UPS cargo crash near Birmingham AL
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His calculations are wrong at least in one respect - he incorrectly assumes that glidepath is calculated to the runway threshold, but in fact it should be calculate to a touchdown zone - usually around 1000-1500 ft from runway threshold.
correct alt (feet, asl) = tan(a) x distance (feet) + threshold elevation (feet) + TCH (feet), where a = glidepath angle
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Originally Posted by JimField
What makes you think that a similar analysis for UPS 1354 is any less accurate?
Last edited by A Squared; 16th Aug 2013 at 20:28.
For those of you more familiar with the airport and the UPS operation of the 306 what result do you come ou with for the flight using this risk assesment tool?
(The Flight Safety Foundation CFIT assessment tool)
http://flightsafety.org/files/cfit_check.pdf
(The Flight Safety Foundation CFIT assessment tool)
http://flightsafety.org/files/cfit_check.pdf
Last edited by tubby linton; 16th Aug 2013 at 20:41.
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@ A Squared:
Just a suggestion: Any chance we can discuss the substantive issues I raised, including systemic problems in the airline industry, such as poor crew training, overworked crews, etc., which are posing important public safety hazards, rather than engaging in personal attacks based on your feelings?
immature and dishonest
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Are you saying that it's not dishonest to pretend you're not Sooet? It may ruffle your feathers to be called on your pointless deception, but it is what it is. And yeah, dishonest and immature are reasonable descriptions of what you're doing.
Last edited by A Squared; 16th Aug 2013 at 20:46.
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Reading NTSB accident reports many months after the accident is fine well and good, but I want to know what happened to UPS 1354 now, to the extent possible. I see no good reason to ignore all sources of information, and I will also read the NTSB AAR on UPS 1354 when it comes out many months from now.
More information is a good thing. We are talking about very serious public safety issues here. Just ask the hundreds of people whose houses are directly under or near the approach path to runway 18 at BHM
More information is a good thing. We are talking about very serious public safety issues here. Just ask the hundreds of people whose houses are directly under or near the approach path to runway 18 at BHM
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For those of you more familiar with the airport and the UPS operation of the 306 what result do you come ou with for the flight using this risk assesment tool?
(The Flight Safety Foundation CFIT assessment tool)
http://flightsafety.org/files/cfit_check.pdf
(The Flight Safety Foundation CFIT assessment tool)
http://flightsafety.org/files/cfit_check.pdf
Love it!
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@ A Squared
Need I remind? UPS 1354 crashed and burned 1 nm short of RWY 18. Why is it surprising that the last data point in the FlightAware feed may be incorrect?
The FDR and CVR could very well be toast and all their data lost. Should the people who want to know what happened to UPS 1354 throw away all other data sources too?
Are you saying that all FlightAware data is useless and cannot be trusted?
Uhhh, you're basing it on a data set which places the final position of the aircraft a mile or so beyond where it came to rest. And your "fix" is to merely delete the obviously incorrect data and substitute a position from another source, without any consideration of the fact that the rest of the data you're accepting as true may also be flawed, but not as detectible.
The FDR and CVR could very well be toast and all their data lost. Should the people who want to know what happened to UPS 1354 throw away all other data sources too?
Are you saying that all FlightAware data is useless and cannot be trusted?
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Everybody is in a rush these days and expects everything instantly. Well, guess what? Accident investigations take time. I can tell you what likely happened right now. What good is it? Absolutely zero, because it's based on the what facts we have right now - which are exactly zero.
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Nothing particular unusual about it, there are many airports with similar "hills" in immediate runway vicinity (for example RNO).
The important point is that minimum vis for this approach is 1 mile so they would clearly see all the obstacles well in advance.
Reports from pilots in this very thread appear to indicate it is not just another approach.
skysign: The last 1/2 to 1 mile you litteraly buze the hill all the ways down to the RWY. It is like doing a low flyby over a downhill slope to the rwy. Landing on 18, is like landing at the bottom of a bowl. And yes it is an " interesting approach " day or night !!!!!
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Hey guys, just watched about half of today's NTSB press conference. The biggest news was that they have good data on both the CVR and the FDR. On the CVR, something like 10-20 seconds (don't quote the time until I/you re-watch the press conference) before the end of the recording the plane called out "SINKRATE". The captain was flying. They interviewed the controller and he saw a "bright flash" that looked "like lightning" that he believes was prior to the actual impact into the ground (I personally think this is the plane hitting the trees/powerlines). Finally they said BHM has software in the control tower that is supposed to alert if a plane is dropping too fast and that it did NOT alert in the tower.
And some people were talking earlier about how long that runway has been there. 6/24 has been there since the 30s, and 18/36 has been there since the very early 50s from what I can tell. There was a pretty big noise abatement buyout project funded by the FAA about 10 years ago, and of course since then there have continuously been people that were outside the project that have been complaining to get their homes bought out. Those neighborhoods are low-income already and most of those homes are probably sub $50,000 value.
And some people were talking earlier about how long that runway has been there. 6/24 has been there since the 30s, and 18/36 has been there since the very early 50s from what I can tell. There was a pretty big noise abatement buyout project funded by the FAA about 10 years ago, and of course since then there have continuously been people that were outside the project that have been complaining to get their homes bought out. Those neighborhoods are low-income already and most of those homes are probably sub $50,000 value.
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Reports from pilots in this very thread appear to indicate it is not just another approach
Last edited by Murexway; 16th Aug 2013 at 21:56.
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Original Quote by Coagie: Of course, the airport is probably there since the '20's or '30's, and might not have been such a noisy place for the surrounding neighborhoods, since it may not have extended out so much, or had noisy jets.
