Growing Pilot Shortage
Join Date: Jun 2000
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One asks what is the motivation behind crewless whatever form of transport. Mass transport short journey trains, e.g. STN terminal to stands, Hong Kong airport transport system etc. Cost saving and drivers deemed unnecessary. Safety improvements not really an issue. Driverless cars? No idea really. Aircraft, IMHO, is purely cost saving driven. There is no real increase in safety for the customer. It is the CEO's, who want to boost profits and all the consequential personal benefits that might be interested. However, if they had to fund the technological development and risks involved I doubt they'd be so enthusiastic. And the first airline that has a pilotless crash will collapse & sink faster than the Titanic.
Join Date: Jul 2008
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I think it will go from two pilots to one pilot and then to zero pilots. When it goes to one pilot, that pilot will be simply supervising the automation, perhaps only intervening under unusual circumstances. I don't think I'll see zero pilots in my lifetime. I think the technology exists (theoretically) for zero pilots, but I think there will be a steep learning curve along with the requirement (of time and money) to "retool" aviation infrastructure.
As far as the steep learning curve goes, I think there would be an increase in hull losses compared to what we have now if we went straight from two pilots to zero pilots as we figured out this whole pilot-less airliner thing. I think the public would be perfectly happy to fly on a zero-pilot aircraft initially, especially when they get to save $1 on their ticket. However, I think after a hull loss or two due to the "zero pilot learning curve," most would be scared off. That's why the airline industry has to get the zero pilot airliner 100% right from the get-go. I don't think they'll get it 100% right jumping from two pilots to zero- again at least not in my lifetime.
As far as the steep learning curve goes, I think there would be an increase in hull losses compared to what we have now if we went straight from two pilots to zero pilots as we figured out this whole pilot-less airliner thing. I think the public would be perfectly happy to fly on a zero-pilot aircraft initially, especially when they get to save $1 on their ticket. However, I think after a hull loss or two due to the "zero pilot learning curve," most would be scared off. That's why the airline industry has to get the zero pilot airliner 100% right from the get-go. I don't think they'll get it 100% right jumping from two pilots to zero- again at least not in my lifetime.
I can’t believe that any sane flight crew could discuss pilotless commercial flights without their tongue firmly pressed against their cheek.
People, slf would simply not entertain a flight aboard such a craft, they wouldn’t even if they were paid huge amounts of money. My god it takes plenty of passengers a few swift drinks to even get on board. It’s just totally unreal that one can look at a potential pilot shortage and make sone sort of case for pilotless aircraft. I am astounded by such posts.
New Year resolution, not to react to bird brain posts.
People, slf would simply not entertain a flight aboard such a craft, they wouldn’t even if they were paid huge amounts of money. My god it takes plenty of passengers a few swift drinks to even get on board. It’s just totally unreal that one can look at a potential pilot shortage and make sone sort of case for pilotless aircraft. I am astounded by such posts.
New Year resolution, not to react to bird brain posts.
Join Date: Feb 2001
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A few educational articles on the first pages of big newspapers telling general public that absolute majority of accidents are caused by pilot errors and in a few weeks you will be able to command a premium for the flight on pilotless aircraft.
Join Date: Jun 2007
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I doubt that somehow. What isn't charted or quantified with that statistic you quote is how many accidents have been averted due to human intervention. I would suggest the figure is far higher than the number actually caused by humans.
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The people who will gain will be the ones setting the agenda - those against change will be branded as old, stupid, paranoid,full of self-interest, communists, trying to save their VAST salaries for only a few hours work a month etc etc
Think Fox or the Murdoch Press here
Think Fox or the Murdoch Press here
I REALLY SHOULDN'T BE HERE
I was in Frankfurt a while ago and a fox crossed the runway just as we were cleared to takeoff. I regularly encounter cumulus formations which have no radar return but undoubtedly are severely turbulent. Having been anti-iced and taxied out in snow I can make a call as to whether the aircraft needs further treatment. AI will surely be able to fly the aircraft from A to B but it will need lots of as-of-yet unrealised sensors to operate the aircraft safely in the operational environment. I am not worriedly about my job yet.
There will never be a pilot "shortage" now or future until there is a restriction of supply. Take barristers in the UK for example (not baristas for our non British contributors) they are still doing very well aren't they? Demand changes nothing if there is sufficient supply. The demise of professional piloting as a career is inexorably linked to the expansion of the so called training industry.
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Increasingly and amid the deafening enthusiasm from the tech sector, commentators are beginning to question whether genuinely driverless cars are a possibility anytime in the foreseeable future. There are still huge unsolved issues around safety, reliability, legality, insurability etc. The press is getting well ahead of itself because the stories make for good reading. My point being, we are probably a long way away from truly driverless cars never mind pilotless aircraft.
We should all be able to agree that eventually, in X many years, pilotless commercial aircraft will be a reality. That X is, in my opinion, a very large number at the moment.
We should all be able to agree that eventually, in X many years, pilotless commercial aircraft will be a reality. That X is, in my opinion, a very large number at the moment.
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I give it 20 years to see the mainstream pilotless passenger aircraft in service. With half of pilot jobs to be cut in between as a transition step to an assisted automatics.
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20 years, really? Today's news about Intel chips having a fundamental hardware security flaw that appears to be un-patchable in software or firmware. The only solution is to reduce performance.
