I think its safe to say that the events in the past 24 hours in Pakistan means your average British holidaymaker will think long and hard about going on holiday to any Muslim country.

Combine that with the Jasmine Revolution and it gives aviation in 2011 another kick in the stomach when 6 months ago is was looking pretty optimistic.

NB Interest rates will go up .25% this month, mate who works for Ernst&Young gave me the inside track.

+1 re O-b-L. Its an ill wind and all that.

Personally I think FP and Co. have been extremely reticent about giving us any firm info for next year, that plus the almost disappearance of the Flt Ops management from public view leads me to think grim thoughts.. (again):{

split-ffmtcc

Your mate obviously has his finger on the pulse!

BBC News - UK interest rates kept on hold at 0.5%

Ha, he assures me next month definitely. He's billed out at £490+VAT an hour too.

Interest rates will stay like this for a good while yet. There is no UK centric inflation.

Spot on NR.

An increase in interest rates will have virtually no effect on inflation. It is nearly all fuelled by construction, food and energy demands of emerging economies. It will, however, lead to around 17,000 UK home reposessions according to the BBC.

I used to work for a 'big 5' accounting firm and was billed out at a similar rate. My manager was on mega bucks and knew less about economics than a GCSE student. A long career in these companies simply means that they passed a few exams and kissed a lot of ass. Somthing I was not willing to do!

EK

Can anyone on the inside give their opinions on why 20 guys/girls would choose to leave TCX and go to BA?

Having spoken to several friends at TCX it sounds like a good place to be. Obviously some guys would leave any airline for BA for the pomp/pride factor, expansive long haul flying etc, but wanted to know if anyone had any other less obvious thoughts on the issue?

Given the (currently hypothetical) choice between TCX and BA I would like to make an informed decision on what would suit............

Cheers.

I would guess, chiefly for some security??

BA seem to have managed the downturn in the market both positively and in some way admirably. To the extent they have not made any compulsory redundancies and are now recruiting.

TCX are currently playing the doom and gloom game with todays interim financial results pointing at increases in losses throughout the winter. In the report our chief says a review of the winter program is underway to reduce further losses in coming winters, whilst keeping summer capacity. Now this could mean anything from the company trying to find work for Pilots in the winter, to fleet reduction and subbing out work for the summer bulge... Who knows! What is for certain they are keen to tell us how bad trading conditions are but don't leap at the opportunity to lead us and come up with solutions.

All this is now making Thomas Cook are negative place and people are looking to leave for a company who offers some security. Another reason one may suspect is the indecision towards long haul. Many Pilots (particularly younger ones) aspire to longhaul. TCX are currently reducing the long haul program and have murmoured at even pulling out due to a lack of a market..........

Word on the street is that 30+ packing up for BA now and many more are trying. Management will probably not even have to lift a redundancy finger, their negativity will shake the tree sufficiently. But in the meantime they will leave us all mis-informed and despondant.

FLR,

TCX is not a bad place to work, but it doesn't feel very secure at the moment. For FOs towards the bottom of the seniority list things are looking increasingly uncertain, with 3 aircraft confirmed to be leaving the fleet this year and persistent rumours of further reduction in fleet numbers next year and beyond.

Management are unable to provide any reassurance or denial of these rumours simply because everything is totally down to how many holidays the tour operator sells, and world events mean that the 2011 programme is still constantly changing never mind the 2012 one.

TCX will always have the problem of having a lot more flying in the summer than in the winter, unfortunately it is my own opinion that it's beginning to look like the airline will be permanently crewed for the winter with extra temporary capacity being brought in for the summer. I think we've already seen the beginnings of this with the Aurela/Mint/Astreaus aircraft which have been used to top-up the fleet in peak season.

Comparing TCX and BA is like comparing apples and oranges - BA is an airline, TCX is the transport arm of the tour operator and is subject entirely to its capacity requirements, which are seasonal, changeable and wholly dependent on whether or not the public are willing to spend cash on foreign holidays.

It has always amused me how when things go awry in an airline, the first port of call is to the pilots asking for 70% contracts, pay freezes, winter sabbaticals, etc. and not to the commercial department asking them to take a similar pay cut until they find an adequate revenue stream for extra capacity.

Probably because the Commercial Dept. are all on Minimum Wage already!!!:eek:
Last time I was up at the Hangar, it resembled a cross between a youth center and a creche! Peterboro' = hundreds of call center operatives.

Frozen pilot has got his finger on the pulse with this one. Job security! Thomas Cook at the moment is almost trying to get rid of the expensive, senior pilots with talk of a/c going and doom and gloom.

