flightknight

Please contribute your thoughts and knowledge about the future of aviation in India. Replies from folks with a finance background will be helplful.
http://www.financialexpress.com/news...400-cr/270956/

Passenger 07

As it takes at least one generation to build a solid infrastructure network (Roads and railways), it is clear that the development of India, like some other countries in the region (Vietnam, Burma, Indonesia....), depends on aviation. Even if there are some market corrections due to a too fast mushrooming, aviation has a bright future in India for the next 20 years. (See studies of Airbus and Boeing)
However, concerning the workforce, flock of Indian students are invading Flying schools with only one criteria in mind: costs. The results is that, too often, the quality of training is quite poor, and a basic ICAO/FAA CPL-IR is not sufficient in itself to be first officer on an Airliner. Those students when back in India are useless and Airlines need to recruit qualified expatriates.
Social tensions are high because those students complain against expat recruitment, not understanding that they are not suitable for the job.
Corrections have to be done, more selection and a training of quality as priority, financial institutions must continue to support aviation industry in India because the future is bright, but they must be more careful in their choices: quality and professionalism should be the main criteria over an apparent low cost..

Left Wing

Passenger 07... u hit the nail on the head.... cheapest training is not the best way to get a job...

Fair.Pilot

Rumours are circulating that in a couple of years there'll be no expats pilots in India. Even now can be seen, direct intake for Capt. is slowing down.

Recently the Indian Aviation Minister was in South east Asia, that's where this info came from.

Left Wing

there is a recent directive from DGCA to all airlines to submit a expat phase out plan by 2009. TRI & TRE expats are not subject to this.

Microlightlover

DGCA is dreaming and if they insist in this 2009 stuff and they are going to paralise their growing industry. India could have the pilots that theire airlines need, but the main responsable for the pilot shortage in India is DGCA with their STUPID convalidation process and corruption they are hurting their industry badly; you just do not make airlines captains in 1500 hrs and if to convalidate your linceses takes you 2 years and bribes you are talking of 6 to 7 years for the new pilots to upgrade to the left seat and expat pilots are expensive. Second the airlines have to take a more proactive action in the initial training of thier future pilots with training contracts with schools abroad and quality control inspections of sush schools (USA please not JAA). Any way as long as the DGCA do not change their stupid mentality I dont see Indian airlines competing in fair terms with other airlines from Asia and the Gulf that right now are taking the big slice of the very profitable indian international market. DGCA insist in protect their ineficient govermet airline with the 5 years 20 airplanes rule and in the process they are leaving the market open for foreing airlines. SO DGCA do not push airlines for the expats pilots in theire payroll, instead take the time to loock at yourself and the politicians that rule you and do something to modernise and change your mentality that is 50 years behind your industry. Retraining of the air controlers is paramount, airlines are loosing millions each year in waisted fuel doe to stupid 10 miles separation and incompetent controlers that can not handle the trafict. By the way I´m an expat.

Nevrekar

A lot of what is mentioned in newspapers is political posturing and in the end does not really affect the expat rank and file. The 2009 date is a mandate to submit a plan to phase out expats, and just that. While it is true that expats will eventually be phased out, in my opinion I think we are a few years from that here in India. My best guess would be a slowing of expat hiring after 2012. The only way that might get accelerated is if there is an economic downturn or a sudden growth stagnation leading some airlines to fold. In that case the need will be proportionally limited. Given that some airlines have a 2500 hr requirement to command, it will take a new hire around 5 years to get to that mark based on averages. Bear in mind that that's just the minimum requirement. Once they get there they will have to have cleared all their exams and be assessed for upgrade. Not everyone with 2500 hrs will get their command at the first bench mark.

Actually I feel India is going to have trouble in recruiting pilots in the future because other countries have realized the need as well and have started to up the terms & conditions in order to attract and retain applicants. The major competitors to India will be China, Korea, and all the Gulf states. The age 65 rule in the USA being implemented is also causing a minor impact.

A big point that airlines must realize that when it comes to expat pilot who are on a contract--terms & conditions are the key along with quality of life.
If someone is on a contract on single status, for the most part they don't really care where they are--most hotels look the same!!

To some extent India is paying the price for not having invested in infrastructure which is evident for most anyone that has been here.
They are playing catch up, but as the growth is continuing it is getting even harder to do so. The ATC system and the airports will just not be able to handle all the growth that is underway. Perhaps, just perhaps this is why the Govt is attempting to regulate growth of private airlines.

flightknight

Thank you'll for contributing to this thread. Please continue to update us of the ongoing situation in Indian Aviation.

silent_scream

Great thread. Great Info. My take , they need to organize things a bit. (Easy to say , difficult to implement , but has to start someday.....)

