Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?
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IMO taxpayer bailouts for businesses with too little in reserve to survive a downturn should generally not go to the holders of the debt that put the business in that position in the first place, and particularly not when that debt is offshore to avoid paying tax on the profits.
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You are making the assumption that the people who would have died anyway (normal death rate) will dilute the numbers of deaths purely attributable to Covid-19. Some, perhaps. Many of those already deceased had underlying health conditions but that increased their susceptibility to Covid-19 effects being terminal - you can't assume they would have died anyway. What is very clear is that there is a pandemic infection doing the rounds that kills up to 3% of those infected, and we still do not know exactly what proportion of the population is likely to become infected. As for dramatic net growth or otherwise in deaths, there is pretty good evidence from the Bergamo (Italy) local newspaper, where the obituary notices have gone from the normal 1.5 pages to 10 per day. I call that dramatic.
For all of us, it is worth re-reading Dr tbd's excellent post #109 - he is only a consultant anaesthetist so might know what he is talking about? Time to start taking this seriously.
For all of us, it is worth re-reading Dr tbd's excellent post #109 - he is only a consultant anaesthetist so might know what he is talking about? Time to start taking this seriously.
Denti's talking epidemiology
Covid19 spreads like the common cold; so, a strong probability just about all of us will be exposed to it over the next few years. Identified cases tend to be the severe ones, but at least that denominator (positive tests) is known. Silent infections are likely a much larger denominator that we don't really know at present.
As for a vaccine, they've been trying for many decades to develop one against a fellow coronavirus, the common cold.
Covid19 spreads like the common cold; so, a strong probability just about all of us will be exposed to it over the next few years. Identified cases tend to be the severe ones, but at least that denominator (positive tests) is known. Silent infections are likely a much larger denominator that we don't really know at present.
As for a vaccine, they've been trying for many decades to develop one against a fellow coronavirus, the common cold.
We recently booked a flight from UK to Singapore via Dubai to join a cruise ship. When we had to alter our arrangements to stop in Dubai we expected a refund on the Dubai to Singapore leg (business class). Oh no. The original flight was cancelled by the airline and we had to buy another ticket to DXB. This turned out to be £400pp dearer than UK to SIN. Fair enough, we accepted the law of supply and demand. BUT, When Richard Branson starts asking for £7.5bn to keep his airline afloat I say no way. Supply and demand is not a one way street and when the going gets tough don't ask for my (taxpayer) money. Sell an island Sir Richard and that goes for any other airline bleating about no pax!!
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U.S. airlines are going to the trough hoping for more than $50 billion.
From CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/us-a...-business.html
Airlines for America, the industry lobbying group formerly known as the Air Transport Association, looks like they could use a web page update:
From CNBC:
U.S. airlines are seeking government assistance of more than $50 billion, including a mix of direct aid and loan guarantees, as the industry reels from the coronavirus outbreak, a lobbying group that represents 10 U.S. passenger and cargo airlines said Monday.
The aid, if received, would be the industry’s first broad bailout since the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. It is also the clearest sign yet of the financial damage coronavirus and the draconian measures governments are taking to stop it are having on American businesses.
The aid, if received, would be the industry’s first broad bailout since the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. It is also the clearest sign yet of the financial damage coronavirus and the draconian measures governments are taking to stop it are having on American businesses.
Airlines for America, the industry lobbying group formerly known as the Air Transport Association, looks like they could use a web page update:
Why should the British tax payer help prop up airlines? Travel is a luxury, trying to save life is a priority.
As mentioned above, they objected to the Govenment (tax payer) assisting Fly Be, now they're squealing like stuck pigs, now they are in the pig poo, themselves.
As mentioned above, they objected to the Govenment (tax payer) assisting Fly Be, now they're squealing like stuck pigs, now they are in the pig poo, themselves.
Well if we went socialist we wouldn't get fat in good time so then bad times would not even be noticed as a change to the worker bees
I tried to get a separate thread for Airline bailouts going...but Mods had other ideas & combined 'em...so live with it...
PS: ...I'm over 75 so likely one o' the dead ones to come...so fit into what I thought this was originally about..
PS: ...I'm over 75 so likely one o' the dead ones to come...so fit into what I thought this was originally about..
Last edited by BlankBox; 16th Mar 2020 at 21:21.
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There have been a couple reports of arthritis drugs (Rheumatoid Arthritis?) being tried (with some success?) for treating Covid-19 cases. But drug names or types were not stated. Methotrexate? Leflunomide? The "Biologics?" If these drugs' sort of general immune system suppression function is working against Covid-19, that would suggest the "Cytokine Storm" explanation of this Coronovirus' lethality?
Hydroxychloroquine is an older anti-malarial, still used for certain destinations (most places it is no longer effective against malaria), I guess some pilots may have some. I'd keep hold of it if you do. I know that the UK has put it on export restriction as of a couple of days ago, this isn't a coincidence.
