What's next for civil aviation ?
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What's next for civil aviation ?
Not sure this is the right forum to post - feel free to move elsewhere
With the recent announcement by Boeing that they would not even start designing a new airlines for the next 10 years and with Airbus hard pressed to deliver on their solid and competitive lineup I was wondering what could be conceivably next for civil aviation ?
Clearly the duopoly has no incentive for any significant risk taking and / or disruptive technology choices. Embrear is doing a fine job in some niches but I don’t see them becoming a major player (and if they do they will be snatched up). Comac might appear on the radar at some point but still a long way to go. Russia is… well, no comment there, irrespective of the outcome of the current conflict.
So to get back to aviation technology what / where can we expect a significant move ? Electric will remain at best a niche for the foreseeable future. Hydrogen has some potential but will be a tough nut to crack for aviation even if green production can be scaled up. SAF is a non starter IMHO. Fully automated operations will eventually come but certainly a long way off.
Any hope to see significant changes / disruption ?
With the recent announcement by Boeing that they would not even start designing a new airlines for the next 10 years and with Airbus hard pressed to deliver on their solid and competitive lineup I was wondering what could be conceivably next for civil aviation ?
Clearly the duopoly has no incentive for any significant risk taking and / or disruptive technology choices. Embrear is doing a fine job in some niches but I don’t see them becoming a major player (and if they do they will be snatched up). Comac might appear on the radar at some point but still a long way to go. Russia is… well, no comment there, irrespective of the outcome of the current conflict.
So to get back to aviation technology what / where can we expect a significant move ? Electric will remain at best a niche for the foreseeable future. Hydrogen has some potential but will be a tough nut to crack for aviation even if green production can be scaled up. SAF is a non starter IMHO. Fully automated operations will eventually come but certainly a long way off.
Any hope to see significant changes / disruption ?
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Looking around, I don't see anything revolutionary in aerodynamics or propulsion on the horizon. Recent developments are all inside the aircraft with digital networks etc. The flying wing concept for large (200+ pax) is some way off I think. "Warp drives" and such science fiction ideas are next century, so we are left with the current tube and fan driven by turbine concepts for a while yet.
Hydrogen is probably going to be the fuel source going past 2050 as the engineering challenges are overcome and infrastructure is developed.
Boeing need to replace the B737 that is scalable up and down to cover up to just below B777. Airbus seem pretty well settled with A320 - A350 for next 10 years.
Therefore, working with what we have a got......a carbon fibre, twin engined A380 at the long range/high capacity end of the market?????
Hydrogen is probably going to be the fuel source going past 2050 as the engineering challenges are overcome and infrastructure is developed.
Boeing need to replace the B737 that is scalable up and down to cover up to just below B777. Airbus seem pretty well settled with A320 - A350 for next 10 years.
Therefore, working with what we have a got......a carbon fibre, twin engined A380 at the long range/high capacity end of the market?????
I don't see any revolutions in commercial aviation coming.
In my time on this planet, (since 1953) ,the change from recip to turbine power took place but the changes to the Jet airliner have been evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Modern airliners don't look very deffferent from the Boeing Dash80 / 707.
Yes, some are bigger, engines are a lot more efficient, materials have improved and got lighter, (composites), electronics are now in control, but they still fly at about Mach 0.8 at 35 to 40000ft.
An alien who visited in 1960 and came back today would not see much change. We had Concorde but that's history now.
Blended wings may come but I don't think I will see them in service. 30 years at least.
I also think we may be near Peak Aviation now with all the Green agenda.
In my time on this planet, (since 1953) ,the change from recip to turbine power took place but the changes to the Jet airliner have been evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Modern airliners don't look very deffferent from the Boeing Dash80 / 707.
Yes, some are bigger, engines are a lot more efficient, materials have improved and got lighter, (composites), electronics are now in control, but they still fly at about Mach 0.8 at 35 to 40000ft.
An alien who visited in 1960 and came back today would not see much change. We had Concorde but that's history now.
Blended wings may come but I don't think I will see them in service. 30 years at least.
I also think we may be near Peak Aviation now with all the Green agenda.
