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Search: Posts Made By: slats11
Showing results 1 to 35 of 82
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Forum: Rumours & News
11th Mar 2015, 05:06
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Best bet might be 2 concentric annuli 1....

Best bet might be 2 concentric annuli
1. Current search area i.e. based on the 7th arc. This is the "AP, fuel starvation, spiral scenario."
2. Based on maximal glide (from cruise) distance beyond...
Forum: Rumours & News
9th Mar 2015, 11:27
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

A few people have privately asked about my...

A few people have privately asked about my recently deleted post.

Rather than attempt to repost it here, it is available at the link below

MH370 - time to think of it as a criminal act...
Forum: Rumours & News
9th Mar 2015, 06:41
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Surface debris

If the plane flew on AP until fuel exhaustion and then spiralled into the ocean, there would have been fragmentation of the fuselage and release of all sorts of floating items - pieces of composite...
Forum: Rumours & News
29th Oct 2014, 08:38
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Thanks Exoixx. That fills in a few blanks. I...

Thanks Exoixx. That fills in a few blanks. I never saw that story. Will try and find it on line.

The timing still looks very odd.

MH370 goes missing on evening of 7 March UTC, and the world...
Forum: Rumours & News
28th Oct 2014, 11:24
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

I find it increasingly hard to believe that the...

I find it increasingly hard to believe that the plane will be found using the Inmarsat data in the public domain. There are too many unknowns in the publicly released information, and these unknowns...
Forum: Rumours & News
12th Sep 2014, 14:52
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Well it could have saved lives if it had been a...

Well it could have saved lives if it had been a sufficient deterrent to prevent the "hijacking" in the first place. And being able to track a plane could perhaps help to save lives on the ground. Can...
Forum: Rumours & News
12th Sep 2014, 09:29
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

In some ways risk is like an air filled balloon....

In some ways risk is like an air filled balloon. Early on, it's pretty easy to reduce risk (use your hands to squeeze the ballon to reduce its size). Over time it gets harder to reduce the total risk...
Forum: Rumours & News
3rd Sep 2014, 10:22
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Thanks for that. I had understood about the...

Thanks for that. I had understood about the satellite not being truly stationary. However I had forgotten the bit about the aircraft correcting for its own speed.

I wonder if the BFO for the...
Forum: Rumours & News
3rd Sep 2014, 04:08
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

I'm trying to understand this. Total (or...

I'm trying to understand this.

Total (or uncorrected) horizontal velocity is much greater than vertical velocity. But are you suggesting the aircraft corrects for its own ground speed? And so...
Forum: Rumours & News
1st Sep 2014, 04:06
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

It's not an easy task. Trying to determine ground...

It's not an easy task. Trying to determine ground speed and heading over many hours from a handful of values for velocity away from a satellite.

Agree that vertical velocity will influence...
Forum: Rumours & News
31st Aug 2014, 14:16
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

I agree Richard C10. Up to a point. That is...

I agree Richard C10. Up to a point. That is probably how you would like to analyse the satellite data and model the possible tracks. As a purely scientific exercise.

However real life is always...
Forum: Rumours & News
30th Aug 2014, 15:59
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Its a bit hard to follow why the BFO analysis...

Its a bit hard to follow why the BFO analysis from the 1839 satellite call changes things now. They presumably had this information before. But the media release certainly suggests this data is being...
Forum: Rumours & News
19th Aug 2014, 13:16
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Civilian shipping

Something that does not seem to be in the ATSB report us an analysis of civilian shipping location and course at the time of the 7th partial handshake. The information we do have is the exact time of...
Forum: Rumours & News
15th Aug 2014, 05:45
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Yes. But likely quite different profiles after...

Yes. But likely quite different profiles after fuel exhaustion. Is 90 odd km sufficient to encompass a glide for max range? I don't think so.

There will have been careful consideration of...
Forum: Rumours & News
15th Aug 2014, 04:40
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Interesting turn of phrase in first paragraph....

Interesting turn of phrase in first paragraph. Obviously it is not the role of ATSB to speculate on possible earlier events. The role of ATSB is locating the plane if possible. The Malaysians are...
Forum: Rumours & News
13th Aug 2014, 13:54
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Its not easy to spot wreckage from the air. Hours...

Its not easy to spot wreckage from the air. Hours of staring at white waves wondering if one of them is something more than a wave. Grey clouds, grey seas, and grey aluminium.

If you want to find...
Forum: Rumours & News
5th Jun 2014, 15:39
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Can't work out how to paste the image here. ...

Can't work out how to paste the image here.

I have calculated the solar terminator for 0018 UTC on March 8 2014, and the link below seems to work.
...
Forum: Rumours & News
5th Jun 2014, 09:11
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Curtin University researchers find possible...

