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Search: Posts Made By: awblain
Showing results 1 to 35 of 76
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Forum: Rumours & News
4th Apr 2014, 12:19
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

"We" don't have much choice in that regard, since...

"We" don't have much choice in that regard, since it's "their" system that has yielded the results, and "they" know more about how it works than anyone else.

If they say too much about how their...
Forum: Rumours & News
4th Apr 2014, 10:25
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Since Tireless was reported to have arrived in...

Since Tireless was reported to have arrived in the general area on Monday 31st, that press release would seem to have been substantially overtaken by events.

Dangling a single microphone on a...
Forum: Rumours & News
4th Apr 2014, 09:55
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Inmarsat are not the enemy here - they're the...

Inmarsat are not the enemy here - they're the only organization that's provided any useful information whatsoever to the search.

Inmarsat have gone far beyond where they need to go in providing...
Forum: Rumours & News
31st Mar 2014, 17:50
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Even if that happened, the problem would be...

Even if that happened, the problem would be timing. The relative timing of receipt by ground-based VHF probably won't be precise enough to use. The ground-signal travels a few hundred km, while the...
Forum: Rumours & News
31st Mar 2014, 14:22
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Lonewolf, It's been about 550 hours since...

Lonewolf,

It's been about 550 hours since the disappearance. How accurate a tracked-back position is even a large number of drifting fragments now going to provide realistically?

To try to be...
Forum: Rumours & News
31st Mar 2014, 13:04
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

There are two pieces of information - i)...

There are two pieces of information -

i) the Doppler shift, revealing the instantaneous speed along the line between the satellite and aircraft during the "ping". Various three-dimensional...
Forum: Rumours & News
31st Mar 2014, 09:01
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

etudiant It's a bit more pessimistic...

etudiant



It's a bit more pessimistic than that. Rather, the current detail is "it's somewhere in a 500-mile swath N-S that extends from 1000-2500 miles away". So, keep your eyes open too...
Forum: Rumours & News
29th Mar 2014, 14:23
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Feel free to delete if this is not helpful - or...

Feel free to delete if this is not helpful - or ask me to delete in a PM.



I don't work for Inmarsat, but I know a certain amount about satellite and radio systems, inference and imaging.
...
Forum: Rumours & News
29th Mar 2014, 10:49
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Ian I think you summarize very nicely. ...

Ian

I think you summarize very nicely.



If it's right.

There shouldn't be a reward for the people (not necessarily the technical team - it could be the Australian cabinet office) who...
Forum: Rumours & News
29th Mar 2014, 00:14
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

I find it very hard to understand why almost a...

I find it very hard to understand why almost a whole week's time and effort was spent searching an area 2500 miles from Perth, when a better analysis of the satellite communications data on Friday...
Forum: Rumours & News
24th Mar 2014, 17:08
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Richard, Under similar assumptions does...

Richard,

Under similar assumptions does that rule out the Northern route? I assume that must require a weird combination of speed and track changes to remain consistent with the timings.
...
Forum: Rumours & News
24th Mar 2014, 14:46
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

That's all very well and good, but it doesn't do...

That's all very well and good, but it doesn't do anything for finding the wreckage and the recorders. Unless someone has some radar data or intercepted Inmarsat broadcasts, then the mystery is...
Forum: Rumours & News
24th Mar 2014, 09:30
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Dillboy, Only when Inmarsat's senior people...

Dillboy,

Only when Inmarsat's senior people appear wandering round London in sackcloth and ashes. They've been very clear.

Before the Inmarsat statement, there was no reason to look anywhere...
Forum: Rumours & News
23rd Mar 2014, 22:57
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

500N, Fair enough... if it's a ship...

500N,

Fair enough... if it's a ship dedicated to accident investigation rather than a commercial vessel, then that's not so indicative that there is yet any work for it to do.
Forum: Rumours & News
23rd Mar 2014, 22:32
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Now the despatch of ROV operating ships indicates...

Now the despatch of ROV operating ships indicates the commitment of real money, or at least an absence of other gainful work.

Sounds like evidence that's there's going to be something to find.
Forum: Rumours & News
23rd Mar 2014, 21:54
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Given the quality of the information that has...

Given the quality of the information that has made the current search area the current search area, a single P8 seems to be an appropriate commitment of resources from non-locals.

If and when...
Forum: Rumours & News
23rd Mar 2014, 21:09
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

I'll stick my neck out and hazard that the French...

I'll stick my neck out and hazard that the French have had a good long look through their satellite radar and seen something interesting. If the US (and maybe Russia and China?) can do the same with...
Forum: Rumours & News
23rd Mar 2014, 20:25
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

I think you'll find that more sophisticated space...

I think you'll find that more sophisticated space imagery users have high-bandwidth relay satellites. Sensitive information need never travel down from low Earth orbit.

