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AF 447 Search to resume (part2)

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AF 447 Search to resume (part2)

Old 17th May 2011, 03:11
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A theory:

Following the money, Airbus, Thales, and AF will be declared innocent. Pilots will be blamed for actions and/or not following training and/or protocol.

The data will be shaped to fit the verdict rather than the opposite.

Do I believe this theory?

If the 0 hour rumor proves correct, I will certainly be wondering...
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Old 17th May 2011, 03:19
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Sorry if I am ten steps behind here, but what exactly has caused the talk about a possible crew change event?

The only way I could possibly see an actual pilot change is if the head captain wanted to be in the left seat to navigate through the unforeseen major weather event, and that I would suppose would be a long shot that he would have done that at such a time. "Here, let me help....oops, sorry, killed us all." I just can't imagine that.
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Old 17th May 2011, 03:25
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Lemurian,

That piece of video is a self-serving operation by a sensationalist journalist of the Fig trying to sell his book.
One of the objectives posting about the journalist (responsible for transport at Figaro) was to show he wrote a book on Air France´s "performance".

This could mean something to be considered by us before any premature (risky) conclusion.

But there is something very important to be considered by us in this magnificent and serious thread: The speed and the schedule from them to deliver results. And the mention to Safety. IMO this points to cause(s) simpler than the ones many of participants diligently elaborated.

This said, we have two possibilities here :
Your comments are with the proper tone and i am concerned also.

This is very assertive, "loud and clear":

INFO LE FIGARO - Selon nos informations, les premiers éléments émanant des boîtes noires orientent les enquêteurs vers une erreur de l'équipage d'Air France.
Selon les sources interrogées par Le Figaro, de nouveaux éléments sur la responsabilité d'Air France ou de son équipage seront communiquées par le BEA dans la journée de mardi. Le rapport définitif d'enquête du BEA devrait être rédigé durant plusieurs mois mais il est possible que le scénario du drame soit définitivement établi d'ici la fin de semaine.
Un dénouement aussi rapide...rappelait lundi soir une source gouvernementale
I posted #1517 imagining they reached a "good understanding" yet today.

But this Figaro´s news "shocked" me.

Pointing that the "Why´s phase" seems no longer necessary.

Last edited by Jetdriver; 17th May 2011 at 12:39.
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Old 17th May 2011, 03:28
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SaturnV wrote:

Is this a hint there was only one pilot in the cockpit?
This is intriguing, as, if I remember correctly (no time to check at the moment) just a few pages ago, someone (Lemurian?) suggested that the changeover time could have been at 2:10.

If I remember correctly:
  • the Captain's body was recovered in 2009.
  • one body was recovered on about 5 May 2011 reportedly still strapped into a seat
  • a second body was recovered the next day, also reportedly strapped into a seat

If they were trying to confirm location of all pilots, it would make sense for them to have tried to identify and recover the two remaining pilots and to recover all 4 seats up front, shown in the pic the PJ2 recently posted (post #1482).

What we don't know (assuming both bodies recently recovered were indeed still strapped in, and are indeed the pilots), is which seats they were still strapped into.

Is there a candidate seat in the rest area (I also seem to recall that the flight was full, suggesting we could rule out them being in a revenue seat in the cabin?).

It would be unfortunate if the initial significant upset coincided with changeover, slammed the door, only one pilot was up front, and no-one else could get in because of these "security measures" or even for no other reason that he was trying to aviate alone with everything FUBAR. To add to all other problems that have been discussed for so long.

I expect this might be quite apparent on first listening to the CVR, hence the speed this "leak" seems to have become apparent?

(By the way, it occurred to me recently: there must be something like easily 500+ accumulated years of flying experience represented in posts on the last 20 pages or so... From a layman my reaction is: Wow...)
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Old 17th May 2011, 03:34
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Hi,
Originally Posted by CogSim
Does the FDR record flight deck seat occupancy parameters, effectively ruling out incapacitated pilot(s)?
DFDR would not provide enough information in order to exactly understand what happened in this cockpit, as it is mentioned as "resolved". We could speculate about it but it won't really lead us anywhere until it is officially released. As it might be as soon as tomorrow (in a few hours from now), quoting Le Figaro, maybe we'll know it pretty soon!

This reporter is also talking about a full report that could be released in a week instead of the several months previously planned.... Hence, they could have something (New) but it would certainly not come from a DFDR quick analysis (as written).

A safety issue, which is not yet determined between the responsability of the company or the pilots, could cover a wide range of possible. Now, how it would have caused a crash without other factors is a bit puzzling at this point, until further information.

Last edited by takata; 17th May 2011 at 03:45.
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Old 17th May 2011, 04:05
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A bit puzzling

Takata,

Now, how it would have caused a crash without other factors is a bit puzzling at this point, until further information.
I observed you put "a bit puzzling" instead of puzzling.

To imagine the possible results (we should watch Figaro H24) why not use the K.I.S.S. approach.?

The rumor network this way is going fast to suffer from "rumor starvation" in our thread.