Read a little bit in Times of India. Sharing it.

Bubble bursts: Pilots now join jobless list

Manju V | TNN



Mumbai: Nightmarish times are back for Indian pilots fresh out of flying schools. As many as 600 Commercial Pilot Licence (CPL)-holders are currently jobless and engaged in a nerve-wracking competition to enter that coveted cockpit even as vacancies for the post of trainee pilots have become as rare as on-time flight departures.
On Monday morning, 400 pilots appeared for Kingfisher Airlines’s written tests conducted in a college in Kandivli (E). “Although the number of vacancies this time was not known, the airline had about 250 candidates for its written tests held in January to fill just four posts of ATR trainee pilots. The two pilots selected for A320 trainee pilot jobs were self-financed candidates, which means they were to spend about Rs 20 lakh each on their type-rating (training to fly a particular aircraft),’’ says an aspirant.
On Saturday, as many as 550 pilots trooped into a school in Air-India Colony, Kalina, for written tests for 15 trainee pilot jobs (General Category, the rest were reserved for SCs/STs). “We heard that about 250 applications were rejected. Considering that not all pilots who applied would be jobless—since an AI job is the most coveted one in the industry—by a conservative estimate there must be about 600 jobless CPL holders out there,’’ says a senior commander, whose son managed to clear the “tough’’ AI written tests.
“The Kingfisher Airlines written tests as usual were very tough,” says another aspiring 21-year-old, who has appeared for seven written tests until now with no luck. Poaching deters freshers’ prospects
Mumbai: An increasing number of Commercial Pilot Licence (CPL)-holders are struggling for jobs. One of the 400 candidates who appeared for a Kingfisher Airlines written test for the post of ATR trainee pilots on Monday said, “There are a lot of people out there with either the right contacts or money.’’
A student spends anything between Rs 12 lakh and Rs 30 lakh to get a CPL. Most take bank loans, and of late the aviation boom had attracted aspirants even from not so well-to-do families.
However, there are jobs in the flying training industry which, observers say, CPL holders are probably unaware of. “We’re offering Rs 1.5 lakh per month to fresh CPL holders to work as instructors, but there are no takers,’’ rues Capt Yashraj Tongia of Yash Air, a flying school based in Ujjain. Capt Tongia says that the flying training industry needs about 50 instructors right now.
“What is the definition of jobless? If one doesn’t get an airlines job, that doesn’t mean there are no other pilot jobs in the aviation industry,’’ he adds. “Even airline jobs will be generated soon, because of an average of 150 aircraft being imported each year. There will be an annual demand for 1,200 pilots at least for the next five years.’’
Another reason for rookie CPL holders being shunned is the pilot-poaching phenomenon in the aircraft charter industry.
P K Ratta, Chairman, Million Air, the Raymonds aircraft charter company, says, “Pilot poaching is happening big time but no one will hire a fresh CPL holder. Why should I hire them and train them only for others to poach? Moreover, corporates prefer highly experienced commanders and first officers, and so foreign pilots are the only solution.’’
Airline commanders opine that it is high time the process of replacing foreign pilots with Indians began. “The airline I work for has 15 foreign co-pilots when so many Indians are jobless. It again took in 52 expats for senior commander’s post last month. Now they are only hiring foreign commanders for their Europe-US leg,’’ says an airline commander. Another international carrier has kept three of its long-haul aircraft on ground for the last one month for want of experienced commanders. “They won’t train their numerous experienced commanders of medium-haul aircraft. They would rather prefer to hire expatriates,’’ says a commander.
Incidentally, this is not the first time that the Indian airline industry is seeing a glut of fresh CPL holders. In the late ‘70s, the Sanjay Gandhi report which was prepared for the same reasons put a ban on airlines recruiting foreign pilots as scores of Indians were jobless. “The report said that an expat pilot can be brought in only for six months, and it became a rule. Later, in the ’90s, East West Airlines and Damania got that rule changed,’’ says Capt M Ranganathan, a B 737 commander.

