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I will say this. Let the numbers do the talking. Q3 will be out shortly. Full year results are likely showing another loss, but CFO still guiding the markets for a 100 percent improvement comparing last year. This excluding the 787 and max reimbursements. Loadfactor on LH in the high nineties, yield up month by month. Rumors of Norwegians demise have been greatly exaggerated, partly led by media, MOL and his evil henchmen
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Originally Posted by directmisbi
(Post 10590188)
I will say this. Let the numbers do the talking. Q3 will be out shortly. Full year results are likely showing another loss, but CFO still guiding the markets for a 100 percent improvement comparing last year. This excluding the 787 and max reimbursements. Loadfactor on LH in the high nineties, yield up month by month. Rumors of Norwegians demise have been greatly exaggerated, partly led by media, MOL and his evil henchmen
If Norwegian were in their current position going into a Summer where the general market is on the up, with all aircraft delivered and markets becoming established then maybe they might stand a chance but as things stand I would doubt that very much. The decision to buy brand new 787s for an LCC product was madness in my opinion. The airline would have been better off opting for A321s and operating them to the limits of their range, rather than launching flights to places like BKK and EZE. Seat costs on the B788 on LGW-JFK are circa £250 one-way. Adjust for ancillary revenue and a 90% load factor and you need a fare of around £235 to break-even. That is excluding taxes, year round and across every seat. For every £133 fare put out, a £335 fare will be required to achieve that average. A £335 fare will equate to around £800 return once taxes and charges are added on, hardly low-cost! Yes, there is a premium cabin, but that accounts for only a relatively small number of seats. When the airline is putting out £50 o/w fares in low season excluding taxes (yes you did read that right) please help me understand how it will miraculously turn itself around? |
This excluding the 787 and max reimbursement |
Same as with the A340. Once Boeing is pushed into a corner then it inevitably offer a discount on new orders and/or dangle carrots. But it will kick it into touch for as long as it can in the knowledge that some of its customers won't be around to claim.
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Originally Posted by Doors to Automatic
(Post 10585911)
From detailed analysis I have carried out to advise investors in DY, I would say that Plastic787’s analysis is absolutely spot on. Last year the airline made NOK 1.3bn during Q3, which was swallowed up halfway through Q4. Since then they have issued more shares, sold off assets and effectively defaulted on a huge loan, putting up their LGW slots as security in return for an extension. I am willing to bet the bondholders had no choice. Despite their proclamations about turning the company around and morphing dramatically from growth to profitability, Q1 and Q2 seat costs are around 20% higher than 2018. Summer 2019 passengers and revenues have been broadly flat in July and August and so unless there has been a dramatic reduction in the seat cost trend it is likely Q3 will not make anywhere near the profit of Q3 2018. If this comes to pass (we should find out next week), it will be a very tough Winter. I hope I am wrong but I don’t see a rosy future for this airline, just based on figures and trends I have analysed recently, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...KBN1X30CX?il=0 |
Originally Posted by directmisbi
(Post 10602088)
that they have found an investor willing to buy 27 A320NEO’s? Hardly any risk involved for the leasing company. |
So basically Norwegian is either selling or offering as security any valuable asset they have in order to survive and/or delaying repaying their huge debt.
Yep, that sounds like a proper, sound business model. |
Originally Posted by dirk85
(Post 10602263)
So basically Norwegian is either selling or offering as security any valuable asset they have in order to survive and/or delaying repaying their huge debt.
Yep, that sounds like a proper, sound business model. Apart from the joint venture, and perhaps more importantly , the underlying business is improving with the best ever quarterly result for Norwegian. US market now biggest in terms of revenue and with the new cooperation agreement with JetBlue more to come im sure. After all the EasyJet cooperation fills up two dreamliners out of LGW alone, each and every day. |
Of course they are going to save money, they are selling off assets, closing bases, cutting routes, and asking staff to take unpaid leave and part time.
Also it is the summer season I do hope an airline makes money in the peak season. The article clearly states the new chinese investment group will take ownership of the airbus deal, and Artic aviation assets are set to make $10 million from each sale! |
Originally Posted by Speedbrakes Up
(Post 10602276)
Of course they are going to save money, they are selling off assets, closing bases, cutting routes, and asking staff to take unpaid leave and part time.
