I think its safe to say that the events in the past 24 hours in Pakistan means your average British holidaymaker will think long and hard about going on holiday to any Muslim country.

Combine that with the Jasmine Revolution and it gives aviation in 2011 another kick in the stomach when 6 months ago is was looking pretty optimistic.

NB Interest rates will go up .25% this month, mate who works for Ernst&Young gave me the inside track.

+1 re O-b-L. Its an ill wind and all that.

Personally I think FP and Co. have been extremely reticent about giving us any firm info for next year, that plus the almost disappearance of the Flt Ops management from public view leads me to think grim thoughts.. (again):{

split-ffmtcc

Your mate obviously has his finger on the pulse!

BBC News - UK interest rates kept on hold at 0.5%

Ha, he assures me next month definitely. He's billed out at £490+VAT an hour too.

Interest rates will stay like this for a good while yet. There is no UK centric inflation.

Spot on NR.

An increase in interest rates will have virtually no effect on inflation. It is nearly all fuelled by construction, food and energy demands of emerging economies. It will, however, lead to around 17,000 UK home reposessions according to the BBC.

I used to work for a 'big 5' accounting firm and was billed out at a similar rate. My manager was on mega bucks and knew less about economics than a GCSE student. A long career in these companies simply means that they passed a few exams and kissed a lot of ass. Somthing I was not willing to do!

EK

Can anyone on the inside give their opinions on why 20 guys/girls would choose to leave TCX and go to BA?

Having spoken to several friends at TCX it sounds like a good place to be. Obviously some guys would leave any airline for BA for the pomp/pride factor, expansive long haul flying etc, but wanted to know if anyone had any other less obvious thoughts on the issue?

Given the (currently hypothetical) choice between TCX and BA I would like to make an informed decision on what would suit............

Cheers.

I would guess, chiefly for some security??

BA seem to have managed the downturn in the market both positively and in some way admirably. To the extent they have not made any compulsory redundancies and are now recruiting.

TCX are currently playing the doom and gloom game with todays interim financial results pointing at increases in losses throughout the winter. In the report our chief says a review of the winter program is underway to reduce further losses in coming winters, whilst keeping summer capacity. Now this could mean anything from the company trying to find work for Pilots in the winter, to fleet reduction and subbing out work for the summer bulge... Who knows! What is for certain they are keen to tell us how bad trading conditions are but don't leap at the opportunity to lead us and come up with solutions.

All this is now making Thomas Cook are negative place and people are looking to leave for a company who offers some security. Another reason one may suspect is the indecision towards long haul. Many Pilots (particularly younger ones) aspire to longhaul. TCX are currently reducing the long haul program and have murmoured at even pulling out due to a lack of a market..........

Word on the street is that 30+ packing up for BA now and many more are trying. Management will probably not even have to lift a redundancy finger, their negativity will shake the tree sufficiently. But in the meantime they will leave us all mis-informed and despondant.

FLR,

TCX is not a bad place to work, but it doesn't feel very secure at the moment. For FOs towards the bottom of the seniority list things are looking increasingly uncertain, with 3 aircraft confirmed to be leaving the fleet this year and persistent rumours of further reduction in fleet numbers next year and beyond.

Management are unable to provide any reassurance or denial of these rumours simply because everything is totally down to how many holidays the tour operator sells, and world events mean that the 2011 programme is still constantly changing never mind the 2012 one.

TCX will always have the problem of having a lot more flying in the summer than in the winter, unfortunately it is my own opinion that it's beginning to look like the airline will be permanently crewed for the winter with extra temporary capacity being brought in for the summer. I think we've already seen the beginnings of this with the Aurela/Mint/Astreaus aircraft which have been used to top-up the fleet in peak season.

Comparing TCX and BA is like comparing apples and oranges - BA is an airline, TCX is the transport arm of the tour operator and is subject entirely to its capacity requirements, which are seasonal, changeable and wholly dependent on whether or not the public are willing to spend cash on foreign holidays.

It has always amused me how when things go awry in an airline, the first port of call is to the pilots asking for 70% contracts, pay freezes, winter sabbaticals, etc. and not to the commercial department asking them to take a similar pay cut until they find an adequate revenue stream for extra capacity.

Probably because the Commercial Dept. are all on Minimum Wage already!!!:eek:
Last time I was up at the Hangar, it resembled a cross between a youth center and a creche! Peterboro' = hundreds of call center operatives.

Frozen pilot has got his finger on the pulse with this one. Job security! Thomas Cook at the moment is almost trying to get rid of the expensive, senior pilots with talk of a/c going and doom and gloom.

However, TCX are a bunch of crafty b:mad:ers and it wouldnt suprise me if the doom and gloom is becuase the pay deal is coming around again and after the last pay freeze and comedy value share scheme they know they could be in for a big hit.

