Airbus forsees demand for 25,000 aircraft in the next 20 years
 

Yesterday at a press conference in London Airbus announced they anticipate $3.1trillion worth of aircraft (some 25,000) will be delivered over the next 20 years (not all for airbus). They also anticioate RPK's will increase 4.7% on average yearly until 2028. I must say everyone at the conference, myself included were amazed at just how positive they were about the future.

See Airbus' press release here.


If airbus are right, surely with all the extra passengers more pilots are going to be needed.

Yes, and by 2028 there will also be 8 trillion trillion people flying every year :ugh: Airbus are hardly likely to predict a decline are they. It always make me laugh when I hear predictions. It was once predicted that the streets of London would be covered in millions of tons of horse manure, then someone invented the car! Personally, I think declining supplies of, and rising prices of, petroleum products will put paid to such optimistic predictions.

But hey, don't let the facts get in the way of a good story. I advise all humans aged 18-25 to start training now :ok:

Airbus said the A340-300 was ideal for the market and would dovetail nicely into the major flow of air traffic doing .84Mach to .86Mach from the Far East to Europe each night. Yeah right!

Airbus have a history of telling lies about the performance of their aircraft and it is possible that this propensity for bull**** has reached over to their appreciation of future markets,

Well,if it's Airbus saying it, it must be rubbish :rolleyes:

So what about Boeing's forecast here -> http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html for 29,000 aircraft over the same period, then? Would that be more to your taste?

p-k-b

Future Growth of Air Travel
 

Not sure of the rate but air travel will continue to grow. The worlds economy is moving to Asia and as they get money people will travel.
THe number I would like to see in RPK/per capita in Europe and North America compared to Asia. Factor in the relative size of the populations and the growth potential becomes clear.
Fuel cost will be an issue but the technology keeps advancing and aviation seems to wring a bit more out of every gallon every year. No reason that will not continue.
As no one in Asia has signed on to any green schemes there will be no cap in that direction.

20driver

Let's see hmmm.... thats 25000 / 240 months... so that's about 104 aircraft per month.... (rounded off).....:D

Forecasts by airframe manufacturers have the primary aim of reassuring shareholders/stakeholders that the future is rosy.

Years back, the McDonnell Douglas forecasts had the reputation of telling it like it is, and were far more trusted than the Boeing and Airbus efforts, which were evidently aimed at promoting their own products. When Boeing took over MDD they inherited their forecasters and for a short while the quality of their forecasts improved, then these poor guys were given the choice of twisting their prognostications in line with what the company wanted of them or ...

4.7% next year - maybe. 4.7% the year after - possibly. 4.7% every year for the next 20 years - dream on.

For quite a while B. showed air cargo growth at 6.4% w/wide

I jiggered around with the sub-sets of their numbers, and came to the conclusion that their forecast resulted in (for example) the entire population of Colombia living in cities built on stilts out in the ocean, so that the whole of Columbia could be one huge flower farm.

ummm

Airbus May be Right
 

Don't know.
There are plenty of old aircraft in the current fleet, especially in the U.S. and parts of Asia, which will need replacing. Fleet reductions have mostly represented getting rid of the old stuff, which there is no need to replace in the current economic environment.
Fuel costs have moderated since their peak, but any increase in fuel cost helps improve the business case for getting rid of the old iron and buying new, more efficient aircraft.
Travel has grown, and growth will resume with the end of the current economic turmoil. The overall trend has been up.
If we consider the Airbus forecast to cover all forms of airliner, then I think Airbus may be pretty close to what we will see over the next couple of decades.
As long as people want to travel, there will be airlines flying airliners to get them there.

Bravo, sir. That is a far more courageous and far more accurate statement than you'll get from industry forecasters.

IATA issued NINE successive forecast figures of an industry profit for 2008. They were wrong nine times.

If a forecaster ever gets it right, it will almost certainly be for the wrong reasons.

What will the price of oil be in 2028!:eek:

More likely, many governments will try and legislate commercial aviation out of existence like the UK. That should reduce the future growth.

If building airliners is your business, it follows that you have to take an optimistic view when investing money in programs.
Refering to an earlier post by SSK, is it possible that MD killed itself by under-investing in programs, based upon less optimistic forecasts?
Certainly the last couple of MD programs could not be called sucessful (MD-11, MD-90), largly because the company would not invest enough to create new designs, but instead developed "new" aircraft on the backs of old ones. Worse yet, both aircraft entered service without sufficient development, seriously honking off the customers. What if MD had thrown caution to the winds, and developed their own 777? What if MD had gone to the expense of developing a completely new narrow-body twin?
Part of what senior management gets paid for is to know when to bet the company. Boeing has done so a few times and Boeing survives, having consumed MD. The only less than sucessful Boeing commercial jet program I can think of was the 717, the irony being that it was inherited from MD.

On a point of order.......

Airbus and Boeing are forecasting new aircraft deliveries. For most of their customers, this probably means replacing their gas-guzzlers with new and more efficient aircraft with lower seat-mile costs, not increasing their fleet. Airlines are going to have to do that to survive, hence the manufacturers' confidence. And the number is not large, seen against the global fleet.

Their forecasts do NOT, of themselves, necessarily depend on an increase in passenger traffic. Although an increase (ie the RPK forecast) is part of the equation, the sales forecast could probably be accomplished without it, and the RPK number is probably just stuck in there to make their customers more confident about the future.

They might well mean that the market in converting old aircraft into restaurants is going to increase hugely, as well as the market in used aluminium futures.

So I would counsel caution to every human being aged 18-25 thinking of investing in an ATPL.

rose tinted optimism
 

Rose tinted EXTREME optimism I believe:rolleyes:

:ok:I didn't read much of the article, but the industry could be poised for huge gains for one simple reason, that being the economy now and dormant aircraft. Simply put, aircraft that don't fly rot - the cost of putting them back in the air with calendar inspections, etc., becomes too great once they are parked......so.......when the world economy starts humming again, expect some big aircraft orders. Hope it pans out! :cool:

BA/MD
 

McDonnell Douglas bought Boeing with Boeing's money now MD's senior management is calling the shots. The proof is the 787 which is a colossal disaster. The company who did the electrical on the A380 which caused all their delays is the sole supplier for the 787 just one example and they keep blaming it on the strike???

All the while i thought Boeing bought MD.... hmmm.. :ugh:

No doubt this 'prediction' will be quoted in all the major FTOs glossy brochures to hook in the thick, desperate and suggestable.

In twenty years time, i'll be nearing my retirement..... :(