"Pilotless airliners safer" - London Times article
jimjim 1
Isn't it a fact that if the median wage is £24,000 pa., or let's call it "X", then there will be many more than half of the workforce on less than "X" & only a relatively few "Higher Earners" on "X+".
Ie, if the average is "X" that does not mean that half of wage earners receive above "X" & half below "X". Rather, it means that far more are below "X" in order to weight the average down to "X".
Or, to put it another way, 1 person earning 100,000 & 14 persons earning 20,000 gives you an average pay of £25,333.
A ratio of 14:1 !
Isn't it a fact that if the median wage is £24,000 pa., or let's call it "X", then there will be many more than half of the workforce on less than "X" & only a relatively few "Higher Earners" on "X+".
Ie, if the average is "X" that does not mean that half of wage earners receive above "X" & half below "X". Rather, it means that far more are below "X" in order to weight the average down to "X".
Or, to put it another way, 1 person earning 100,000 & 14 persons earning 20,000 gives you an average pay of £25,333.
A ratio of 14:1 !
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I would not want to fly on an aircraft not piloted by human beings up front. It's quite illogical to take that stance but I feel that is the way most people feel. Earlier today I asked 8 people I was having drinks with, all currently or previously involved in some way aviation.
They all said 'no way'.
I think there is a lot of resistance to overcome before this becomes commercial reality for passenger carrying aircraft.
They all said 'no way'.
I think there is a lot of resistance to overcome before this becomes commercial reality for passenger carrying aircraft.
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Computers are not capable of anticipating more than 3 seconds ahead which is why pilotless airplanes will never happen. And Im pretty sure management is the biggest airliner expense after fuel!
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Direct Law
@BBK, exactly. One of the enduring lessons from AF447 is that of a sophistacted automation system giving up & dropping out; leaving the remaining people in a worse off situation than had the automation never been provided. Any fully autonomus system must be failure hardened to orders of magnitude greater than currently economic (note i didnt say possible..)
More automation will come, it allows aircraft to operate more efficiently over more direct routes and at optimum altitudes, but the economics of pilotless aircraft are a very long way away.
More automation will come, it allows aircraft to operate more efficiently over more direct routes and at optimum altitudes, but the economics of pilotless aircraft are a very long way away.
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Funny coz, AF477, actually, proved that automation did not work at first...
but one thing I am sure :
the day, the automation will be less expensive than pilots, then for sure they will replace them.
it's all about money... not about pscyhology of passengers, safety or any others "excuses".
but one thing I am sure :
the day, the automation will be less expensive than pilots, then for sure they will replace them.
it's all about money... not about pscyhology of passengers, safety or any others "excuses".
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Drake`s Golden Hinde weighed in at 300T displacement with a crew complement of 80 men.
Today a ultra large crude carrier weighs in at 440,000DWT and has a crew of 20-30. The biggest container carrier is 18000TEU with a 165,000DWT and a crew of 13.
We all know that given the economies of scale offered by wide bodied aircraft the maginificent Concorde was a still birth, but kept alive more for political reasons than anything else.
We all know why the Titanic and Costa Concordia went down.
In a world driven by commercial exigencies there can be no room for romanticism. I am afraid the future will be dictated by bankers and financiers, as it always has been and will always be.
Today a ultra large crude carrier weighs in at 440,000DWT and has a crew of 20-30. The biggest container carrier is 18000TEU with a 165,000DWT and a crew of 13.
We all know that given the economies of scale offered by wide bodied aircraft the maginificent Concorde was a still birth, but kept alive more for political reasons than anything else.
We all know why the Titanic and Costa Concordia went down.
In a world driven by commercial exigencies there can be no room for romanticism. I am afraid the future will be dictated by bankers and financiers, as it always has been and will always be.
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Passengerless airliners safer - Daily Telegraph
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...0_interior.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...0_interior.jpg
Reverse engineering brains
@mg23
I'm guessing that, when it eventually happens, it won't come from humans developing software, but from scanning humans brains and simulating them in software.
I'm guessing that, when it eventually happens, it won't come from humans developing software, but from scanning humans brains and simulating them in software.
I don't understand it myself of course but he is quite a convincing character, essentially being an engineer. I have been watching few hours of his stuff on youtube:-) He has not yet set of my bulls**t detector.
The big thing that is very, very hard to grasp is that the rate of development of new stuff is accelerating and that there is no end in sight to that acceleration. Setting aside for the moment the religion of peace of course.
More Kurzweil.
Once upon a time ... not too long ago, certainly in my youth .... lifts had human beings employed to open and close metal gates and to press buttons to set in place the machinery necessary for the lift to move between floors.
