Interesting Take on Pilot Demand - Flight international Comment
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I've been in this business for more than 25 years and like most with the same or more experience I've heard this song many times before.
In the last 10 years in Europe, terms and conditions for pilots have gotten less and less attractive, this is in my opinion due to a surplus of pilots that never seems to end.
Training organizations are putting these stories out there to attract naive and optimistic young people to spend a fortune training for a dream that still is alive amongst many, despite the fact that in many cases it turns out to be a nightmare. The schools tell the success stories, bragging about all the companies their graduates are working for, nothing is told about the masses that failed to secure a job.
Airlines long ago discovered that they do not have to pay new candidates much to attract good people with a dream.
Some airlines may have gone too far, and now experience a shortage of qualified people willing to take a
contract, but all they have to do is improve the conditions slightly and the problem will be solved.
I still have some hope that the shortage might materialize, but so far I cannot see anything indicating this to happen in the near future.
In the last 10 years in Europe, terms and conditions for pilots have gotten less and less attractive, this is in my opinion due to a surplus of pilots that never seems to end.
Training organizations are putting these stories out there to attract naive and optimistic young people to spend a fortune training for a dream that still is alive amongst many, despite the fact that in many cases it turns out to be a nightmare. The schools tell the success stories, bragging about all the companies their graduates are working for, nothing is told about the masses that failed to secure a job.
Airlines long ago discovered that they do not have to pay new candidates much to attract good people with a dream.
Some airlines may have gone too far, and now experience a shortage of qualified people willing to take a
contract, but all they have to do is improve the conditions slightly and the problem will be solved. I still have some hope that the shortage might materialize, but so far I cannot see anything indicating this to happen in the near future.
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Probably Europe Airlines will have to increase payment if not the majority of qualifed pilots flying around the world will never accept their rubish contracts and prefer stay far but well paid
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There is no shortage of pilots. I have been flying since 1973 and heard that rumor several time
but the working condition have been reduced every year
Talking about Japan it is sad to say that in the low cost airlines,it is Skymark which have the best working condition but still, they have reduced them since 2004
Peach,Vanilla, Jetstar Japan have difficulty to find pilots. ?? why. ?? their accomodation, travelling, basic salary, ect ect is even less than Skymark. Everybody want experience pilots but they d ont want to pay for it
Who is interested to spend 6 months on training at a reduced salary, whitout going home at least one time, and at the end, having a Sim test with the crasy JCAB, and after your OJT having another check with JCAB
No there is no shortage of pilot, since the age restriction is still at 60 in China and Vietnam
and both of those. countries are looking for experience pilots all the time
The working condition did not change since at least 10 years in Vietnam, Japan, Korea
Same salary, same holliday
but the working condition have been reduced every year
Talking about Japan it is sad to say that in the low cost airlines,it is Skymark which have the best working condition but still, they have reduced them since 2004
Peach,Vanilla, Jetstar Japan have difficulty to find pilots. ?? why. ?? their accomodation, travelling, basic salary, ect ect is even less than Skymark. Everybody want experience pilots but they d ont want to pay for it
Who is interested to spend 6 months on training at a reduced salary, whitout going home at least one time, and at the end, having a Sim test with the crasy JCAB, and after your OJT having another check with JCAB
No there is no shortage of pilot, since the age restriction is still at 60 in China and Vietnam
and both of those. countries are looking for experience pilots all the time
The working condition did not change since at least 10 years in Vietnam, Japan, Korea
Same salary, same holliday
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Everybody want experience pilots but they do not want to pay for it
Therein lies the rub. To kick start the rapid expansion seen over the past 20 years, mostly via the LoCo's, the seat price had to be cut to the bone. RYR even had 'loss-leaders' for €1. People became used to it. The same with cheap food and cheap clothing. Eventually enough people became as used to flying away for a couple of days as they were driving to the coast or other relaxation spots. The businesses had to grow to survive. Every country wanted its LoCo. What could not happen is for the price to rise to a more realistic level otherwise the pax would stay at home. It's a fine line. If you believe MOL, which I didn't, he trumpeted that even a €2-5 departure tax in NL or DE would be enough to kill his pax figures. (the fact that he added much more to his own extras, and it had no effect tells the truth). What has also happened is that the majors have reduced their prices and now are very competitive with LoCo's, when you pay the bottom line.
