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Search: Posts Made By: slats11
Showing results 1 to 35 of 37
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Forum: Tech Log
23rd Apr 2011, 15:37
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

True. But if (and I say if) they were less than...

True. But if (and I say if) they were less than fully awake prior to upset, then they sure would have woke up with the upset. So you would expect some evidence of pilot activity post-upset -...
Forum: Tech Log
23rd Apr 2011, 15:00
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

You would indeed had there been progressive...

You would indeed had there been progressive roughness. Hence the loss of control was sudden and catastrophic.

Amongst the debris recovered were a set of 2 CC seats. Pretty much intact. Empty. And...
Forum: Tech Log
23rd Apr 2011, 13:33
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Sure. But hopefully not in a scenario where the...

Sure. But hopefully not in a scenario where the weather ahead was of some concern and other aircraft around were deciding to divert.

I believe the best explanation is one that incorporates all of...
Forum: Tech Log
23rd Apr 2011, 10:31
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

If we get data off the CVR, then I have a strong...

If we get data off the CVR, then I have a strong suspicion we are going to find long periods of silence leading up to the loss of control.

Falling asleep on the job is not the same "black and...
Forum: Tech Log
14th Apr 2011, 02:09
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Thats mighty generous auraflyer. While not...

Thats mighty generous auraflyer. While not suggesting a conspiracy, I certainly don't believe many things have been left to chance in this whole process.

At one level I can understand not...
Forum: Tech Log
12th Apr 2011, 11:29
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Unfortunately it has happened plenty of times...

Unfortunately it has happened plenty of times Razoray. I guarantee you that many pilots would privately admit to you they had come close to nodding off. There have been several recent cases where it...
Forum: Tech Log
12th Apr 2011, 06:29
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Hi Grizz. Good to see you again. I agree...

Hi Grizz. Good to see you again.

I agree that there the human factors are likely to have been very important. Possibly more important than the hardware.

At some stage, did both pilots drift...
Forum: Tech Log
11th Apr 2011, 13:49
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Auraflyer It will be interesting to see...

Auraflyer

It will be interesting to see where the wreckage really is when the location is finally disclosed. I have long believed it is to the S of LKP based on drift analysis - although I am the...
Forum: Tech Log
6th Apr 2011, 11:49
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Hi SaturnV. There are plenty of questions here,...

Hi SaturnV. There are plenty of questions here, and we still do not have enough information to answer them.

I strongly believe that the debris found was always floating somewhere. It was simply...
Forum: Tech Log
7th Dec 2010, 13:55
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Thanks auv-ee. I had not previously seen the...

Thanks auv-ee. I had not previously seen the complete report and was not aware that it was in the public domain. I have only skimmed over it, but a lot of it is well beyond me I am afraid. It is...
Forum: Tech Log
5th Dec 2010, 09:21
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

As far as I can follow it, the BEA drift group...

As far as I can follow it, the BEA drift group (who as you would expect have done the most sophisticated drift analysis) have attempted a composite wind and current analysis. They mention the...
Forum: Tech Log
4th Dec 2010, 06:38
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Hi Henra The close proximity of the...

Hi Henra



The close proximity of the bodies makes it less likely that they were subject to significant changes in current direction than if they had been widely separated. Changes in current...
Forum: Tech Log
4th Dec 2010, 05:48
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Hi DERG 1. I don't think that we know very...

Hi DERG

1. I don't think that we know very much about what really went wrong. We have a fair suspicion that the initial problem was with the pitot tubes. But we do not know this for certain - we...
Forum: Tech Log
3rd Dec 2010, 12:18
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

I am sure they did the best they could, but I...

I am sure they did the best they could, but I think we have to be careful assuming the aerial search would have found whatever was there to be seen. The effectiveness of the search would have been...
Forum: Tech Log
3rd Dec 2010, 10:55
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

I agree that is the general pattern. The obvious...

I agree that is the general pattern. The obvious problem is that there is no way of knowing exactly where these currents change - in either direction or magnitude.

However I think we agree that...
Forum: Tech Log
3rd Dec 2010, 03:10
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Sorry - I did miss that. I assumed you were...

Sorry - I did miss that. I assumed you were presenting data from the time of the accident. So ignore much of what I said. :\:\

What datum buoy information from the time (ie during the SAR phase)...
Forum: Tech Log
3rd Dec 2010, 02:21
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

mm43 I think we are furiously agreeing that...

mm43

I think we are furiously agreeing that the currents in this area are highly variable, and that any backtracking calculation will inevitably carry a large amount of uncertainty. Certainly the...
Forum: Tech Log
2nd Dec 2010, 22:33
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Hi mm43 As far as bodies are concerned, you...

