AF 447 Search to resume

[mm43]

An updated graphic showing where the "Seabed Worker" and "Anne Candies" are working follows:-



The "Seabed Worker" is continuing to work in the olive area, and its course and speed are quite variable. This is
probably due to the requirements of launching, tracking and recovering of the Remus AUVs, and as a result only the
latest position for her has been plotted.

"Anne Candies" continues towing the Orion sidescan sonar between 3°00'N and 3°40'N on a track of about
172°/352°T at 2.7KTS. There is a long run in and and out to get the tow stabilized and allow for a slow turn
back on to the opposite heading. Judging by some of the timings the Orion has been recovered and relaunched
between some of the tows.

Thanks to broadreach for supplying the data.

mm43

[mm43]

The following graphic shows the latest available positions of both the "Seabed Worker" and the "Anne Candies".
Previous times, course and speed data for the "Anne Candies" has been removed to avoid clutter. It should be noted
that the vessel has run the same track twice, once southwards and then retraced the track on the next northward run.
Whether there was a problem on the southbound run, or whether a rerun of the track has been made for another
reason can only be guessed at.



The southbound positions are identified by the white dots and the northbound by the blue dots inside the cyan position
circles. Its worth noting that the plotted track may vary quite a bit from the bottom track due to the surface current
and wind.

The "Seabed Worker" has moved a little further to the north in the past day, but once again the position shown is
the last one obtained for the day.

Thanks to broadreach for supplying the data.

mm43

[mm43]

"Seabed Worker" & "Anne Candies" 22 April positions

The "Anne Candies" appears to have done little since yesterdays report. In fact there is only one position available for her today, and that puts her further to the west and heading into the olive area where the "Seabed Worker" is chasing around after her Remus AUVs. The latest position for the "Seabed Worker" is on the southern edge of the olive zone (which has been extended) and she is heading east at 9 knots.



The BEA have been very quiet this week, so other than making use of the few satellite positions that can be obtained for the search vessels, we will need to be patient.

Thanks to broadreach for the data.

mm43

[adamnaylor]

mm43

Thanks for the updates mm43, and the analysis.

Keep 'em coming.

[jcjeant]

Hi,

Despite it's very informative to know the exact position of the search vessels it will be better to know the position of the pieces from AF447 .. as the days of this third researches phase are slowly but surely running out ........

[vanHorck]

We don't know why the search area was extended. It could be because the search is going faster than expected (weather may have been better) or because some debris may have been spotted....

Patience is the virtue..... The fact that this 3rd search happens is great, and the commitment of those involved, despite all the criticasters on this forum, may well lead to a fourth and/or fifth search....

I am humbled by the diligence of mm43 and other including the search party organizers.....

[cc45]

April 22 BEA update

Here is an update April 22 from the BEA.
Information, 22/04/2010
The initial area of research has been fully covered by the end of the week. The Seabed Worker and Anne Candies return to the port of Recife for a technical stop in the following days. After evaluating the situation, the BEA will issue a new update on Tuesday, May 4.

It is odd that the area searched from the BEA image below does not agree with the positions obtained from Lloyds MIU Seasearcher service and mm43's nice plots of those positions....

[Bobman84]

mm43, your posts are much appreciated.

Let's hope this search pays off. I'm sure we'll hear more news in the coming week.

[Potorange]

Stitching mm43 and BEA images together

Just my 0.02$ "out of curiosity" exercise

[rgbrock1]

A what-if scenario:

What happens if, after say 2,3,4, 5... searches, nothing is found? What might the BEA undertake afterwards?

I, for one, certainly hope that part or all of the wreckage is found but I'm wondering what the next step might be if nothing at all is uncovered.

