Is the pilot shortage here?
 

In short... No. As long as there is a steady supply of pilots who, after all the advice and warnings from fellow pilots, still are willing to fork up a wad of cash for a typerating , or even worse, a P2F scam-scheme, these same lo-co airlines and their likes will still keep on trucking. Just take a quick peek at the last comments on the latest threads (at any given time) here at T&E and you'll see what I mean.
However, there might be a light at the end of the tunnel that possibly isn't the freighttrain after all.. If one is to believe the article, there is an upcoming shortage of suitble candidtes. Albeit the term "suitable candidtes" can mean several things, i.e. for O'Kjos it means whoever isn't an expense for them, while at more traditional airlines with unions it most certainly means those who fit into a given profile which they are looking for. The thing is.... a lot of these future pilots having these prerequisites often are the ones who actually analyse things in stead of just doing the Leap of Faith blindfolded. Given the high training costs for initial training, in addition to what has more of less become a European industry standard (SSTR, P2F etc), there will most certainly be a lack of suitable candidates.
What can be done? Regulation comes to mind. But can one fault the newbies straight out of flightschool, fed by the shiny jet propaganda? It's a catch 22 from my point of view. The phrase "don't hate the player, hate the game" is valid, but in the same phrase lies the truth that if there weren't any players to play the game, well, then there wouldn't be any game to be played, or the rules of the game would be different. And that, IMO, is the crux. What kind of a pilot are you, and what kind of a pilot do you want to be?
Good luck.

LoCo's built their business model on 'market forces'; i.e. the pax would flock to the lowest prices. It did work and the industry changed. The majors reacted & I can often get a comparable 'total ticket price' on a national carrier. There are also more players in the LoCo market. This rapid expansion was possible because of endless wannabes knocking on the door with wads of cash.
Those same market forces are now shifting from the cabin to the cockpit. Read the thread about Jet 2 v RYR. Even there the gulf is significant. Add in China's golden geese offers. I'd expect the ME majors to respond. With their expansion plans they will have to otherwise their a/c will be eating sand. The LoCo's may survive because some will see them as flight schools and the large airlines will allow them to be so. If they require 1500hrs minimum then the ruthless LoCo's will be seen as stepping stones. Huge turnover, but cadets preparing to gamble they can move on after a few years. It won't take much for a local airline to create a sympathetic package, offer a good career, and suck pilots away from the cut-throat merciless LoCo. Not everyone wants to trek off across the world and a cosier family life at home with enough income and work enjoyment will suffice.
Market forces will out, on both sides of the cockpit door.

“..growing lack of suitable candidates” - That pretty much says it all.

Nobody knows...

As evidenced in the BA DEP thread, 5 minutes ago it sounded like they they needed 100+ DEPS to Long Haul in 2017, now, following this years political events and a change in plan it's possibly diddley squat.

Like most predictions about this over the years we'll know it's true when it actually happens.

I just received a mail from one infamous online agency, offering 100 EUR cash for my "pilot friend" to sign up to their database.

The title of the article made me laugh.

My quick question is, excluding China, can anyone identify a pilot contract in the world where this pilot shortage is evident?

Europe pays an average of 5/6000 eur for a captain doing 900 hrs per year, North and South America are a closed and saturated market, middle east is a bit better but still way lower than China, and the rest of the far east (Singapore, Japan etc..) doesn't look too desperate either.

Like I said the only shortage I see is in China, the rest looks like only words to me..

As megalomaniac CEO’s seek to adversely and irrevocably undermine labor rights and labor principles with novel and complex labor models, the supply will continue to diminish as more stable and more principled careers are pursued.

Presently, not so much a pilot shortage, more a calamitous shortage of competent managers responsible to ensure sufficient staffing levels for scheduled flights:-

“So far this month, however, Norwegian Air has stranded an estimated 5,000 passengers because of an acute lack of pilots to fly its scheduled flights” – (July)

http://www.newsinenglish.no/2016/07/...ss-apologizes/

“It’s high season and we do have a shortage of pilots”

http://cphpost.dk/news/thousands-lef...0-flights.html

“Norwegian Air cancels flights again” – (October)

http://www.newsinenglish.no/2016/10/...flights-again/

“The family Kjos created pilot chaos”

http://www.dn.no/nyheter/naringsliv/...apte-pilotkaos

“The company [Norwegian] denies that there is any general pilot shortage”

http://www.dn.no/nyheter/naringsliv/...nnet-p-piloter

“Norwegian aircraft understaffed across the Atlantic– Unacceptable, says CAA”

http://www.dagbladet.no/2015/02/18/n...gian/37782004/

I believe there is a shortage of Aviators with the right attitude, professionalism and manual flying skills.