Hi mm43

As far as bodies are concerned, you can largely ignore the wind. This will have minimal effect on a mostly submerged human body. The overwhelming majority of body drift will be due to...
Forum: Tech Log
2nd Dec 2010, 12:43
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Pick away JD. The Fernando de Noronha theory...

Pick away JD.

The Fernando de Noronha theory was Takata's explanation for his drift analysis. Takata assumed the current was constant from the time of impact. As such he plotted the crash site to...
Forum: Tech Log
2nd Dec 2010, 01:44
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Hi p51 There is no shortage of speculation....

Hi p51

There is no shortage of speculation. But there are also a few fairly hard facts. The best chance of finding AF447 is to find an explanation that unifies these few facts.

1. We have...
Forum: Tech Log
30th Nov 2010, 03:10
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Hopefully in the 8 months between phase 3 and 4,...

Hopefully in the 8 months between phase 3 and 4, those responsible have started from scratch. If there were some false assumptions and conclusions directing the earlier searches, then hopefully these...
Forum: Tech Log
29th Nov 2010, 13:00
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Look back at Takata's post #2050 on 21st June 10...

Look back at Takata's post #2050 on 21st June 10 in the original thread. The bodies are all clearly in a NS line drifting north over the period 6 through 10 June. Despite the surface current charts...
Forum: Tech Log
29th Nov 2010, 04:56
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

The problem with these surface current graphics...

The problem with these surface current graphics is that they don't seem to reconcile with what we see. These graphs show that the current was predominantly to the east (maybe NE) at 3 North . However...
Forum: Tech Log
28th Nov 2010, 08:59
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Surface drift

Thanks for this information mm43.

A few thoughts:
1. A human body in the water will drift with the water current much more so than it will be "blown" through the water by wind. Bodies are mostly...
Forum: Tech Log
12th Sep 2010, 13:55
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

JD Maybe some people did. We will...

JD



Maybe some people did. We will never know. But if a person restrained in a seat fitted a jacket and didn't inflate it, then their body would still have sunk with their seat.

I am not...
Forum: Tech Log
9th Sep 2010, 20:50
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Fair enough Griz. I understand where you are...

Fair enough Griz. I understand where you are coming from. I am not trying to argue how the injuries occurred - I obviously can't know. However I am trying to point out that we can't conclude anything...
Forum: Tech Log
9th Sep 2010, 12:36
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

IMHO, this stuff about seat belts and broken...

IMHO, this stuff about seat belts and broken bodies sliding out is all conjecture and probably irrelevant.

What is relevant is that the seats sink - occupied or not. The seat cushion alone can...
Forum: Tech Log
9th Sep 2010, 05:47
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

You could do this. And if so I would be...

You could do this. And if so I would be interested to learn the answer. Until then, here is my guess (and it is just a guess). The buckle flap won't simply fly open, at least not until you reach some...
Forum: Tech Log
9th Sep 2010, 04:07
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

No disrespect intended here. Over this thread I...

No disrespect intended here. Over this thread I have read a lot of your posts and learned a lot about radio and satellites etc. But there is some pretty poor science and plenty of vivid imagination...
Forum: Tech Log
9th Sep 2010, 02:18
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Almost certainly yes. As the body sinks, the gas...

Almost certainly yes. As the body sinks, the gas filled parts (ie lungs and gastrointestinal tract) will be compressed. The gas may or may not be expelled - doesn't really matter. But it must be...
Forum: Tech Log
9th Sep 2010, 00:54
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

I think the body would have flexed forward with...

I think the body would have flexed forward with impact - assuming it wasn't already as per brace position. There was some forwards movement which stopped with impact. I know we have been talking...
Forum: Tech Log
9th Sep 2010, 00:18
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Its a little hard to know for sure how the seat...

Its a little hard to know for sure how the seat belts will cope with these sort of excessive forces. They are designed to serve their purpose - to reduce injuries in a survivable crash, not to...
Forum: Tech Log
8th Sep 2010, 11:48
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

I wonder what the vertical descent rate really...

I wonder what the vertical descent rate really was. I think we will do better to estimate velocity and calculate a probable acceleration rather than the other way round.

I am sure the velocity...
Forum: Tech Log
8th Sep 2010, 05:00
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Thats my take on it Bear. Sudden and complete...

Thats my take on it Bear. Sudden and complete LOC.

Those strapped in were incapacitated, died at or before impact, and are still strapped in. Those not restrained could not get to a seat, nor don...
Forum: Tech Log
8th Sep 2010, 03:35
Replies: 3,893
Views: 1,544,051
Posted By slats11

Correct. Maybe I was not sufficiently clear in my...

Correct. Maybe I was not sufficiently clear in my earlier post.

Ejection seats will sometimes cause lumbar vertebral crush fractures but certainly not a fractured pelvis. Not in a young adult male...
Showing results 1 to 35 of 37
 
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