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Search: Posts Made By: Herman the Navigator
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Forum: Rumours & News
14th Jun 2011, 11:29
Replies: 43
Views: 13,872
Posted By Herman the Navigator

The difference in approach between London VAAC...

The difference in approach between London VAAC and (say) Washington VAAC is still there. London is still using the same NAME model and setting hard limits, rather than allowing any interpretation of...
Forum: Rumours & News
14th Jun 2011, 10:13
Replies: 43
Views: 13,872
Posted By Herman the Navigator

So, London VAAC don't use forecaster judgement...

So, London VAAC don't use forecaster judgement and Washington VAAC do (and have done for several years). Where is your evidence of damaged aircraft and engines in the Washington VAAC AOR, to back up...
Forum: Rumours & News
14th Jun 2011, 09:27
Replies: 43
Views: 13,872
Posted By Herman the Navigator

No one has ever said that volcanic ash is...

No one has ever said that volcanic ash is imaginary; just that London VAAC/UKMO forecasts have included vast areas where the ash densities are so low and the particles so fine that neither engine...
Forum: Rumours & News
7th Jun 2011, 19:46
Replies: 43
Views: 13,872
Posted By Herman the Navigator

Is Mount Pleasant closed or is Timmy stuck in...

Is Mount Pleasant closed or is Timmy stuck in Ascension?

I just ask because I tried plotting the ash cloud position given by Buenos Aires VAAC last night, based on the text advisories they're...
Forum: Rumours & News
6th Jun 2011, 21:02
Replies: 43
Views: 13,872
Posted By Herman the Navigator

Lots of ash in Bariloche then. Just as there was...

Lots of ash in Bariloche then. Just as there was right next door to the volcanoes in Iceland and Redoubt and....

If that much ash is falling out of the air next door to the volcano, how much is...
Forum: Rumours & News
6th Jun 2011, 19:54
Replies: 43
Views: 13,872
Posted By Herman the Navigator

The latest METAR I could find for San Carlos de...

The latest METAR I could find for San Carlos de Bariloche says:

SAZS 061800Z 32007KT 1000 VA VV/// 07/04 Q1012

So, they do have an ash problem. However, as the airfield is 53 nm from the...
Forum: Rumours & News
31st May 2011, 14:11
Replies: 299
Views: 102,070
Posted By Herman the Navigator

It seems the regulators and forecasters have...

It seems the regulators and forecasters have known that a problem was coming for quite some time. Found this paper last night:

Comparison of VAAC atmospheric dispersion models using the 1...
Forum: Rumours & News
30th May 2011, 13:10
Replies: 299
Views: 102,070
Posted By Herman the Navigator

Thanks KBPsen! This only covers the 2 mg limit...

Thanks KBPsen! This only covers the 2 mg limit though:

"The manufacturers were clear that although they were content that 2x10-3g/m3 represented a tolerable density level for their products, any...
Forum: Rumours & News
26th May 2011, 14:14
Replies: 299
Views: 102,070
Posted By Herman the Navigator

cuthere, I'm quite well aware that the models...

cuthere, I'm quite well aware that the models have a significant degree of inaccuracy. And I wasn't suggesting that the Norwegian model is necessarily more accurate. It's more the fact that by...
Forum: Rumours & News
26th May 2011, 08:26
Replies: 299
Views: 102,070
Posted By Herman the Navigator

Have we touched a raw nerve?:) My argument...

Have we touched a raw nerve?:)

My argument for a more detailed contour plot was that it would allow those who wish to to make a safety case for areas where concentrations are >4mg per m3. At...
Forum: Rumours & News
26th May 2011, 08:12
Replies: 299
Views: 102,070
Posted By Herman the Navigator

Good! So, what happens now? Do the regulators...

Good! So, what happens now? Do the regulators just shrug their shoulders and say, "nothing more for us to do". Or will they take very positive action to get a proper resolution? Or will the...
Forum: Rumours & News
26th May 2011, 07:32
Replies: 299
Views: 102,070
Posted By Herman the Navigator

Brilliant, thanks wetfeet! I think this...

Brilliant, thanks wetfeet!

I think this conclusively shows that it's actually very straightforward to draw detailed contour plots (and that 1970s style arguments about computing power are a bit...
Forum: Rumours & News
25th May 2011, 13:39
Replies: 299
Views: 102,070
Posted By Herman the Navigator

Er, only part right... Ensuring that their...

Er, only part right... Ensuring that their respective airlines don't have a high profile safety incident/accident, which sends passengers scurrying to another airline is also a very big part of...
Forum: Tech Log
27th Apr 2011, 20:01
Replies: 14
Views: 2,508
Posted By Herman the Navigator

Thank you! This is by far the best technical...

Thank you! This is by far the best technical critique I've seen - and, no, I hadn't seen it before.

Interesting to note that the density difference between known flameout conditions and the final...
Forum: Tech Log
27th Apr 2011, 17:19
Replies: 14
Views: 2,508
Posted By Herman the Navigator

Quote: Indeed, why did the industry fail to...

Quote:
Indeed, why did the industry fail to plan for this, given it was so widely predicted and expected and a legal requirement. You will notice that non of the company officials affected have been...
Forum: Tech Log
27th Apr 2011, 15:05
Replies: 14
Views: 2,508
Posted By Herman the Navigator

Dani/Lomapaseo I couldn't agree more - the...

Dani/Lomapaseo

I couldn't agree more - the whole thing hinges on the concentration/density (call it what you will) of the ash.

Saying that a report "looks scientific enough to be accepted" is...
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