This is now a bygone era, and may well make younger members of this forum snigger at the very idea.
So maybe, just maybe, the idea of a plane flight with no human on the flight deck is not so far-fetched after all ...
This is now a bygone era, and may well make younger members of this forum snigger at the very idea.
So maybe, just maybe, the idea of a plane flight with no human on the flight deck is not so far-fetched after all ...
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So maybe, just maybe, the idea of a plane flight with no human on the flight deck is not so far-fetched after all ...
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But spacecraft don't have to fly in bad weather, or in a sky crowded with other aircraft. Replacing pilots in those conditions won't happen any time soon, just like cars driving themselves around a race track doesn't mean driverless cars are coming to the High Street any time soon. They'll begin with better and better adaptive cruise control on the highways, and progress from there, rather than suddenly appearing in the car showrooms with no steering wheel.
I was watching a DVD a while back with old documentaries about the postal service and banks, showing how money moved from one account to another when you mailed a cheque. The number of people involved in that process, from collecting the mail to updating the bank records, was enormous, compared to the number now required to make an online payment.
UPS has said they plan to start flying pilot less freighters on transpacific routes by 2025. This will pave the way to automated ground controlled flights with a "safety" pilot to take over if something goes wrong which will eventually lead to the elimination of any pilots.
It is inevitable, the only question is when. My guess by 2035 it will be the norm for long haul over ocean and by 2040 it will be the norm for all sched airlines.
As for passenger reluctance, dream on. If the pilotless airline is 10 dollars cheaper than the one with pilots, their airplanes will be full and the other one will fire the pilots or go bankrupt.......
It is inevitable, the only question is when. My guess by 2035 it will be the norm for long haul over ocean and by 2040 it will be the norm for all sched airlines.
As for passenger reluctance, dream on. If the pilotless airline is 10 dollars cheaper than the one with pilots, their airplanes will be full and the other one will fire the pilots or go bankrupt.......
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But you're right, cargo is likely to be where it happens first. Just like trucks are likely to be where driverless vehicles first appear on the highways, running between truckstops outside cities.
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pilotless airplanes will never happen. First of all if its a computer controlled from the ground it can be hacked and someone else can take over control. The pentagon hasnt even figured out a way to stop hackers getting into their servers you reckon some low cost airline whos trying to save 10 bucks is going to figure it out? naaaaah id definitely call their bluff on this one!
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I guess in many ways I'm being overly philosophical here. Do forgive me, I just can't see a way for man to design a level of judgement and wisdom that exceeds his own (those that do have clearly been brainwashed by Hollywood) and it's for that reason I don't believe it will ever be a better solution overall. Yes ultimately everything will be judged by safety statistics and given a human brain vs computer brain performing repetitive tasks, 99% of the time the computer will win for obvious reasons but that 1% will forever haunt.
If this is the argument for automation then it should be the same argument for computers running the rest of our lives. An automation bubble will form one day very soon where we discover we have very little to live for if computers are doing everything. What is it that makes this world go around at the end of the day? It is the ability to do something someone else can't or won't whilst taking financial reward in the process. What worth will we have as humans if we can't do anything? We certainly can't rely on the state for help! The automation bubble will burst and it will probably burst long before pilotless airliners are a reality. Automation is making great strides in every sector, what's to say the whole idea of flying from one part of the world to another will still be around by then?
If this is the argument for automation then it should be the same argument for computers running the rest of our lives. An automation bubble will form one day very soon where we discover we have very little to live for if computers are doing everything. What is it that makes this world go around at the end of the day? It is the ability to do something someone else can't or won't whilst taking financial reward in the process. What worth will we have as humans if we can't do anything? We certainly can't rely on the state for help! The automation bubble will burst and it will probably burst long before pilotless airliners are a reality. Automation is making great strides in every sector, what's to say the whole idea of flying from one part of the world to another will still be around by then?
Last edited by Superpilot; 1st Dec 2014 at 21:57.
"The myth of A.I.": Jaron Lanier
The Myth Of AI | Edge.org
Jaron Lanier may not have "invented the electric piano" but he knows a thing or two on the subject of what computers are and aren't capable of.
Jaron Lanier may not have "invented the electric piano" but he knows a thing or two on the subject of what computers are and aren't capable of.
London's Docklands Light Railway has been driverless since it opened in 1987 and in 2013 carried 101 Million people, its accident rate is way way less than rest of London Underground with drivers attached.