However, TCX are a bunch of crafty b:mad:ers and it wouldnt suprise me if the doom and gloom is becuase the pay deal is coming around again and after the last pay freeze and comedy value share scheme they know they could be in for a big hit.

Rgds LHaul, the most expensive and nicest 330s are definatly being prepaired to be returned however a few rumours are that one of them has already been extented for a few more months and that Canadian Affair has come back with a better offer. Maybe they are just looking for a better/cheaper deal on 330's to be able to keep canadian affair going? To back this up TCX are doing 8 CCQ's at the moment for F/O's.

It has been mentioned but what really annoys me about TCX is that they are almost afraid of competition. The routes that Virgin and BA are expanding into TC are pulling out of such as Vegas. I know loads of people who want to go there and book their own accom and the consumer doesnt think you can do this with TC so they go else where. I see BA and Virgin also are flying to Cancun in the near future so I can only image we have a couple of seasons of that left. I strongly believe that the senior management of TCX are fixated on package holidays and are not willing to move with the market. Yes people still want package hols, however there are more people who want to arrange their own hotel and just want a decent cheap flight which is why seat only operators are doing so well. I know TC have a website devoted to selling seat only but I doubt much of the market does.

CABUS

That ccq thing is a real anomaly, I wonder if AR let that slip out by accident or on purpose. Either way, I hope your analysis turns out as its doom and gloom everywhere else you look. I don't think one should underestimate the MENA effect. TC have invested much time and money in Egypt, and to a lesser extent in Tunisia, all for potentially non-existent All Inclusive customers. If they feel that MENA is a dead cat we are already contracted out on the short short-haul, what do you do with the fleet? Well, the obvious (but not necessarily correct) answer is to shrink the fleet back to 2005 size. Ie Winter covered, summer subbed.
So, there we have it, either sunshine, Canada and a future or 200 pilots out the door and a much smaller fleet. Your guess is as good as mine.
However, we might know more after today.

Why today?

Do you know something I don't?:confused:

Word on the grapevine around the midlands is 27 airbus FO's leaving for pastures new, perhaps that might solve the upcoming problems?

I know of 8 that have sim checks with BA also. It wont be exclusive for Airbus F/O's going either. I will bet my bottom dollar with BA dishing out 74 positions the experienced Boeing drivers will start going for interviews.

Just my personal belief: The 747 allows you to be based anywhere, get leave in the summer, stable lifestyle (as long as you dont mind long flights, ... ooh back to back night Dalaman's.... no problem!!). Good pay. Oh and of course some stability.

Or stay at TCX with constant threats and roughly the same time sat in the right hand seat. Many more from TCX will most likely apply as the bosses continue their games.

With regards to the potential fleet reduction/ winter capacity cut:

3 (rumour 2 330's going)
6 757's to Jazz ( no flight deck from UK)
1 767 doing Hajj for final part of summer/ early winter
1 757 doing Scandi-Canary runs with our crew.

This to me shows they have reduced capacity already and the fleet has reduced for the period. Of course the 'fleet review' could be a smoke screen to satisfy investors?? They now have to manage numbers. The are a handful gone with EVS, possibly a few more will go after a very negative, hectic summer. Some part year options will be taken and the company knew of 20+ from BA's mouth last month. Interviews going on through the summer. This will increase, possibly substantially from here??

While the middle east has taken a kick. Egypt is cheap, cheerful and red hot....... Its what the Brits live for!!!! They dont have many more places to go to get similar conditions during the winter. There probably will be an increase in trade just as soon as the media shut up and the fickle public forget.

Sounds to me like you guys are getting good backing and support from your senior managers at least.
I have heard that some airlines treat their pilots with contempt and see them as the problem and not the solution.Well done TCX:D

ahhhhhhh! the gentle art of irony!

Frozenpilots analysis sounds pretty good to me and I hope he is correct after all the stress of base closures and (what turned out to be no) involuntary redundancies a few years ago.

I heard 2 interesting snippets yesterday from outside the company, one backed up the Scandi-Canarias comment, but the other indicated that there would be no TCX operations from this base for three months during the winter and very limited schedule for the rest of winter. Should that be correct, it would indicate that either an airframe wasn't available or that the base was going into semi closure for the winter.

Rumours of Fo's leaving goes up every day, 30 it was! Anyway, good luck to them, the grass is just a different shade of green elsewhere.

SFCC BALPA - Management meeting yesterday. Yet to hear anything though.

I believe most of the 757,s had their leases extended for a few years at the end of last season hence the bus skippers being pushed over to the 75 for a couple of seasons. The 320 fleet won't go with the choice to go bus in the long run, instead they will slowly be phased and with such a commitment to the 757 fleet rgds skippers and fins I'm inclined to believe that 12-15 is only a far off rumour, just the 3 330's and I think that's liable to change.

