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Search: Posts Made By: GreatBear
Showing results 1 to 35 of 53
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Forum: Tech Log
4th Apr 2011, 01:42
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Associations for AF447 Families

These associations have web sites:

1. Associação dos familiares das vitimas do voo 447 (http://www.afvv447.net/)

2. Association Entraide et Solidarité AF447 (http://www.asso-af447.fr/)

3....
Forum: Tech Log
4th Dec 2010, 18:20
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Phase 4: Backdrift Calcs vs. Other Known Data

As mm43 has pointed out many times, the surface currents of the equatorial Atlantic in the region where AF447 went down are highly variable and difficult to predict. Test buoys dropped and followed a...
Forum: Tech Log
29th Nov 2010, 05:54
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

BEA PR/Transparency

As I complained on the original thread a year ago, BEA's attention to the public interest regarding information about the search for AF447 is about 2 on a scale of 10. The promised assessment of...
Forum: Tech Log
21st Nov 2010, 06:16
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

The "Why"

According to the time stamps in HazelNuts39's excellent graph, all hell broke loose prior to and during the minute of 02:10, with fifteen messages time stamped during those 60 seconds. By message 16,...
Forum: Tech Log
5th Nov 2010, 00:34
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

AF447 Data Mining

By way of update, we have combined the PPRuNe and Airliners.net threads into a single database consisting of the two PPRuNe threads of 4583 posts and the Airliners.net threads (about 25 of them) of...
Forum: Tech Log
3rd Nov 2010, 20:24
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Pitot Disagree

For what it's worth, pitot disagree ramifications have been discussed quite a bit... my own post (http://www.pprune.org/tech-log/395105-af-447-search-resume-81.html#post5773635) back in June touched...
Forum: Tech Log
27th Oct 2010, 18:25
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Content Analysis

Since June of 2009 there have been more than 4555 posts to the two AF447 threads at PPRuNe and, as of October 25, 2010, these discussion threads have received 2,772,948 page views. Many contributors...
Forum: Tech Log
24th Oct 2010, 03:59
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

CJ, good point and a reminder that "uncontrolled...

CJ, good point and a reminder that "uncontrolled impact" is the RESULT, not the CAUSE of this upset. Indeed, the recovered floating debris, while confirming the catastrophe, provides few clues about...
Forum: Tech Log
21st Oct 2010, 18:46
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

BOAC, May be a bit too soon, still, to throw...

BOAC,

May be a bit too soon, still, to throw in your cards. Several promising areas of seabed have emerged from this thread's event analysis during the summer, where the lawn has not yet been...
Forum: Tech Log
20th Oct 2010, 19:49
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Aaah, Bearfoil, Of course "there are dozens...

Aaah, Bearfoil,

Of course "there are dozens of other 'conclusions' available." That is why, I'm sure, no conclusions have been reached by BEA and why a final report would not be easy to write...
Forum: Tech Log
20th Oct 2010, 16:48
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

In this PPRuNe forum we have heard from many...

In this PPRuNe forum we have heard from many sharp minds who have no interest in commercial politics or the courtroom dance of legal fault-finding and finger-pointing and the messy business of claims...
Forum: Tech Log
6th Oct 2010, 03:36
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Aaah, mm43, some news! If the CVR and FDR are...

Aaah, mm43, some news! If the CVR and FDR are indeed recoverable and readable after 16 months at depth, I can't see another few months at sea making a difference. This is time well spent organizing...
Forum: Tech Log
29th Sep 2010, 17:18
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

The difficulty for BEA is that, given the known...

The difficulty for BEA is that, given the known facts, several perfectly viable but dissimilar scenarios describing the event and, more importantly, its cause cannot be ruled out. These range from a...
Forum: Tech Log
8th Sep 2010, 17:20
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Svarin, I believe it's unlikely very many...

Svarin,

I believe it's unlikely very many pax left their seats due to "inadvertant seatbelt release."

However, the QF72 Nov. 2009 2nd Interim ATSB TRANSPORT SAFETY REPORT...
Forum: Tech Log
2nd Sep 2010, 19:15
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Yes! Thank you Old Engineer for your instruction...

Yes! Thank you Old Engineer for your instruction and clarity about how the VS likely departed the aircraft. As with Grizzled, HN39, bearfoil, mm43, Finn47 and probably many others I, too, would love...
Forum: Tech Log
2nd Sep 2010, 00:48
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

PBL, One of the remarkable properties of...

PBL,

One of the remarkable properties of this public PPRunE thread has been its contributors' collective tolerance for the off-the-wall ideas that appear from time to time within what seems to be...
Forum: Tech Log
1st Sep 2010, 20:14
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Machaca, Yes! Great image. Makes you proud...

Machaca,

Yes! Great image. Makes you proud that we (humans) can design and build such exquisite structures. And make them fly!

The empennage parts are possibly sourced from Otto Fuchs KG...
Forum: Tech Log
27th Aug 2010, 17:04
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

AF447 Search: Unified Approach

Not for the "why," but for the "where," I'm wondering if an effort has been launched (or should be launched) to unify the many lines of thought and theories expressed during the last year here and by...
Forum: Tech Log
27th Aug 2010, 15:03
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

SaturnV, Maybe the Brazilian AF searched...