Thus there is no way salaries can rise to an honest pre-LoCo level. Even just taking into account inflation over the past 15 years, never mind the increase in productivity, the package has been driven down significantly: no pay rises, no pension, own training costs, own uniform costs, no work no pay = no sick pay & no holiday pay = no guaranteed income. To restore even these basic elements of a respectable salary package would see quite a price hike; to include the lost inflation as well would deter pax from their leisure breaks.
It could be that the shortage of pilots will not cause just cancellations, but also closures. Then the number of seats available will reduce to those who can pay the higher prices. You see higher prices already on certain routes where there is a monopoly. The carrier teases the market for maximum yield; i.e. the maximum price they can charge without putting off all but the essential pax. With only one carrier they can do this. If some carriers fail, due lack of pilots, then the same effect will come into play. It will take quite a while, but it could happen.
How are SWA, the daddy of it all, doing? They are reputed to have ace T's & C's. What about their prices over the past few years? Are they still the datum? If so, how? Less greed or better run?
Therein lies the rub. To kick start the rapid expansion seen over the past 20 years, mostly via the LoCo's, the seat price had to be cut to the bone. RYR even had 'loss-leaders' for €1. People became used to it. The same with cheap food and cheap clothing. Eventually enough people became as used to flying away for a couple of days as they were driving to the coast or other relaxation spots. The businesses had to grow to survive. Every country wanted its LoCo. What could not happen is for the price to rise to a more realistic level otherwise the pax would stay at home. It's a fine line. If you believe MOL, which I didn't, he trumpeted that even a €2-5 departure tax in NL or DE would be enough to kill his pax figures. (the fact that he added much more to his own extras, and it had no effect tells the truth). What has also happened is that the majors have reduced their prices and now are very competitive with LoCo's, when you pay the bottom line.
Thus there is no way salaries can rise to an honest pre-LoCo level. Even just taking into account inflation over the past 15 years, never mind the increase in productivity, the package has been driven down significantly: no pay rises, no pension, own training costs, own uniform costs, no work no pay = no sick pay & no holiday pay = no guaranteed income. To restore even these basic elements of a respectable salary package would see quite a price hike; to include the lost inflation as well would deter pax from their leisure breaks.
It could be that the shortage of pilots will not cause just cancellations, but also closures. Then the number of seats available will reduce to those who can pay the higher prices. You see higher prices already on certain routes where there is a monopoly. The carrier teases the market for maximum yield; i.e. the maximum price they can charge without putting off all but the essential pax. With only one carrier they can do this. If some carriers fail, due lack of pilots, then the same effect will come into play. It will take quite a while, but it could happen.
How are SWA, the daddy of it all, doing? They are reputed to have ace T's & C's. What about their prices over the past few years? Are they still the datum? If so, how? Less greed or better run?
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A friend I used to fly the DC3 with joined Southwest. He called me about two years later to tell me he was left seat..."I fly the plane and the company pours buckets of money on me, hahaha " which was pretty outstanding to hear. That was 20 years ago and he´s happier than ever.
So, what MOL and his cronies have done to destroy the sector is, as said, just piss poor planning combined with new rich arrogance.
So, what MOL and his cronies have done to destroy the sector is, as said, just piss poor planning combined with new rich arrogance.
Nemo Me Impune Lacessit
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Denti - What you say is probably true of pilots who have done an approved course of training at a recognised training establishment, cadet schemes, paid for by the airline, are particularly valued in 'The Market'. The hard part will be getting any hours/age limitations, ( called 'warranties' in the insurance world), removed from existing air carriers policies and they apply to all US carriers now. Getting a warranty removed from a policy is the hard part, believe me, in my short experience in the London market, many moons ago, I have tried!
