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Search: Posts Made By: Ulric
Showing results 1 to 35 of 39
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Forum: Rumours & News
8th Mar 2015, 11:35
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

I believe this exercise has been done by Inmarsat...

I believe this exercise has been done by Inmarsat as part of the work to validate their calculations. I'm not sure now whether I read it in an official statement from the investigation team, from...
Forum: Rumours & News
26th Oct 2014, 20:44
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

Exactly right. Some views I've seen expressed put...

Exactly right. Some views I've seen expressed put the 19:40 arc at the western extremity of the flight path, some have it crossing EW and some WE. The data we have doesn't distinguish one from the...
Forum: Rumours & News
25th Oct 2014, 21:19
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

It all hinges on the path taken between the 18:29...

It all hinges on the path taken between the 18:29 and 19:40 arcs. One crucial question is which direction the aircraft was travelling in when it crossed the 19:40 arc - E-W or W-E. The data doesn't...
Forum: Rumours & News
25th Oct 2014, 20:29
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

The nature of the data leads to uncertainty here....

The nature of the data leads to uncertainty here. I believe the ping arcs can be established with good certainty - many have repeated the calculations - but these only establish the distance from the...
Forum: Rumours & News
31st Aug 2014, 19:13
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

We should all remember that the disappearance of...

We should all remember that the disappearance of this aircraft is the subject of a criminal investigation and as such, not all information available to the investigating team is available to the...
Forum: Rumours & News
11th Aug 2014, 12:17
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

I remember spending a day driving around Grand...

I remember spending a day driving around Grand Cayman many years ago exploring all the little beaches and coves. One thing that struck me at the time was the extent to which the waves seem to sort...
Forum: Rumours & News
10th Aug 2014, 18:57
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

Chris Scott There have been discussions...

Chris Scott

There have been discussions about this elsewhere. The questions are about things like how rough the sea might have been - weather reports say calm. There are also questions about how...
Forum: Rumours & News
28th Jul 2014, 19:23
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

On a constant magnetic heading the course flown...

On a constant magnetic heading the course flown is a Rhumb line.
Rhumb line - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhumb_line)
Forum: Rumours & News
26th Jul 2014, 12:24
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

Indeed, it is highly relevant that the...

Indeed, it is highly relevant that the investigation team seems to have made a set of assumptions which is at odds with their public statements. There are however, good reasons for these...
Forum: Rumours & News
25th Jul 2014, 20:34
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

All I'm saying is that if the start point is not...

All I'm saying is that if the start point is not known, the end point is not known because one is dependent on the other. The investigation team presumably have access to more information than we do...
Forum: Rumours & News
25th Jul 2014, 17:24
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

Thank you very much for that. It is one of the...

Thank you very much for that. It is one of the outstanding pieces in the puzzle!
Forum: Rumours & News
25th Jul 2014, 12:08
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

This might help ...

This might help
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d4/World_Magnetic_Declination_2010.pdf
Forum: Rumours & News
25th Jul 2014, 07:09
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

I think the assumptions made by the investigating...

I think the assumptions made by the investigating team are only provably false if you have certainty about some of the variables and in particular, the point at which the SSE course was assumed. Once...
Forum: Rumours & News
24th Jul 2014, 21:20
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

I think that is a reasonable thing to do. Any...

I think that is a reasonable thing to do. Any projection of course is based on some set of assumptions and I think the report is laced with clues about what those assumptions were. You will...
Forum: Rumours & News
24th Jul 2014, 20:08
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

There is much information which is accessible to...

There is much information which is accessible to the investigation team but, not to us. We must await their conclusions.
Forum: Rumours & News
24th Jul 2014, 18:19
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

So, are we assuming that the 19:40 ping line was...

So, are we assuming that the 19:40 ping line was traversed in an easterly or westerly direction? Assuming the plane was travelling south east initially makes sense but then forces a much more...
Forum: Rumours & News
24th Jul 2014, 14:10
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

I think that to draw any sort of sensible...

I think that to draw any sort of sensible conclusion about the track terminal, you must make an assumption about the starting point of the track since displacement of one, results in displacement of...
Forum: Rumours & News
16th Jul 2014, 18:24
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

I agree. I think it is highly unlikely that a...

