AF447
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If 300 Toyotas crashed and killed the occupants, the model of vehicle would be taken off the road.
I just dont understand how this type of a/c can continue to fly as if nothing happened when 300 people have died. I have a feeling theres another disaster on the way.
The silence is deafening.
I just dont understand how this type of a/c can continue to fly as if nothing happened when 300 people have died. I have a feeling theres another disaster on the way.
The silence is deafening.
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Everyday 300 Toyotas of the same type crash!
There is a statistical difference between 300 examples of the same type experience the same technical malfunnction or one only one example with 300 pax does the same.
If you would have grounded every aircraft that crashed, there wouldn't be any aviation anymore. The only aircraft that never crashed is the A380, and it is only a matter of statistics until one does! (Heaven forbids.)
Dani
There is a statistical difference between 300 examples of the same type experience the same technical malfunnction or one only one example with 300 pax does the same.
If you would have grounded every aircraft that crashed, there wouldn't be any aviation anymore. The only aircraft that never crashed is the A380, and it is only a matter of statistics until one does! (Heaven forbids.)
Dani
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Hi,
Can remind you the school case of the Concorde ..
Only one crashed .. and the entire fleet was grounded.
Explain me this with statistics
Bye.
If you would have grounded every aircraft that crashed, there wouldn't be any aviation anymore
Only one crashed .. and the entire fleet was grounded.
Explain me this with statistics
Bye.
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Can remind you the school case of the Concorde ..
Only one crashed .. and the entire fleet was grounded.
Explain me this with statistics
Only one crashed .. and the entire fleet was grounded.
Explain me this with statistics
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I just dont understand how this type of a/c can continue to fly as if nothing happened when 300 people have died. I have a feeling theres another disaster on the way.
Secondly even if the cause was an issue with this aircraft model, we don't know what the probability of recurrence is to decide whether grounding the fleet is the right response.
Has the 777 been grounded ? They fall out of the sky with both engines rolled back, remember (and we still don't have final report on why - in fact the silence is...). Well, one 777 fell out of the sky anyway - do you have your "feeling" another one is "on the way", or does that feeling just apply to one particular aircraft manufacturer ?
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The answers are in the CVR.
No, waiting for the recovery of the CVR is not the answer. I urge all to continue looking elsewhere. Why close the thread simply because no one wishes to thread on more sensitive issues?
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f others had had the same problems and 'survived', that would tend to point your way.
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Concorde statistics
"Can remind you the school case of the Concorde ..
Only one crashed .. and the entire fleet was grounded.
Explain me this with statistics"
I know this is off-topic, but for the curious, the Concorde went, with just one crash, from being the safest a/c to being the most deadly; from 0 to 1/80,000 flights per crash, or 12 per million miles traveled, compared with the B737's rate of 0.41 per million.
The kicker is, the 737 has flown some 105 million flights compared with Concorde's 80,000 lifetime.
Such are statistics. (Explanation courtesy of Peter Olofsson, author of "Probabilities."
Only one crashed .. and the entire fleet was grounded.
Explain me this with statistics"
I know this is off-topic, but for the curious, the Concorde went, with just one crash, from being the safest a/c to being the most deadly; from 0 to 1/80,000 flights per crash, or 12 per million miles traveled, compared with the B737's rate of 0.41 per million.
The kicker is, the 737 has flown some 105 million flights compared with Concorde's 80,000 lifetime.
Such are statistics. (Explanation courtesy of Peter Olofsson, author of "Probabilities."
If 300 Toyotas crashed and killed the occupants, the model of vehicle would be taken off the road.
I just dont understand how this type of a/c can continue to fly as if nothing happened when 300 people have died. I have a feeling theres another disaster on the way.
The silence is deafening.
I just dont understand how this type of a/c can continue to fly as if nothing happened when 300 people have died. I have a feeling theres another disaster on the way.
The silence is deafening.
I would ride on an A330 every day for the next 5 years rather than drive every day for the next 5 years, complete no-brainer...
That line of thinking must be what got us to the Moon, or maybe it is what has prevented us from returning...
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If no CVR or FDR then what next?
If the day comes where the CVR and/or FDR are not found (i believe they will eventually be found but perhaps not for a long time to come) what would be the next step toward solving this enigma? Will this be relegated to the "unsolved" files or do you think the accident investigators might approach it from a different way?
