British Airways Hold Pool News
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Bugspeed,
I hope you can share your 'reliable' source with us as the numbers you quote for surplus aren't quite correct and the current position of the company in the current climate is still under scrutiny by Price Waterhouse Coopers.
As to offsetting surplus pilots then the pilots targeted under VR are not for that purpose. Each department has been given specific forward looking cost cutting measures and the VR target enables BA/BALPA to negotiate productivity issues based around the financial gains that VR would bring as those issues affect all remaining pilots. The company can, currently, absorb the pilot surplus numbers without a problem. The numbers only start to become a problem if Jets need parking up over the winter at 12 crews a jet.
Relaxing the 80/20 rule will allow the company to park up jets over the winter which will lead to a reduced flying program which will lead to reduced monthly allowances and hence impact all of the current pilots.
If there is a 'pick up' and when it comes then BA should hopefully be in a position to benefit. What the T's & C's will be of new pilot contracts or even current pilot contracts will be remain, at the moment, very fluid.
And yes, I agree with Tandem Rotor, it is a time for gloomy news as the pain will be shared by all and, at the moment, none of us has sight of how deep the axe will bite.
I hope you can share your 'reliable' source with us as the numbers you quote for surplus aren't quite correct and the current position of the company in the current climate is still under scrutiny by Price Waterhouse Coopers.
As to offsetting surplus pilots then the pilots targeted under VR are not for that purpose. Each department has been given specific forward looking cost cutting measures and the VR target enables BA/BALPA to negotiate productivity issues based around the financial gains that VR would bring as those issues affect all remaining pilots. The company can, currently, absorb the pilot surplus numbers without a problem. The numbers only start to become a problem if Jets need parking up over the winter at 12 crews a jet.
Relaxing the 80/20 rule will allow the company to park up jets over the winter which will lead to a reduced flying program which will lead to reduced monthly allowances and hence impact all of the current pilots.
If there is a 'pick up' and when it comes then BA should hopefully be in a position to benefit. What the T's & C's will be of new pilot contracts or even current pilot contracts will be remain, at the moment, very fluid.
And yes, I agree with Tandem Rotor, it is a time for gloomy news as the pain will be shared by all and, at the moment, none of us has sight of how deep the axe will bite.
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In other words I think they hope VR to solve the current surplus.
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BugSpeed
No it most definitely is not.
Shame on me! There was me thinking I was simply giving a factual report on how my colleagues and I had just seen the trivial issue of Compulsory Redundancy come one step closer!
How dare I paint 'such a gloomy picture' for the poor sensitive Darlings in 'the pool'!
Since you have a 'reliable source' I shall leave it to you to proclaim the good news when it comes.
How long do you think it will be?
Surely the whole reason for BA management using VR, unpaid leave etc is to alleviate the surplus problem by targeting the top 500
I though on the other hand dont think you need to paint quite such a gloomy picture for those currently swimming in the pool.
How dare I paint 'such a gloomy picture' for the poor sensitive Darlings in 'the pool'!
Since you have a 'reliable source' I shall leave it to you to proclaim the good news when it comes.
How long do you think it will be?
Last edited by Tandemrotor; 7th May 2009 at 18:50.
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I've got to agree with TR here, just because you don't like the news coming from those few in BA that are telling you what is going on there is no need to shoot the messenger. By all means be a 'glass half full" person, it will make you a nicer colleague to fly with, but don't dismiss info from insiders just because you think you know better. Hold pool swimmers need information - annoying those that give info, gloomy or otherwise, will not help or increase the flow of that information.
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I for one am glad of the information flowing on this thread.
Some of us will have to make major life decisions over the coming months, if we loose a job, or perhaps looking to change a job, or move house, or make financial commitments or whatever. The "how likely am I to be emlpoyed by BA in x months time" is a very important factor in this decision making and I am glad that some people are keeping us updated.
FWIW my personal planning is assuming that I am NOT going to be getting an offer from BA. Others may think differently but thats my take on the current news and looking at the current climate.
I am a glass half full person, but ultimately I can only control what I can control - no use worrying about what the rest of the world does - BA will do whatever they do, nothing I can do about it, however many positive thinking books I read!
Some of us will have to make major life decisions over the coming months, if we loose a job, or perhaps looking to change a job, or move house, or make financial commitments or whatever. The "how likely am I to be emlpoyed by BA in x months time" is a very important factor in this decision making and I am glad that some people are keeping us updated.