Spot on CABUS. Even the MD went on record saying there would be nothing like a figure of 15 Aircraft leaving the fleet on one of the forums. He said it was something to do with an Airbus order of 15 that had been mis-interpreted?? An Airline which is (on paper) profitable shed 40% of its fleet in one hit, seriously...

I suppose if they do another Airline will pick up the slack because the industry has seen massive consolidation in the charter market already and we do manage to fill our jets.

Saw a post on ppjn suggesting that recruitment is likely early 2012. Is anyone able to shed any light on this?

Any ideas which fleet they may need people for?

Cheers.

Heard last week from a colleague at work that TCX are going to bin all of their A330's this year instead of the few we already know about.

Any truth in this?

Not true, this week!
All will become clear by August, so we are led to believe.

macdo,

Are you able to shed any light on my previous post?

Cheers.

An incendiary first post CJMAN. You better be right, otherwise I feel a lot of heat coming your way!

FULL LEFT RUDDER, I'd be surprised if they didn't look at a few people during the recruitment season. How many, if any, are recruited is the standard sum of fleet size, resignations, retirements, promotions and long term sickness levels. I'd very much doubt if the FltOps management have more than an educated guess as to their needs at this stage. You'd best hope for no fleet reduction, 30+ off to pastures new and a dozen or so new commands. Although the exact opposite of the above is easily possible.

of course its likely to be cr@p, the rumour mill is rife in TCX at the moment and the management have done utterly nothing to stifle it.
As an example, I heard this morning something which would indicate a sudden and unexpected increase in LH demand this winter, but there is no point in putting on PPRUNE as it will probably turn out to be this weeks good idea and forgotten about by Friday. LH is in flux and you'll only know the true situation at the end of August when the indications are that the might be some important announcements about the airline.

On a 'director webchat' last week the top man suggested that the current plan is a reduction in fleet size of 4 aircraft at the end of this summer season (3x330 and 1x320). This is not confirmed at this stage, however a permanent fleet reduction of this magnitude would suggest TCX would then be overcrewed by 70ish pilots. I would have thought that redundancies are more likely than recruitment if this pans out (even with some natural wastage)
We are rold the picture will be clearer by August.

Sorry, FLAPERON, that redundancy figure is absolutely unsubstantiated. 70 odd pilots was bandied about earlier this year, but it was just one of those rumours that came from someone doing fag packet sums on the pilot establishment. Its very unlikely that there will compulsory job losses as there are loads of bods leaving, considering their options, retiring and even one or two looking at career breaks. So, please don't start frightening people until the facts are known. i.e all the guys that got FT contracts this year.

Just bear in mind when MYT was really in it and many of us had 'job at risk letters' the actual compulsory redundancy figure was ZERO.

Macdo - the figures are not unsubstantiated - the figure of 4 aircraft leaving came from the mouth (well, fingers) of FP himself, and as I said, this is to be confirmed. Aircraft are crewed at 14 pilots per 320 and 18 per 330, hence my figure of 70 pilots. Yes there are pilots leaving - current figure stands at 20-25 (including 12 to BA - most of whom are in the hold pool and not likely to be handing in their notice until next year.) So 45 to 50 pilots overcrewed. I'm not saying there will be 45-50 redundancies. I just said that redundancies are more likely than recruitment. I stand by that.

" 3 A330s and possibly one A320" unquote, makes the whole thing sound a bit less certain.

Even the 330 comment may no longer be valid.

Your own calculation is a fag packet calculation unless you are the DFO posting here anonymously.

Put your posts on XPLORER under your own moniker and see what sort of reaction you'll get. On here, even if you feel justified, its unfair worry people sitting at the bottom of the seniority list when neither of us have much more than rumour and maybe's to work with.

Personally, with quite a few years of observation of this company, it wouldn't surprise me if we recruited next season, I would be more surprised if they pushed anyone out.

Even the August announcement, which we agree on, we shouldn't believe until it actually appears.

macdo - pprune is a rumour network - people share thoughts, ideas and opinions. I have been expressing my opinion, and to be fair, it has been opinion based on facts which is more than can be said for many of the posts on here. I let you share your opinions without criticism however misplaced they may appear to me.

What would be the point of posting my thoughts on xplorer?? I was answering a question raised by someone who clearly doesn't work for TCX.

Anyone who works for Thomas Cook will be well aware of the situation and have their own opinion on the likelyhood of redundancies - I don't think my posts will be telling them anything they don't already know.

