UK to French regions

[davidjohnson6]

I've been thinking over the last few months about routes between the UK and the smaller French regional airports, particularly to French airports with less than 500,000 passengers per year

It occurred to me that with Cityjet's long term ownership in question and Air France wanting out as soon as possible, as well as Flybe undergoing a significant review of their routemap, we might see a rather sudden reduction in connectivity on these routes during 2014. While Ryanair has the seeming ability to magic passengers out of thin air, their fleet is typically busy during summer and with only limited expected growth in number of airframes, they will likely be quite picky, as well as possibly wanting more marketing support than the local airport is willing to provide.

Anyone have any thoughts as to what the UK - regional France market will look like in summer 2015 ? It's worth pointing out how dependent some of these French airports are for Cityjet and Flybe to bring in UK summer tourists

Angers (5,010 dom - 3,855 int) - British Airways (likely large marketing support involved)
Avignon (7,722 dom - 22,243 int) - Flybe
Bergerac (1,607 dom - 282,786 int) - Ryanair, Flybe, Jet2
Beziers (55,175 dom - 168,606 int) - Flybe, Ryanair
Brest (929,583 dom - 123,086 int) - Cityjet, Flybe, formerly Ryanair
Brive (41,812 dom - 14,371 int) - Cityjet
Carcassonne (2,342 dom - 393,321 int) - Ryanair
Chambery (2,602 dom - 225,425 int) - British Airways, Flybe, Jet2
Clermont-Ferrand (330,250 dom - 45,615 int) - Flybe
Deauville (0 dom - 130,175 int) - Cityjet
Dinard (617 dom - 137,861 int) - Ryanair
Dole (6,433 dom - 27,284 int) - Ryanair
La Rochelle (29,147 dom - 207,275 int) - Easyjet, Flybe, Ryanair
Limoges (57,262 dom - 248,019 int) - Flybe, Ryanair
Lourdes (110,704 dom - 298,578 int) - Ryanair
Nimes (1,266 dom - 183,580 int) - Ryanair
Pau (580,425 dom - 28,746 int) - formerly Cityjet, no longer served
Perpignan (231,460 dom - 118,411 int) - Flybe, Ryanair
Poitiers (22,976 dom - 75,150 int) - Ryanair
Quimper (107,466 dom - 2,606 int) - British Airways (likely large marketing support involved)
Rennes (396,630 dom - 51,983 int) - Flybe
Rodez (64,421 dom - 89,651 int) - Ryanair
Toulon (457,771 dom - 120,935 int) - Ryanair (+ formerly Cityjet)
Tours (26,091 dom - 140,895 int) - Ryanair

Dom = domestic pax in 2012, int = international pax in 2012

Runway lengths - based on distances on wikipedia (yes, I know), all but the following airports are likely 737-800 capable.
Angers - 1,800m
Avignon - 1,880m
Chambery - 2,020m - but challenging terrain

Note - I've ignored the airports where the only UK flights are with Easyjet, Ryanair and BA and whose long term future seems fairly assured

[racedo]

Angers - British Airways (likely large marketing support involved) No idea
Avignon - Flybe - Served by Eurostar and also 4/5 other airports close by
Bergerac - Ryanair, Flybe, Jet2 - will still be around
Beziers - Flybe, Ryanair - will still be around
Brest - Cityjet, Flybe - May struggle
Brive - Cityjet - Struggle
Clermont-Ferrand - Flybe - Struggle
Deauville - Cityjet - Struggle
Dole - Ryanair - limited UK serves Portugese community more
La Rochelle - Easyjet, Flybe, Ryanair - No change
Limoges - Flybe, Ryanair - No change
Lourdes - Ryanair - No change, shrine brings them in
Pau - formerly Cityjet, no longer served
Perpignan - Flybe, Ryanair - No change
Poitiers - Ryanair - No change
Quimper - British Airways (likely large marketing support involved)
Rennes - Flybe - Struggle
Toulon - Ryanair (+ formerly Cityjet) - No change

Believe there will be some losers but would expect Fr to keep their flights and pick up pax from removal of services.

Do love Bezier airport

[sxflyer]

Interesting topic.

In summer 2015 some of those routes, and indeed others not on the list such as Dijon, could well be picked up by the long mooted Stobart Air/Aer Arann operation into Southend especially if any subsidies are involved. Of course what summer 2016 may look like could be a different story.

