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Aviate1138 ponders....
So how many hours out of each 24 will it/they now be test flying? If there is a shortage of bolts presumably they won't be able to build more [test] aircraft than first needed. What are the penalties for late delivery? Airlines might not be pleased to collect their early ordered aircraft knowing they have been thrashed a bit to meet the delivery deadline - I suppose a little cash easement will be negotiated. Look forward to the 787's first flight. Always a special moment when any aircraft, big or small, lifts off the ground for the first time. :) |
So when was the much trumpeted 1st flight originally forecast ??
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It was originally pencilled in for August 27th.
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In order to roll it out on 7/8/7 (8th July 07, American-style date), they had to assemble it with 'temporary fasteners' according to Press reports today. A triumph of marketing imperative over engineering reality, as it were, which might whimsically be expressed mathematically as :D>>:8
So they have now had to take the prototype to pieces to re-assemble it properly, and one wonders just how small those pieces are. The paperwork associated with undoing and re-doing a flight vehicle must be a one-off nightmare. |
"Original 1st flight pencilled in for August 27th."
Three months delay, add one third (Augustine's Law). First flight around Xmas, probably still with splitpins holding the landing gear in place. 777 needed 11 months flight test to certification. Boeing said 9 months for the 787, now says 6 months, whistling in the wind. Applying Augustine's Law again, I would expect a CofA in Oct 2008 and first delivery just before the end of the year. Anybody taking any bets? |
So in reality, the roll out was not a real aeroplane??
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Real aeroplane, temporary fasteners and no wiring.
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So flight certification to be completed in four months. This will be some record and i certainly will not get on a new aircraft made out of untried parts after only four months of check. Just for interest i posted on the Rumours and News forum regarding this and it has disappeared after e few replies.
elac2 |
quote from Flight:
The aircraft was assembled with thousands of temporary fasteners as Boeing’s main suppliers reported a major shortage of aviation-quality rivets for the main fuselage and wing structures. |
Originally Posted by Seloco
Why does it need fasteners - I thought this thing was all glued together?!
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Shoot the Programme Managers !!
My reason for querying the originally forecast date for 1st flight is that there's an irrefutable law in Programme Management that e.g if the 1st flight is,say, 1 year away then you might get away with a 3 month slip without being shot, if its 6 months then maybe 1 month would be permitted, 1 month maybe a week and a week away maybe a 1 day slip....on the day of the 1st flight if its posted for 1100 then its probably going to get airborne about 1500...I speak from personal experience (Sea Harrier FA2 & Avro RJ)....so basically Boeing Programme Managment has screwed up big time ( 1 week away 3 month slip)....just what were their Senior Managment doing -this must have been known as early as 1st quarter 2007. ChristiaanJ was spot on in this respect. The 1st delivery must be in question as earlier 'posters' have pointed out.....the other irrefutable law of Programme Management is if you've got a problem then the sooner you let your customer know the less painful in the long run it will be.
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If an aluminium skinned a/c gets "dinged" it's patched.
How do you repair a similar problem on a composite? Agreed there are sections of a/c such as tails, flaps etc. But the fusalage? How big would the portable autoclave need to be? :confused: |
What is really noticeable is that the Airbus 380/350 knockers are strangely quiet at the moment. Avoiding "Aprés nous les deluges" perhaps? :)
Just a thought...... |
If an aluminium skinned a/c gets "dinged" it's patched. How do you repair a similar problem on a composite? http://bjones4.com/temp/787_patch.jpg The necessary materials are provided IIRC as part of the 787 maintenence support package. Small dings can be repaired in an hour and last for ~5yr, more major problems get an overnight treatment that is good until the next major check which on the 787 will be at 12yr intervals. |
Don't you love them. 59 mins, of which 35 is cooking time, leaving me 24 mins to get the kit shipped out from main base, find out how to use it, and get it finished.
Reminds me of the 45min engine change on the B747! |
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071010/...e/boeing787_13
Oh well.. I said (post #64) : "Original 1st flight pencilled in for August 27th." Three months delay, add one third (Augustine's Law). First flight around Xmas, probably still with splitpins holding the landing gear in place. 777 needed 11 months flight test to certification. Boeing said 9 months for the 787, now says 6 months, whistling in the wind. Applying Augustine's Law again, I would expect a CofA in Oct 2008 and first delivery just before the end of the year. Anybody taking any bets? Already "six" months late for the first flight (eight, rather). Now announced for April 2008, so let's say mid to late June 2008. First deliveries August 2009? Any takers? "Always add one-third" |
787 delivery delays announced
Just read this report on BBC News that the Dreamliner is 6 months behind schedule....:bored:
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Ouch!
The Boeing Company [NYSE:BA] today announced a six-month delay in its planned initial deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner due to continued challenges completing assembly of the first airplanes. Deliveries of the strong-selling Dreamliner are now slated to begin in late November or December 2008, versus an original target of May 2008. First flight is now anticipated around the end of first quarter 2008. The company said the financial impact of the delay would not be material to earnings and that its earnings guidance for 2007 and 2008 remained unchanged. "We are disappointed over the schedule changes that we are announcing today," said Boeing Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Jim McNerney. "Notwithstanding the challenges that we are experiencing in bringing forward this game-changing product, we remain confident in the design of the 787, and in the fundamental innovation and technologies that underpin it." Early last month, Boeing announced a delay in the planned first flight of the 787 citing ongoing challenges with out-of-sequence production work, including parts shortages, and remaining software and systems integration activities. The company also acknowledged increasing risk to the delivery schedule, indicating that the margin to accommodate unexpected issues had been eliminated. The newly revised schedule for first flight and first delivery addresses the production challenges and restores margin for the program to deal with issues that may be uncovered in final ground or flight testing. Boeing also said today that flight control software and systems integration activities are not pacing items in the revised schedule for first flight. "While we have made some progress over the past several weeks completing work on our early production airplanes and improving parts availability across the production system, the pace of that progress has not been sufficient to support our previous plans for first delivery or first flight," said Scott Carson, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "We deeply regret the impact these delays will have on our customers, and we are committed to working with them to minimize any disruption to their plans. "The most important commitment we've made to our customers is to deliver an airplane that performs to their expectations over the long life of the program. These changes to our schedule will help ensure we do just that," Carson said. |
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