FWIW my personal planning is assuming that I am NOT going to be getting an offer from BA. Others may think differently but thats my take on the current news and looking at the current climate.
I am a glass half full person, but ultimately I can only control what I can control - no use worrying about what the rest of the world does - BA will do whatever they do, nothing I can do about it, however many positive thinking books I read!
BugSpeed
...Surely the whole reason for BA management using VR, unpaid leave etc is to alleviate the surplus problem by targeting the top 500...
No.
...I am pretty sure 1/5 will take the VR offer if it goes through, possibly more...
On what can you possibly base that statement?
I've known most of those concerned for over 25 years and I haven't got a clue how many will go, may go, or are considering going?
...In other words I think they hope VR to solve the current surplus...
BA knows that VR won't solve the current crisis.
...From a reliable source I have heard figures of around 100 as being the current surplus...
Really?
Well, I have heard, from the reliable source, there is no surplus figure being quoted, at present, nor is a future one being quoted, at present, because BA can't know what that figure might be until the VR process has closed, until the cost saving discussions with BALPA have closed, until the EU decide on the 80/20 slot rule and until the Route Planners finalise the route closure and aircraft stand-down program, as well as a few other minor factors like whether the Cabin Crew decide to take Industrial Action.
If the 80/20 decision goes in BA's favour, and if business passengers don't start flying again in a hurry, then a figure of 100 surplus pilots is certainly quite possible and it may well be much worse than that!
At present, nobody knows for sure, so if someone is quoting a figure to you, it's likely to be just guesswork.
...I very much doubt that compulsory redundancy is on the cards just yet...
For what it's worth, the majority opinion amongst the pilots in BA that I've spoken to is that there may well be compulsory redundancies ahead.
We hope not, but if there are, then BALPA will negotiate their recall ahead of any new hires, so it is unlikely to benefit pilots in the hold pool.
...dont think you need to paint quite such a gloomy picture...
Nobody is painting any sort of picture. However you have had at least three current BA pilots tell you what is happening, but, or so it appears, because it's not what you want to hear, you seem reluctant to accept it.
That's fine; you're entitled to your opinion.
However for others who may be about to make major career decisions, I would advise them to consider very carefully what has been posted by those inside BA. Optimism is a great quality, but Realism is a better one.
Finally, I believe there is some hope for those currently swimming in the pool who wish to remain there.
The year long time limit was only ever a piece of HR dogma, with no relevance to the real world that anyone outside HR could ever understand. Abandoning it has been long overdue, will save BA some money and may even allow a reduction in the number of Flt Ops HR personnel, a silver lining to a dark cloud if ever there was one!
As you say, BA have made it clear that they wish to be in a position to meet the surge when/if markets pick up, and they will wish to have pilots in the hold pool when that happens.
When might that be? 2011 is the very earliest date that I've heard mentioned, but that could happen, so, if you are determined to join BA and you can stick it out until then, who knows, you could be in luck!
I wish you all the Best of Luck in whatever you decide to do,
Bellerophon
...Surely the whole reason for BA management using VR, unpaid leave etc is to alleviate the surplus problem by targeting the top 500...
No.
...I am pretty sure 1/5 will take the VR offer if it goes through, possibly more...
On what can you possibly base that statement?
I've known most of those concerned for over 25 years and I haven't got a clue how many will go, may go, or are considering going?
...In other words I think they hope VR to solve the current surplus...
BA knows that VR won't solve the current crisis.
...From a reliable source I have heard figures of around 100 as being the current surplus...
Really?
Well, I have heard, from the reliable source, there is no surplus figure being quoted, at present, nor is a future one being quoted, at present, because BA can't know what that figure might be until the VR process has closed, until the cost saving discussions with BALPA have closed, until the EU decide on the 80/20 slot rule and until the Route Planners finalise the route closure and aircraft stand-down program, as well as a few other minor factors like whether the Cabin Crew decide to take Industrial Action.
If the 80/20 decision goes in BA's favour, and if business passengers don't start flying again in a hurry, then a figure of 100 surplus pilots is certainly quite possible and it may well be much worse than that!
At present, nobody knows for sure, so if someone is quoting a figure to you, it's likely to be just guesswork.
...I very much doubt that compulsory redundancy is on the cards just yet...
For what it's worth, the majority opinion amongst the pilots in BA that I've spoken to is that there may well be compulsory redundancies ahead.
We hope not, but if there are, then BALPA will negotiate their recall ahead of any new hires, so it is unlikely to benefit pilots in the hold pool.
