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Old 3rd Mar 2012, 15:50   #441 (permalink)
 
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[quoteEI-EIDW]They have a summer sale on now, travel between 1 April - 15 June, book by 9 March but some flights after 15 June are reduced as well [/quote]

Yeah, unfortunately (for us), we aren't flying until after june 24th. Would you know, from previous years, is it worth my while holding off a while longer or just biting the bullet now ?
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Old 3rd Mar 2012, 17:43   #442 (permalink)
 
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I would hold off a few more weeks as they always have a summer sale in March. Would think once this offer is over they will have seats reduced after 15 June
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Old 3rd Mar 2012, 19:25   #443 (permalink)
 
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Thanks for that, I'll hang on a while longer so.
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Old 3rd Mar 2012, 22:40   #444 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
I would hold off a few more weeks as they always have a summer sale in March. Would think once this offer is over they will have seats reduced after 15 June
I would seriously not recommend that in regard to US Travel. Quite the opposite of Europe, Aer Lingus flights to the US especially in July and August don't get much cheaper then €300 each-way inc taxes/charges. My cousins in St Louis come to Cork every July, the 4 of them usually pay upwards of $6k for return flights to Dublin via Chicago with Aer Lingus/United.
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Old 6th Mar 2012, 10:04   #445 (permalink)
 
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Feb passengers up 8.8% to 658,000, strikes last feb a factor but there would of being an overall increase in passenger numbers.

Short Haul - 554,000 up 6.9%
Long HAul - 45,000 up 15.4%
EI regional - 59,000 up 22.9%

LF 67.3 up 1%
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 09:41   #446 (permalink)
 
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Rumours in the Irish Times that EI management would prefer trade sale of government shareholding to JetBlue, their current ticketing partner in the US. It also mentions possible agreements with Etihad on ticketing.
Aer Lingus wants US partner to buy State holding - The Irish Times - Mon, Mar 12, 2012

Speculation from this on Morning Ireland on RTE Radio 1 this morning suggested that until FR agree to sell, the possibility of a trade sale is limited, but that MO'L had rolled back from that position. However, the government would then be in a bind, as over 50% of the shares would be for sale, which would badly depress the share price. A bit of a catch 22 - and of course it would potentially open the company up to an effective takeover by a third party.

My own view is that the government should not have held on to the shares at all - but many EI workers of course live in then Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's constiuency, and he hated being the bad guy. Now, the Troika-induced announcement of an effectively enforced sale at some point means the shares will never realise a decent return. Ironic as in the scheme of things the amounts involved are insignificant.

MD
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 10:04   #447 (permalink)
 
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50% of shares between FR, Govt and staff......not ideal spread
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 10:55   #448 (permalink)
 
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Time to say sod it and sell to FR on proviso that he uses SNN / DUB as feeder routes in a LC Transatlantic model.

Given UK govt washes it hands of BMI / IAG then no reason not to.

Unfortunately given the Labour party in Govt there is no chance of it happening.

EU can be kept quiet on basis of referendum coming up as France uses it position to get EU to back off looking at its industries, maybe about time Irish Govt did the same.
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 11:06   #449 (permalink)
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Given that it's been blocked at EU level on competition grounds, it would be foolish to plan to offload the shareholding to Ryanair. It would end up taking longer, even if it's possible and would herald a period of uncertainty that would see the value of the asset decline.

JetBlue or Etihad is a tricky one. JetBlue are more likely to be happy to see Aer Lingus just get on with things, particularly in short-haul and are unlikely to want to invest just to get their hands on Heathrow slots. However, I believe the government are obliged to sell to the highest bidder (once it's OK within EU and US ownership rules, which given the other shareholdings, Etihad should be).
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 13:01   #450 (permalink)
 
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Not surprised by today's report, I've always thought JetBlue was the ideal investor for Aer Lingus. JetBlue acquiring a minority stake in Aer Lingus will allow them to maintain existing relationships with BA, KLM, Aer Arann, and United Airlines, as well as leaving open the possibility for a future commercial tie-up with Etihad. Any attempted takeover would put a question mark over all of these codeshares/joint ventures/partnerships.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MidlandDeltic
My own view is that the government should not have held on to the shares at all - but many EI workers of course live in then Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's constiuency, and he hated being the bad guy. Now, the Troika-induced announcement of an effectively enforced sale at some point means the shares will never realise a decent return. Ironic as in the scheme of things the amounts involved are insignificant.
There was more to it than that. The disaster of eircom's privatisation was still fresh in peoples' memory, so this 25% stake was the government's attempt to reassure the public, who were quite skeptical that an Aer Lingus IPO may go the same way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MidlandDeltic
Speculation from this on Morning Ireland on RTE Radio 1 this morning suggested that until FR agree to sell, the possibility of a trade sale is limited, but that MO'L had rolled back from that position. However, the government would then be in a bind, as over 50% of the shares would be for sale, which would badly depress the share price. A bit of a catch 22 - and of course it would potentially open the company up to an effective takeover by a third party.
That would effect Ryanair as well though, who will want to recover as much of their investment as possible, so I can't see them selling at the same time as the government.
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 15:48   #451 (permalink)
 