If you had posted your original point without the comment about being overcrewed by up to 70 pilots, I wouldn't have taken issue. This figure or any other regarding staffing levels, have not been addressed by or alluded to, by anyone in TCX management.

This is a rumour network, but most people on Pprune don't make unsubstantiated comments about possible redundancies.

Anyway c'est la vie, observers will make of our discussion what they will.

I spoke recently with the head of Pilots, who suggested we wouldn't loose more than the projected 3 A330's. There is of course a hell of a lot going on at TCX, which is leaving management unsure of what the establishment will look like. To qualify my previous statement. Yes, it does seem almost nailed on that 3x A33o's will be leaving (macdo if you have new light to shed, prey tell...). This, I heard a mangement Pilot say has already been factord into the Pilot establishment as the company pulled out of Canadian Affair last year and these were the routes the company operated those aircraft on.

Plans for late summer/winter are currently 2 A330's to do the Hajj for 12 weeks. One 767 is to be leased to Condor for 18 months with our flight deck, doing long haul out of a German base. One 757 will be based in TFS working for TCX Scandanavia. The company are now looking at the logistics of basing a 757 in Calgary doing Hawaii for Jazz for the winter. I heard about this additional work from ' the horses mouth' so to speak. He also said that we are on target for our winter establishment when factoring leave days to be taken, additional GDO's, PPY etc.

Also the summer program has changed significantly. I am already sick of seeing Palma on my roster, which has not been the case for many yeasr. So how will the increased number of shorter sectors affect the establishment?

We all know F P's glass is always half full, things seem to change so quickly at TCX, we are now not told how our bookings are going, so I assume quite well...... Based on the 'suggestions' made flaperon is right (however those crew levels sound a bit high) but macdo is right in that there is so much going on, people leaving (and we have so far only felt the effects of BA recruiting) detatchments, part year etc.

With a sizable payrise coming next year it is to be hoped, should there be a significant Pilot excess the company will look to be pragmatic and reduce costs from the top (a decent EVS, with options) hopefully create a few commands along the way and we can all play nicely..............hmmn............

FP thats a pretty balanced view.
A couple of further observations so people can see how things change.
On the Hajj, over the past 3 months that has gone from a single 76, to 76 plus 330, to single 330, now 2 x 330's with a base change back to Batam! Which seems the solid position which we can bid on.

2 Months ago the a/c to be based away was a 330 for Scandi and a 75 in TFS for Condor. All change again, sounds like fun whatever the deal!

As far as the 3 330's leaving, there have been many whispers over the last few weeks that, in fact it will only be 2. But yesterday there were some indications from the Tour Operator that work currently transferring over to another operator might not all disappear from us. This is two separate rumours, which was why I have not posted anything specific, but it sounds hopeful.

re. Your info on Hawaii, I heard from engineers some weeks ago, and I laughed as it seemed so fanciful, just goes to show. LOL

We work in an unstable industry in the best of times, but right now just about anything could happen. Personally I'm more concerned about the state of the tour operator than the airline. It looks like the tailend of the summer will be a sea of red ink, we can only hope that margins are sufficient for these cut price holidays to be sold with a bit of profit.

MIllions of holidays still unsold as cash-strapped families abandon plans for summer breaks - mirror.co.uk

Yeah Tour Ops really are a big problem to us!

Well if we do get cut loose from the group and follow path Management have suggested maybe we can develop a sustainable business and actually start challenging the Eayjets, Jet 2's and Monarch's.............

will we get to keep those shiny Ipad's though? ;)

Hiring
 

This thread is an interesting read and contrasts sharply with the PPJN website that implies possible recruitment early in 2012. For those of us aspiring to join it makes for confusing reading!

Good luck to all of you in one of the few quality UK outfits left.

Desk pilot - looking at the updates on ppjn, it seems that about a dozen UK airlines all had positive hiring updates posted on the same day. I think that anyone can update the info on ppjn so I would take it with a large pinch of salt. Not sure what motivation anyone would have for doing that though..... strange!

As far as rumurs go, I've heard the 75 in TFS, 76 in Germany, 75 in Calgary to Hawaii, new route to Cape Verde and the airline becoming an autonomous scheduled operation. If you remember back to the MYT Lite days, they claimed it was hugely succesful but never had enough 'critical mass' (managment term of the era) to make a viable penetration of the market sector. They also said W patterns and deep nights didn't make any money. And what do find ourselves doing recently?
I've also heard all MAN LH to go to Virgin on 330, possible 6 airframes, slight reduction in UK SH fleet & european expansion of about 5 airframes based/crewed with a Turkish flavour.
Trust some of that helps muddy the water a little. Oh yeah, FP is on his way out and that lady from Tour Ops is taking over, nearly forgot.