Lifting a nose wheel is not the same as lifting a main wheel. Due to the centre of gravity almost over the main wheels it would mean having to lift almost the whole weight of the aircraft, about 233,000kg for an A330. Lifting the nose is a a couple of 1000kgs I would have thought.

I would have thought that the forces on the nosewheel when towed are caused by wind, rolling resistance of the tyres and inertia.

Although the rolling resistance will increase with the weight and number of wheels, inertia potentially creates the greatest force.

If acceleration/ braking is regulated then the inertia loads could be controlled to within safe limits, so the effect of aircraft weight is diminished?

Or have I got this wrong as well?

The greater the plane's mass the greater the inertia, then as you say, rolling resistance (tyres), friction (bearings and ground surface), gradient, wind etc. all add to the task. A very smooth and steady acceleration from standstill to taxi speed will certainly reduce strain whatever is being towed.