I agree. I think it is highly unlikely that a ping coincidentally occurs at the furthest westerly extent of the track.
Forum: Rumours & News
15th Jul 2014, 20:52
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

Yes, I am not at all sure about the "circle path"...

Yes, I am not at all sure about the "circle path" because it seems to imply such variations of speed and heading. I am also unclear about what failure conditions could cause an aircraft to fly such a...
Forum: Rumours & News
13th Jul 2014, 19:27
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

I don't see any reason for treating one set of...

I don't see any reason for treating one set of statements differently to another. In God we trust. All others must bring data.
...
Forum: Rumours & News
13th Jul 2014, 17:04
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

“When you have eliminated the impossible,...

“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

Arthur Conan Doyle
Forum: Rumours & News
11th Jul 2014, 20:57
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

The Inmarsat document has a definition here ...

The Inmarsat document has a definition here
http://www.inmarsat.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Inmarsat-Differential-Doppler-Study.pdf
Forum: Rumours & News
11th Jul 2014, 20:00
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

Is that a constraint? I don't remember seeing any...

Is that a constraint? I don't remember seeing any firm data either way?
Forum: Rumours & News
9th Jul 2014, 21:17
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

I'm sorry, I don't mean to imply blame. It's just...

I'm sorry, I don't mean to imply blame. It's just that the behaviour of systems is different when they are shut down than when they are unplugged.
Forum: Rumours & News
9th Jul 2014, 19:03
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

Swissair 111 had a fire on board which disrupted...

Swissair 111 had a fire on board which disrupted the systems. We don't know what happened on MH370 but the speculation is that circuit breakers were pulled.

Consider your own PC. If you shut it...
Forum: Rumours & News
9th Jul 2014, 18:35
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

I don't think it will help much but here it is ...

I don't think it will help much but here it is
http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/549

If someone hadn't written it, I would have coded my own circle generator - it's easy to do - no need to pay...
Forum: Rumours & News
9th Jul 2014, 18:06
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

Satellite is normally assumed to be at the...

Satellite is normally assumed to be at the equator and 64.5E. My reading suggested that during the flight of MH370 it's position varied between 0.8 and 1.5N because of it's little elliptical orbit up...
Forum: Rumours & News
9th Jul 2014, 06:37
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

Just to be clear, I took Duncan Steele's...

Just to be clear, I took Duncan Steele's calculated radii for the rings and used a kml circle generator to produce the kml files. I have also produced a set of kml waypoints for Malysian, Indonesian...
Forum: Rumours & News
8th Jul 2014, 21:07
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

There is a difference between a clean shut-down...

There is a difference between a clean shut-down and pulling the plug out.
Forum: Rumours & News
8th Jul 2014, 21:04
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

The point that needs to be made here is that any...

The point that needs to be made here is that any assumption for what happened between 18:29 and 19:41 implies an assumption about whether the plane was travelling east or west when it intersected the...
Forum: Rumours & News
7th Jul 2014, 19:34
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

If we accept that the Inmarsat arcs and the radar...

If we accept that the Inmarsat arcs and the radar trace are correct then we have a timing anomaly. If MH370 maintained its last known course - the radar track - then we have a problem because it...
Forum: Rumours & News
6th Jul 2014, 22:13
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

Shadoko, you are thinking along the same lines as...

Shadoko, you are thinking along the same lines as I am.
Forum: Rumours & News
2nd Jul 2014, 18:59
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

My understanding of this is very weak but from...

My understanding of this is very weak but from what I have read there are four sources of navigation information that George might use to hold a course. They are Inertial, magnetic, radio and GPS. It...
Forum: Rumours & News
1st Jul 2014, 18:42
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

The BFO is surely not the sole discriminant. If...

The BFO is surely not the sole discriminant. If course and heading change, you need an explanation for that. The presence or absence of such an explanation would also therefore be a discriminant.
Forum: Rumours & News
1st Jul 2014, 18:23
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,349,248
Posted By Ulric

I think we should be interested in seeing the...

I think we should be interested in seeing the outputs from both simple and monte-carlo models here. They certainly interest me, and the clustering of the high probability tracks is quite significant....
Showing results 1 to 35 of 39
 
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