Who to blame? The journalist

ll ask again:

What we can do (next morning ) with the multidisciplinary and ingenious models diligently elaborated?

I´m also concerned on the "lack of motivation" that can assaults BEA investigators if the simple scenario is confirmed.
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Old 17th May 2011, 04:16
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Unique case in air accidents investigation?

Originally posted by Takata
Now, how it would have caused a crash without other factors is a bit puzzling at this point, until further information.
I remembered briefly the "simple cause'' in (A310) Aeroflot Flight 593. But was just a "brain glitch" i hope.

Last edited by RR_NDB; 17th May 2011 at 04:20. Reason: add simple cause
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Old 17th May 2011, 04:18
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What if

What if the body/bodies found strapped in the pilot seats were not the pilots?

Terrorism would absolve AI and put the investigation to rest very quickly.
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Old 17th May 2011, 04:26
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Nvrsaynvr wrote:

What if the body/bodies found strapped in the pilot seats were not the pilots?

Terrorism would absolve AI and put the investigation to rest very quickly.
Yes it could, though I recall no serious claims for responsibility from any perpetrator group (which you would expect if that was the cause) and also the BEA finding (based on non-deployment of oxygen masks) that no depressurisation event occurred suggests no explosion at cruising altitude.

True, the latter would not rule out eg cockpit intrusion, just as it would not rule out eg, fire (eg SwissAir) or some other event not really discussed to date here.

But surely it would be improbable in the extreme for some other cause to be primarily responsible given the ACARS data indicating pitot problems and that the flight computers were messed up, and the enormous weather system in which it disappeared.
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Old 17th May 2011, 04:26
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deSitter - there are forces in a storm that would knock a 777 or even some of the bigger stuff out of the sky in the blink of an eye. Let's have no more of this nonsense.

With regard to the rumour - we should treat it as it is, a rumour and nothing more. It may indeed be that the pilots were to blame or it may not. We should remember at all times that pilots are human beings and human beings do strange and unaccountable things. That being said we may be looking at some strange technical phenomena as well.
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Old 17th May 2011, 04:47
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just as it would not rule out eg, fire (eg SwissAir)
After "today rumor"(*)from this journalist you can forget this possibility that was practically "ruled out" before.

* high pressure, high flow, super cooled water

Last edited by Jetdriver; 17th May 2011 at 12:40.
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Old 17th May 2011, 04:52
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Originally Posted by Plasmech
Sorry if I am ten steps behind here, but what exactly has caused the talk about a possible crew change event?
Relief time, possibly just before event at 0210. How the slots were filled then? But live radar picture in cockpit is unknown (as really see by crew, be it true or false) and can't be derived from the satellite.
Maybe we'll learn much more about crew issues today.
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Old 17th May 2011, 05:07
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Originally Posted by auraflyer
given the ACARS data indicating pitot problems and that the flight computers were messed up
Contrary to your belief, those ACARS are just pointing at the opposite: no messing up of the flight computers because they detected those probe issues, and then disconnected the flight envelope protections that could have been affected as they were supposed to do.
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Old 17th May 2011, 07:25
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Figaro is wrong

As I suspected it, the BEA has just posted a (quite hard) denial of yesterday Le Figaro article (called "sensationalist", "prematured", "invalid", etc.)

End of story, nothing NEW.
This inquiry is continued as planned, an interim report would be released this summer, but they are near-sure now, from their elements, that "all the light will be shred on the crash cause(s)". Nonetheless, they would certainly not make any conclusion at this stage.

Originally Posted by BEA
Selon un article paru dans le Figaro dans la soirée du lundi 16 mai 2011, les « premiers éléments extraits des boîtes noires » mettraient Airbus hors de cause dans l'accident de l'A330, vol AF 447, qui a coûté la vie à 216 passagers et 12 membres d'équipage le 1er juin 2009.
Sacrifier au sensationnalisme en publiant des informations non validées alors que l'exploitation des données des enregistreurs de vol ne fait que commencer est une atteinte au respect des passagers et des membres d'équipage décédés et jette le trouble parmi les familles des victimes qui ont déjà subi de nombreux effets d'annonce. Le BEA rappelle que, dans le cadre de sa mission en tant qu'autorité d'enquête de sécurité, lui seul peut communiquer sur les avancées de l'enquête. De ce fait, toute information sur l'enquête provenant d'une autre source est nulle et non avenue si elle n'a pas été validée par le BEA.
Le recueil de l'intégralité des données contenues dans les enregistrements phoniques et des paramètres du vol nous donne aujourd'hui la quasi-certitude que toute la lumière va pouvoir être faite sur cet accident.
Les enquêteurs vont maintenant devoir analyser et valider de multiples informations. Il s'agit d'un travail long et minutieux et le BEA a déjà annoncé qu'il ne publiera pas de rapport intérimaire avant l'été.
A ce stade de l'enquête aucune conclusion ne peut être tirée.
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Old 17th May 2011, 07:56
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The following, is hopefully a literal translation into English of the press release alluded to by takata in the post above.

