will be all a lot happier!

[High Wing Drifter]

I read that Flyer column each month. It is begining to read like a stuck record sounds. The problem with journalists is that they need to have words to fill a column and this one chooses to bang on about how good the GAPAN tests are and how short the sector will be of trained pilots. His column wouldn't last long if he said there's no point and it takes much more effort to tackle the serious issues of funding, type ratings, presentation, choosing courses, age, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc.

One fundemental problem I have with this guy is he promotes the GAPAN test but does not seem to understand it. It does not, as he suggested, show suitability to be an airline pilot. It provides and indication that you may or may not struggle with flight training, especially the IR. It has nothing to do with personality, attitude or compatibility with the job as a whole. You may sail through GAPAN and your trainining but never pass an interview.

In fact, a quick bit of jiggery-pokery with google and "Peter Moxham of the European Association of Airline Pilots Schools." Not exactly somebody who is going to say "Keep your money in the bank" is he?

[fly-half]

Great reply from RVR800 and I would like to add to some of what they have said.

I would be very careful to believe everything you hear, because I have found that you are often told what you want to hear. I went to Oxford and worked very hard, had the time of my life and got good results. When I started the course in 2002 at the age of 27, (and handed over £53,604) I was told two things:

1. "You're coming into the industry at the right time. The airlines are set to start recruiting again next year when you qualify." Well, how can you say this about such a volatile industry?

2. "You are the perfect age because airlines like people with some work experience behind them". How come then, when I left at the age of 28, I was advised by the careers guy to hide my age in my CV! The only three people off my course who are flying for airlines are all under the age of 23, recommended by Oxford! I was made to feel very old.

We were told many times that there is a large amount of people looking for work representing the quantity but, as Oxford graduates, we will represent the quality and be best placed to find a job. Hmmm. This is just wrong and an example of them telling us what we wanted to hear.

After sitting at home unemployed for nearly 6 months, spending my days sending out CVs and visiting airfields looking for work, I decided to change my tactics. I looked for any work in the airline industry. I wanted something on my CV to show the experience I would be gaining. I was about to start working as a baggage handler when I got a different job working in Ground Operations for an airline. I have thoroughly enjoyed working in Ops and my knowledge of the industry is 100 times what it was before. I have recently been successful in an assessment to fly for them from the New Year - which is brilliant news and I am very happy! Apart from the flying job I have secured, I have gained an amazing amount of knowledge and awareness about the airline and how it works, with insight into operational decisions and crewing problems.

WRT RVR800's point about foreign pilots, I would say the biggest shock to me when I started working in the industry and for my airline was just how many foreign pilots there are working for UK airlines, mostly from Scandanavia. This is a big obstacle to all those newly qualified UK pilots who send their CVs to EZY and others.

I have also been shocked at how regularly crew shortages occur and how a whole flight has to be subbed-out to another airline because a Captain cannot be found for cover. It seems that airlines work with the fewest number of crew possible sometimes but you can hardly blame them for that. There may be worries from airline pilots about pilot shortages because they are the ones having to take up the strain, but it is the accountants of the airline that have the ultimate say on pilot numbers.

I do honestly believe though, that an upturn is on the way it;s got to be!!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Its never a great time to start training. No school gives you a particular job getting advantage over another school.

These two truths I hold to be true.

There are some good times to be looking for a job. 1988 and 1999 spring to mind. However nobody predicted that 18 months in advance so its like horse racing and the stock market really. Luck half the time.

Your story about working in other sectors of aviation to gain experience is one I have heard time and time again over the years. Only recently did I bump into an FO in the crewroom who used to be a rostering officer with a Frzn ATPL...

Companies have to by law advertise all job vacancies internally first.

Cheers

WWW

[FlightDetent]

As a side-note, the eastern european argument does not apply as stated above.

edited for spelling

[scameron77]

Sorry WWW, I thought BA were getting in students from Jerez and Oxford for interviews?

Not really an endorsement in my mind of either school, more so BA being very lazy and going with what they know rather than, God forbid, going into the masses of other perfectly qualified pilots and conducting interviews that involve asking a few more questions.

Is being the BA recruitment manager the easiest job in the world or what? Its like the HR manager at Shell sitting in his office saying, "I'm only interested in Chemical Engineers from Cambridge who have high grades". Plenty of other people out there who attend other establishments with a better reputation and better marks but they don't get a look in.

Needless to say it looks as if the PR/Marketing machine at both these schools is in full swing, just remember all fellow wannabes, where a good slice of you £55-60k goes . . . . straight into the marketing department to produce glossy brochures, all singing all dancing websites and to lobby the airlines.