I think the main issue is the survival of Flybe, who are the sole operator to some of these places and to a lesser extent Cityjet. Big IF, but if they went, I could perhaps see Hop! making a foray to these shores because some of these markets could support a London link and attract high-yielding leisure pax but are too small for EZY/FR and while any random prop operator could operate say Lorient-London or La Rochelle-Bristol in reality subsidy or not without the marketing support of a major backer like AF they would be dead in the water.

[NickBarnes]

Would not ezy/fr take some of them up or are they too much of a niche route for them and their aircraft

[Alsacienne]

FR plan thrice-weekly flights between STN and SXB.

Any chance of including BSL/MUL (a shared airport!) with EZY's routes from there to EDI, MAN and LGW on your lists?

[AirLCY]

I think Ryanair is the airline most likely to be getting support from the routes not BA, it's been well publicised in the past

[davidjohnson6]

Alsacienne - I'm particularly interested in some of the thinner routes between the UK and regional France. Basel has an Easyjet base, handles over 5m passengers per year, and can support up to 9 flights on some days to London - I'd deem UK-Basel to be a thick route with ample support and in no danger whatsoever, much the same as routes to BOD, LYS, MRS, NCE, NTE and TLS

If possible I'd really like to focus discussion in this thread on the routes UK - regional France routes which are thin or at risk

AirLCY - I know that Ryanair are the recipient of plenty of marketing support, but given fares in summer 2013 even shortly before flight date and the load factors, I very much doubt that BA on LCY-Angers and LCY-Quimper are self supporting without funds from a source other than ticket sales.

[anothertyke]

I would put a question mark against Limoges, Rodez as well. I suppose RYR needs some less than four hour rotations to get four a day in so they have to fly somewhere and then where they go depends on the marketing arrangements. But a lot of the time they are eye wateringly cheap compared with the competition--are they really truly making money on this?

At the moment Eurostar/TGV has still not really got its act together in this market except perhaps to Lyon and the Cote d'Azur via Lille and even that doesn't seem to be marketed very well. If they ever offer something better for getting to the provinces than struggling across Paris ---big interchange at charles de Gaulle TGV for example--- that could change this market. International to a lot of these destinations is small relative to domestic, five hours from London is competitive, rail/drive could be better than fly/drive for a fair chunk of this market.

[pax britanica]

Having a house in S W France these topics always intrigue me-I am about equidistant from Poiiters. Bordeaux, Limoges and La Rochelle. FR and FlyBe have done a good job on Limoges which is popular with Brit and French users alike-a decent sized city with no real air links or TGV. Poitiers is a bit smaller but TGV offers real completion to London and the new TGV to Limoges is probably the biggest threat to FR there when finished in a couple of years. ( planned and built in about the same time as HS2 turns its first sod.)

The future of Flybe is definitely of some concern as it is major operator to this part of France and S'ampton is a really convenient airport (which should itself be worried by their problems)
Overall the long term threat comes from the new and upgraded TGV lines and SNCFs increased interest in marketing the interchanges at CDG or Lille to avoid Paris-that could realy make a dent in London originating pax and make the remaining business not that viable
PB

[CelticRambler]

Tours doesn't feature on your list and (apart from the amazing shortsightedness of terminating a brand new tramline 500m from the airport, on the wrong side of a main road) has been slowly building traffic. I suspect Poitiers will be caught in the eye of a perfect storm between Tours, Limoges and La Rochelle, with the TGV offering an easy way out.

"Marketing support" will be in shorter supply in the next couple of years, however, so some of the quieter airports will really struggle.

[Yak97]

Reims Airport

What ever happened to Reims Airport? It used to be a popular charter destination but just seemed to drop off the radar.

[CelticRambler]

A new TGV line put the Reims population within 30-35min of CdG. When the municipalité has gone out of it's way to justify the commercial advantage of a TGV station and high-speed link to a major hub, it can't support a local airfield. This is the fate that awaits Poitiers.

It may not help that the French can't pronounce Reims properly so selling it as a destination is problematic when non-francophones think they're going to end up in (the Pays de la) Rance in Brittany

[davidjohnson6]

Why should Poitiers die, when Tours has been on the TGV network properly for a number of years, is nearer to CDG and also manages to maintain commercial passengers flights at its airport ?
The only argument I can think of, is that the Loire valley and chateaux are more of a honeypot for British tourists

[adfly]

Having said that the UK - Tours market can't be that great. Flybe didn't even make it to the peak season when they flew twice a week from SOU last year on a Dash.

