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Search: Posts Made By: brooksjg
Showing results 1 to 35 of 62
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Forum: Rumours & News
11th Aug 2010, 13:54
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Beautiful imagery - but still fails to address...

Beautiful imagery - but still fails to address the key problem: timeliness. I assume at least some of the satellites in use were in polar orbits, so there's a variable delay before the patch of...
Forum: Rumours & News
4th Jun 2010, 13:41
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

(attrib above to Mr Prata) Yeah - right. ...

(attrib above to Mr Prata)

Yeah - right. You get '5 minutes' (or less) warning of 'VA Ahead' - then you have to contact ATC, request a route / height change, wait for ATC to decide based on other...
Forum: Rumours & News
4th Jun 2010, 08:38
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Sunfish: errr - what are you actually...

Sunfish:

errr - what are you actually 'sick' about? Comments about inappropriate regulations? Inaction? Slow response?

I assume your ICAO reference is intended to reassure that ICAO is...
Forum: Rumours & News
2nd Jun 2010, 09:32
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

I wish it were that simple! There are at least...

I wish it were that simple!
There are at least three groups at the Sharp End!
- the certain (but possibly wrong) sceptics who are not supported by the current (or previous) rules about VA;
- the...
Forum: Rumours & News
1st Jun 2010, 21:10
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

I'm glad you said that.... I've seen various...

I'm glad you said that....

I've seen various 'melting points' for VA mentioned, some early in this thread. However, since they were considerably lower than the figure I 've now been told for the...
Forum: Rumours & News
1st Jun 2010, 18:08
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Turbine cooling system temperature

On 30th May I posted that I had been trying to discover the maximum temperature of air inside turbine blades and other parts of the cooling system.

I now have an answer for one type of (high...
Forum: Rumours & News
30th May 2010, 23:46
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

[YAWN] Been there, already got the T-shirt........

[YAWN]
Been there, already got the T-shirt.....
IT'S A HOAX!!! (Something else unpleasant happened to this engine, during MARCH ie. before VA became an issue).

Already been through this...
Forum: Rumours & News
30th May 2010, 11:51
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

This is the key to the whole set of issues around...

This is the key to the whole set of issues around engine damage caused by LOW levels of VA.

(Forget, for a moment, accurate detection of areas of HIGH VA concentration in bad visibility and...
Forum: Rumours & News
29th May 2010, 10:37
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

'Your' course? or a course you were at? ...

'Your' course? or a course you were at?

Doesn't matter - at least part of the audience must have lost focus, otherwise your comments would have been re-edited by now.

Estimating the total...
Forum: Rumours & News
28th May 2010, 10:01
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Re: New Scientist report on VA in engines

Looks like someone at New Scientist has caught the Bureaucratic Disease causing mental 'tunnel vision'. Ex Cathedra view on testing engines: 'destructive testing across a range of them will be...
Forum: Rumours & News
27th May 2010, 19:29
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Of course you're right about who's really in...

Of course you're right about who's really in control.
However...
The bureaucrat's natural instinct is the path of least resistance leading to no comebacks.
So if one of his political 'masters'...
Forum: Rumours & News
27th May 2010, 18:25
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Don't expect a rational response anytime soon if...

Don't expect a rational response anytime soon if those making decisions are politicians or people (ie. bureaucrats) controlled by politicians.

For a direct comparison, consider the risk of death...
Forum: Rumours & News
26th May 2010, 13:33
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Oh dear..... misinterpretation and sometimes...

Oh dear..... misinterpretation and sometimes misrepresentation are a bit of a safety hazard around here!

I NEVER suggested that any UAVs should fly in or near air routes.

If you want to run...
Forum: Rumours & News
25th May 2010, 22:00
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Huh???? I NEVER suggested anything of the...

Huh????

I NEVER suggested anything of the sort.

My observation is that the VAAC forecasting can be inaccurate, as was especially obvious on 17th May. There is some technology (UAVs with...
Forum: Rumours & News
25th May 2010, 09:05
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Part of the purpose of my last post was to...

Part of the purpose of my last post was to highlight that the industry has done nothing except react 'passively'. Whether this reaction was adequate or technically sound is debatable. Anyway, we...
Forum: Rumours & News
24th May 2010, 22:45
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Based on most recent events, I beg to differ. ...

Based on most recent events, I beg to differ. We're more likely at a 'Rumsfeld Moment', when it's become apparent that there are some extra Known Unknowns which either didn't matter previously or...
Forum: Rumours & News
24th May 2010, 16:13
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Yes - not necessarily one 'incorrect' forecast -...

Yes - not necessarily one 'incorrect' forecast - a whole series of totally consistent forecasts, over at least 3 days, showing movement South / South-eastward and gradual expansion of the cloud's...
Forum: Rumours & News
24th May 2010, 10:43
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

errrr.... The Powers That Be can (easily)...

errrr....