Derfred - Hope you are right. When a major carrier announces redundancies historically 10% will be from the flight deck, that rule of thumb meant that 300 was on the 'good' side. What I heard was that about 200 would be voluntary or natural and 100 would be given notice, nothing to do with unsubstantiated gossip!
Derfred - Hope you are right. When a major carrier announces redundancies historically 10% will be from the flight deck, that rule of thumb meant that 300 was on the 'good' side. What I heard was that about 200 would be voluntary or natural and 100 would be given notice, nothing to do with unsubstantiated gossip!
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...the thing that irks me is that when you hear about places like peach/vanilla looking/crying for pilots and cancelling flights, you send them a cv (resume')... they simply reply "sorry sir , you need 500 sic time in type" i have the b737/a320 rating but no experience. its a catch 22. why dont they use their heads and have me fly in the jump seat 50 or 100 hundred hours then to right seat !? i have offered them that but they refuse. i dont feel the least pity or sorry for them ! and btw , i would never p2f.
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Pilot Shortage ?
There is no pilot shortage in Europe !!
There is no pilot shortage in Europe !!
In my view the big training schools are half the problem, they sell the 'dream' to anyone with the cash, then as the Flight International article says
'A fair proportion of those remaining will not pass muster' So only the top few get placed, the rest join the unemployed, and the 'lucky few' get to PTF or fly for nothing !
There will never be a select by ability programme, as long as the candidates wallet is part of the equation, as we all know accountants rule aviation, and nothing is about to change that.
Aside from that, there are vast numbers of unemployed pilots, many with substantial experience. But most airlines now only want 200hr cadets who have sold their financial sole, and of course there is a massive over supply of them!
I may sound a little cynical, but I'm near the end of my career, and to have watched the way its all changed is rather sad.
Good luck if your just starting out !
There is no pilot shortage in Europe !!
In my view the big training schools are half the problem, they sell the 'dream' to anyone with the cash, then as the Flight International article says
'A fair proportion of those remaining will not pass muster' So only the top few get placed, the rest join the unemployed, and the 'lucky few' get to PTF or fly for nothing !
There will never be a select by ability programme, as long as the candidates wallet is part of the equation, as we all know accountants rule aviation, and nothing is about to change that.
Aside from that, there are vast numbers of unemployed pilots, many with substantial experience. But most airlines now only want 200hr cadets who have sold their financial sole, and of course there is a massive over supply of them!
I may sound a little cynical, but I'm near the end of my career, and to have watched the way its all changed is rather sad.
Good luck if your just starting out !
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As far as I can see there's no shortage of experienced F/Os with proven experience and the right type ratings; however, the critical change in the last 7 years is that no-one wants them. The future is all about cheap trainees who have paid for their training and will work on highly reduced terms and conditions. There's no shortage of those either.
The result of all of that is there is virtually no career left; it's curtains if you are an F/O and are out of work for more than 12 months. I've half a mind to cancel my Flight subscription after I read that recent gibberish.
The result of all of that is there is virtually no career left; it's curtains if you are an F/O and are out of work for more than 12 months. I've half a mind to cancel my Flight subscription after I read that recent gibberish.
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Airlines don't want experience they want cheap.
Did anyone see the article on BBC Watchdog the other night? Two plane loads of TCX pax, about 350 people,were delayed 37 hours as they did not have any pilots to fly the ac at Bristol.
Each pax was put up in a hotel and given £450 compen. An expensive error from crewing.
Did anyone see the article on BBC Watchdog the other night? Two plane loads of TCX pax, about 350 people,were delayed 37 hours as they did not have any pilots to fly the ac at Bristol.
Each pax was put up in a hotel and given £450 compen. An expensive error from crewing.
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Read the letters page in Flight this week !
The truth will out when industry journals start doing proper journalism!
One uk school alone pumps another 2000 low houred under nourished and broke cadets into the market every year. Are there 2000 jobs out there?
The real shortage is AIRLINE INVESTMENT. Just look at the ads for 5000h p1 on exact airframe type and subdivision! Even latest RYR ad requires significant part 25 heavy time.
So the glut of cadets get overlooked. The experienced military, TP, regional jet pilots all overlooked. Even the BA MPL scheme will cost successful candidayes a huge amount of interest payments.
