"There was an in-flight break-up above the altitude of 30 thousand feet. We are very positive about this"............................caused by WHAT??

I wonder if the public will ever be told, during our lives, the real cause of this disaster?
The Pan-Am "tragedy" (during military exercises off the coast) might prove a handy alibi here as well.

What Government ANYWHERE is ever going to admit that its defence forces shot down an airline civilian passenger aircraft.

Only in recent days has the TRUE story of the chopper that was shot down in the Afghanistan war, been released. At the time, it was stringently DENIED that the helicopter was downed by enemy fire, but rather that due to "foggy conditions, extremely bad weather, and heavy snow falls" the 'copter crashed.

If the story line to be pushed is one that this B747-200 "broke up" in flight, then as responsible professionals, we should call for the IMMEDIATE GROUNDING of ALL -200 and -300 747's.

Factual New York Times article

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There are now rumours startiing to be carried by some of the local media that there was a live fire military exercise going on somewhere in the area. At this point in time I have no idea if the report is accurate.

CI and TWA flight 800
 

Could there be any similarity between TWA Flight 800 and China AL accident?
If I am right, TWA was also a B747-200 and also exploded in the middle of the air.
this was just a thought...

Just so long as we're speculating wildly, what about PRC fighters that sometimes bump into US spyplanes. Did that military radar that saw the CI 747 break up spot any other a/c in vicinity?

TWA 800 was a 747-100. One of the first ones built and one of the very highest time/cycle aircraft in existance.

Cheers
Wino

I knew an ALPA accident investigator who spent a year full-time on the TWA 800 investigation. He said absolutely no evidence of a missile. No shrapnel marks or punctures that could be lined up through multiple surfaces.

Also, the China Air flight was way too high for a surface to air missile.

I'll say this, though, whether it was a bomb or structural failure, this accident will impact all of us.

Does this seem odd to anyone? If the plane broke up that fast, would there be time for a person to bleed on a seat? I'd think a break-up that fast would preclude any body fluids going anywhere quickly enough to cause a stain.

Glance at the Taipei weather shows that temperatures have been in the 80s-90s there. Departure at 14:50 would be at the high point of the day's temperature cycle.

> If the story line to be pushed is one that this B747-200 "broke up" in flight, then as responsible professionals, we should call for the IMMEDIATE GROUNDING of ALL -200 and -300 747's.
<

As long as your a responsible professional could you enlighten us on why your proposed grounding stops at the -200 and -300 models and does not extend to all aircraft and types.

Me thinks that there is more ignorance than understanding to such a proposal.

Yeah Huck, I know of a National Government, that said they had absolute evidence that the Libiyans were responsible for downing of Pan Am 103 :eek:

Huck...

<<Also, the China Air flight was way too high for a surface to air missile>>

Oh well, my 10 years in the RAF on fast jets obviously taught me all the wrong stuff, and I was wasting my time worrying about SAMs at altitudes above 30,000'...

You presumably are a military expert making statements like this?

NoD

PS And what height do you think Gary Powers was in his U2 when shot down by a SAM-2 in the 1960s...??

Were there any CB's in the area?

Sorry Capt. Nigel in my mind I was thinking of shoulder launched SAM's of the terrorist variety. Admittedly a ground based system with intercept radar could do it, as could a missile "gone ballistic" as happened near Turkey recently.

All I can say to El Grifo is that ALPA pilots wouldn't cover up for Clinton's government, if said government had killed over 50 fellow crew and non-revving employees, as in the TWA accident. The pilot I spoke with lost several good friends on 800.

By the way, my prayers and (mealy mouthed) condolences to those who died yesterday, as well.

Isn't it amazing how all these "experts" suddenly appear.
why don't we wait for the FDR tapes are read.

remember - lots of "jumbos" flying around the world all the time without mishap.

Sorry Huck, I am a little confused. are we talking ALPA Investigators or ALPA Pilots here. Surely totally different breeds of animal.

On the ALPA pilot issue I surely agree with you.

As far as the prayers and Eh, "condolences" are concerned, I suppose we all have our different beliefs and "limitations"

Since a condolence is something which is normally offered, or delivered in person to the families of the deceased. I just find it a little sick making, to see it rattled out in text, on a site which few of the victims, if any, will ever read.

Main reason being of course is that they are eh, no longer with us.

It is truly meaningless and a little silly.

The four previous 747 hull losses that began while the aircraft was apparently at FL 300 or higher were: KAL007 (shot down); AI 182 (bomb); PA103 (bomb); SAA 295 (Combi) (fire in a freight container being carried on main deck). UA 811 was at FL 230 when the cargo door ripped away, taking a large section of fuselage skin with it.

The Ukranian surface to air missile that brought down Air Sibir 1812 was supposedly fired from a position 250 km. distant.

All right all right I promise never to post again after more than 2 MGD's. When I said "ALPA Accident Investigator" I meant a TWA line pilot who was an ALPA volunteer accident investigator. TWA's insurers actually paid to have a few of those guys taken offline and put on the investigation for a long time. They participated in the NTSB side of the investigation, which of course was at the mercy of the FBI team. But they did eventually get full access to the recovered pieces that were hung on chicken wire and steel jigs to "reassemble" the fuselage (this monstrosity, I hear, is going to be placed at an NTSB facility for training purposes).

As to condolences, point taken. I think we're all just expressing our own feelings, for our own sakes. This one could be particulary bad because, unlike most, pilots can't see where the crew could have avoided it. Explosion/structural failure accidents are pretty nasty.

Wonder if section 41 termination work had been carried out on this aeroplane.....or repairs to the aft pressure bulkhead. Breaking into 4 large pieces seems quite .... unusual.

Frangible:

According to Taiwanese media the military said that there's no exercises, planes, missiles or ufos. There's nothing.

one more note:

The 747 broke into 4 pieces. The 747 was originally heading south-west (to HK) but 1 of the 4 pieces of the plane ended up going north-east. :eek: