5 APUs captain

2 RockShock:

The MAK release says you WHAT HAS HAPPENED only with all the details.

Other questions about ATC - that's question to the Prosecutor, and it will be ANOTHER investigation, just for...

RegDep

Thanks Kulverstukas, that clarifies part of my question.

My understanding was that there were some expectations that the Poles will publish some data from (some?) ATC-related recordings obtained elsewhere than the Russian authorities (e.g. SadPole's post on 14 Jan). Did something come out, and if yes, what? Anyone from Poland?

Kulverstukas

RegDep As I understand, Poles doesn't have anything that Rissan side doesn't have. They just claim that they will publish full transcript from all available tapes in ATC tower (1.11.7 of report), which Russians doesn't want to publish.

Also, they insist on geting information from mobile operators and ground lines which, as I think, MAK or doesn't posses or can't publish because of law restrictions.

BTW, MAK doesn't insist on full transcript of sattelite calls from plane and avoided to publish content of one mentioned in Report.

Kulverstukas

Also, I want to stress one thing: MAK isn't law enforcement agency nor it is police investigation body. It's just body of experts, which makes conclusion in terms "which event, action, modus operandi, equipment was cause or contribution to disaster and which one - not".

So lack of simulator training - yes.
Busting minima - yes.
etc.
Wrong lights, broken videorecorder, etc - no.

RegDep

Thanks Kulverstukas again.

It seems then, that the Poles have obtained the ATC transcripts that MAK refused to hand over to them at the time of handing over the report for commenting (see http://www.mak.ru/russian/investigat.../decision.pdf; one can scroll down for English version).

So we'll wait.

Kulverstukas

15.01.2011

State commission to investigate the causes of the Tu-154 plane crash, headed by Prime Minister V.Putin, finished it's work.

All materials will be handed over to State Investigaton Comitee of RF.

Alice025

As I understood what's in the tapes that MAK doesnt want to publish as part of the report, and which Polish experts were let to listen to and made "extracts of") - is the talk between two Russians, the ground controller who did most of the talk with the plane, and one more, who interferes once? twice? Need to watch the video restauration of the flight again.

It is clear from that youtube video that it wasn't one ground controller who spoke with the plane, but that there were two of them, and it is marked who says what.

And, apparently, the talk was a dispute between these two, one was of the mind to prohibit them everything, no 500 metres, forget about 100 metres, to send them off away to the spare airport at once. And the other one interferred, spoke with the plane, and allowed that "trial" descend.

I think what Polish sides plans to prove by having this talk published as part of the report, the gist of it, is that - as minimum one of the controllers - thought that he has a right to close the airport for weather.
And, consequently "if ground control thought his duty is to prohibit landing - why does MAK insist it was not within the controller's power?"

Alice025

Also, may be, the fact that controllers were scared after IL exercises over their shed, when they swore when on the second attempt the IL missed the runway, ended up to the left side of it. Following the first IL attempt when it also missed the runway but on the right side of it. Poles who were on the ground said IL's wing was 4-5 metres from the runway when it turned away off sharply when it missed the runway the first time.

Like, that the controllers knew, after IL's attempts, that it is not working out that morning, and still didn't prohibit the President's plane to attempt doing the same.

RegDep

Thank you 5 APUs captain, Kulverstukas and Alice.

Now it is clear even to me what is to be read from the MAK report (what should be read by the Polish public, too, from the MAK report) and what is to be left to the next instance, the Prosecutor's Office, to handle. Those two should not be allowed to become intermixed.

Best regards
Reg

dvv

The report implies no such thing. On the contrary, it states that the conditions worsened below the lowest minima the airfield had to offer with the implication that the aircraft wouldn't be able to complete any approach at all.

Alice025

RegDep,
I read at Echo of Moscow site that MAK report is a summary, and to accompany it there are 64 tomes o of gathered material, interviews, records, tests, various papers. That will become food for criminal (law) investigation cases, opened in both Russia and in Poland (separately in each country), because of death of people.
So, one would expect, a lot of more things will surface up later on. At the moment the bargaining goes only about what of it should have been included into the MAK (aviation) summary as meaningful.

janeczku

According to the report, the FMS doesnt provide vertical control signal. As the autopilot was engaged in pitch-channel until the last seconds, the crew must have absolutely entered the pitch manually into the ABSU sometime at the start of the final descent. The report argues that the crew switched to autopilot pitch channel by using the "DESCENT-CLIMB" wheel at 9km from RWT.

Yet, there is no FDR data that supports this nor are there any callouts relative to that on the CVR.

How do they come to that conclusion?

SadPole

Quote:

My understanding was that there were some expectations that the Poles will publish some data from (some?) ATC-related recordings obtained elsewhere than the Russian authorities (e.g. SadPole's post on 14 Jan). Did something come out, and if yes, what? Anyone from Poland?