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Need I remind? UPS 1354 crashed and burned 1 nm short of RWY 18. Why is it surprising that the last data point in the FlightAware feed may be incorrect?
The FDR and CVR could very well be toast and all their data lost. Should the people who want to know what happened to UPS 1354 throw away all other data sources too?
Are you saying that all FlightAware data is useless and cannot be trusted?
The FDR and CVR could very well be toast and all their data lost. Should the people who want to know what happened to UPS 1354 throw away all other data sources too?
Are you saying that all FlightAware data is useless and cannot be trusted?
I don't have time to explain all the defects in your "analysis", but as one example out of many:
It's pretty obvious that the data for the last position is grossly in error, right? I mean after all it shows the airplane on the national guard ramp about a mile from where we know it ended up. So, gotta be in error right? so we just delete that position from the analysis. Cool. Now here's the hysterical part, even though we know beyond a shadow of a doubt that the last data record in the FlightAware is hopelessly flawed, You still preserve the velocity reported in that defective record, and inexplicably incorporate it into your charts and "analysis
The fact that you don't see the folly of taking that velocity reported in the final record, and basing conclusions on it speaks volumes.
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From The Birmingham News:
Cockpit voice recordings show the pilots were cleared to land on Runway 18/36 two minutes before the end of the recording, Sumwalt said. Sixteen seconds before the end of the recording, the pilots received the first of two "sink rate" warnings, a mechanism which kicks in if the plane's descent does not match its programmed path, he added. Thirteen seconds to the end, one crew member reported the runway was in sight. Nine seconds prior to the end, there are "sounds that are consistent with impact," Sumwalt said.
Cockpit voice recordings show the pilots were cleared to land on Runway 18/36 two minutes before the end of the recording, Sumwalt said. Sixteen seconds before the end of the recording, the pilots received the first of two "sink rate" warnings, a mechanism which kicks in if the plane's descent does not match its programmed path, he added. Thirteen seconds to the end, one crew member reported the runway was in sight. Nine seconds prior to the end, there are "sounds that are consistent with impact," Sumwalt said.
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NTSB: UPS plane's cockpit voice recorder reveals first descent warning came 16 seconds before end of recording
BIRMINGHAM, Alabama -- The flight data recorders captured "good quality" information and recorded UPS Flight 1354's entire flight, a National Transportation Safety Board official said.
"I am very happy to say that the recorders did their job," said Robert Sumwalt, board member with the NTSB. "We have very good data from both the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder."
The UPS cargo plane crashed about 5 a.m. Wednesday on approach to Birmingham-Shuttlesworth International Airport, killing the two pilots.
The plane's cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder were retrieved on Thursday and flown to NTSB's lab in Washington, D.C. There, analysts were able to open the recorders and begin retrieving data Friday morning, Sumwalt said.
Cockpit voice recordings show the pilots were cleared to land on Runway 18/36 two minutes before the end of the recording, Sumwalt said.
Sixteen seconds before the end of the recording, the pilots received the first of two "sink rate" warnings, a mechanism which kicks in if the plane's descent does not match its programmed path, he added.
Thirteen seconds to the end, one crew member reported the runway was in sight.
Nine seconds prior to the end, there are "sounds that are consistent with impact," Sumwalt said.
The voice recorder also revealed the captain, Cerea Beal, Jr., was the flying pilot.
The flight data recorder captured 70 hours of data, including the entire flight.
The data recorder contains more than 400 parameters which must all be validated to ensure they were accurately recorded, Sumwalt said.
Investigators also interviewed the two air traffic controllers who were on duty.
One was on an allowed break at the time of the crash. The controller who witnessed the crash said "he saw what appeared to be a bright spark flash, which he equated to what it would look like if a power line broke," Sumwalt said.
The air traffic controller said the landing lights disappeared and there was bright orange flash followed by a red glow.
BIRMINGHAM, Alabama -- The flight data recorders captured "good quality" information and recorded UPS Flight 1354's entire flight, a National Transportation Safety Board official said.
"I am very happy to say that the recorders did their job," said Robert Sumwalt, board member with the NTSB. "We have very good data from both the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder."
The UPS cargo plane crashed about 5 a.m. Wednesday on approach to Birmingham-Shuttlesworth International Airport, killing the two pilots.
The plane's cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder were retrieved on Thursday and flown to NTSB's lab in Washington, D.C. There, analysts were able to open the recorders and begin retrieving data Friday morning, Sumwalt said.
Cockpit voice recordings show the pilots were cleared to land on Runway 18/36 two minutes before the end of the recording, Sumwalt said.
Sixteen seconds before the end of the recording, the pilots received the first of two "sink rate" warnings, a mechanism which kicks in if the plane's descent does not match its programmed path, he added.
Thirteen seconds to the end, one crew member reported the runway was in sight.
Nine seconds prior to the end, there are "sounds that are consistent with impact," Sumwalt said.
The voice recorder also revealed the captain, Cerea Beal, Jr., was the flying pilot.
The flight data recorder captured 70 hours of data, including the entire flight.
The data recorder contains more than 400 parameters which must all be validated to ensure they were accurately recorded, Sumwalt said.
Investigators also interviewed the two air traffic controllers who were on duty.
One was on an allowed break at the time of the crash. The controller who witnessed the crash said "he saw what appeared to be a bright spark flash, which he equated to what it would look like if a power line broke," Sumwalt said.
The air traffic controller said the landing lights disappeared and there was bright orange flash followed by a red glow.
Starting to look like there was no mechanical malfunction. 'SINK RATE' at night on approach should have triggered an immediate go around at most carriers in my experience.