Pilots, on the other hand are growing like mushrooms.

It all depends what you want and what you are willing to offer. I do see some positivemsigns even in europe, but so far they are very weak and resticted to some very tiny niche markets.

Eurowings for example contacted all air berlin cadets in september and offered them immediate employment at full pay while work would start in may next year. Air berlin retaliated by offering lufthansa cadets a spot beginning of january at much better terms than eurowings offers, and of course offered their own cadets immediate employment at those same terms. Both did that simply to get a known quality of thoroughly selected and trained pilot entrants with a fitting typerating (MPL requires a full type- and linetraining) that do not need much further training. Outside of both pools there are more than enough applicants to fill all those spots.

Well said Direct Bondi, there seems to be no end of aviation middle and senior managers who, whilst keen to impress the boss with stats and line their pockets at the same time, seem to have a unique skill of cocking the whole thing up!!

At a previous airline I was told on day 1 that the boss doesn't like pilots and if I didn't like anything then tough, :mad:! Well right now that's just what everyone is doing at that airline!

Even if they are P2F, don't they still have to meet a certain standard, particularly if it's one of the 'big three' flight schools? If that's the case, it doesn't matter how much money you throw at it, if you haven't got the ability, you won't make the grade, so surely cream will always rise? Hopefully, theses schools don't let just anyone graduate?

I'm not being facetious, this is a genuine ask.

Problem is: define suitable. "Cream will always rise." True, but the modern airline doesn't need cream, it needs good enough = average, and as the average standard requirement has diluted so has the average skill threshold. The necessity for a pilot to be an above average handling pilot is no more. Indeed there are many places where, other than initial base training, stints of manual flying are discouraged. Can you manipulate the a/c via the automatics & SOP's and a standard day and then land the darned thing in the correct place once the Autopilot has put it in the correct place at 500', in trim & on speed? Click click, bonk. Good good I'm a pilot. After 4 years shift 3 feet left and earn more dosh under 30 than you dreamed of when starting school at 7 years old.
In that process there is very little piloting skill to be demonstrated; there is not that much 'man management' training/assessing going on either: you've got it or you haven't. There are too many operators that take your cash for self-funded training without assessing properly if you are in-built captain material. OK, you pass the course by being within limits at all times and are a faithful SOP disciple, but I do hear stories of some pretty incompetent decisions being made about non-QRH issues, usually pax on-ground orientated. I even heard about a/c flooding because there was no SOP to close the door and delay boarding. And god forbid if the APU s u/s and it's 30c with a 2 hr slot and someone has to make a smart decision.
There's more to captaincy than hours and tests. Taking a 400 pax large group, and 16 relatives, across the world back over 6 days and manage all the traps thrown in your path is no mean feat. The same is true for short-haul over 5 days in 5 different hotels with early starts during a severe winter. I think 'man management' in the job is overlooked too much.

When I see offers likes wizzair, avion express, small planet or Eurowings Europe (!!!) I cannot understand how on earth somebody could even think about a pilots shortage.

There certainly is no Pilot shortage in Europe, if there were then I would have worked the last 7 years from home. There is a pilot shortage in China.

If, post Brexit, British Pilots cannot operate from European bases or intra European flights then there may be a brief period of shortage for some airlines in the EU. At the same time there'll be a glut of Pilots in the UK.

I think you've got that back to front - there are far more European pilots in uk airlines, than uk pilots based in any European country. Assuming the loss of freedom to work in Europe/uk was reciprocal, the net shortage would be far greater in the uk.

10 years ? 20 ? 30 ? give us a shout when it hits off (I have a few years left to collect ) my age always increases at the same pace as the Chinese "age limit", so, no, we ain't there yet :hmm:

Midnight cruiser: I hope you're right and you've looked at the actual statistics on it.

My fear is that the UK as the country instigating the break up cannot force 3,000,000 people from their right to residence or work in the UK. That includes the Pilots. 27 European countries will never get it together and provide work permits for Brits working in Europe, I just don't believe that is going to happen. I do think in the end it will be a one way street and Brit Pilots will be returning to the UK and EU Pilots will stay in the UK.

I hope you are right and I hope that what I think will happen does not pan out.

What if airlines will go for the girls? Half of the population is women I assume. If you can run a campaign and attract let's say 2% increase in women going for a career in aviation.

Your numbers are there. No problem. No shortage, no increase in pay.

As long there is P2fly there is no shortage. The airline should pay for the training.
When we are there than we can say it is a healthy job market.

My 2 cents,