First I heard, they were supposed to publish it yesterday. Now they say, they will publish it next week. It might be that they will not publish/pursue it at all as some sane people are in the process of explaining to them just how silly the whole idea is. I don't mean publishing the recordings is silly, personally, I want everything published, I hope someone does that to finally put an end to all the conspiracy theories. What is silly is the idea that they are pursuing.

Now, I will tell you what that idea is, but you have to promise that you won't laugh. What is established at this point for sure is that after the two attempted landings (near crashes) of IL-76 the ATCs are… less than enthusiastic about any more planes trying to land. At least one person at the tower wants to shut down the airport altogether, but they are not sure if they can do it on their own authority. And so, they call "Moscow" and they find out that it is for (I quote) "International Number 1" to decide. And somehow that "International Number 1" decides and they allow the Tu-154 to attempt landing, thus proving that someone wanted that plane to crash or at the very least that the ATCs actions were as compromised by the politics same as the PICs actions.

So now, the big question is who that "International Number 1" is and to try to solve that puzzle they got some spooks involved. (See where it is going yet?). Now, that is actually a funny task as they FIRED all the Polish military spooks after they decided that since way too many of them had at least some training in Soviet Union they were damaged goods. Anyway, they are HOPING that they will uncover that this "International Number 1" is some big FSB boss in charge of the dirty work, you see. What's even dumber is the fact that they discuss these plans openly in all the media.

The enthusiasm of the followers of that story got a little cold shower when one of those "damaged goods" ex military spooks pointed out that "International number 1" might actually be… the shorthand (their early informal call sign) for Polish-Air-Force 1-0-1 (aka the Tu-154 that crashed). As in – it is for Kaczynski to decide if he wants to try to land or not.

Nothing would crash Kaczynski supporters' ego more than the realization that FSB didn't even care if Kaczynski came or didn't, and so the FSB never even assigned anyone to oversee the visit. Still, the end result would be something like this: "How DARE you not assign FSB to handle the visit??? Maybe if you did, the plane would not try to land." And so, the games continue.

The only thing that keeps me sane is knowing that it isn’t only Poland that has stupid politicians.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGBjj3mxrSY

Kulverstukas

janeczku as far as I can understand, they (he) used autothrottle and flaps for descent control.

Somewhere in other forums I saw that it was "invention" of 39th ex-commander who taught that for all his pilots.

PS SadPole, can you make some short resume from this "new point of view":

Decyzja dowódcy: 'Odchodzimy' - 22 sekundy przed uderzeniem w ziemi?

SadPole

janeczku

This graphics (sorry in Polish) best explains the whole situation and it is said to be based on all the Flight Data Recorder data.

It shows the ATC regularly (every 13 seconds) giving his readouts and shows how it was possible that all those ATC (on-course, op-path) calls were correct if 13 second interval is all what the equipment allowed him to do or what he could do. To me, this proves that the pilots were increasing the rate of descend as a result of passing the valley (which made them think they were too high). Then, then the up-slope started, all of the sudden their perceived (RA-based) descend rate became about 4 times higher than a moment earlier.

It is hard to nit-pick any more at what was done. The only thing that can be argued is WHY.

dvv

janeczku, the FDR data indicating the pitch channel being engaged are clearly there — note the red dotted line annotated "AFCS pitch channel ON" at the top of Figure 24 on page 69 of the English translation of the report.

SadPole

Kulverstukas

I must admit, I have not seen these news before.

In short, they say, the analysis of the CVR in Poland revealed that the PIC gave the Go Around command at 100 meters (long before 2nd pilot doing the same), but that command seemed to not have been assertive enough and so it got somehow ignored (a what????).

If this is true, it would support my theory (voiced a few posts back) on what went on in the last seconds.


Meaning, PIC says "go-around" which is sort of a question he expects Blasik to answer but Blasik does not aswer.

janeczku

My question remains: When did they set the pitch rate into the autopilot?

Could it be this?:

dvv

janeczku, the pitch angle was set for descent with the up/down wheel at approx. 10:39:55.

criss

Watching the reconstruction gives much better perspective than reading the transcript. Although you can read the timeline in transcript, only when you watch it, you realize how fast it unfold. From the callout "100" to "20" it's only 5 seconds, numbers from 80 to 20 are read with single breath. There was almost no time for any action, especially with hesitation. So it's quite possible, that they in fact didn't intend to bust the minima, and as earlier discussed between them, planned to go around from 100m, but later botched it due to several reasons:

1. They descended to wrong 100m - radio height, not baro height, so they were lower, giving them less time.

2. Excessive descent rate.

3. Incorrect way in which they tried to go around.

Given where they in fact were at the "100" callout, and their descent rate (add to that engines at idle), even if doing everything correctly, it would be difficult to go around. Add to it just a tad of hesitation what to do, and you're doomed.