The Powers That Be can (easily) change the specified minima/maxima for any given situation, so long as the new value remains inside other legal / regulatory limits that may apply. They...
Forum: Rumours & News
24th May 2010, 00:07
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

VA forecast accuracy

Now that the dust has settled (at least for the moment!), has anyone seen any proper explanation (especially from the Met Office) for the overall lack of accuracy of VA Forecasting and, in...
Forum: Rumours & News
22nd May 2010, 09:18
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

I guess that a whole lot of the 'Ash Emergency'...

I guess that a whole lot of the 'Ash Emergency' reporting from the Meeja generally is examples of 'Never let a Few Facts get in the way of a Good Story'.

Even the Flightglobal story reporting no...
Forum: Rumours & News
21st May 2010, 09:31
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

...lets not go too far to under-state the risk. ...

...lets not go too far to under-state the risk.
There have been documented daytime 'incidents' involving damage to engines apparently caused by VA. Thankfully nothing involving any personal injury...
Forum: Rumours & News
18th May 2010, 16:30
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Even more alarming is the lead-up to the 'jump at...

Even more alarming is the lead-up to the 'jump at Warp 9'.

VA charts for the preceding several days had all shown a consistent progression towards the supposedly-accurate chart for Monday 0600. ...
Forum: Rumours & News
18th May 2010, 07:34
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

VA Forecast accuracy

As it happened, I was paying closer attention to the Met Office Red/Black composite graphics yesterday and was surprised to see the supposed Ash Cloud with a large Black area extending southward...
Forum: Rumours & News
18th May 2010, 07:24
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

As has already been discussed, aircraft already...

As has already been discussed, aircraft already have air filters that (it is said) can be examined for VA particles - all you need is a microscope and possibly a very precise weighing machine. ...
Forum: Rumours & News
17th May 2010, 13:50
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

....and because of the 'very fluid VA forecast...

....and because of the 'very fluid VA forecast situation', it looks like LGW has probably got lots of SLF sitting around getting cross but no aircraft to load up!!! On Radar Virtuel, it looks like...
Forum: Rumours & News
17th May 2010, 13:15
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

But previous research flights took place on...

But previous research flights took place on Saturday (??) which (presumably) confirmed what was being forecast then! Very odd
Forum: Rumours & News
17th May 2010, 13:06
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Errrr - the 1200 chart shows that the Black area...

Errrr - the 1200 chart shows that the Black area that extended South virtually to LGW up to 0600 this morning (and was predicted to hang around until tomorrow at earliest) has now moved (VERY)...
Forum: Rumours & News
17th May 2010, 08:52
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

One factor in your favour - apparently still...

One factor in your favour - apparently still 'scheduled'
But two potentially against:
- The southern edge of a Black ash area is predicted to move Eastwards, VERY close to LGW between now and 1200....
Forum: Rumours & News
16th May 2010, 20:37
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

is mentioned in the latest report but as far as I...

is mentioned in the latest report but as far as I can see the word 'distinct' (as in 'distinct layer') does not occur. This phrase DID get used in a previous flight report from 5th May. Who can say...
Forum: Rumours & News
16th May 2010, 17:45
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

No I didn't!!! In the absence of any...

No I didn't!!!
In the absence of any alternative I just asked you for your evidence of inaccuracy, within the limits of the modelling as offered. I have absolutely no doubt that the models ARE less...
Forum: Rumours & News
16th May 2010, 11:19
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

at the moment AND for the foresseable future! ...

at the moment AND for the foresseable future!

Do you have any evidence at all that the tuned-up models currently in use are actually giving incorrect track and coverage data for the VA?

Or,...
Forum: Rumours & News
14th May 2010, 08:52
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

So: there are two completely different...

So: there are two completely different situations:

1 - where there's enough VA (especially large particles) coming through the combustion chamber, getting hot enough to melt and coat the first...
Forum: Rumours & News
13th May 2010, 09:47
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

It's still a great mystery to me where the VA...

It's still a great mystery to me where the VA evidence is going!
Under present (new) rules, it would be very unusual for an engine to run for as long as an hour in an ash zone or around the edges...
Forum: Rumours & News
7th May 2010, 08:22
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

The trouble with 'careful reading' of anything is...

The trouble with 'careful reading' of anything is that it can STILL be selective!

The stated reason why the track of the NASA DC-8 blundered into the ash (which was part of a cloud well-known to...
Forum: Rumours & News
6th May 2010, 23:44
Replies: 3,110
Views: 1,591,029
Posted By brooksjg

Key problem is the precision of the data! OK -...

Key problem is the precision of the data!
OK - chances are that 2000 micrograms is low enough not to be a problem for that particular flight.
But what about the variation in ash density that the...
Showing results 1 to 35 of 62
 
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