It appears that a second flaw has emerged that affects virtually every single CPU that has been on the market for decades is vulnerable and cannot be fixed.
There has to be fundamental redesigned, and it could take a significant period of time to cycle more secure hardware into the system. It is just a question of time before this is exploited in the wild.
At least with humans, our "bugs" are somewhat understood, and generally not a lot of new catastrophic failure modes appear to remain undiscovered after 10,000 years of recorded testing. We have evolved systems that cope with our know limitations. When these flaws become exposed, they generally isolated to a single pilot, or at worse can affect one crew at a time.
With networked computer systems, entire systems can be rendered untrustworthy, degraded or worthless with the discovery of a latent design flaws, as may be the case with these bugs. Is this the kind of risk management we want to save a small percentage of the ticket price?
With complex pieces of hardware or software, it can be decades before detection of a show stopping fundamental flaw, as this one (Spectre) may well be. Given that any unmanned or single pilot RPT autonomous type aircraft will have to have a communication channel, it will also be vulnerable to other, as yet undiscovered flaws (and there will be).
It appears that a second flaw has emerged that affects virtually every single CPU that has been on the market for decades is vulnerable and cannot be fixed.
There has to be fundamental redesigned, and it could take a significant period of time to cycle more secure hardware into the system. It is just a question of time before this is exploited in the wild.
At least with humans, our "bugs" are somewhat understood, and generally not a lot of new catastrophic failure modes appear to remain undiscovered after 10,000 years of recorded testing. We have evolved systems that cope with our know limitations. When these flaws become exposed, they generally isolated to a single pilot, or at worse can affect one crew at a time.
With networked computer systems, entire systems can be rendered untrustworthy, degraded or worthless with the discovery of a latent design flaws, as may be the case with these bugs. Is this the kind of risk management we want to save a small percentage of the ticket price?
With complex pieces of hardware or software, it can be decades before detection of a show stopping fundamental flaw, as this one (Spectre) may well be. Given that any unmanned or single pilot RPT autonomous type aircraft will have to have a communication channel, it will also be vulnerable to other, as yet undiscovered flaws (and there will be).
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We have evolved systems that cope with our know limitations.
With networked computer systems, entire systems can be rendered untrustworthy, degraded or worthless with the discovery of a latent design flaws, as may be the case with these bugs. Is this the kind of risk management we want to save a small percentage of the ticket price?
Reduced crew and single pilot ops are much more likely in the next 20years. I know my operator is actively working with Airbus on this, with a sim already functional. Apparently they are working on a 10 year until production time frame.
It still throws up issues, like how will future pilots be trained, how will these aircraft work alongside conventional aircraft, how does the role of a captain get re defined. But I guess that’s what they are mainly working on, considering aircraft are almost at the autonomous stage any way.
This will bring a reduction in crew and a huge cost saving, particularly in long haul heavy crew ops.
My prediction is in 20 years we will still be required but the job description will have changed dramatically. The chances of touching the controls reduced even further and the job will become essentially a monitoring monkey. This will then pave the way for ully autonomous, alowing future tech the time to be developed.
It still throws up issues, like how will future pilots be trained, how will these aircraft work alongside conventional aircraft, how does the role of a captain get re defined. But I guess that’s what they are mainly working on, considering aircraft are almost at the autonomous stage any way.
This will bring a reduction in crew and a huge cost saving, particularly in long haul heavy crew ops.
My prediction is in 20 years we will still be required but the job description will have changed dramatically. The chances of touching the controls reduced even further and the job will become essentially a monitoring monkey. This will then pave the way for ully autonomous, alowing future tech the time to be developed.
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Heard the CEO of a sizable EU airline recently stating that a move to single-pilot CAT operations should be pushed hard and achieved within the next 20 years. But back to the original question: is there really a shortage now? I'm told some of the larger EU schools are now struggling to place grads and that there's been an erosion in quality of candidates?
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Heard the CEO of a sizable EU airline recently stating that a move to single-pilot CAT operations should be pushed hard and achieved within the next 20 years. But back to the original question: is there really a shortage now? I'm told some of the larger EU schools are now struggling to place grads and that there's been an erosion in quality of candidates?
Ladies and Gentlemen good morning this is your Captain speaking for your flight to .. I’ve done 50 sectors and just left flight school but as long as the wind isn’t above 20 knots on landing we’ll be fine. 😩
https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...-of-innovation
"Forward X was one of several companies to have built a robotic suitcase that follows the owner around the airport so he or she doesn’t have the inconvenience of holding a handle. It’s a neat idea in theory, but in demos the prototype was slow and inconsistent in its ability to follow its owner."
Sounds like the AI equipped suitcase currently has less ability to follow something reliably than a dumb airliner can follow an ILS Loc/Glide...........but I'm sure the response will still be that a solution is almost upon us and therefore automated airliners are still "just around the corner."............
"Forward X was one of several companies to have built a robotic suitcase that follows the owner around the airport so he or she doesn’t have the inconvenience of holding a handle. It’s a neat idea in theory, but in demos the prototype was slow and inconsistent in its ability to follow its owner."
Sounds like the AI equipped suitcase currently has less ability to follow something reliably than a dumb airliner can follow an ILS Loc/Glide...........but I'm sure the response will still be that a solution is almost upon us and therefore automated airliners are still "just around the corner."............