Financial section of Times said airfares have dropped 20% in real terms past decade due to this madness.
One uk school alone pumps another 2000 low houred under nourished and broke cadets into the market every year. Are there 2000 jobs out there?
The real shortage is AIRLINE INVESTMENT. Just look at the ads for 5000h p1 on exact airframe type and subdivision! Even latest RYR ad requires significant part 25 heavy time.
So the glut of cadets get overlooked. The experienced military, TP, regional jet pilots all overlooked. Even the BA MPL scheme will cost successful candidayes a huge amount of interest payments.
Financial section of Times said airfares have dropped 20% in real terms past decade due to this madness.
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There is a shortage within the airlines, because they are greedy and want to keep costs down.
Bean counters have calculated that they can keep costs down, by not hiring more then the minimum crew at bases around Europe.
But when people leave, which I know is a big problem for loads of LoCo's now, they start crying that pilots are greedy and unfair, and start having to cancel flights, which cost the company much more than offering crews proper conditions.
If you treat people like sh..., how can they in their twisted logic expect any loyalty in return?
What goes around, comes around, and I predict within the next 6 - 12 months, there will be a few companies with massive pilot shortage, and it might end up costing them more then they think they are saving!
I just say good riddance they have created their nest, either change or accept million losses when hundreds of flights start getting cancelled!
Bean counters have calculated that they can keep costs down, by not hiring more then the minimum crew at bases around Europe.
But when people leave, which I know is a big problem for loads of LoCo's now, they start crying that pilots are greedy and unfair, and start having to cancel flights, which cost the company much more than offering crews proper conditions.
If you treat people like sh..., how can they in their twisted logic expect any loyalty in return?
What goes around, comes around, and I predict within the next 6 - 12 months, there will be a few companies with massive pilot shortage, and it might end up costing them more then they think they are saving!
I just say good riddance they have created their nest, either change or accept million losses when hundreds of flights start getting cancelled!
Back in the 1960s there were no low cost airlines therefore the legacies had to recruit from the military and general aviation or train cadets, with the inherent lead time and training costs involved.
These days they can simply strip the likes of Ryanair and Easyjet of well qualified and highly suitable people with low training costs and little lead time involved.
There will be no pilot shortage in BA but the others are a different matter.
These days they can simply strip the likes of Ryanair and Easyjet of well qualified and highly suitable people with low training costs and little lead time involved.
There will be no pilot shortage in BA but the others are a different matter.
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For the shortage in Japan it is entirely their own fault. Many local pilots are very unfriendly towards expats making it hard to live and work. They actually work against their management who want to supply their workforce with foreigners offering quite good money. As a result many expats get feed up and leave, if they even get started.
Last edited by flyhigh85; 11th Jun 2014 at 09:52.
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Just to concur, there is a shortage in the States of pilots with 1500 hrs TT - and that will sort itself out pretty quickly. There is also a shortage of type-rated and available A320 and B737NG captains who are willing to re-locate to China, Vietnam etc. There is absolutely no shortage whatsoever of low-houred wannabes (which we all one were) in Europe. There are literally hundreds of unemployed pilots with very low hours and experience, most of whom will never get a commercial job. Training providers have sold a lie that the foolish and gullible just drink up like it was their last sip. That will never change and therefore there will never be a pilot shortage.
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Surely this is Darwinism at work?
I would like to think that I would never have been as stupid as the current crop of gullible idiots entering the industry with NO MARKETABLE EXPERIENCE.
I know everyone has to start somewhere, but buying a frozen ATPL and a jet rating with only 200 hours is not it. Just for the record, yes, I did start flying at 17 too, but I worked my way up the ladder. Those were the good old days!
I would like to think that I would never have been as stupid as the current crop of gullible idiots entering the industry with NO MARKETABLE EXPERIENCE.
I know everyone has to start somewhere, but buying a frozen ATPL and a jet rating with only 200 hours is not it. Just for the record, yes, I did start flying at 17 too, but I worked my way up the ladder. Those were the good old days!