I'm starting an internship program in the states in early Jan, costing me £30k all in including a salary and my accomodation, I'd rather use the £25-30k I save to fund my own lobbing campaign and improve my CV with extra qualifications.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Yes BA are going to look at recently graduated Integrated students from all the schools who offer that. There is of course no guarantee that any will pass selection. We are talking a few dozen places spread about three very large schools encompassing a good few courses from each school.

Maybe its fair to say that going Integrated therefore at the moment affords you a slightly better chance of going straigt into BA. About a one in one hundred chance.

If you think you'll be ace of the base and that BA will happen to be looking the month you graduate and that you'll pass their selection then go right ahead. Me, I'd probably go Modular and spend the £20k difference on an instructors rating, a 737 type rating, or on joining a small aviation outfit and offering to help pay for the type rating there once they'd seen you up close for 6 months.

Its a bit like playing roulette - do you want to put all your chips on number 7 or all your chips on black?

Me I'd put them all on black.

Cheers

WWW

[Dan Winterland]

And for the long term prognosis, at the international flight safety convention in Shanghai last week, the deputy director of aviation for the People's Republic of China mentioned thet the PRC has 800 western built jets on it's register now, but in 6 years time there will be 1800. This will lead to a shortfall of about 8000 pilots. Local training will not meet this shortfall. Some Asian operators (Hainan Airlines for example) are already recruiting westerners on good packages. This recruitment will only expand and the packages will get better.

This backs up a recent comment in Flight magazine that the main limit to the expansion of Asian carriers will be a pilot shortage. One low cost carrier has been forced to run a cadet scheme.

Even if the European markets do not pick up, there will be a big draw of pilots to Asia. With a bit of luck we will soon see an end to the self funded type ratings that MOL and others have devalued our profession with.

[Regis Potter]

Peter Moxham ?

Not the same Peter Moxham that is often seen at Oxford Aviation Training ?

If not are they in any way related ?

I think we should be told. :ok:

[High Wing Drifter]

Regis,

I'm not suprised. However, it must be difficult to find an 'expert' on Flight Training who is not actually in the training business!

The magazines need to be able to draw on a selection of line training captains for these sort of articles. Those in the business who have an opinion on what they want with no particular interest other than getting good staff inducted.

[Mooney12]

Makes me wonder, with China now coming out of itself, the demand for world oil will skyrocket, as will prices. More cars, more aeroplanes and the Americans wasting huge sums of oil as it already does, is it not only a matter of decades before all the worlds oil is depleated?:hmm:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Interesting thought. The massive start up and expansion of civil aviation in the Middle East and Far East in the late 70's to mid 90's did draw quite a lot of British and American pilots into the expat scene. I had rather thought the process was stagnant or in decline.

The prospect of the same happening with the emergene of India and China is mouth watering.

Though one wonders will those countries adopt more of an in-country training progamme - rather than rely so heavily on expats? Just from a guess culturally I would think they more likley to put into place robust cadet schemes.

Fingers crossed though. It wouldn't take much more than about 1,000 experienced pilots to go expat for there to be a slight shortage in the UK.

That's be nice for us all.

:)

WWW

[GRIFFIN2000]

The biggest problem is probably that people in general think, that just because they have made it through the ATPL-course, they are qualified to a commercial multicrew environment. Pre training aptitude tests and crew cooporation excercises should be MANDATORY before any CPL training in order to make people not wasting their money on something they are not suited to become. Just like any other education, the pilot training business should ensure a certain level of academic and social intelligentia. Why do people have the opinion that a CPL/IR is every mans right?

[Fuel Crossfeed]

Yes airlines are looking for pilots at the moment because this is the time of year they take people on.
End of the summer season, get people in for interviews, assessments, give them a job offer, work out their 3 months notice, then start with new airline ready for the next summer season.
Of these pilots being taken on, how many are without airline experience? At the moment there are jobs for pilots with the right experience, the right number of hours and the right type rating.
Winter time is recruitment time for the airlines.

[flyfish]

Griffin, whilst slightly off topic, I feel I must answer your post.

I understand the point you are making, but the world of flight training doesn't seem to work like that.

No there are no formal pre selection courses for most flight schools, so what should one do. Wait till there are ?

Its not an ideal system by any means that allows a person who may never have what it takes to operate multi crew,
but for most of usself sponsered bods its the only system .

I dont feel that a CPL/IR is every mans right as you put it , but I do have self confidence in my ability and I am working
damm hard at getting the right result.
If one doesn't try then isn't that worse than failing ?

[Biscuit]

GRIFFIN2000,

If someone has made it all the way through the fATPL then they do deserve a job. They deserve a reward for their hard work and determination. Sadly, whether they'll get one is another matter but then hey that's economics and recruitment requirements - same in any industry!