UK's Rail Network uses GPS to decide what door needs to be opened and at which station because simply drivers couldn't cope with the sheer variety of station platforms sizes and door which need opening. There is a manual facility in event GPS goes down but rarely used.
I see Pilotless airlines within 20 years and also believe after initial scepticism they will be accepted.
There is the weather issue but believe that Fuel use will allow airlines to slow and wait outside of weather cells with fuel economy better than current position and closer to other airlines also waiting.
It just has an inevitability about it where computers do the work and humans become drones always at leisure.
UK's Rail Network uses GPS to decide what door needs to be opened and at which station because simply drivers couldn't cope with the sheer variety of station platforms sizes and door which need opening. There is a manual facility in event GPS goes down but rarely used.
I see Pilotless airlines within 20 years and also believe after initial scepticism they will be accepted.
There is the weather issue but believe that Fuel use will allow airlines to slow and wait outside of weather cells with fuel economy better than current position and closer to other airlines also waiting.
It just has an inevitability about it where computers do the work and humans become drones always at leisure.
Avoid imitations
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"Ladies and gentlemen, this is a recorded message. Welcome on board this fully automated, pilotless aircraft. We understand that some of you might be feeling a little nervous about this potentially ground breaking, new era of aviation. Please be assured, nothing can go wrong. The aircraft has a full backup facility in case anything should go wrong......go wrong......go wrong.... BEEP!".
"Ladies and gentlemen, we appear to have a minor problem. Our main flight computers seem to have frozen. The backup facility will now be initiated. Could the passenger in seat number A1 open the small panel on the wall directly above the entertainment screen and press CONTROL, ALT, DELETE."
"Ladies and gentlemen, we appear to have a minor problem. Our main flight computers seem to have frozen. The backup facility will now be initiated. Could the passenger in seat number A1 open the small panel on the wall directly above the entertainment screen and press CONTROL, ALT, DELETE."
Some people are mentioning the light rail systems as being driverless. Fair enough but these are highly constrained systems and if all else fails they can apply the brakes and stop.
Any plans to go driverless on high speed trains? No? well I wonder why. Anyone want to be in a high speed train without a driver on board.
Back to aviation how about an automated airliner into that free for all known as JFK. Reckon the software can cope with a Canarsie with the ubiquitous tailwind. Ninety degrees off the runway and about 200 feet below profile. Over to you HAL!
Never say never I suppose. Of course some of you have mentioned freighters and it's not like they ever have technical problems like fires on board that would knock out the automation.
How about the cost of the datalink you'd need. Real time and in the middle of the ocean. After all, lose an engine and you need to react very quickly so what's the cost of satellite comms to facilitate that. It's not that I don't think that it's feasible to remotely fly an airliner but just that the resources involved would be MORE than that currently required by having a suitably trained crew. What the FAA and CAA have recognised is that the human is actually more important not less so hence the encouragement to hand fly where possible.
Any plans to go driverless on high speed trains? No? well I wonder why. Anyone want to be in a high speed train without a driver on board.
Back to aviation how about an automated airliner into that free for all known as JFK. Reckon the software can cope with a Canarsie with the ubiquitous tailwind. Ninety degrees off the runway and about 200 feet below profile. Over to you HAL!
Never say never I suppose. Of course some of you have mentioned freighters and it's not like they ever have technical problems like fires on board that would knock out the automation.
How about the cost of the datalink you'd need. Real time and in the middle of the ocean. After all, lose an engine and you need to react very quickly so what's the cost of satellite comms to facilitate that. It's not that I don't think that it's feasible to remotely fly an airliner but just that the resources involved would be MORE than that currently required by having a suitably trained crew. What the FAA and CAA have recognised is that the human is actually more important not less so hence the encouragement to hand fly where possible.
Anyone who has flown a large jet on the line for a decade or more knows this guy has a wicked case of cranial rectal inversion.
There isn't a 3 day trip I've flown that didn't involve "saving" automation systems from situations which they couldn't handle. That's just the tip of the iceberg.
50 years? Maybe. Big Maybe. Someday in the far future, well of course. In the meantime this clown, while perhaps being an expert at the automation of pianos, has only demonstrated his complete lack of knowledge of daily line operations and what pilots do everyday to make aviation the safest form of transportation.
There isn't a 3 day trip I've flown that didn't involve "saving" automation systems from situations which they couldn't handle. That's just the tip of the iceberg.
50 years? Maybe. Big Maybe. Someday in the far future, well of course. In the meantime this clown, while perhaps being an expert at the automation of pianos, has only demonstrated his complete lack of knowledge of daily line operations and what pilots do everyday to make aviation the safest form of transportation.