Rgds LHaul, the most expensive and nicest 330s are definatly being prepaired to be returned however a few rumours are that one of them has already been extented for a few more months and that Canadian Affair has come back with a better offer. Maybe they are just looking for a better/cheaper deal on 330's to be able to keep canadian affair going? To back this up TCX are doing 8 CCQ's at the moment for F/O's.

It has been mentioned but what really annoys me about TCX is that they are almost afraid of competition. The routes that Virgin and BA are expanding into TC are pulling out of such as Vegas. I know loads of people who want to go there and book their own accom and the consumer doesnt think you can do this with TC so they go else where. I see BA and Virgin also are flying to Cancun in the near future so I can only image we have a couple of seasons of that left. I strongly believe that the senior management of TCX are fixated on package holidays and are not willing to move with the market. Yes people still want package hols, however there are more people who want to arrange their own hotel and just want a decent cheap flight which is why seat only operators are doing so well. I know TC have a website devoted to selling seat only but I doubt much of the market does.

CABUS

That ccq thing is a real anomaly, I wonder if AR let that slip out by accident or on purpose. Either way, I hope your analysis turns out as its doom and gloom everywhere else you look. I don't think one should underestimate the MENA effect. TC have invested much time and money in Egypt, and to a lesser extent in Tunisia, all for potentially non-existent All Inclusive customers. If they feel that MENA is a dead cat we are already contracted out on the short short-haul, what do you do with the fleet? Well, the obvious (but not necessarily correct) answer is to shrink the fleet back to 2005 size. Ie Winter covered, summer subbed.
So, there we have it, either sunshine, Canada and a future or 200 pilots out the door and a much smaller fleet. Your guess is as good as mine.
However, we might know more after today.

Why today?

Do you know something I don't?:confused:

Word on the grapevine around the midlands is 27 airbus FO's leaving for pastures new, perhaps that might solve the upcoming problems?

I know of 8 that have sim checks with BA also. It wont be exclusive for Airbus F/O's going either. I will bet my bottom dollar with BA dishing out 74 positions the experienced Boeing drivers will start going for interviews.

Just my personal belief: The 747 allows you to be based anywhere, get leave in the summer, stable lifestyle (as long as you dont mind long flights, ... ooh back to back night Dalaman's.... no problem!!). Good pay. Oh and of course some stability.

Or stay at TCX with constant threats and roughly the same time sat in the right hand seat. Many more from TCX will most likely apply as the bosses continue their games.

With regards to the potential fleet reduction/ winter capacity cut:

3 (rumour 2 330's going)
6 757's to Jazz ( no flight deck from UK)
1 767 doing Hajj for final part of summer/ early winter
1 757 doing Scandi-Canary runs with our crew.

This to me shows they have reduced capacity already and the fleet has reduced for the period. Of course the 'fleet review' could be a smoke screen to satisfy investors?? They now have to manage numbers. The are a handful gone with EVS, possibly a few more will go after a very negative, hectic summer. Some part year options will be taken and the company knew of 20+ from BA's mouth last month. Interviews going on through the summer. This will increase, possibly substantially from here??

While the middle east has taken a kick. Egypt is cheap, cheerful and red hot....... Its what the Brits live for!!!! They dont have many more places to go to get similar conditions during the winter. There probably will be an increase in trade just as soon as the media shut up and the fickle public forget.

Sounds to me like you guys are getting good backing and support from your senior managers at least.
I have heard that some airlines treat their pilots with contempt and see them as the problem and not the solution.Well done TCX:D

ahhhhhhh! the gentle art of irony!

Frozenpilots analysis sounds pretty good to me and I hope he is correct after all the stress of base closures and (what turned out to be no) involuntary redundancies a few years ago.

I heard 2 interesting snippets yesterday from outside the company, one backed up the Scandi-Canarias comment, but the other indicated that there would be no TCX operations from this base for three months during the winter and very limited schedule for the rest of winter. Should that be correct, it would indicate that either an airframe wasn't available or that the base was going into semi closure for the winter.

Rumours of Fo's leaving goes up every day, 30 it was! Anyway, good luck to them, the grass is just a different shade of green elsewhere.

SFCC BALPA - Management meeting yesterday. Yet to hear anything though.

I believe most of the 757,s had their leases extended for a few years at the end of last season hence the bus skippers being pushed over to the 75 for a couple of seasons. The 320 fleet won't go with the choice to go bus in the long run, instead they will slowly be phased and with such a commitment to the 757 fleet rgds skippers and fins I'm inclined to believe that 12-15 is only a far off rumour, just the 3 330's and I think that's liable to change.