Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

[guy_incognito]

Originally Posted by homonculus

A year ago if people had suggested taking affirmative action to kill 500,000 British citizens, they would have been sent to the funny farm. And that is the issue. It isnt the guy in the street nor the 4 striper who stops or eases lockdown, it is the government, and that means the cabinet or perhaps just Boris.....It must be the most difficult quandary. If they get it wrong, not getting re elected will be the least of their problems.

The comment about New Zealand not only shows how the UK and some other countries failed dismally, but also the problems moving forward. Many industries will restart, and some havent even stopped, but tourism, hospitality and transportation will be badly effected by reduced demand from frightened citizens and ongoing restrictions from frightened politicians until there is a vaccine. Fortunately it is very very likely one of the many vaccines will work, and if it is one of the early ones and we can develop manufacturing capacity (purely a matter of money and will power) we could vaccinate 70% of the developed world, except perhaps the USA, by Q1 next year

It is highly unlikely (albeit not impossible) that a vaccine will be developed this year, but vaccinating 70% of the developed world (why leave out the US?) is pure fantasy on any timescale, let alone less than a year.

As you’ve said, the big calls are being made by politicians who will simply never make any decisions Sir Humphrey would dub ‘courageous’. What we’re witnessing is the ultimate in big government expansionism and nanny-statism, roared on by a media apparatus, much of which would usually rail against the excesses of the state (Daily Mail, The Express etc.).

For those in the high risk category, self isolating is probably prudent, though it shouldn’t be mandatory. For the majority however, the extra alcohol and takeaways they’re consuming during this intervening period is more likely to be injurious to their health than novel coronavirus.

[homonculus]

It is highly unlikely (albeit not impossible) that a vaccine will be developed this year, but vaccinating 70% of the developed world (why leave out the US?) is pure fantasy on any timescale, let alone less than a year.

There are at least seven vaccines being tested on humans or about to be, all from reputable labs with good track records. There is I agree no guarantee but the track record suggests that about 2 will become commercial. I am more optimistic than you. We do indeed vaccinate 70% or more of the susceptible in the developed world with flu vaccine every winter and the only reason we dont vaccinate 70% of more people is cost. We universally aim to vaccinate with MMR and other vaccines and achieve well over 70%. If the money is there to manufacture, 70% is achievable in about a year. The reason I say not the USA is simply because their record with flu vaccine is abysmal primarily because it isnt free at point of use, and the price isnt 'cost plus' but many times more. Hence the US death rate per million population is higher due to less vaccination.

For the majority however, the extra alcohol and takeaways they’re consuming during this intervening period is more likely to be injurious to their health than novel coronavirus.

True, because if fully locked down the risk of Covid-19 is effectively zero. However without lockdown we may have seen 924,000 deaths over a matter of months. That is a lot of takeaways

[Loose rivets]

I write with a statistical life expectancy of 10 months, yet oddly, I still care a great deal about the dangers I see every day. Ordinary folk indeed don't 'want to understand' and are doubly blind to the dangers. They would hand out white feathers to non-singers if they could source the feathers. A tightly knit comminity all singing into the road at the same time in a light breeze. What could possibly go wrong?

My concern for the enemy taking on new form and gaining strength. BBC NEWS current now.Coronavirus: 'My son had symptoms of rare syndrome'

Doctors around the UK have been warning about a rare but serious syndrome that could be linked to the pandemic virus.

Philadelphia ~1919 is a horror story - and a mystery. It was linked to the flu but resembled the Plague of London. The case of one (or a few?) above, is not meaningful, but it's this kind of offshoot that we should be looking out for like hawks.

[rotorwills]

Looks like BA are taking necessary action in order to stay in the game and survive. No bail out from UK tax payers. It's tough for so many of our fellow aviation colleagues but at least BA are facing the music and taking action. So some will remain in a job unlike some other airlines who are destined to fail in this current climate which of course has pulled the rug from underneath them.

Its just the way of the present world.

[ATC Watcher]

@ Loose rivets :

Philadelphia ~1919 is a horror story - and a mystery. It was linked to the flu but resembled the Plague of London. The case of one (or a few?) above, is not meaningful, but it's this kind of offshoot that we should be looking out for like hawks.

