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Forum: Tech Log

10th Jun 2012, 13:40

Replies: 1,550

AF 447 Thread No. 8

Views: 303,668

Posted By alf5071h

Hindsight or just human behaviour

OC, re #1174, I agree with your thoughts on expectation, but any conclusion that the crew should have followed a specific drill (SOP), because it was the obvious course of action, involves hindsight...

Forum: Tech Log

8th Jun 2012, 02:42

Replies: 1,550

AF 447 Thread No. 8

Views: 303,668

Posted By alf5071h

OC re #1169. You appear to assume that because...

OC re #1169. You appear to assume that because knowledge exits it can be recalled for use at any time, or that all situations will be understood (as you would understand them). Hindsight bias is...

Forum: Tech Log

7th Jun 2012, 01:49

Replies: 1,550

AF 447 Thread No. 8

Views: 303,668

Posted By alf5071h

From hindsight to foresight.

“… is hindsight bias a conclusion in itself…´Lyman #1084:
Bias is a tendency to hold a view which may affect our thinking; thus hindsight bias is not a conclusion unless we consciously choose to...

Forum: Tech Log

4th Jun 2012, 02:39

Replies: 1,550

AF 447 Thread No. 8

Views: 303,668

Posted By alf5071h

Hindsight

For those who have yet to believe … and might be able to learn … if only …
http://i48.tinypic.com/14d3woh.jpg
With apologies to Peter Nicholson....

Forum: Tech Log

1st Jun 2012, 01:26

Replies: 1,550

AF 447 Thread No. 8

Views: 303,668

Posted By alf5071h

“The past seems incredible, the future implausible.”

Old Carthusian, et al, “How is this relevant to AF447?”
All that has been said or might be said about AF 447 or Fukushima, is in hindsight.
Are we really able to understand the situation as these...

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