Curtin University researchers find possible acoustic trace of MH370 (http://m.watoday.com.au/wa-news/curtin-university-researchers-find-possible-acoustic-trace-of-mh370-20140604-zrxaw.html)

IanW,...
Forum: Rumours & News
5th Jun 2014, 07:58
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

@IanW The Curtin University receivers are...

@IanW

The Curtin University receivers are based off Rottnest Island, pretty much due west of Perth. I gather these receivers serve a scientific purpose (whales etc).

He explained the data had...
Forum: Rumours & News
5th Jun 2014, 07:09
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

The PhD who investigated this acoustic data gave...

The PhD who investigated this acoustic data gave a very comprehensive interview on radio 18 hours ago. He is almost certain (90% confidence) the noise was NOT MH370.

He feels more likely it...
Forum: Rumours & News
1st Jun 2014, 11:57
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

I feel it likely that the person flying the plane...

I feel it likely that the person flying the plane wasn't aware of the ongoing handshakes between the satellite and the aircraft. Everything else was turned off - transponder, ACARS, no response to...
Forum: Rumours & News
30th May 2014, 04:34
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Given it took a month to search 850 km2 (possibly...

Given it took a month to search 850 km2 (possibly with some deep areas missed), the proposal to search 60,000 km2 suggests a different methodology. Perhaps using multiple more capable AUVs.
...
Forum: Rumours & News
29th May 2014, 13:48
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Its very bad if we don't have any pinger data and...

Its very bad if we don't have any pinger data and we just have the arcs

The Bluefin searched 850 square km. That search took about a month (there were a few interruptions due to equipment...
Forum: Rumours & News
29th May 2014, 07:41
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Based on the evidence available, the balance of...

Based on the evidence available, the balance of probability would surely suggest the following deliberate sequence:
1. At FIR boundary, turn off ACARS / transponder and fail to handover to Vietnam...
Forum: Rumours & News
26th May 2014, 15:56
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Thanks VME. That first fact sheet is fascinating...

Thanks VME. That first fact sheet is fascinating reading.

It appears Inmarsat have been looking at these techniques since AF447. Certainly the range from the satellite stuff anyway. The doppler...
Forum: Rumours & News
19th May 2014, 05:23
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Agree Ian W. The timing always did...

Agree Ian W.



The timing always did look a bit suspicious. They managed to get the Ocean Shield in location just in time to hear the last signals from the pincers. Well away from the location...
Forum: Rumours & News
5th May 2014, 06:50
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Interesting that JACC is referring to the...

Interesting that JACC is referring to the Inmarsat data as the "best information we have."

That comment seems to be downplaying the significance of the pingers heard.

In addition, the sharply...
Forum: Rumours & News
28th Apr 2014, 04:18
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Confirmation today by Aust PM that surface search...

Confirmation today by Aust PM that surface search will finish today.

Underwater search to continue over a "much larger area."

Makes sense. Little prospect of finding debris floating now...
Forum: Rumours & News
10th Apr 2014, 23:41
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

I think some people are thinking in retrospect...

I think some people are thinking in retrospect how they would have liked authorities to have acted at the time. But that is often unfair, and 20-20 hindsight is all too easy.

Fact is it was the...
Forum: Rumours & News
8th Apr 2014, 23:55
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

I would submit it is logical - albeit logic...

I would submit it is logical - albeit logic serving an outcome we find deeply disturbing and incomprehensible.

If it wasn't for the satellite pings (a detail perhaps not known about or somehow...
Forum: Rumours & News
8th Apr 2014, 10:56
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

If final ping represented fuel exhaustion in the...

If final ping represented fuel exhaustion in the cruise, we need to explain why the plane apparently ditched on the same arc as fuel exhaustion. This also requires plane to cover perhaps 120km in...
Forum: Rumours & News
8th Apr 2014, 05:47
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Ok looks approx 80 km apart if crossing...

Ok looks approx 80 km apart if crossing perpendicular to arcs. But at heading of perhaps 160. So distance is then in the vicinity of 120 km. In 8 minutes. This final phase seems a bit fast given...
Forum: Rumours & News
7th Apr 2014, 12:24
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

You would get some useful information back from...

You would get some useful information back from bodies.

DNA evidence would conclusively prove the identity of the deceased. That may help relatives accept what happened. Insurers will sometimes...
Forum: Rumours & News
28th Mar 2014, 07:59
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

We probably can't make sense of the ping derived...

We probably can't make sense of the ping derived solutions as the complete data set has not been made available. Even the full data set produces multiple possible solutions (or if you prefer, wide...
Forum: Rumours & News
28th Mar 2014, 04:40
Replies: 11,831
Views: 24,367,428
Posted By slats11

Boeing want it found. Boeing is pretty important...

Boeing want it found. Boeing is pretty important to US military and also export earnings. And therefore USA most likely want it found.
Showing results 1 to 35 of 82
 
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