Did not know so you made me curious and I researched it . and I found this a the cause . very similar to the current situation in fact .But I do not think it is what you meant . Is there more behind those numbers ?

In the fall of 1918, the world came to a virtual standstill while Spanish influenza raged. In the United States, no other city suffered more than Philadelphia. The virus entered via the Philadelphia Navy Yard, arriving on a ship from Boston. As soldiers fell victim to the virus, city authorities believed the outbreak was under control and continued with plans to kick off the Fourth Liberty Loan drive with a parade September 28. After 200,000 people jammed the parade route, the virus exploded in the civilian population. For three months, hundreds of thousands of Philadelphians battled the virus, which, at the end, took over 13,000 lives. Schools, churches, saloons, and theaters closed, thirty-two emergency hospitals opened, and burying the dead became almost impossible. By November, the disease receded, and while the flu continued into the spring, its virulence decreased. As quickly and deadly as it struck Philadelphia, the influenza epidemic receded from collective memory and, largely forgotten, is barely mentioned in discussions of World War I.

[homonculus]

Philadelphia went ahead with the parade, St Louis cancelled it. Afterwards the Medical Officers compared the death rate in the two cities in a medical journal, concluding the parade was the sole cause.

Roll forward 100 years. Cheltenham race meeting and the Liverpool Madrid football match. Death rate from Covid19 around both venues higher than average

history teaches us about the future, but only if you want to learn

[neilki]

PHL

Originally Posted by homonculus

Philadelphia went ahead with the parade, St Louis cancelled it. Afterwards the Medical Officers compared the death rate in the two cities in a medical journal, concluding the parade was the sole cause.

Roll forward 100 years. Cheltenham race meeting and the Liverpool Madrid football match. Death rate from Covid19 around both venues higher than average

history teaches us about the future, but only if you want to learn

I'm based in Philly and drive down from New York City. Though the NY government has clearly been working very hard and the City is much more densely populated than Philadelphia; the death rates are starkly different. I think Philly remembered 1918 well and acted as such..
PHL:- 13k infections 550 deaths
NYC 157k infections 16,000 plus dead.
My front door in lower Manhattan to KPHL is 102 miles. (and New Jersey ...)

[Loose rivets]

Philadelphia was unusual because of the London plague-like speed with which people succumbed. This is what I'm getting at about needing to watch for sudden variations of symptoms.

[dingy737]

The novel corona virus became a pandemic primarily because of aviation, our industry, nothing else could provide it the ability to spread at highspeed, high volume and to every corner of the planet.

The world will be doubly cautious in providing it such carriage again. An epidemic anywhere is now an epidemic everywhere.

What then would allow countries to reopen their borders and airports, and resume the airline industry:

1. Vaccine. A vaccine would supposedly be the end game for Covid-19 and the Gold standard.
2. Test. Accurate, reliable, mobile, instant test. Results within 10 minutes, suitable for use prior to boarding.
3. Immunity. Medical consensus that individuals are immune after having covid-19. Individual health certificates to verify each passenger’s immunity status.
4. New Anti-viral medication that significantly reduces the severity of covid-19 risk and symptoms to that below currently accepted thresholds for communicable diseases. [ Regular Flu etc.].
5. Mandatory quarantine of 14 days at authorized centers for all incoming passengers.
6. Concluding that world isolation will become economically unsustainable, the effects of the cure becoming significantly worse than the effects of the Virus, forcing a shift to the Swedish approach; Protect and isolate the most vulnerable in society , allow free movement for all others while continuing social distancing, gloves, mask, washing of hands etc. [ a consensus between countries of travel]
7. If Covid-19 is truly considered a WAR of man versus virus, at some point, as in all previous World Wars, death becomes an acceptable collateral damage. It is what it is, and its ugly! [ Plan Z]

[MikeSnow]

Originally Posted by homonculus

A year ago if people had suggested taking affirmative action to kill 500,000 British citizens, they would have been sent to the funny farm.

I agree, it sounds crazy to me, even today. I've seen a previous comment comparing the COVID-19 response to how aviation safety is achieved, so I will make some comparisons between COVID 19 and MCAS on the 737 MAX. Yes, really

Before being grounded the 737 MAX had a fatality rate of 0.0004% per flight (2 crashes in 500,000 flights). Credible estimations for the COVID-19 IFR are somewhere between 0.5% and 1.0%. So being infected by COVID-19 could be least 1000 times more dangerous than flying on the MAX one time. And also harder to avoid.