I'm curious as to how this may progress absent a CVR or FDR. (Without which I would imagine no definitive resolution would be possible?)
I'm curious as to how this may progress absent a CVR or FDR. (Without which I would imagine no definitive resolution would be possible?)
Per Ardua ad Astraeus
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rgb - it depends really on how much more information AF and ABI have that we do not know. More 'wreckage' does not have the potential to 'solve' the puzzle. I guess without the recorders, 'most probable cause' will be determined, and a fair bit of work on reviewing the software, hardware and pilot training issues.
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Mickk,
As already stated on 1st July :
Since entry into service the A330/A340 (same design / two A/C) fleet has accumulated :
- over 27 700 000 flight hours,
- in over 5 200 000 take-offs.
As the AF447 accident is the first one (one too much of course) with no obvious root cause, I do not see how any Airworthiness Authority could mandate a grounding of the fleet.
As already stated on 1st July :
Since entry into service the A330/A340 (same design / two A/C) fleet has accumulated :
- over 27 700 000 flight hours,
- in over 5 200 000 take-offs.
As the AF447 accident is the first one (one too much of course) with no obvious root cause, I do not see how any Airworthiness Authority could mandate a grounding of the fleet.
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If no CVR or FDR then what next?
rgbrock1, to answer this question, maybe we should look back to past cases for which there was no CVR/FDR recovered ?
The outcomes/conclusions of the official investigations can be debated or challenged (with alternative scenarii/explanations being put forward that are equally convincing) even when the CVR/FDR is recovered, a reconstruction of the aircraft is enabled by a wealth of debris, and many data are available.
From the current available data (debris/autopsies), maybe the conditions of impact can be more accurately known (analysis conducted at the CEAT Toulouse) but from this, how could they figure out, with a satisfying degree of confidence, the sequence of events (crew action incl.) that lead a plane in high altitude cruise flight to the surface ?
The absence of new data would just be very sad for those who are desesperate to know how their relatives have left this world, and sad for the air safety (possibly not learning what it should).
Jeff
The outcomes/conclusions of the official investigations can be debated or challenged (with alternative scenarii/explanations being put forward that are equally convincing) even when the CVR/FDR is recovered, a reconstruction of the aircraft is enabled by a wealth of debris, and many data are available.
From the current available data (debris/autopsies), maybe the conditions of impact can be more accurately known (analysis conducted at the CEAT Toulouse) but from this, how could they figure out, with a satisfying degree of confidence, the sequence of events (crew action incl.) that lead a plane in high altitude cruise flight to the surface ?
The absence of new data would just be very sad for those who are desesperate to know how their relatives have left this world, and sad for the air safety (possibly not learning what it should).
Jeff
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The silence from the search is deafening.
The body of the aircraft and the tail fin must have landed in the sea reasonably close together. The aircraft could not have been controllable without it attached.
Given that the farthest separation of the two would occur if the tail fin detached at altitude, and an aircraft then struggling for control wouldn't proceed more than 50 miles, the body of the aircraft should lie within a 50 nm radius of where the tail fin was originally found (with drift for current resolved).
This area cant be too great for a detailed search with modern equipment.
Given that the farthest separation of the two would occur if the tail fin detached at altitude, and an aircraft then struggling for control wouldn't proceed more than 50 miles, the body of the aircraft should lie within a 50 nm radius of where the tail fin was originally found (with drift for current resolved).
This area cant be too great for a detailed search with modern equipment.
Last edited by jungle drums; 22nd Jul 2009 at 19:15.
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From BOAC, whose opinions I respect highly...
You have to understand how difficult it is for one crewmember to suspect another ESPECIALLY when the suspect crew is not here to defend themselves. I abhor the thought that someone would do that to me.
The CVR is my friend. Automation, properly understood and with training and diligence attached is an even better friend. There are previous instances of 'incidents' that might fit the AF447 scenario, and almost no imagination is required to make these incidents 'fit'. But I still believe what we see in the ACARS messages is a result of the upset at cruise. This aircraft behaved as ANY aircraft would on a night like that presented with the same scenario. Is why I answered the post about 're-creating' AF447.
So here we are, long time, no concrete answers. A lot of speculation (including mine), and most of the speculation centers on technical issues ad nauseum.