[HazelNuts39]

What-if

rgbrock1;
From today's article in french national newspaper Le Figaro:
"Sans les boites noire, il y aura une bataille entre Air France et Airbus", prognostique un cadre de la compagnie. Les elements que les enqueteurs ont en leur possession ne permettent en effect pas de monter un quelconque scenario ni de definir la part de responsabilite de l'appareil, de l'équipage et de la compagnie ...
EDIT:: Also a 'newsflash' on that paper's website:

Le secrétaire d'Etat aux Transports Dominique Bussereau a annoncé aujourd'hui avoir demandé au Bureau d'enquêtes et d'analyses (BEA) de poursuivre ses recherches en mer pour tenter de retrouver les débris de l'avion d'Air France disparu en juin 2009 au large du Brésil.

HN39

[rgbrock1]

Sehr interesant. Vielleicht. Aber was bedeutet es?

In other words, the French words might be interesting but what does that all mean?!!!!!

[edga23]

translation of the post in French

"Without the black boxes, there will be a legal battle between Air France and Airbus" as predicted by an executive at the company. The elements available do not allow to construct a reliable scenario and do not allow to define what part of the problem can be attributed to the crew and what part to the aircraft.
And a 'newflash'
The transport minister Boussereau asked today to the BEA to go on with their search.

[infrequentflyer789]

Originally Posted by rgbrock1

Sehr interesant. Vielleicht. Aber was bedeutet es?

In other words, the French words might be interesting but what does that all mean?!!!!!

The quote is the interesting bit, if I read it right it says the secretary of state / transport minister (or French equivalent) has "asked" the BEA to keep looking.

Quite how much force the ask has and how much money is attached to it isn't clear.

What is interesting is that it implies that it is known that nothing has been found.

[rgbrock1]

Then I'll ask a different question somehow related. Until AF447 what was the deepest of any wreckage of an aircraft which was successfully located and subsequently recovered? And, where?

[promani]

Le Figaro report

When a sentence is taken from a statement, it can mean something quite different, especially when reported in the media. Did the minister ask in a soft voice, or did he shout down the phone, for example? So I am open minded as to the reason and meaning of the French ministers request to the search participants. Did Le Figaro give any opinion? I always like to get the full facts, not part.

[RatherBeFlying]

My Translation

"Without the black boxes, there will be a battle between Air France and Airbus" prognosticates an officer of the company. The elements that the researchers have in their possession effectively do not allow construction of any scenario nor defining the share of responsibility among the aircraft, crew and company.

[rgbrock1]

ratherbeflying:

Thanks for the translation. This part, however, is dubious:

"The elements that the researchers have in their possession effectively do not allow construction of any scenario nor defining the share of responsibility among the aircraft, crew and company."

Not any scenario? Bulls**t.

I've been following this thread since day 1 i.e., 1 June 2009. There has been a lot of conjecture on this thread, granted. But I have also read plenty of hypothesis by professionals here which not only seem reasonable but highly accurate and probably very close to the mark. And in all these pages and pages of postings I believe what really happened to AF447 is contained herein.

So for the BEA, or whomever was quoted by the above statement, to come up with such a cop-out is disingenuous at best. They have much more data and evidence to work with than anyone here in this thread. Yet they claim that can't construct a scenarios based on this evidence? Bulls**t.

Is it they can't? Or don't want to?

[mm43]

The Search Area?

With the BEA update of today, I have determined that all the positions I have recently plotted were OUT by 1° or 60 minutes in longitude. The references to 31°W should actually be 30°W, and how this error has come about will be investigated. I suspect that the Lloyds data transmitted has been corrupted, but whether that is deliberate or not remains to be sorted.

So shifting all the data I published to the east by 1° confirms what the BEA have published today.

I earlier questioned why the search had proceeded outside of the nominated search zone, when in fact it hadn't. Though on a more sombre note, what the search has proven so far is that the aircraft didn't impact in the areas that have been searched.

Thanks to potorange for stitching the two images together - while I slept.

mm43

[NeoFit]

Hn39
Its seem to me that's a wrong link.
Try:
Paris demande la poursuite des recherches sur le vol AF447 - LExpress.fr