17 minutes to live
 

A recent discussion in a bar with friends brought up this old chestnut. A recent simulator exercise had an on board fire indication. Now there is a lot of information out there and it all seems to say that you have on average 17 minutes to get the aircraft back on the ground. This is based on data from previous incidents, most of which date back to the period 1970-2000. My question is, 25 years on is this still the case? Have better designed components, aircraft made a difference. You will never rule out things such as DG incidents. Curious on examples and thoughts. The only one that immediately springs to mind is UPS 747 freighter in Dubai. That was 26 minutes roughly from indication to loss of control. Discuss.

The last study I used in development of a pilot ground school was from 2002 UK CAA White Paper. This is very likely the source of the information you have on hand, given the paper did rely on previous incidents and accidents in its analysis. The paper contains several charts and tables outlining the probability of survival for a hidden fire. It's been a few years since I looked at the data, but 15 to 20 minutes sticks out in my mind as a 50% probability of survival and anything after I believe it was 40 minutes was non-survivable, but I'm willing to be corrected if someone digs deep into that paper. As I said, it's been a few years and it may have been updated since I last read through it. I suppose the good news is that if the tables have not been updated, it could mean there have not been enough incidents to warrant another study. Or, as you infer, better design and components have increased the probability of survival.