Are you seriously suggesting that failure at some computer game should rule someone out of training to be a pilot? I wonder if you'd failed you might have a different view? Do you not think that after 250 hrs of training inc CPL/IR they've probably learnt a thing or two about flying?

Why do people have the opinion that a CPL/IR is every mans right?

I don't think anyone does... They'd just like to learn how to fly aircraft!

Cheers,

Biscuit

[GRIFFIN2000]

Thanks for the reactions on a topic that I believe hasn`t been discussed in a way it deserves.
The thing I want to high light is that there are many guys around that has a cpl/ir that they accuired at "Fastbuck flight training, Wonderland, Florida". Many of these should probably have saved themselves a lot of money, pride and time if they hadn`t started their training. With this I mean that you can be very good at theory and somewhat good at flying and pass the cpl/ir tests but this does NOT mean that you are suited for a job in an Airline/Commuter (Crew cooperation).
So when the general impression is that "there are a lot of unemployed guys out there", how many of them are really qualified and suitable? A lot of them will never get a job because their personality/cooperation skills will be measured below required when on tests/interviews for the airlines. Why not test this before they start their basic training???!!!!
Have met a lot of strange people whom I reluctantly would sit beside during 13 hours to BKK or when the **** hits the fan.
Why shouldn`t flight training be at the same level as any other education?

I do not by any means wish to start a debate here about EUR vs USA as I am not in favour of any.

I was self sponsored myself and now work for an FTO.

[Jagbag]

Just wait in a few months the good old days are gonna be back!

[AlexL]

I think Griffin has a valid point. I am currently post PPL, aged 34 and seriously thinking about persuing the fATPL goal and subsequent employment.
I have read alot of info in the recent months, much from this illustrious organ ;) . However, having spend the last 12 years in a professional (non aviation) career and knowing the recruitment policy of the company (major multi-national) which I work for, I know that Griffins point of the qualifications not guaranteeing a job are spot on. How many people have got law degrees and yet never get lawyers jobs, how many accountants, engineers, doctors never get jobs - a lot. Just because you've got the skills to complete the course (and in our case, the dosh to pay for it) does not under any circumstances mean that you are 'employable' whatever criterea the prospective employers may decide to apply to that definition.
As for me, well I would rather do this thing with all the risk that it entails, than look back aged 60 and say, "what if?".
Besides I enjoy flying , the flight training may be expensive, but its still stick time in an aircraft, which I would be paying for anyway even if I just stayed PPL and flew for fun (OK it would be somwhat cheaper!)

[scroggs]

If someone has made it all the way through the fATPL then they do deserve a job

No way! A CPL/IR is a trophy - a bit of paper saying you have completed the appropriate examinations to hold a very basic flying qulification. It most certainly does not mean that you deserve, or are adequately qualified for, an airline job - all it means is that you are qualified to apply for some junior airline jobs. 250 hours may feel like a lot to you after 18 months of exhausting and expensive training; to me and my recruiting colleagues it's sod all - not quite three months' line flying.

GRIFFIN has got it a bit upside down also: he seems to be suggesting that you should be psycho-profiled before you're allowed to spend your own money on a speculative qualification. Rubbish! If I want to go and do a medical degree at 48 years old, and I have the money to do so, no-one can stop me. If I want to pay to drive a Formula 1 car, no-one can stop me. But if I applied to be a Doctor or an F1 driver, I would have to run through the assessment process of the appropriate recruiters - and I probably wouldn't get very far.

It is not the job of employers (or anyone else) to tell you what qualifications you should be allowed to take. That's completely up to you. But if you want to work for me, I will require from you very high minimum standards of paper qualifications, experience, and evidence of suitability for the task at hand. Where the job offered is for people new to the profession, I will require you to go through various assessment procedures that will allow me to judge whether you are likely to make a good pilot in my airline - which may have a very different ethos from the airline over the road.

That is not the job of the examination authorities; it is the airlines' job.

Scroggs

[smith]

Cant think of any unemployed docytors at the moment. In fact we are shippin them into this country from all over at the moment.

[BEagle]

Well I have an ATPL. Not a fATPL, a real ATPL. Would I want to fly in a post-9/11 airliner? Yes - absolutely. But only as a passenger..

90 minutes spent locked into a 'broom cupboard with a view' in the company of a stranger 4 times per day? Forget it!

[scroggs]

Ah but, BEags - would we want you!? ;)

You can always tell a VC10 pilot - but you can't tell him much! :E :p

[timzsta]

Most of the airline assesments are complete tosh anyway. I sat the aptitude tests for a well known charter airlines cadet scheme two years ago. I have the letter then sent after - "our tests have shown you lack the technical and mental aptitude to succeed at flight training".