With the estimated 500,000 COVID-19 deaths in UK, if the entire population gets infected, you would need to crash more than 2,500 737 MAXes full of people into the ground, just in the UK, to achieve a similar result. Only 387 MAXes have been delivered so far, so that wouldn't even work. Officially there are 21,678 COVID-19 deaths so far in the UK. That's equivalent to around 120 crashes of the 737 MAX so far. Just in the UK. Worldwide there are currently 217,571 COVID-19 deaths reported. That's equivalent to around 1,200 737 MAX crashes.

Assuming a 0.75% COVID-19 IFR, and the entire world population infected, you are looking at around 58 million deaths from COVID-19 worldwide. That's equivalent to about 320,000 737 MAX crashes. Yes, most of the "PAX" affected by COVID-19 will be old people. But it still sounds unacceptable to me, so "grounding" parts of the world economy to try preventing that makes sense in my opinion.

Looking at it in another way, the world gross product is only around 800 times higher that the yearly revenue of Boeing at its peak. And the MAX was grounded after just two crashes. We are at 1,200 COVID-19 equivalent "crashes" right now, so we are somewhere between the two MAX crashes in an equivalent timeline, except many parts of the world economy that were causing the risk have been grounded already, so we did better than the FAA did with the MAX to manage the risk. But some people are proposing to lift the COVID-19 "grounding", without eliminating most of the risk first. That sounds unwise to me.

[bringbackthe80s]

Spanish flu was spread by ships. Still, we keep building them.

Relax guys, it will go away. It’s just that right now no government has a clue of what’s going on.

[Bidule]

Originally Posted by dingy737

The novel corona virus became a pandemic primarily because of aviation, our industry, nothing else could provide it the ability to spread at highspeed, high volume and to every corner of the planet.

The world will be doubly cautious in providing it such carriage again. An epidemic anywhere is now an epidemic everywhere.

What then would allow countries to reopen their borders and airports, and resume the airline industry:

1. Vaccine. A vaccine would supposedly be the end game for Covid-19 and the Gold standard.
2. Test. Accurate, reliable, mobile, instant test. Results within 10 minutes, suitable for use prior to boarding.
3. Immunity. Medical consensus that individuals are immune after having covid-19. Individual health certificates to verify each passenger’s immunity status.
4. New Anti-viral medication that significantly reduces the severity of covid-19 risk and symptoms to that below currently accepted thresholds for communicable diseases. [ Regular Flu etc.].
5. Mandatory quarantine of 14 days at authorized centers for all incoming passengers.
6. Concluding that world isolation will become economically unsustainable, the effects of the cure becoming significantly worse than the effects of the Virus, forcing a shift to the Swedish approach; Protect and isolate the most vulnerable in society , allow free movement for all others while continuing social distancing, gloves, mask, washing of hands etc. [ a consensus between countries of travel]
7. If Covid-19 is truly considered a WAR of man versus virus, at some point, as in all previous World Wars, death becomes an acceptable collateral damage. It is what it is, and its ugly! [ Plan Z]

1-5: Same for trains, buses, cars?
Good luck to stop the riots!

.

[eimin]

Originally Posted by bringbackthe80s

Spanish flu was spread by ships. Still, we keep building them.

Relax guys, it will go away. It’s just that right now no government has a clue of what’s going on.

In my humble opinion, governments now have the toughest decision (yet to be made).
They either choose the card of life, meaning playing “Godlike” figure and saving everyone at any cost.
Or choose the card of economy.

Choosing the first makes everybody happy in the short term. Ethics are accomplished and we feel like we can win. But in this one, a bigger percentage of healthy individuals are being pushed into poverty.

Choosing the latter allows for a Swedish approach (not sure wether all countries will have the ability to behave like them). Protect the elderly and the people with higher risk profile. Allow free movement and improve the medical care system.

It seems to me that governments are reluctant to choose one. Accepting deaths, as previous members have mentioned, would allow for a clearer vision and planning.

Our super advanced societies made us believe we were not part of the natural cycle.