[CelticRambler]

Originally Posted by davidjohnson6

Why should Poitiers die, when Tours has been on the TGV network properly for a number of years, is nearer to CDG and also manages to maintain commercial passengers flights at its airport ?
The only argument I can think of, is that the Loire valley and chateaux are more of a honeypot for British tourists

That, in red: starting from a relative nothing and dealing with a known enemy, airport management can develop a strategy that takes account of established demand.

Also:
- located in one of France's premier tourist zones vs. Futuroscope and little else
- free parking vs. not free in Poitiers
- public transport that (almost) takes you to the airport vs. none
- local population of c.230k vs 120k

Flybe's failure to make a success of Tours probably has more to do with their own strategy that that of they airport, although the daft decisions by the local authority don't help - like not putting up signs to the airport nor having the gumption to lay the last 500m of tramline:


(service terminates at the red flag, track continues to the brick-shaded zone, blue arrow is airport drop-off point, between them: one road, one field. But this is typical of the hyper-compartmentalised thinking of the French in general.

But back to Poitiers: Tours is making a determined effort to expand and offers twice the number of destinations; La Rochelle (similar pop. to Poitiers) is another area with natural attraction and also offers twice the number of destinations; Limoges (also similar pop. to Poitiers) has chosen to aggressively promote it's air links in the absence of a TGV and offers the widest choice of year-round destinations ( ... mostly UK ) of any regional airport within 2-300nm.

Poitiers has ... Stansted (heavily subsidised) and Lyon (PSO, shared with La Rochelle) Worse, the deteriorating French economy and anti-foreigner taxes are encouraging many former UK residents to abandon their primary and secondary homes, with the Poitou-Charente region bearing the brunt of this exodus. Vinci Airports have got some kind of a 7-year deal to make it work, but I can only see it ending up as another Angoulême because the native French are not going to make up the shortfall in UK traffic.

[jabird]

apart from the amazing shortsightedness of terminating a brand new tramline 500m from the airport, on the wrong side of a main road

Or simply that a tram system still has to think in terms of yield, even with subsidies, as does the sole airline that now serves the airport.

Given the conversation above about buying property in locations that depend on 3x weekly FR service, would you invest the millions needed to remodel a busy junction just to take a tram in to meet a handful of weekly flights?

---

Without having references off the top of my head, I'd be interested in going back through that list and knowing how many of these airports were large enough to take a 738, and for those that aren't, have BE done enough to build a niche there?

[davidjohnson6]

jabird - added some runway lengths. Caveat - figures are taken off wikipedia (it's quick, it's late and I'm tired). Looks as if virtually all the airports will take a 737-800

[jabird]

Caveat

Thanks - was just curious. Q400 should be winner for these routes, but 738 still has crew / fuel advantage and most of these seem to be able to get by without needing a daily service.

I'm assuming taxiways, aprons etc can also take a 738 - but if you were management and they couldn't, would you spend more than a few thousand €s to upgrade? I suppose with new nice Ryanair, they might lock in to a deal long enough to recoup the cost?

[CelticRambler]

Originally Posted by jabird

Or simply that a tram system still has to think in terms of yield, even with subsidies, as does the sole airline that now serves the airport.

Given the conversation above about buying property in locations that depend on 3x weekly FR service, would you invest the millions needed to remodel a busy junction just to take a tram in to meet a handful of weekly flights?

Joined-up infrastructure has never been a bad bet - see all comments on the SEN thread or Cardiff or Oxford - and considering the growth in the number of flights and extension of seasonal services, there's good reason to believe that this is one regional airport that will continue to grow. Because of its tourist traffic, Tours is much less sensitive to the changed dynamics in property ownership. Limoges and La Rochelle share these advantages too which is why they are likely to strengthen their positions while Poitiers stagnates and/or fails.

What might change the picture for any/all French regional airports is the increasing willingness of the younger population to consider leaving France and working elsewhere in Europe. The French have never been scared of travelling, but they've been reared to accept long road and rail journeys, especially the rural population, and have very poor awareness of lands beyond their borders (a school trip overseas makes front page news here where I am). But 25% of the late-teens/early-20s age-group now expect to leave France within the next few years. That will generate more to-and-fro traffic provided there is a consistent reliable service available to them. Pricewise, the regional population know how to do their sums and are prepared to pay realistic air fares from local airports because they're saving the cost of a trip to Paris or Lyon.