As to changing orbit - it...
Forum: Rumours & News
22nd Mar 2014, 16:01
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

McLaughlin might not have meant that all (eight?)...

McLaughlin might not have meant that all (eight?) distances (0111-0811) to the satellite were monotonically increasing - perhaps just the final few.

If he did mean that all eight distances were...
Forum: Rumours & News
22nd Mar 2014, 13:47
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

The lack of a beacon signal also indicates...

The lack of a beacon signal also indicates something: either a hard impact or a safe landing in the north or a quick sinking in the south. A sinking in the South makes more sense to me.

If it's...
Forum: Rumours & News
22nd Mar 2014, 13:24
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

From their own data, Inmarsat can't say whether...

From their own data, Inmarsat can't say whether it was going North or South: they inferred that North was unlikely, as someone would have seen it go by.
Forum: Rumours & News
22nd Mar 2014, 12:30
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Inmarsat know what they're doing. When they say...

Inmarsat know what they're doing. When they say how far the aircraft was from their 64E satellite at 11 minutes past the hours they can be trusted.

They're about the only originator of useful...
Forum: Rumours & News
22nd Mar 2014, 10:23
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

TURIN, 22x30m? That's a very big red...

TURIN,

22x30m? That's a very big red herring indeed.

I suspect what we're seeing there is a potentially embarrassingly report of the woeful imaging resolution limit of that particular...
Forum: Rumours & News
21st Mar 2014, 17:45
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

BOAC, I entirely agree, it would have to be...

BOAC,

I entirely agree, it would have to be military radars doing the finding, and silly o'clock on a weekend is probably not the best time to keep a keen look out.

Nevertheless, the timings...
Forum: Rumours & News
21st Mar 2014, 17:25
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Mountain Bear, But you were looking through...

Mountain Bear,

But you were looking through a tree in that example, and there are none between a 777 and the satellite.

The "ping time" in that example I think is also a time required to...
Forum: Rumours & News
21st Mar 2014, 17:20
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

BOAC, I think the only thing that rules out...

BOAC,

I think the only thing that rules out the "Northern Arc" is the lack of any reported radar returns that way consistent with a mystery 777, and also a lack of a wrecked 777 out that way, but...
Forum: Rumours & News
21st Mar 2014, 17:11
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

172, Phantom phone tie ins from air to...

172,

Phantom phone tie ins from air to ground could perhaps rule out the "Northern Route". The phone providers of the missing passengers should know whether anything was received or sent from a...
Forum: Rumours & News
21st Mar 2014, 17:02
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Sadly, I think all Inmarsat has to work with is...

Sadly, I think all Inmarsat has to work with is the time of flight of radio waves between their satellite and the aircraft on the hour, plus the uncertain time lag required for the aircraft's satcom...
Forum: Rumours & News
21st Mar 2014, 16:45
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

The Inmarsat guy has six hourly ping times to...

The Inmarsat guy has six hourly ping times to work with. It should be clear whether the aircraft was heading towards his satellite or away from it over that time to an accuracy of somewhere in the...
Forum: Rumours & News
20th Mar 2014, 22:14
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

If you have a big sound receiver you can hear...

If you have a big sound receiver you can hear things that are a long way down.

There were rumors that the French submarine Emeraude that went looking for AF447 couldn't really exploit its...
Forum: Rumours & News
20th Mar 2014, 21:41
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Hunter, While it could be anywhere on the...

Hunter,

While it could be anywhere on the red arc at 0811, Inmarsat sensibly curtailed the arc at a spot in the Indian Ocean that is the number of flight hours multiplied by a reasonable speed...
Forum: Rumours & News
20th Mar 2014, 21:18
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Hunter, Inmarsat puts it on the red arc at 0811....

Hunter, Inmarsat puts it on the red arc at 0811. That's not consistent with traveling in a straight line SW over Malaya. Either the SW report over Malaya is wrong, or extra turns were required.
...
Forum: Rumours & News
20th Mar 2014, 18:49
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

The Washington Post has presumably taken the...

The Washington Post has presumably taken the Australian search box, drawn straight lines - ideally great circles - back from either side of it towards the "last contact", and without too much...
Forum: Rumours & News
20th Mar 2014, 18:22
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

Lonewolf, you don't have to be respectful to the...

Lonewolf, you don't have to be respectful to the Economist, although it does usually provoke some thought at least.

And they do have a point that this repeated misplacing of large airliners is...
Forum: Rumours & News
20th Mar 2014, 17:33
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,317,007
Posted By awblain

I can understand Inmarsat's point of view about...

I can understand Inmarsat's point of view about "following the lines", since
they did go to the trouble of ended the arcs at a reasonable point that is about a range-of-the-aircraft distant from...
Showing results 1 to 35 of 76
 
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