Also it is the summer season I do hope an airline makes money in the peak season. The article clearly states the new chinese investment group will take ownership of the airbus deal, and Artic aviation assets are set to make $10 million from each sale! JV with a Chinese bank is now in place and 27 A320neo will initially enter the leasing company, where Norwegian will own 30% and CCB Leasing (owned by China Construction Bank) will have the remaining 70%. The JV agreement will reduce the financial obligations to Norwegian by NOK 13.7 billion in the first place. The focus on profitability continues through FOCUS 2019 and the new Next program, which will contribute at least NOK 4 billion at the EBITDAR level in 2021. |
directmisbi - You’re wasting your time mate arguing with these armchair experts. Each has an obvious axe to grind with the company, let them have their little moments. These keyboard warriors have no credentials when it comes to airline management, if they did they wouldn’t be spouting their s*#@ on here, they’d be running their own. |
Originally Posted by plumponpies
(Post 10602314)
directmisbi - You’re wasting your time mate arguing with these armchair experts. Each has an obvious axe to grind with the company, let them have their little moments. These keyboard warriors have no credentials when it comes to airline management, if they did they wouldn’t be spouting their s*#@ on here, they’d be running their own. |
Seat Costs were pretty much as expected in Q3. Seat Revenues were a little higher than I thought they would be so hands up there. Asset sales carry on with gusto. And those bonds will still require repaying before we know it.
All they have done is delay the inevitable IMHO. It is not beyond impossible that they will turn it around, but I would still be surprised. |
Originally Posted by Doors to Automatic
(Post 10602358)
Seat Costs were pretty much as expected in Q3. Seat Revenues were a little higher than I thought they would be so hands up there. Asset sales carry on with gusto. And those bonds will still require repaying before we know it.
All they have done is delay the inevitable IMHO. It is not beyond impossible that they will turn it around, but I would still be surprised. Try and be positive - the last thing Europe needs is another airline failure. Should change your username to “ vulture “ |
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More cash inbound!
According to DN.no, Dagens Næringsliv, Norwegian is expanding stocks and loans to the tune of 2.8 Billion Nkr or ca 280 million euro.
Sissner and other lenders happy with progress in revenue. They fly less and earn more. Looking better every day I figure and a good chance of making it trough the winter. Regards Cpt B |
& less cash inbound
They also lost the large contract they had with the Norwegian Armed Forces, to the tune of 300.000+ passengers a year.
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Dear Pilots: Due to the seasonality that we will face in the 2019 winter season, in addition to the current MAX and 787 fleet status, we have identified a surplus of pilots from 1st of December 2019 until the end of March 2020 in the Spanish bases. As a result of this, the company needs to adapt resources and adjust them to the actual demand. There are different options outlined in the link provided are available for all pilot positions from 1st of December to 31st of March. We ask that you review the below options thoroughly and take the opportunity to consider one of the options to assist us in reaching a sustainable programme throughout this coming winter. All processes presented will be dependent upon a reached agreement with SEPLA. In the event of no agreement being reached, the company will reach out to you individually to confirm the updated terms. In the voluntary options presented, every part-time position will have a 10% incentive in salary. The effect would be applied as follows: 70% part time, paid 80% 60% part time, paid 70% 50% part time, paid 60% Those who choose the option for 100% ERTE will be provided with a monthly incentive, per rank, as follows: 100% ERTE CPT, paid 1500€ per month 100% ERTE RCA, paid 1250€ per month 100% ERTE FO, paid 1000€ per month VOLUNTARY OPTIONS WILL ONLY BE APPLICABLE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD 1ST DEC TO 31ST MAR. Assignments will be done by Base | Fleet | Rank/Category, according to seniority. DEADLINE: All bids must be submitted by Thursday, November 14th by 15.00. All participation is considered voluntary in nature, however, if you choose to submit one of the options provided this will be binding. Those whom have been awarded a base change due to the MAD closure, will have their part-time award combined with their transfer to new base. In the event we do not meet the required reductions in FTE’s, the Company will need to apply forced ERTE process per Base | Rank | Fleet. The effect of the forced ERTE Process will then be distributed to the non-voluntary pilots as follows: 70% part time, paid 75% 60% part time, paid 65% 50% part time, paid 55% This is the Company’s target maximum reduction; however, this will be dependent on the number of voluntary reductions we receive in this bidding. Bids communicated outside of this link will not be considered as part of this process. Best Regards Manpower Planning |
Did Norwegian lay off all OSM pilots from their FLL base this time last year? I hadn’t read anything about this US pilot staffed base closure. Why? |
Temporary lay-offs in HEL
As a result of negociations between OSM and the pilot union, all HEL based Norwegian pilots will be temporarily laid off. One week unpaid leave per month during Jan-Apr 2020. Approx. 75% work, 80% pay. Please Mr Boeing, fix my MAX! :sad:
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