...dont think you need to paint quite such a gloomy picture...
Nobody is painting any sort of picture. However you have had at least three current BA pilots tell you what is happening, but, or so it appears, because it's not what you want to hear, you seem reluctant to accept it.
That's fine; you're entitled to your opinion.
However for others who may be about to make major career decisions, I would advise them to consider very carefully what has been posted by those inside BA. Optimism is a great quality, but Realism is a better one.
Finally, I believe there is some hope for those currently swimming in the pool who wish to remain there.
The year long time limit was only ever a piece of HR dogma, with no relevance to the real world that anyone outside HR could ever understand. Abandoning it has been long overdue, will save BA some money and may even allow a reduction in the number of Flt Ops HR personnel, a silver lining to a dark cloud if ever there was one!
As you say, BA have made it clear that they wish to be in a position to meet the surge when/if markets pick up, and they will wish to have pilots in the hold pool when that happens.
When might that be? 2011 is the very earliest date that I've heard mentioned, but that could happen, so, if you are determined to join BA and you can stick it out until then, who knows, you could be in luck!
I wish you all the Best of Luck in whatever you decide to do,
Bellerophon
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Just another confirmation that yes, VR has been offered and yes, CR has been hinted at by top management in their latest communication..
Hang in there guys, I've was there a few years ago and know how tough it is (hope not to be joining you again - 290ish from the bottom of the seniority list...)
Hang in there guys, I've was there a few years ago and know how tough it is (hope not to be joining you again - 290ish from the bottom of the seniority list...)
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BS that comment of yours is way out of line.
I can see NOTHING wrong with his posting. Your sarcasm is misplaced.
His post is spot on and resembles my own view as a BA pilot. The truth can hurt, but at the moment we're hurting.
I can see NOTHING wrong with his posting. Your sarcasm is misplaced.
His post is spot on and resembles my own view as a BA pilot. The truth can hurt, but at the moment we're hurting.
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BugSpeed
Everything in Bellerophon's post is accurate.
Whereas, two weeks ago, you said:
Do tell when the good news is likely to be declared?
Everything in Bellerophon's post is accurate.
Whereas, two weeks ago, you said:
I though on the other hand dont think you need to paint quite such a gloomy picture for those currently swimming in the pool.
Do tell when the good news is likely to be declared?
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Ok Guys,
Think we all need to calm down a bit, it is clearly a frustrating time for everyone. If BA go down the route of CR's I am very much in the target zone, having just crept in before the drawbridge went up... so nobody is safe at the moment. But at the same time things are still really fluid, one minute CR's are going to happen, next Willie is saying they havent even been discussed regarding Flight Ops? Everyone seems to have a different opinion, one day I fly with someone who is telling me to sort out my cv, the next I am told not to worry....the truth is nobody knows!!!!
If the recession is still on it definitely isnt affecting BA shorthaul....just done 4 days of full loads, which has been pretty much the trend for the past few weeks....before you say it...I know the money is in longhaul....but T5 is far from quiet. And as BS did say BA will want to ramp it up fairly quickly when those green sprouts appear. So those swimming, I wouldnt lose hope...if you are still flying and keeping your experience up I see no reason for BA to drop you anytime soon....
So lets all chill out, because at the end of the day this is a rumour site!!!!
Think we all need to calm down a bit, it is clearly a frustrating time for everyone. If BA go down the route of CR's I am very much in the target zone, having just crept in before the drawbridge went up... so nobody is safe at the moment. But at the same time things are still really fluid, one minute CR's are going to happen, next Willie is saying they havent even been discussed regarding Flight Ops? Everyone seems to have a different opinion, one day I fly with someone who is telling me to sort out my cv, the next I am told not to worry....the truth is nobody knows!!!!
If the recession is still on it definitely isnt affecting BA shorthaul....just done 4 days of full loads, which has been pretty much the trend for the past few weeks....before you say it...I know the money is in longhaul....but T5 is far from quiet. And as BS did say BA will want to ramp it up fairly quickly when those green sprouts appear. So those swimming, I wouldnt lose hope...if you are still flying and keeping your experience up I see no reason for BA to drop you anytime soon....
So lets all chill out, because at the end of the day this is a rumour site!!!!
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Last reported on this thread, on 5th May was the estimate of fleet reductions. At that time, it was 2x767, and 3x747.