According to an article in Le Figaro on the evening of Monday, May 16, 2011, the "initial data extracted from the black boxes would eliminate Airbus as responsible for the accident to the A330, Flight 447, which killed 216 passengers and 12 crew members on 1 June 2009."

Unconfirmed information, while examination of data from the flight recorder has just begun, is a tribute to sensationalism, an affront and lack of respect to the passengers and crew members who died, while causing concern amongst the families of victims who have already suffered trauma from such announcements. The BEA said that, as part of its mission as the authority for safety investigation, only it can communicate on the progress of the investigation. Thus, any information about the investigation from any other source is null and void if it has not been confirmed by the BEA.

The collection of all data contained in records both of voice and flight parameters downloaded today, makes it virtually certain that total light will be shed on this incident.

Investigators will now have to analyze and validate the various information. This is a long and painstaking process, and the BEA has already announced it will not issue an interim report before the summer.

At this stage of investigation, no conclusion can be drawn.
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Old 17th May 2011, 08:36
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Le Figaro reveals its source ...
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Old 17th May 2011, 08:37
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HOAX

So we are confronted with another mad example of the socalled "investigative jornalismn ??
Seems to be a very bad case of someone jumping on the bandwagon !!!

I must admit I feel more comfortable - as far as one can be in such a sad case - with a cautious and serious readout of all data available.
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Old 17th May 2011, 08:40
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INFO LE FIGARO - Airbus on Tuesday morning a telex sent information to all airlines in the world to tell them that the black box analysis confirmed the reliability of the A330.

Information to escape and brush the Office of Investigations and Analysis (BEA) at Le Bourget. From yesterday evening, Le Figaro announced that the first elements analyzed on the black boxes seem harmless to Airbus in the tragedy that claimed the lives of 228 people on 1 June 2009. Tuesday morning, the scenario seems to confirm puisqu'Airbus just sent a "Accident Information Telex" including Le Figaro has obtained a copy, to all its customers worldwide. The manufacturer shall indicate the voice of Yannick Malinge, head of security, "at this stage of preliminary analysis of the Flight Data Recorder (recorder flight parameters, Ed), Airbus has no immediate recommendation to to its operators. Updates will be provided as soon as significant items that Airbus will be available or will be authorized to issue more information in accordance with the investigation. "
Translation: nothing in the initial analysis of black boxes and gives no reason for Airbus to alert its customers of any technical fault of the A330 or any change in procedure. "Airbus has been approached over the weekend by investigators on the BEA flight parameters and technical details found in the FDR, Le Figaro said an expert on aviation safety. Airbus top management should now have a fairly clear idea of ​​what happened. "
Tuesday morning, the manufacturer had no comment, like Air France, which "looks to reliable and evidence based BEA," according to his spokesman. "We should know more in the day, Le Figaro said a government source. We do not yet have information on the data from Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR that records conversations in the cockpit). They should be critical, especially to understand what makes the crew. "
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Old 17th May 2011, 09:11
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If there is even a small kernel of 'fact' in the Le Figaro "sensationalist" story, it may be associated with the BEA recovering, as a priority, the captain's seat, the co-pilot's seat, and the "fourth occupant's" seat, and two bodies in seats.

The bodies are being subjected to DNA analysis because of decomposition once they were raised from the pressure and temperature that preserved them. Other descriptions are that the 50 or so bodies in the wreckage area are in a waxen state, and possibly, or even probably, all have already been photographed. Presumably these two bodies were photographed as well before ascent. Beyond the prior photography, one could also use clothing, jewelry, dental records to help identify bodies from these depths.

The BEA and the French judicial authorities were surely told well in advance what was likely to happen to AF 447 bodies if raised to the surface as these were, so it would seem that these bodies were raised not as a random test, but in the course of recovery of those three seats in the cockpit.

So was the BEA, on the basis of the seats and bodies recovered, already anticipating to hear something on the CVR?

And to get in the realm of sensationalism, are the bodies those of the two FOs, or is only one that of a FO?
_____________

A lurking question in my mind is why would the Le Figaro reporter specifically call attention to Air France's security procedures? (And I don't for a second believe this is terrorism related in any way.)

Last edited by SaturnV; 17th May 2011 at 09:32.
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Old 17th May 2011, 09:15
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Originally Posted by Fabrice Amadeo, Le Figaro
bla bla bla, rubish rubish rubish (see above)
This so-called "investigation journalist" considered as an "expert" is simply a nuisance for the public opinion and the readers of Le Figaro.
I was pretty sure yesterday of something like that after reading his first draft:
"In fact, The BEA can't remotedly say anything like that at this point of their investigation. Maybe the journalist simply misunderstood a source saying that "nothing wrong was found about this aircraft's behavior so far", badly deducing that FDR data were fully analysed!"
Now, after reading his source (Airbus communiqué to type users), his huge incompetence is even more apaling.

Last edited by takata; 17th May 2011 at 09:36.
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