Passenger 07

This is confirming my point: All those Indian students rushing in Flight Training School with only in mind the cost, come back home and are useless because their training was of too poor quality and also because they were not selected and probably not suitable for the Job.
SELECTION:
In Thailand for example only a quarter of the students get through the Thai Royal Medicine test (Not only Medical but all the psycho battery) and Airlines are selecting amidst them and TG takes 1/8 of those rescapees....In Europe similar ratios can be found. Even, now in Middle East the selection begin to be strict
TRAINING
The FAA system is insufficient in itself for producing a First Officer. Major US Airlines require experience and University Credentials or a sound military experience. The only Ab initio scheme conducted during Clinton era has failed in 2000. (Delta Academy if I remember was doing the experience)
More, some countries training under this scheme are under the standard. (Civil Aviation system in Philippines recently downgraded for example)
The lack of selection and the poor training are to be condemned as the roots of this situation. We can predict that Banks will react and stop to deliver loan in a short while as they will be unable to recover their money from most of students.

Nevrekar

Unfortunately for some youngsters, it has become a sense of entitlement. As the article mentioned, not too many takers for the CFI positions. In fact many won't even consider the ATR! They want the electric jet. Partly because of the hype, it is something everyone now expects. Another good point mentioned is the FAA system of licensing. It is not actually set up for someone to jump to a sophisticated jet aircraft. In the past, the USA normally had a progression that was typically followed (not always, and not for military pilots either). After you got all your ratings and around 250-300 hrs if you were aspiring to be an airline pilot, you also began working on a college degree. Then this was the way you typically progressed:

1. CPL/IR/ME rating 250 hrs.
2. CFI/II/MEI Ratings.
3. Instructed for around 1-2 years--1500-2000 hrs.
4. Tried hard to get any kind of ME time or ME instructor time.
5. Tried hard to get a charter ME right seat job
6. ME time around 500 hrs minimum.
7. Started applying for first airline commuter/charter job (King Air-1900,ATR).
8. Worked at Commuter airline to obtain ME airline time. Tried to get command as soon as seniority permited (Anywhere from 2-8 years).
9. After obtaining PIC time there, either continued on that track or applied to major or national airlines. By that time you had 3,000-5000 hrs.
10. New Hire F/O at airline with above time. Upgrade at major airline anywhere from 3 years to 15 years!
11. There are some 15 year F/O's whose seniority number has yet to come!
12. In the 70's-80's for many command only came towards the end of their career, around age 50 plus. Deregulation changed all that.

It has been great for the gals/guys who have been hired here in the past 2-3 years. For most being hired at 21 or less, their future is quite secure assuming they can pass their medical and required checks. For others, it's going to be slim pickings and desperation, finally demanding a Govt. bailout.
Another solution that comes to mind--why not offer these candidates slots in the armed forces and cancel their loans for time served. They will get valuable experience, and serve their country. Not entirely a bad concept.
It will solve the unemployment issue in the short term.

flightknight

Another solution that comes to mind--why not offer these candidates slots in the armed forces and cancel their loans for time served. They will get valuable experience, and serve their country. Not entirely a bad concept.
It will solve the unemployment issue in the short term.

This is a great suggestion!!!

masalama

fully agree that there needs to be a system of gaining experience before someone gets that first airline job, but GA in India has a long way to go but it's getting there slowly....
as for the suggestion that the Armed forces taking the CPL holders, the coast gaurd has a program which is advertised once in a while...not too sure about other forces though ...plus they have one of the toughest screening processes and many would find it hard to crack.....

masalama...

Passenger 07

There are two proven systems which are working (But both requires a selection as a primary requisite)
1) The FAA / ICAO system which has to be completed with a sound experience acquired in General Aviation as FI or other positions or in Military/Police...
2) The JAA system which is designed for producing low hour First Officers as Europe has a poor General Aviation and small Air Forces for gaining experience. But the JAR scheme is very demanding and more costly.

Students should evaluate what they will do at the output of their training, or joining a school as FI or investing more in a quality training. Banks should provide loans only if a selection process has been successfully accomplished.
It is the medium term interest of everybody, in the Civil Aviation Business, to stabilise the situation and avoid a sudden and excessive reaction of Banks stopping the possibility of student loans. Similar situations have happened in Europe 15/20 years ago and the overeacting banks have disrupted some businesses.

Left Wing

Earlier in 2007 AI grounded its new 777's due to poor planning to train pilots...now they are headed the same route for the 737NG's.

Why does AI not learn from its mistakes......

Al Fakhem

Left Wing:

AI has proven again and again that it is an organization (I use the word as distinct from "enterprise") that is incapable of learning.

Look at India's geography: half-way between Europe and the Far East/Oceania. Ideal for an enterprising airline to get a fat slice of this huge traffic. They've somehow managed to figure that out in Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and more recently in the Gulf. Years ago, in fact.