A few days ago, it was announced that the 'current' working assumption for winter 09 (from end Oct) was 8x757, and 8x747 to be removed from operations.
If these figures prove accurate, there are very likely to be significant implications for those currently employed by BA.
As a rough guide, the company have announced they are looking to reduce cabin crew numbers by 2000 (out of 14000 = 14%?) by 30 Sep 09.
Please feel free to draw your own conclusions.
PS: Admittedly not strictly relevant, but incase you were wondering, 14% of 3200 pilots, is 448)
A few days ago, it was announced that the 'current' working assumption for winter 09 (from end Oct) was 8x757, and 8x747 to be removed from operations.
If these figures prove accurate, there are very likely to be significant implications for those currently employed by BA.
As a rough guide, the company have announced they are looking to reduce cabin crew numbers by 2000 (out of 14000 = 14%?) by 30 Sep 09.
Please feel free to draw your own conclusions.
PS: Admittedly not strictly relevant, but incase you were wondering, 14% of 3200 pilots, is 448)
Sevenmilesup
"At this time no numbers for pilot surplus have been quoted, but rest assured if and when BA declare redundancies are required, all avenues will no doubt be explored"
Err, it's not "if" - BA have already asked for pilots to take redundency on a voluntary basis - though I agree no numbers have been quoted.
Err, it's not "if" - BA have already asked for pilots to take redundency on a voluntary basis - though I agree no numbers have been quoted.
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The 2000 cabin crew number bears no relationship to any flight crew number. The cabin crew community procedures are very inflexible in disruption on LH and very inflexible slightly off schedule resulting in combination with a sickness rate 3 times that of the pilots community in a requirement for enormous numbers on various types of standby.
Whilst LH cabing crew approach the 900 hour limit, as do LH pilots the SH cabin crew only fly about 500 hours vs 700 for SH pilots (company numbers, individual pilots will vary). Doubtless many of the 2000 will reflect changes in working practises esp in SH that are long overdue, and not just the fleet standdown programme.
As to recruitment of pilots, Bellepheron is spot on, you may not like the news but son't shoot the messenger
I wouldn't plan of any pilot hiring before 2011 at the very soonest, probably late 2011 or 2012 in reality.
Whilst LH cabing crew approach the 900 hour limit, as do LH pilots the SH cabin crew only fly about 500 hours vs 700 for SH pilots (company numbers, individual pilots will vary). Doubtless many of the 2000 will reflect changes in working practises esp in SH that are long overdue, and not just the fleet standdown programme.
As to recruitment of pilots, Bellepheron is spot on, you may not like the news but son't shoot the messenger
I wouldn't plan of any pilot hiring before 2011 at the very soonest, probably late 2011 or 2012 in reality.
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BA will recruit again and for those still waiting then it is purely a question of can you perhaps wait a couple of years (maybe more) before joining? Some of the negativity that I have seen would indicate that BA are about to announce that all pilot recruitment has permanently ended.
The industry is struggling but a peak will be around the corner at some point. Until we see that peak on the horizon, then remaining employed will be a feat in itself for quite a few of us.
Worry about things you can control. None of us can control the HR needs at BA. Keep your head down and survive the storm and be ready to strike whilst the iron is getting hot again!
The industry is struggling but a peak will be around the corner at some point. Until we see that peak on the horizon, then remaining employed will be a feat in itself for quite a few of us.
Worry about things you can control. None of us can control the HR needs at BA. Keep your head down and survive the storm and be ready to strike whilst the iron is getting hot again!
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All current indications seem to suggest, the ONLY thing that will prevent Compulsory Redundancies of pilots at BA, will be if BA pilots as a whole vote for FURTHER financial penalties to save the jobs of colleagues at risk.
This is ON TOP of ALL current negotiations for VR / Increased Productivity / Pay Cuts.
As you would all admire. Any of our colleagues who WERE made Redundant would be offered re-employment before anyone from any 'hold pool' (Should such a concept have survived to the relevant time)
FYI: Headlines in the most recent BA News, was: "Fight For Survival"
Allegedly we are up against it!
This is ON TOP of ALL current negotiations for VR / Increased Productivity / Pay Cuts.
As you would all admire. Any of our colleagues who WERE made Redundant would be offered re-employment before anyone from any 'hold pool' (Should such a concept have survived to the relevant time)
FYI: Headlines in the most recent BA News, was: "Fight For Survival"
Allegedly we are up against it!
Last edited by Tandemrotor; 8th Jun 2009 at 22:46.