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That would effect Ryanair as well though, who will want to recover as much of their investment as possible, so I can't see them selling at the same time as the government.
Ryanair have written down the value of their stake in Aer Lingus to pretty much nothing so a sale at anything above that is profit.
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 17:19   #452 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by racedo
Ryanair have written down the value of their stake in Aer Lingus to pretty much nothing so a sale at anything above that is profit.
They haven't written it down to nothing, its clearly still worth ~€150 million at current share prices, but they have conceded they'll never get their money back. While they won't get offered anything close to what they paid for their stake, they'd be stupid not to try maximise the value from any sale of their 29% stake.
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 17:40   #453 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
They haven't written it down to nothing, its clearly still worth ~€150 million at current share prices, but they have conceded they'll never get their money back. While they won't get offered anything close to what they paid for their stake, they'd be stupid not to try maximise the value from any sale of their 29% stake.
Indeed, but how are they valued on the balance sheet? If Racedo is correct and they have been written down to a nominal value, then any sale would be a net benefit in the accounts as of now. It is the government who need to / are being forced to sell.

Quote:
That would effect Ryanair as well though, who will want to recover as much of their investment as possible, so I can't see them selling at the same time as the government.
FR can make the government's position on this easier by selling or harder by not doing so. Review of DAA fees, maybe?

Quote:
There was more to it than that. The disaster of eircom's privatisation was still fresh in peoples' memory, so this 25% stake was the government's attempt to reassure the public, who were quite skeptical that an Aer Lingus IPO may go the same way.
Eircom flotation was 1999 in very different circumstances; I'm not sure this overly influenced things seven years later. The government did not want a strike to damage the sell off - retaining a stake was the quid pro quo. The prime motivation was parish-pump political.

MD
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 18:00   #454 (permalink)
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I think they can only write it down to fair market value on the balance sheet. Any statement otherwise from O'Leary is likely to be bluster.

Depreciation and profit on assets will end up having impacts on the level of tax paid and putting anything other than fair market value on the balance sheet could be perceived as an attempt to avoid paying tax in a given year.
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 18:04   #455 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
They haven't written it down to nothing, its clearly still worth ~€150 million at current share prices, but they have conceded they'll never get their money back. While they won't get offered anything close to what they paid for their stake, they'd be stupid not to try maximise the value from any sale of their 29% stake.
Incorrect as they have reduced massively the value of the investment in the accounts, they are legally required to do by Stock Exchange rules and show the loss in their reported profit figures.

Once they reduce it then it has little impact until disposed of or the share price falls below the value held in the books in which case they would show a further loss.

Anybody who buys 50% of Aer Lingus will have to buy FR's stake at the same price at a minimum, that is if they wish to sell, legally they do not have to and nothing can force them to.
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 18:10   #456 (permalink)
 
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I think they can only write it down to fair market value on the balance sheet. Any statement otherwise from O'Leary is likely to be bluster.

Depreciation and profit on assets will end up having impacts on the level of tax paid and putting anything other than fair market value on the balance sheet could be perceived as an attempt to avoid paying tax in a given year.
Don't confuse reported profit with taxable profit. The 2 are completely different and its unlikely Ryanair pay any tax on profits because they also get allowances for investing in aircraft much the same as a manufacturing company get for investing in a new factory..........its why the Tax accountant who explained some of it to me gets highly paid.
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Old 12th Mar 2012, 18:19   #457 (permalink)
 
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Gov have said no talks have being heald with JetBlue.

What is being reported on another site that a code share will happen with EY soon and EI may even operate some flights for EY.
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Old 26th Mar 2012, 10:47   #458 (permalink)
 
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Aer Lingus are now allowing passengers to board flights with a new phone app launched recently. Can be used on all routes from Dublin and Shannon as well as Cork-BRU. The other Cork routes will follow.
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Old 26th Mar 2012, 11:16   #459 (permalink)
 
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APP

Wow! Forgot the world didn´t function before mobile phones etc. (just a sad old git really!)
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Old 26th Mar 2012, 12:28   #460 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EI-EIDW
I would hold off a few more weeks as they always have a summer sale in March. Would think once this offer is over they will have seats reduced after 15 June
Thanks for your help, EI-EIDW, i reckon I've saved nearly €300 by hanging on.
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