What I tried to present was where we stand at the moment. We won't know much from the DFDR beyond what we already have from the ACARS. Both probably lost power at the same time. What we WILL learn is from the CVR... what was going on in the cockpit up to and including the departure from cruise flight.
If it is not found, we will be where we are now. Toulouse may find something in the debris inspection that the Braziliians missed, but I doubt it, even with motivational differences.
Every night since this crash, I have pictured the route and it's special challenges, and can empathise with the relatives of the pax AND crew.
Lest we forget, there but for the grace......
Indeed, singpilot's post is spot on, but do not forget we do not know if any other 330s had the same series of 'failures' that night on that route, nor does the fact that 1 Qantas 330 suffered a serious pitch excursion while others flew happily along mean there is not an underlying technical issue. Unfortunately the chances of the CVR being of use are practically nil, so we have to go on what is 'known'. You cannot just fold your arms and say "crew issue, full stop"
The CVR is my friend. Automation, properly understood and with training and diligence attached is an even better friend. There are previous instances of 'incidents' that might fit the AF447 scenario, and almost no imagination is required to make these incidents 'fit'. But I still believe what we see in the ACARS messages is a result of the upset at cruise. This aircraft behaved as ANY aircraft would on a night like that presented with the same scenario. Is why I answered the post about 're-creating' AF447.
So here we are, long time, no concrete answers. A lot of speculation (including mine), and most of the speculation centers on technical issues ad nauseum.
What I tried to present was where we stand at the moment. We won't know much from the DFDR beyond what we already have from the ACARS. Both probably lost power at the same time. What we WILL learn is from the CVR... what was going on in the cockpit up to and including the departure from cruise flight.
If it is not found, we will be where we are now. Toulouse may find something in the debris inspection that the Braziliians missed, but I doubt it, even with motivational differences.
Every night since this crash, I have pictured the route and it's special challenges, and can empathise with the relatives of the pax AND crew.
Lest we forget, there but for the grace......
Last edited by singpilot; 22nd Jul 2009 at 18:53. Reason: Grammar.
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Hi,
admiral ackbar
It's not really a universal answer ...
Think about ..
Certainly some passengers of the AF447 had drive cars all their lifetime and still alive able to take place in a plane (some certainly for the first time in their lifetime) and now are no more there for make the most dangerous thing (as you tell) .. drive their car.
Can we speak of bad luck ?
And can we speack of bad luck for one who was not allowed to board the plane and lost life day after in a car crash ?
Bye.
admiral ackbar
I would ride on an A330 every day for the next 5 years rather than drive every day for the next 5 years, complete no-brainer...
Think about ..
Certainly some passengers of the AF447 had drive cars all their lifetime and still alive able to take place in a plane (some certainly for the first time in their lifetime) and now are no more there for make the most dangerous thing (as you tell) .. drive their car.
Can we speak of bad luck ?
And can we speack of bad luck for one who was not allowed to board the plane and lost life day after in a car crash ?
Bye.
Last edited by LeandroSecundo; 22nd Jul 2009 at 20:12.
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And I understand this is a delicate question. Some experimented pilots have their intimate view but a public forum may not be appropriate to express them.
But pilots on this forum could share their views about how they think they (themselves) could have reacted in a given context, which clues/signals/indicators they would have relied upon, or how they (themselves) could have been deceived, or overwhelmed, by some specific combinations of failures and/or false alarms (instead of presuming what others could have done).
And if the BEA has questions about possible crew reactions in given contexts, there won't be any speculation or reluctance: there will be multiple crews of similar composition & experience formed and tested in simulators under varied hypothesis.
Jeff
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AF447 crash may have similarities to Aeroperu flight 603. Both had Loss of vital instruments during flight and subsequent loss of control. Both AC were lost over water at night. Both AC had false warnings.
The difference is that AF447 was not in radio contact with anyone and was in bad weather. Would a study of Aeroperu flight 603 be worth consideration?
I'm not saying someone covered AF447's instrument probes with tape, but the end results of these two accidents seem to have some similarities.....
The difference is that AF447 was not in radio contact with anyone and was in bad weather. Would a study of Aeroperu flight 603 be worth consideration?
I'm not saying someone covered AF447's instrument probes with tape, but the end results of these two accidents seem to have some similarities.....