[Joe le Taxi]

Originally Posted by dingy737

Mandatory quarantine of 14 days at authorized centers for all incoming passengers

quite the opposite - Again - do this and the airlines and airports will remain almost completely inactive. It makes holiday travel and business travel impractical ... leaving what?

[ATC Watcher]

Bidule :

Good luck to stop the riots!

That is an aspect of the problem we have not discussed much yet. Looking at the news this morning the Lebanese situation is probably being closely watched by many politicians today . Lebanon had the effects of a disrupted economy starting a few months before everyone else,and now , this combined with the virus lockdown effect is starting to produce riots on the streets. They are now attacking and burning banks and ATMs. , meaning in a short while nobody will have access to cash anymore, an effective way to create even more chaos..
It would seem that the number of months a government can keep its citizens under economic duress before reactions on the streets start to get ugly is indeed in single digits .

[ZFT]

Originally Posted by ATC Watcher

Bidule :
That is an aspect of the problem we have not discussed much yet. Looking at the news this morning the Lebanese situation is probably being closely watched by many politicians today . Lebanon had the effects of a disrupted economy starting a few months before everyone else,and now , this combined with the virus lockdown effect is starting to produce riots on the streets. They are now attacking and burning banks and ATMs. , meaning in a short while nobody will have access to cash anymore, an effective way to create even more chaos..
It would seem that the number of months a government can keep its citizens under economic duress before reactions on the streets start to get ugly is indeed in single digits .

There’s another aspect that’s not discussed much and that’s the elder (older?) population.

Typically, 15%+ of the living depending upon ones definition of old.

Many of us already have existing death sentences and cannot afford to waste what life is remaining by sitting at home for even six months, let alone one year.

Again, typically this 15%+ have both disposable income and time and nothing to lose by going against the authoritarian rubbish that is being imposed.

Interesting times ahead I feel.

[Joe le Taxi]

There’s another aspect that’s not discussed much and that’s the elder (older?) population.

Well, I'd say it is discussed, but in the form of telling the elderly what's good for them. The older population I have met and read about, mostly say they want lockdown lifted so they can LIVE, see their friends and family, and accept the risks of covid.

So who are the vast c.90% who supposedly poll as wanting the lockdown to continue? (amazingly a poll today found almost a third would still want lockdown to continue, even if all the conditions for lifting were met)! I do suspect part of it amongst 21st century, cosseted working age populations (especially lucky ones still being paid for doing nothing), is due to a form of cowardice, and also an increasing sedentary laziness (who by so doing, are at increased risk by their own hand through obesity and poor fitness). Wind back a century and people would laugh at a threat with such a tiny mortality rate. The tunnel vision on number of deaths, is blinding politicians to the infinitely greater number of diminished LIVES, and angsty media is similarly blinding their populations.

[yoganmahew]

That's right old guys, it's all young people doing it to you. You should be free to infect anyone you want, you have money after all. And 'they' had better open the airports up so you can fly where you like. It's an infringement on your fundamental right to be OK. Lazy cowards the lot of them. Humbug.

[CaptainProp]

“FOSTER CITY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apr. 29, 2020-- Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) today announced topline results from the open-label, Phase 3 SIMPLE trial evaluating 5-day and 10-day dosing durations of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized patients with severe manifestations of COVID-19 disease.”

“The study demonstrates the potential for some patients to be treated with a 5-day regimen, which could significantly expand the number of patients who could be treated with our current supply of remdesivir. This is particularly important in the setting of a pandemic, to help hospitals and healthcare workers treat more patients in urgent need of care.”

https://www.gilead.com/news-and-pres...evere-covid-19

CP

[cats_five]

Originally Posted by CaptainProp

“FOSTER CITY, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Apr. 29, 2020-- Gilead Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq: GILD) today announced topline results from the open-label, Phase 3 SIMPLE trial evaluating 5-day and 10-day dosing durations of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized patients with severe manifestations of COVID-19 disease.”

“The study demonstrates the potential for some patients to be treated with a 5-day regimen, which could significantly expand the number of patients who could be treated with our current supply of remdesivir. This is particularly important in the setting of a pandemic, to help hospitals and healthcare workers treat more patients in urgent need of care.”

https://www.gilead.com/news-and-pres...evere-covid-19

CP

Before breaking out the champers, take a look at the false starts with Ebola treatment, for example:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...20-4?r=US&IR=T