Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?
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And note that Germans do some creative statistics there.
If you had asthma and got COVID19 and then died - they count you as asthma death.
So reality is muuuch worse there.
&
If you had asthma and got COVID19 and then died - they count you as asthma death.
So reality is muuuch worse there.
&
But unfortunately what you have failed to factor in is just how infectious Covid-19 is. With Western European countries such as Germany now saying - based on their best available scientific advice - that 70% or more of their population may get infected this year it doesn't take a maths genius to work out that in Germany this would mean a 0.5% fatality rate would result in 400,000 deaths.
Like aviation that keeps on growing, the greater the population at risk, the greater the number affected by a single cause. What is needed is the relative contribution of a single cause over a fixed period of time, compared to the basic underlying risk of dying from any cause, known or unknown.
Jet Blast
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Are there any stats on the numbers already well?
The last graph (outcome of cases) is compelling.
According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.
According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.
Time to stop panicking.
Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.
According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.
Time to stop panicking.
Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.
Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too...
Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.
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1% is the going rate - UK CMO
Take a look at the facts about both topics
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In responce to the question "Who will still be here in 6 months". My answer,...Most of us...But with almost eight billion humans on this world the numbers will still be huge.
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https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
I'm not one of those that say "it's just a flu". However, the mortality rate is most likely nowhere near as high as you suggest. Your numbers are only based on known infections. It is fair to assume that there are lot's more unknown infections which will bring down the mortality rate a lot. My guess based on everything I have read is to not more than 1%
Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.
Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...-fatality-rate
Yeah, the CMO says no problem-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ave-it-says-pm
Facts on that other matter
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-than-in-1990s
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But 1% is WAY lowball
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...-fatality-rate
Yeah, the CMO says no problem-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ave-it-says-pm
Facts on that other matter
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-than-in-1990s
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...-fatality-rate
Yeah, the CMO says no problem-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ave-it-says-pm
Facts on that other matter
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-than-in-1990s
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I'm not one of those that say "it's just a flu". However, the mortality rate is most likely nowhere near as high as you suggest. Your numbers are only based on known infections. It is fair to assume that there are lot's more unknown infections which will bring down the mortality rate a lot. My guess based on everything I have read is to not more than 1%
Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.
Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.
Wrong: My "guess" based on expert opinion I have read. I'm just making their bets guess my best guess. We do know the number of deaths but we (including the experts) can only guess the number of those infected. It's almost certain that many more people are invected but have not been tested.
The U.K. CMO is saying that between 5000 to 10000 people in the IK have the virus, very few are confirmed cases. Like other countries the confirmed cases are the “tip of the iceberg”. So working on that premiss the death rate is about .7%.
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Once you are confirmed, the probability of dying is 3.4% (or whatever the number currently is), because you are now in the tested cohort, and we know the mortality rate of the tested cohort.
Wrong: My "guess" based on expert opinion I have read. I'm just making their bets guess my best guess. We do know the number of deaths but we (including the experts) can only guess the number of those infected. It's almost certain that many more people are invected but have not been tested.
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In 2017, there were 56 million deaths globally
World population is approximately 7.7 billion. The worst case infection rate has been quoted as 80% which would give 6.16 billion. If the mortality rate of 1% is correct then 61.6 million extra deaths.
I wish I hadn't looked now.
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