I was told by a bloke that he will hire, in this order:

1. Type rated experienced people
2. Type rated people without experience
3. Non type rated people with experience
4. Doesn't matter what #4 is, there are plenty of #3.

Dare I say that the supply of 1s and 2s are drying up....?

There is no shortage of pilots whatsoever. When Thomson Airways in the UK recruited a modest number of pilots this year on to the B737, it received over 700 type rated applicants. It is merely wishful thinking on behalf of ignorant or delusional individuals or flying schools pedalling a reoccurring myth.

Neither is there likely to be one for a long time to come given the real economic climate that the US and Europe face.

There certainly does not seem to be any shortage. But then again I doubt all of the 700 type rated people applying to Thomson were without jobs. Pilots often see the grass as being greener elsewhere. The number who had more than 1500 hours on type (couple of years experience) and were currently unemployed would be interesting to know.

I think there is a real shortage of pilots, airlines can't fill their jets and are actively recruiting cadets on fully funded, fast track ATPL courses, did you not know this?

Fully funded by the cadet of course. Its a money maker for the School and airline.

You may think that but that's simply not true.

For those who missed it, I'm sure this is sarcasm.

The point being made is this,
WHEN there is a shortage of pilots, airlines will be having trouble filling their jets, they will be actively recruiting cadets and paying for their fast track ATPL courses.
Additionally, there will be a shortage of flight instructors, because they'll all be getting jobs with airlines.


Until we see these things, then it's clear there is NOT a shortage of pilots, there isn't even a shortage of experienced pilots.

Just my two cents for anyone reading this and thinking about training:

Schools will always talk about a pilot shortage, and in a way is that surprising? They are businesses after all.

There is a video up on youtube of a CTC open day which shows just how hard some FTOs like to push the stats.

The case is as it has always been (although granted much more difficult now than as in the boom years) - there are jobs for low houred pilots. Just nowhere near enough to go round. You either have to be lucky or make sure you work your socks off to differentiate yourself from everybody else.

Of those few jobs for low houred guys and girls, most don't offer the T&Cs that attracted them to the industry in the first place, BUT getting the first job will open up many others. Don't bend over for P2F or T&Cs that resemble slave labour but on the other hand don't pass up on opportunities just because they don't pay a salary your FTO tempted you with initially.

Think long and hard about what you will do if you cannot find a job that will cover your loan repayments, I know people in this situation and its not nice to see it happen to friends. Out of our FTO course, fewer than 50% have secured airline employment. Not to say that flying a jet is the only way to make a career in aviation, but lets face it, not many go to the likes of CTC, OAA, FTE with the expectation of being an FI.