I passed all written exams first time (average just under 90%) and first time IR pass.

I regard my license as a bit more then some trophy. They are what I won as kid for playing cricket and stuff. But getting the CPL/IR was always going to be the easy part. Getting the job is the tough part.

[GRIFFIN2000]

To timzsta.
The charter airline probably thought that you were not going to be able to follow the progression in their program as put in their syllabus. That is why FTO:s, that have pre training tests, screen out applicants to ensure that you will succeed without extra training etc, which put a lot of strain and extra work on the organisation. Why shall an FTO put a lot of effort to get you through when they can find people who wont? Just compare this to the airforce. Same way of thinking there. Of course there will be a few mistakes but after almost 6 years in the training business I know that the aptitude tests work VERY well and that in 99% of the cases the results from these tests match perfect to the performance of the student...

[Jason2000]

You could always try getting a pilot job in China (with CZ)!:

China grapples with pilot shortage
Leithen Francis, Singapore (07Dec04, 05:08 GMT, 450 words)


Rapid growth in China’s airline sector has created a shortage of trained commercial pilots, a problem Chinese authorities are now trying to grapple with.

China will need to recruit 12,000 pilots from now to 2010 but its two certified pilot training schools are only capable of training a total of 850-900 pilots per year, according to figures from Civil Aviation Administration of China’s (CAAC) flight standards department.

“If we operate 1,200 transportation category aircraft by the year 2010 [from] about 700 transportation aircraft by the end of 2004, we will probably need to recruit at least 12,000 commercial pilots from now to the year 2010,” the CAAC department says in an emailed response to a query from ATI.

It says currently the CAAC Flying College in Sichuan province can train 600-700 pilots a year while the China Southern Airlines Flying School in Perth, Australia is capable of training 150-200 per annum.

“Besides these two schools, the airlines in China recruit their pilots by sending cadets for flight license training in foreign countries such as Australia and the USA.

“Number of cadets is quite different each year from 100-200 each year,” it adds.

Some Chinese airlines have also resorted to recruiting pilots from overseas to overcome the problem of pilot shortage, while others have delayed taking delivery of some aircraft.

Shanghai Airlines, for example, has delayed taking its last two Boeing 757-200s on order from Boeing simply because it lacks the pilots to operate the aircraft.

Air China, which has some Airbus A320 family aircraft on order, is currently looking to recruit an unspecified number of A320 pilots from overseas. The CAAC flight standards department says there already are about 30 foreign pilots currently working in China for local carriers such as Shenzhen Airlines.

It says although China currently only has two CAAC certified commercial pilot training schools at least two other schools are planned.

Beijing Pan Am Aviation Academy last month unveiled plans to acquire 60 trainers from Diamond. The CAAC flight standards department says the school, located at Shi Jia Zhuang Airport in Hebei province, should be certified and start flight training operations in the first half of next year.

It also says “Flying Dragon flying school in Harbin …will apply for commercial pilot training”.

While the CAAC flight standards department is working to increase the country’s pilot training capability, the CAAC air safety office recently issued a directive of its own that addresses the problem of pilot shortage.

Its directive states that Chinese airlines wishing to order or lease aircraft after 1 December 2004 must do an evaluation and complete a report to show that the carrier has the pilots and maintenance capability to support the additional aircraft.


Source: Air Transport Intelligence news

[WaNNabeFlyEr]

isnt 99% a lil too much? since when did a test start determining the absolute ability of a pilot...its helps in assesing but it certainly isnt the absolute judgement of a pilots skills :P

[RVR800]

A qualification of any sort does not give you the 'right' to a job.
A fATPL is the minimum qualification needed to do this job

In a market where supply exceeds demand there will be many
disappointed people - its just the market

Medicine is a rare example of a profession where one needs to satisfy stringent pre entry criteria that is not typical of a self selected student doing fATPL training....Its unusual in that its paid for by the NHS in the large part, and leads to a guaranteed well paid job for life.... Its a long training with more than just a few months of exams like the JAA FCL stuff! More like 10 years rather than 10 months!

Theres a shortage of doctors and dentists there is NO shortage of pilots. Partly cos its quick and relatively easy to train a pilot...

One thing that is lacking in all this is a forward view of risk for people contemplating spending 60-100 K

They will be forced because of the freedom of Information Act next year to address this and give us more information...

The FAA do this but they have a poilicy of promoting the flying training sector without abolishing it....unlike th eCAA that keep their student progression data secret ... and thats cos of vested interest!