SaturnV,

Maybe the Brazilian AF searched there on June 1 and 2, maybe not. Your post (#1666 (http://www.pprune.org/5786590-post1666.html)) contains illustrations showing significant aerial...
Forum: Tech Log
26th Aug 2010, 01:46
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Thanks, mm43, That page of posts (page 81)...

Thanks, mm43,

That page of posts (page 81) was good to revisit. With the WRN (AP kicking out) at 02:10:10 and the FLR (pitot disagree) 1 minute 39 seconds later (fault msgs batched in minute...
Forum: Tech Log
25th Aug 2010, 22:54
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Just semantics, Henra. Bearfoil uses "out of...

Just semantics, Henra. Bearfoil uses "out of control." My thoughts are that the aircraft was, indeed, in trouble and upset before 0210. It was at 0210, FOLLOWING a set of unfortunate events already...
Forum: Tech Log
25th Aug 2010, 20:16
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Thanks, henra, Your numbers are valuable. ...

Thanks, henra,

Your numbers are valuable.

What is "known" or can be reasonably inferred is

AF447 was in serious upset at 0210.

Af447 was in the water by 0214 or 0215.
Forum: Tech Log
25th Aug 2010, 18:14
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Terminal Velocity

HazelNuts, henra, Machinbird...

In your terminal velocity calcs, can you include a time variable -- how much time required to fall, say, 35,000 ft.?

With the leaning tower and the feather and...
Forum: Tech Log
20th Aug 2010, 07:44
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

All Over the Map

Very impressive work on the part of the Drift Group, which developed a rectangular search area about 20 to 40nm NW of the LKP with an estimated 95% probability of successful discovery. Months of very...
Forum: Tech Log
4th Jul 2010, 05:27
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

mm43 I reviewed the Brazilian Air Force's...

mm43

I reviewed the Brazilian Air Force's notes (http://www.fab.mil.br/portal/capa/index.php?page=notas447) on their aerial search for AF447. It seems that in Note 3...
Forum: Tech Log
2nd Jul 2010, 12:16
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Hi SaturnV, Could be just more seriously bad...

Hi SaturnV,

Could be just more seriously bad luck. I seem to remember a post long ago in the thread about the initial Brazilian "Ultimo Reporte" being based on a 02:14 estimated position; the...
Forum: Tech Log
2nd Jul 2010, 01:36
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Peter-1959: There has been no news posted to...

Peter-1959:

There has been no news posted to the English language BEA web site since May 17, 2010.

Status of the search remains "The BEA is currently carrying out a review of the three undersea...
Forum: Tech Log
30th Jun 2010, 15:56
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

A good read. Here's the link...

A good read. Here's the link (http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/1571470/ao2009029.pdf).

GB
Forum: Tech Log
28th Jun 2010, 14:54
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

FluidFlow (Ian): Welcome to the workroom! I...

FluidFlow (Ian): Welcome to the workroom!

I think we are all hoping for successful search and then recovery of the FDR and CVR. The sequence of ACARS messages, however, allows development of...
Forum: Tech Log
26th Jun 2010, 15:09
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

mm43, thanks for the detailed explanation re...

mm43, thanks for the detailed explanation re ACARS; makes sense now.

The upset clearly began at or slightly before 02:10. It is fortuitous that the 02:10:34 location message (sandwiched into the...
Forum: Tech Log
25th Jun 2010, 12:33
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

What If?

The first BEA Interim Report organizes the ACARS messages by "Time of Reception" by Inmarsat. In that sequence, the message AUTO FLT AP OFF is received at 02:10:10. About a minute and a half passes...
Forum: Tech Log
13th Jun 2010, 11:51
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Thanks, BOAC, my point exactly. UNCTUOUS....

Thanks, BOAC, my point exactly.

UNCTUOUS. I'm still having trouble picturing the auto throttle creep necessary to your "favoured" Mach tuck scenario when, by measuring ground speed until the upset...
Forum: Tech Log
12th Jun 2010, 03:06
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

@UNCTUOUS In your section 173: "An ACARS...

@UNCTUOUS

In your section 173: "An ACARS message from the airplane recorded the sudden onset of critical Mach and the autopilot disconnecting due to the high aerodynamic trim loads it was holding...
Forum: Tech Log
4th Jun 2010, 22:20
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Many Eyes

JD-EE,

Yes! Many eyes looking at miles and miles of traverses. What anomalies might they find? Start with some of the contributors to this thread: engineers, scientists, pilots, masters. Bright,...
Forum: Tech Log
3rd Jun 2010, 14:08
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,535,483
Posted By GreatBear

Where?

Takata,

Aaaaah yes, there are so many Unknowns! So many IFs. So many Possibilities. So many Questions.

My bad, not to clarify "BEA have not searched there yet" by adding "with side-scanning...
Showing results 1 to 35 of 53
 
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