And yes, "Cytokine Storm" is a known lethal pathology for this disease.
I saw this tip on a Mercedes forum about panic buying hand sanitiser https://benzglobal.org/viewtopic.php?f=2&p=338#p338
Gib/Spanish border operating normally this morning.
EasyJet and BA flights departed today and both airlines scheduled flights to UK airports still listed up until this coming Saturday. https://www.gibraltarairport.gi/cont...ve-flight-info
Gib/Spanish border operating normally this morning.
EasyJet and BA flights departed today and both airlines scheduled flights to UK airports still listed up until this coming Saturday. https://www.gibraltarairport.gi/cont...ve-flight-info
This virus is the best thing that ever happened to the national carriers. Whereas previously governments were inclined to let them go bust or folded into transnational entities, now suddenly there is largess, courtesy of the taxpayer.
Of course the airlines have plenty of company in this de facto renationalization, now that the EU has shown its complete inability to ensure supranational rules apply to critical items such as protective medical gear.
The dream of 'one world' has faded with the recognition that it is dangerous to rely on a global supply chain for essentials such as medicines. Imho Brexit is only the beginning of a return to national self reliance, which will bring tariffs and trade barriers.
Of course there will be less global travel in this new environment, so the national carriers will prosper, but on a smaller scale.
Of course the airlines have plenty of company in this de facto renationalization, now that the EU has shown its complete inability to ensure supranational rules apply to critical items such as protective medical gear.
The dream of 'one world' has faded with the recognition that it is dangerous to rely on a global supply chain for essentials such as medicines. Imho Brexit is only the beginning of a return to national self reliance, which will bring tariffs and trade barriers.
Of course there will be less global travel in this new environment, so the national carriers will prosper, but on a smaller scale.
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Boeing and Trump administration in talks about short-term aid as aviation reels from coronavirus
So it seems that someone is creating a link between the MAX problems (caused by Boeing?) and the virus. Hmmmm Seems to me that the Boeing problems are 99% Max and 1% virus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coro...-term-aid.html
Boeing and Trump administration in talks about short-term aid as aviation reels from coronavirus
So it seems that someone is creating a link between the MAX problems (caused by Boeing?) and the virus. Hmmmm Seems to me that the Boeing problems are 99% Max and 1% virus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coro...-term-aid.html
So it seems that someone is creating a link between the MAX problems (caused by Boeing?) and the virus. Hmmmm Seems to me that the Boeing problems are 99% Max and 1% virus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coro...-term-aid.html
This virus is the best thing that ever happened to the national carriers. Whereas previously governments were inclined to let them go bust or folded into transnational entities, now suddenly there is largess, courtesy of the taxpayer.
Of course the airlines have plenty of company in this de facto renationalization, now that the EU has shown its complete inability to ensure supranational rules apply to critical items such as protective medical gear.
The dream of 'one world' has faded with the recognition that it is dangerous to rely on a global supply chain for essentials such as medicines. Imho Brexit is only the beginning of a return to national self reliance, which will bring tariffs and trade barriers.
Of course there will be less global travel in this new environment, so the national carriers will prosper, but on a smaller scale.
Of course the airlines have plenty of company in this de facto renationalization, now that the EU has shown its complete inability to ensure supranational rules apply to critical items such as protective medical gear.
The dream of 'one world' has faded with the recognition that it is dangerous to rely on a global supply chain for essentials such as medicines. Imho Brexit is only the beginning of a return to national self reliance, which will bring tariffs and trade barriers.
Of course there will be less global travel in this new environment, so the national carriers will prosper, but on a smaller scale.
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SLF here, but probably with enough miles under my belt to have paid several salaries over the years.
I took two things from the OP (although both might not have been included:
The first is the risk to our health - and that risk seems global.
The second is the risk to livelihoods in the aviation industry.
I don't feel that there is anything wrong with addressing both. Of course there is a much bigger picture involved, but surely you professionals have the right to also consider the potential fallout when it comes knocking on your door with a message for you personally. That the individual knocking isn't carrying a scythe, but rather a P45 or its equivalent, doesn't mitigate the direct impact.
You people carry us hither and thither. Sometimes you may have to dig deep into your bank of skills in order to get us where we want to be.
I hope you all survive this with health intact and a career in place. The best of luck to all.
I took two things from the OP (although both might not have been included:
The first is the risk to our health - and that risk seems global.
The second is the risk to livelihoods in the aviation industry.
I don't feel that there is anything wrong with addressing both. Of course there is a much bigger picture involved, but surely you professionals have the right to also consider the potential fallout when it comes knocking on your door with a message for you personally. That the individual knocking isn't carrying a scythe, but rather a P45 or its equivalent, doesn't mitigate the direct impact.
You people carry us hither and thither. Sometimes you may have to dig deep into your bank of skills in order to get us where we want to be.
I hope you all survive this with health intact and a career in place. The best of luck to all.