AI's fleet size has been insufficient to handle even the somewhat modest pax figures of the past. Check many of their flights listed: they are actually code-shares using other carriers' equipment.

It would be cruel thinking to expect any sudden change in their management capabilities. Their priority has been to provide jobs for family and friends so they can get cheap travel.

flightknight

Who do you think will survive the "red ink" crisis ?. Who has the best management + business model + contingecy plan + transportation structure ++. Please contribute your knowledge.

Passenger 07

It is a complex alchimy:
- Political issues, best relationships to get the juicy lines
- Technical issues (flight operations, Maintenance, Human resources...)
- financial: strongest assets or bank supports
- commercial fleet management and marketing

You have to analyse in depth all those parameters before answering. At individual level, we do not have enough data to answer except if you are involved in research groups and have the information.

Nevrekar

Mumbai: India’s cash-starved airlines plan to raise at least $4 billion (Rs15,88crore) in 2008-09 to fund new planes, expand networks and help tide over a projected combined loss of $700 million this fiscal. The fund-raising will be the largest ever by the country’s carriers as some of them start or get ready to fly overseas routes.
In the current fiscal year, the country’s airlines raised just about $1 billion.
State-owned National Aviation Co. of India Ltd, or Nacil, which operates Air India, Jet Airways (India) Ltd, Deccan Aviation Ltd, Paramount Airways India Ltd and Kingfisher Airlines Ltd are the leading airline companies that plan to raise funds by offloading equity and raising debt.
DEBT ON RADAR (Graphic)
Most of them are also knocking on the doors of US and European credit agencies for financing aircraft acquisition.
The airlines have no option but to raise fresh funds for their capital expenditure as some of them are acquiring widebody planes for international operations, said an analyst who tracks the aviation business for an international brokerage. “A bigger widebody plane will cost $100 million. Airlines will end up diluting their equity to acquire these planes. It is going to be a tough time for them as the business is highly volatile worldwide and airlines are making losses internationally,” he said, declining to be identified.
Nacil, for instance, plans to raise $1.5 billion to fund fleet expansion and meet the cost of daily operations. The firm, into which Air India and Indian Airlines merged last year giving it a combined fleet of 140 planes, is buying 111 aircraft from plane makers such as Boeing Co. and Airbus SAS.
Nacil has already appointed Standard Chartered Bank as a facilitating institution to raise funds from US’ Export-Import Bank for buying planes from Boeing. It is also tying up with other financial institutions for tapping funds from European credit agencies.
“The subprime crisis and liquidity crunch, besides hardening of the Libor (London interbank offered rate), have made” it difficult for airlines to access external commercial borrowings, said S. Venkat, executive director (finance), Nacil. Banks offer unsecured loans to other banks in the London money market at interest rates on the basis of Libor. “Though these factors have increased the cost of borrowing, the drop in the US Federal Reserve rate has helped cool the condition,” Venkat said, adding that external borrowings are still cheaper than rupee loans.
Jet Airways, with 78 planes, has firmed up plans to raise $800 million. Half the amount will be raised by selling shares to select financial institutions through a procedure popularly known as qualified institutional placements. “Another $400 million would be raised through selling shares to existing shareholders. We’re in talks with our bankers to finalize the modalities,” said a Jet Airways executive, who did not want to be identified.
Deccan Aviation, which runs the country’s largest low-fare carrier Deccan, too, has decided to raise up to $400 million for its expansion plans. “The fund-raising plans are to supplement our international operations and aircraft acquisition,” a Deccan executive said, preferring anonymity.
Kingfisher Airlines, owned by UB Group, has similar plans to fuel its international operations, widely expected in August following its acquisition of Deccan Aviation in 2007. The airline will also start taking delivery of bigger planes this year.
Other smaller carriers such as Paramount Airways, Go Airlines India Pvt. Ltd, which runs GoAir, and InterGlobe Aviation Pvt. Ltd, the operator of IndiGo, are also looking at raising funds from the domestic and global market. “We will be raising around $350 million in the next fiscal,” said M. Thiagarajan, Paramount’s managing director, adding his firm is in talks to source funding from overseas credit agencies for purchase of planes. The airline, which flies five Embraer planes, is negotiating with Boeing and Airbus to buy bigger aircraft.
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flightknight

Thanks for contributing your knowledge about the Future of aviation in India. Please keep up the updates and any information that could be helpful.